The Halving - Good or Bad for Bitcoin?

[fravia]

As the title says, is the halving good or bad for the price of bitcoin?

The halving will decrease the supply of bitcoin, whole keeping the demand, so that would make bitcoin worth more.

But the halving will make mining profitibilty worse, meaning less miners, a higher trans. fee, and maybe causing a smaller demand.

What's your verdict?

I think bitcoin will still go up, as the fees might, let's say, double, but that's still a smaller transaction fee than through the banks...

It should honestly be very good as the supply will reduce by 50% every single time, and early investors will gain money from this change, as you can see on the forums a lot of people are happy about
Interestingly, if you check this https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply out, you may see the answers to everything you want to know, i think it's been recommended before but just for good measure, as it makes a good read

[hermanhs09]

Well, I think that the halving will actually do good for bitcoin because just look at the price right now! The markets are going crazy, although I think that this is more like the normal price level for BTC.

It'll probably bring a few more price rises before the next halving

[BlackPanda]

halving make bitcoin be better. Now is the time towards halving and bitcoin prices climb to positive. I'm sure as halving the price of bitcoin will be increased significantly. it makes bitcoin users get incredible profits.

[Jmild1]

Looking at the present scenario I think this halving will be good for bitcoin, as price will  go higher then it will attract many new users and investors to invest their money into it.

Its true that the halving event will be good for bitcoin because the block mined reward will divide into two. Another thing that making the price go higher is the FOMO we feel and the chinese. Yes, we also feel the chinese 

[23dzmaz]

halving make bitcoin be better. Now is the time towards halving and bitcoin prices climb to positive. I'm sure as halving the price of bitcoin will be increased significantly. it makes bitcoin users get incredible profits.

Yeah, it's really good right now because the price of bitcoin keep increase. But the real problem is the bitcoin's price will stay on the price or goes down when the halving hype is done.

[deisik]

But that was not my premise. I meant to say that centralization inevitably leads to (a possibility of) market manipulation. In other words, if a market is highly decentralized (neither a single major player nor a group of big players are present), it is next to impossible to manipulate the market. This seems to be self-evident (well, at least to me). But nevertheless, regarding market manipulation for stabilization purposes (which should rather be called market intervention), for example, it is not uncommon for a Central bank to intervene in foreign exchange markets with the intention of influencing the exchange rate of its currency. In fact, there is nothing extraordinary in such interventions, which happen on a regular basis in many countries...

They are carried out with the aim of stabilizing the exchange rate for all domestic economic entities, and still more so for those entities which trade internationally

To the prices, the only reason I could think of miners wishing to manipulate the market is to increase the sale-price of newly mined bitcoin, which I believe usually is sold instantly as they don't want to hold volatile assets and seek to lock-in the profit. If we assume this is not true, the only manipulation that can be done is to hold mined coins to artificially reduce supply, but their capacity to do this naturally declines spectacularly after every 210,000 blocks and is a futile endeavour. Consider too that the fractional expansion with each block reward is only very slight and this seems less important than the manipulation downward that might be exerted by the Winklevosses or Satoshi

Let's continue with the thorough dissection of your post, lol. I would most likely agree with your opinion that increasing the sale price of bitcoins mined is the prime reason as well as the ultimate aim behind miners' wish to manipulate the market, but I can't possibly agree with your inference that the only means of market manipulation available to them is just holding newly minted coins, for the sake of reducing supply. This may be true in respect to individual miners, but as we know, the driving force behind mining as of today is not these poor beggars but mining pools that have eaten up almost 100% of Bitcoin mining. To make things easier to understand, think of mining pools as large international corporations which consist of individual workers each of which, taken separately, can't influence anything but not the corporations themselves, some of which can even kick governments (let alone control markets). Similarly, while individual miners can pretty much only hold their coins (and pray), the mining pools are by no means restricted or otherwise limited in their ways of manipulating and cornering the market...

So, in essence, they can influence the market in any way possible that they see fit, including but not limited to buying coins at the market instead of selling them, which your point essentially boils down to

[Finestream]

halving make bitcoin be better. Now is the time towards halving and bitcoin prices climb to positive. I'm sure as halving the price of bitcoin will be increased significantly. it makes bitcoin users get incredible profits.

Yeah, it's really good right now because the price of bitcoin keep increase. But the real problem is the bitcoin's price will stay on the price or goes down when the halving hype is done.

The halving hype just add the price to increase more but the reason behind is the law of demand and supply. We know for the fact that everyday is another day for bitcoins and it is not just an ordinary day because as time pass by the adopters increase with huge number.

[TemplarKnightUK]

Let's continue with the thorough dissection of your post, lol.

Not to worry, fruitful discussion is helpful!

They're also comprised of individual miners, who receive the profits and decide what to do with them, rather than a single entity (the pool). Though some miners may have greater hashpower than others, I think the overall scheme is one of independence of one another. Also, if pools exert dominance, individual miners exert their free will to switch (as I believe occurred after GHash.IO's 51% gambit) and the system is rectified

I don't know the story behind GHash.IO's 51% gambit (as you call it), but I think that I can safely assume that they have abused their position too openly and too aggressively, and now we have 7-8 mining pools who will most likely act in by far more subtle ways to pursue their ends (having learned the lesson), which may differ substantially from the interests of individual miners that these pools consist of. We have witnessed the price increase more than 3 times in the course of the last year, but who is most interested in this hike and can actually affect the price? These are the same mining pools, though we are told now and then, here and there that the hike is due to the upcoming halving (which may actually be true to a certain extent)...

To me, it is not a question of whether they will exert their dominance, but rather of how subtle their ways will be

Is there any way we could be aware if there was collusion between pools? Though would this not only be to impact the legitimacy of the blockchain? We can easily verify that unspent outputs don't go above 21 million, and people would start complaining if their coins were missing (though perhaps miners might target earlier and untouched ones in order to get away undetected). Nevertheless, there are some news outlets for the crypto-sphere that I feel would blow the whistle on such a thing if necessary (no great conspiracy persists forever undiscovered).

Anyone with capital can manipulate on exchanges; it just so happens that miners have the greatest vested interest at the moment. It just so happens at the moment that there are still people and pools with huge amounts of coins (generated when the block reward was double what it is now), so they can exert a significant effect on the market. But as we halve and halve again, coins will gradually become more distributed, so that the capacity for block reward and manipulation by mining-derived capital diminishes and the game becomes about Tx fees; that will happen sooner rather than later (perhaps by the next again halving; consider there will be eight further years of adoption in that time)

[Palakka]

I think the halving is better for bitcoin, the price will increased
its good to hold you bitcoin and sell it the halving before may the price will down when the halving is ends.

[darkmagician]

Halving makes thee bitcoin price go higher,,and they are waiting for this cause its only happening every four years.

[goldcoinminer]

Halving makes thee bitcoin price go higher,,and they are waiting for this cause its only happening every four years.

Therefore this halving is an opportunity that should not be mislook by everyone here, this is the time where we can earn a good amount of bitcoins if we know how to risk. The halving is always good if majority will benefit.

[randy8777]

Halving makes thee bitcoin price go higher,,and they are waiting for this cause its only happening every four years.

Therefore this halving is an opportunity that should not be mislook by everyone here, this is the time where we can earn a good amount of bitcoins if we know how to risk. The halving is always good if majority will benefit.

the best times to invest in bitcoin due to the block halving are over at this point. right now is an okay moment to enter the market. it's either good for selling or holding even longer. that's how i look at it.

[umaOuma]

Halving makes thee bitcoin price go higher,,and they are waiting for this cause its only happening every four years.

Therefore this halving is an opportunity that should not be mislook by everyone here, this is the time where we can earn a good amount of bitcoins if we know how to risk. The halving is always good if majority will benefit.

the best times to invest in bitcoin due to the block halving are over at this point. right now is an okay moment to enter the market. it's either good for selling or holding even longer. that's how i look at it.

That's correct, buy time is over now as price seems to be very high now so either its time to sell if you are satisfied with the price or hold if you expect higher price at halving.

[deisik]

Let's continue with the thorough dissection of your post, lol.

Not to worry, fruitful discussion is helpful!

They're also comprised of individual miners, who receive the profits and decide what to do with them, rather than a single entity (the pool). Though some miners may have greater hashpower than others, I think the overall scheme is one of independence of one another. Also, if pools exert dominance, individual miners exert their free will to switch (as I believe occurred after GHash.IO's 51% gambit) and the system is rectified

I don't know the story behind GHash.IO's 51% gambit (as you call it), but I think that I can safely assume that they have abused their position too openly and too aggressively, and now we have 7-8 mining pools who will most likely act in by far more subtle ways to pursue their ends (having learned the lesson), which may differ substantially from the interests of individual miners that these pools consist of. We have witnessed the price increase more than 3 times in the course of the last year, but who is most interested in this hike and can actually affect the price? These are the same mining pools, though we are told now and then, here and there that the hike is due to the upcoming halving (which may actually be true to a certain extent)...

To me, it is not a question of whether they will exert their dominance, but rather of how subtle their ways will be

Is there any way we could be aware if there was collusion between pools? Though would this not only be to impact the legitimacy of the blockchain? We can easily verify that unspent outputs don't go above 21 million, and people would start complaining if their coins were missing (though perhaps miners might target earlier and untouched ones in order to get away undetected). Nevertheless, there are some news outlets for the crypto-sphere that I feel would blow the whistle on such a thing if necessary (no great conspiracy persists forever undiscovered)

This inference (that no great conspiracy remains undiscovered) is an obvious example of the so-called survivorship bias. In WWII, the bombers returning home from missions had bullet holes in various places (in the wings, nose, and tail) but never through the engine and the cockpit. It meant that the planes that got hit there simply didn't make it home, and not what you might think. In this case, you only hear about the conspiracies that got revealed in due course, but you will never hear about the ones that just dissolve in the fog of time undisclosed...

Thereby, you inadvertently overlook them, and this can lead to false conclusions like that you mentioned

[deisik]

Regarding the collusion between the pools, you can take it as guaranteed, since in any market whenever there are a few major players and no supervising body that both sets the rules forbidding collusion and brings down the punishment for breaking them (see the Billions movie series), it is in the best economic interests of these players to coordinate their actions...

So, as I said, it is not a matter of if they collude but rather which form it will take, and what actions it will bring

[TemplarKnightUK]

Regarding the collusion between the pools, you can take it as guaranteed, since in any market whenever there are a few major players and no supervising body that both sets the rules forbidding collusion and brings down the punishment for breaking them (see the Billions movie series), it is in the best economic interests of these players to coordinate their actions...

So, as I said, it is not a matter of if they collude but rather which form it will take, and what actions it will bring

Okay, so assuming collusion is taking place, we can all see the blockchain, and take temporal logs, so if ever such a thing is discovered, the community can surely revert to the log at a time point before it was known to be bad? Or would that try to unwind too much economic activity and enrich those that should have had their wealth depleted? It is messy.

To the point of the question, on whether or not it is bad for bitcoin: all of these considerations arise as a result of the halving, but that halving is very much necessary for bitcoin to halve any value. Its value only derives from its scarcity and the guarantee of that halving. Without it, it is nothing more than binary digits and wasted electricity. Putting pressure on miners, though, is perhaps a bad thing. The next best thing would be a disinflationary supply, with constant mining output (I think Ether has this principle?), or even a constant-inflationary supply (i.e. block reward expands to ensure constant expansion of maybe ∼3/4% p.a, Friedman-style?). It's all guesswork, but I think there is cause to be bullish, and I really don't think the network is going to break in 20 days' time.

[deisik]

Regarding the collusion between the pools, you can take it as guaranteed, since in any market whenever there are a few major players and no supervising body that both sets the rules forbidding collusion and brings down the punishment for breaking them (see the Billions movie series), it is in the best economic interests of these players to coordinate their actions...

So, as I said, it is not a matter of if they collude but rather which form it will take, and what actions it will bring

Okay, so assuming collusion is taking place, we can all see the blockchain, and take temporal logs, so if ever such a thing is discovered, the community can surely revert to the log at a time point before it was known to be bad? Or would that try to unwind too much economic activity and enrich those that should have had their wealth depleted? It is messy

I don't quite understand what you mean by "a thing". Miners are interested in the high price, and the halving is a good pretext for massaging the market in that direction. In this way, the mining pools, in coordination with each other, might have been artificially reducing the supply of new coins to the market or even buying some coins to stir up the interest of the public...

Once this interest is instigated and the price is on the rise, they can gradually sell back the coins and book profits

[buyinbtc]

As the title says, is the halving good or bad for the price of bitcoin?

The halving will decrease the supply of bitcoin, whole keeping the demand, so that would make bitcoin worth more.

But the halving will make mining profitibilty worse, meaning less miners, a higher trans. fee, and maybe causing a smaller demand.

What's your verdict?

I think bitcoin will still go up, as the fees might, let's say, double, but that's still a smaller transaction fee than through the banks...

Well i actually think that bitcoin halving is good for everyone, well almost everyone, as it's price will riseso this will lead to larger popularity

And i think that it is good for everyone except  miners, as they will get less profit if bitcoins price won't rise at all i think

[deisik]

To the point of the question, on whether or not it is bad for bitcoin: all of these considerations arise as a result of the halving, but that halving is very much necessary for bitcoin to halve any value. Its value only derives from its scarcity and the guarantee of that halving. Without it, it is nothing more than binary digits and wasted electricity. Putting pressure on miners, though, is perhaps a bad thing. The next best thing would be a disinflationary supply, with constant mining output (I think Ether has this principle?), or even a constant-inflationary supply (i.e. block reward expands to ensure constant expansion of maybe ∼3/4% p.a, Friedman-style?). It's all guesswork, but I think there is cause to be bullish, and I really don't think the network is going to break in 20 days' time.

Along with the halving miners could raise the fees in order to somewhat compensate (or overcompensate, lol) for the loss of profits due to halving and possible price collapse just before or right after the halving...

I'm curious who does actually set the fees?

[sk00t3r]

Looking at the present price spike I think halving be really good for the users like us who have been waiting to see the best price of bicoin, just hold your coins for halving and you will get the answer.