[AEON] Aeon Speculation

[chennan]

For 8 months the issue was 1100 coins. Max supply marked at 18,4 million coins. That is for 8 months 6% of volume was mined. Given a meager sales volumes, but a large drawdowns, I conclude that Aeon emission is too large and don't give the price to hold at high values.
For example, during the same period, less than 2% BTC was mined.

Yes 1.1 million AEON was mined in last 8 months. What was not that huge, was way more in first 3 years. But emision is drastically slowing down. There will be way less mined in next 8 months. and then even less in additional 8 months.


Actually in last 8 months 750k BTC was mined. So is not that much off actually.   Bitcoin emision increased 4.4% in last 8 months. AEON emision increased 7% in last 8 months.  That is a difference but not drastic. And AEON will catch BTC before next BTC halving for sure.

What’s more intriguing is the fact that there is the 18.6(?) limit of coins plus tail emission to account for with both AEON and Monero. So you can compare the emissions with both BTC and AEON/XMR, but you must keep in mind that 18.6 mil cap.

What will happen to the coin when the supply reaches the limit?
Will the Aeon network able process transactions without miners?

I understand that this isn't the new question, and it's relevant for any POW-coin. Where I can read reflections on this?

Yeah that’s what the tail emission is for. With Bitcoins supply limit, the theory is is that people will be able to compensate the miners enough through only fees to have their txs included in blocks they mine... for XMR/AEON they have a steady 3 (I think) “tail emission” that goes on forever after the hard limit of (I think) 18.6 million coins have been mined.

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[Febo]

For 8 months the issue was 1100 coins. Max supply marked at 18,4 million coins. That is for 8 months 6% of volume was mined. Given a meager sales volumes, but a large drawdowns, I conclude that Aeon emission is too large and don't give the price to hold at high values.
For example, during the same period, less than 2% BTC was mined.

Yes 1.1 million AEON was mined in last 8 months. What was not that huge, was way more in first 3 years. But emision is drastically slowing down. There will be way less mined in next 8 months. and then even less in additional 8 months.


Actually in last 8 months 750k BTC was mined. So is not that much off actually.   Bitcoin emision increased 4.4% in last 8 months. AEON emision increased 7% in last 8 months.  That is a difference but not drastic. And AEON will catch BTC before next BTC halving for sure.

What’s more intriguing is the fact that there is the 18.6(?) limit of coins plus tail emission to account for with both AEON and Monero. So you can compare the emissions with both BTC and AEON/XMR, but you must keep in mind that 18.6 mil cap.

What will happen to the coin when the supply reaches the limit?
Will the Aeon network able process transactions without miners?

I understand that this isn't the new question, and it's relevant for any POW-coin. Where I can read reflections on this?

With this fork that comes now with rebase we will also add tail emision. So when we reach 18.6 millions coin I think will be in 2024, there will be small tail emision in every block to prevent that network will ever get out of miner reward. What will eventually happen in Bitcoin and most other PoW coins.


@bbc.reporter

I dont know if AEON is big enough tat anyone built ASICS for it.  In future since developers said they will fight ASICS with changing mining algorithm I am sure no one will even plan doing one in future.   It is just unneded risk. They will rather focus in coins where developers dont care about ASIC mining. There are plenty such coins.

[SparkIt]

With this fork that comes now with rebase we will also add tail emision. So when we reach 18.6 millions coin I think will be in 2024, there will be small tail emision in every block to prevent that network will ever get out of miner reward. What will eventually happen in Bitcoin and most other PoW coins.

Thank You! This is really necessary.

I dont know if AEON is big enough tat anyone built ASICS for it.  In future since developers said they will fight ASICS with changing mining algorithm I am sure no one will even plan doing one in future.   It is just unneded risk. They will rather focus in coins where developers dont care about ASIC mining. There are plenty such coins.

Today I read that after the fork, Bitmain were forced to reduce the price by 5 times for these ASICs. This is definitely a business failure.

[bbc.reporter]

@Febo. But there already are ASICs for Aeon. Bitmain's miners can be configured to mine cryptonight light if what I heard is correct.

Then if miners find it profitable to mine Aeon then that's where they will go.

Also, remember the sudden increase in hashrate last year? That might not be botnets, but Bitmain.

[jwinterm]

@Febo. But there already are ASICs for Aeon. Bitmain's miners can be configured to mine cryptonight light if what I heard is correct.

Then if miners find it profitable to mine Aeon then that's where they will go.

Also, remember the sudden increase in hashrate last year? That might not be botnets, but Bitmain.

Not sure about Bitmain, but Baikal I'm pretty sure.

[SparkIt]

Over the past week, the complexity has shown mixed dynamics. At beginning of the week was a significant reduction. Is it was mass return to Monero?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-difficulty.html#6m

[smooth]

Over the past week, the complexity has shown mixed dynamics. At beginning of the week was a significant reduction. Is it was mass return to Monero?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-difficulty.html#6m

For a while it become more profitable than ETH and ZEC, which brought over some miners. It seems to have reach a somewhat steady state for now at about 450 MH.

[kimtaek]

I am mining AEON coin using the minergate using CPU mining only. I hope that AEON coin will be more profitable as for now mining with AEON coin is not profitable so I have to stop mining.

[Febo]

I am mining AEON coin using the minergate using CPU mining only. I hope that AEON coin will be more profitable as for now mining with AEON coin is not profitable so I have to stop mining.

You should try mining it with some other miner then minergate., Many people had bad experiences with minergate. Getting less hash or not getting paid.

[platzdubble]

I am mining AEON coin using the minergate using CPU mining only. I hope that AEON coin will be more profitable as for now mining with AEON coin is not profitable so I have to stop mining.

Yeah Minergate are known scammers who will skim hashes

[SparkIt]

Hi!

I studied the formula of calculation the Block reward:

(M−A) / (2¹⁸) / (10¹²) where M = 2⁶⁴ −1 and A = supply mined to date.^[3]

Input data:
Total Supply (2⁶⁴ −1): 18 446 744
Block time: 240 seconds
Blocks per day: 360


The results posted in the main AEON topic.  Click to go to the post

[smooth]

After that moment the reward will be negligible and will continue to decrease endlessly.

There is a minimum that will be reached and then it won't decline any more (though since it is a fixed amount, it will become a smaller and smaller percentage over time). This has been discussed numerous times and we eventually decided on keeping the same emission rate as Monero, as it has been since the beginning. So the fixed amount will be 0.3 per minute, but with 4 minute blocks that ends up being 1.2 AEON per block.

Also, please don't double post the exact same thing to both threads.

[jwinterm]

After that moment the reward will be negligible and will continue to decrease endlessly.

There is a minimum that will be reached and then it won't decline any more (though since it is a fixed amount, it will become a smaller and smaller percentage over time). This has been discussed numerous times and we eventually decided on keeping the same emission rate as Monero, as it has been since the beginning. So the fixed amount will be 0.3 per minute, but with 4 minute blocks that ends up being 1.2 AEON per block.

Also, please don't double post the exact same thing to both threads.

How was the amount for Monero chosen? Is it a function of fees per tx and number of txs that will fit in the block? Since the block is dynamic does the 0.3 per minute put an effective max block size on the system?

[smooth]

After that moment the reward will be negligible and will continue to decrease endlessly.

There is a minimum that will be reached and then it won't decline any more (though since it is a fixed amount, it will become a smaller and smaller percentage over time). This has been discussed numerous times and we eventually decided on keeping the same emission rate as Monero, as it has been since the beginning. So the fixed amount will be 0.3 per minute, but with 4 minute blocks that ends up being 1.2 AEON per block.

Also, please don't double post the exact same thing to both threads.

How was the amount for Monero chosen?

It was chosen as a round number a little below 1%

Is it a function of fees per tx and number of txs that will fit in the block? Since the block is dynamic does the 0.3 per minute put an effective max block size on the system?

No, the fees scale with the block size.

[SparkIt]

After that moment the reward will be negligible and will continue to decrease endlessly.

There is a minimum that will be reached and then it won't decline any more (though since it is a fixed amount, it will become a smaller and smaller percentage over time). This has been discussed numerous times and we eventually decided on keeping the same emission rate as Monero, as it has been since the beginning. So the fixed amount will be 0.3 per minute, but with 4 minute blocks that ends up being 1.2 AEON per block.

Thank You for important comment! I corrected my conclusion.

Also, please don't double post the exact same thing to both threads.

I apologize for the duplication, was a little excited. Fixed.

[bbc.reporter]

Chart update.

Aeon is still trading under the longterm trendlines which happens occasionally. But the upsetting part for me is, this time, it is below the lower trendline for a longer period of time than usual. Also, the volume has not changed substantially to be considered that interest is going up for the project.

In any case, hold on to what you have but I would not be adding more for now. I have lowered my bids to under 15k satoshis hehehe.

[SparkIt]

Chart update.

Aeon is still trading under the longterm trendlines which happens occasionally. But the upsetting part for me is, this time, it is below the lower trendline for a longer period of time than usual. Also, the volume has not changed substantially to be considered that interest is going up for the project.

In any case, hold on to what you have but I would not be adding more for now. I have lowered my bids to under 15k satoshis hehehe.

I can't agree with You about 15k. I will not deny the significance of the levels on the chart, but at the bottom it is the fundamental analysis that plays a big role.

The complexity is at a historical high, and the cost price also increased as never before. At me at an equivalent capacity mining has fallen in 8 times from that moment as I started to mine Aeon.  Therefore sell for 15K satoshis there is no sense.

[Febo]

Aeon is still trading under the longterm trendlines which happens occasionally. But the upsetting part for me is, this time, it is below the lower trendline for a longer period of time than usual. Also, the volume has not changed substantially to be considered that interest is going up for the project.

Those lines need an update. You have different datas then you had months ago when you draw those lines. Now use all datas you have now and draw new lines.

[SparkIt]

Aeon is still trading under the longterm trendlines which happens occasionally. But the upsetting part for me is, this time, it is below the lower trendline for a longer period of time than usual. Also, the volume has not changed substantially to be considered that interest is going up for the project.

Those lines need an update. You have different datas then you had months ago when you draw those lines. Now use all datas you have now and draw new lines.

By the way, yes. Would venture to draw that line if I may.. 

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[bbc.reporter]

Aeon is still trading under the longterm trendlines which happens occasionally. But the upsetting part for me is, this time, it is below the lower trendline for a longer period of time than usual. Also, the volume has not changed substantially to be considered that interest is going up for the project.

Those lines need an update. You have different datas then you had months ago when you draw those lines. Now use all datas you have now and draw new lines.

Yes but I reckon we cannot be subjective about Aeon's trajectory by changing the forecast just because we want to see what we want to see.

I will stick to the original trendlines as a guide of where we should be, not change them to show where we are. But changing them lower as Sparkit did also lowered the forecast, don't you agree?

Also, this is the point where I am starting to fear for altcoins in general. If they cannot sustain their momentum and bitcoin sustains its momentum and pumps, we might see the whole altcoin market in the red.