2024 NBA Season

[Botnake]

Nuggets on Game 1 for me too. Although I doubt the high spreads if it can be covered.

If you believe that they will win in game 1, trust them to cover the spread. Currently, the Moneyline (ML) odds for the Nuggets are only 1.28, so I think that is too low for gambling unless you have great faith in them and would like to bet a decent amount. However, if you're not betting a lot of money, I think -10 with odds of 2.03 would be fine. Sometimes we have doubts about whether the spread will be covered, but often, when we have doubts, it's the easiest bet that we should take.

In the end, you just have to be confident and trust your analysis.

Money line is not that sweet because the Denver Nuggets now are listed as a very heavy favorite because of what seed they've finished the regular season plus they have pulled a stunt that very few can make and that was sweeping a team in a conference finals. So, if you're looking a heavy payout, handicap will be needed but giving a +10 advantage on the Heat might be a bad choice. Nobody can guarantee that of course, so who knows what will happen on their first game.

Ya, this is a case where it seems pretty clear that Denver is going to take game 1.  They're more well rested, Jimmy Buckets has an ankle injury, Denver is younger, Denver is playing at home in the mile high city, Denver matches up well against Butler and Bam, Denver had a better season, Denver has been playing together longer as a team, etc...

That leaves pretty bum odds to bet against.  I'd almost say it's worth taking the Heat to win with the given odds, but I honestly don't think they have much of a chance.  Jokic will shut down Bam, MPJ & BGordon will shut down Butler, and Murray will absolutely go off against Miami's guards.  I see Denver winning this series in 5.

If I'm not mistaken, Denver got a 5-0 standing versus the Heat during the regular season. I know it is a different case this time because we are already in the Finals but I sure do know that during those match-up, the Nuggets certainly learned a thing or two about how the Heat moves and their priorities as well. And just like the Nuggets, the Heat learned something during those said match-ups as well but when it comes to advantage, regarding what I've said, the Nuggets got the upper hand.

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[Blitzboy]

Nuggets on Game 1 for me too. Although I doubt the high spreads if it can be covered.

If you believe that they will win in game 1, trust them to cover the spread. Currently, the Moneyline (ML) odds for the Nuggets are only 1.28, so I think that is too low for gambling unless you have great faith in them and would like to bet a decent amount. However, if you're not betting a lot of money, I think -10 with odds of 2.03 would be fine. Sometimes we have doubts about whether the spread will be covered, but often, when we have doubts, it's the easiest bet that we should take.

In the end, you just have to be confident and trust your analysis.

Money line is not that sweet because the Denver Nuggets now are listed as a very heavy favorite because of what seed they've finished the regular season plus they have pulled a stunt that very few can make and that was sweeping a team in a conference finals. So, if you're looking a heavy payout, handicap will be needed but giving a +10 advantage on the Heat might be a bad choice. Nobody can guarantee that of course, so who knows what will happen on their first game.

Ya, this is a case where it seems pretty clear that Denver is going to take game 1.  They're more well rested, Jimmy Buckets has an ankle injury, Denver is younger, Denver is playing at home in the mile high city, Denver matches up well against Butler and Bam, Denver had a better season, Denver has been playing together longer as a team, etc...

That leaves pretty bum odds to bet against.  I'd almost say it's worth taking the Heat to win with the given odds, but I honestly don't think they have much of a chance.  Jokic will shut down Bam, MPJ & BGordon will shut down Butler, and Murray will absolutely go off against Miami's guards.  I see Denver winning this series in 5.

You've got a point, mate, it does seem like they're holding the aces. But remember how the Heat has a history of spitting in the face of the bookies, eh? It's a given, Denver's crew is green, revved up, and enjoying home comfort. But don't the toughest conditions mold the strongest champions?

Remember those five head-to-heads in the regular season? Denver clinched it, sure, but doesn't every setback offer a lesson? Maybe the Heat has been sitting back, quietly studying every play Denver has made. They've had a close encounter with the Nuggets' game plan, they've felt their force, and they're hungry to turn the tables. Picture it, Butler and Bam stepping up, rocking Denver on their own stage! Ah, the theatrics! The mystery! Isn't that the essence of this game's allure?

[dwyane36]

Unless they really have a good plan or zone defense just for Jokic, they shouldn't forget that it is not only him that they need to focus with if it's outside shooting because there's also Murray plus the other bench players that Michael Malone is just keeping for this very finals.

I think Vincent will defend against Murray, and if he fails, Butler or Martin will probably help him. Overall, it's worth noting that the Heat has a pretty good defense, and the result of Game 7 against the Celtics is a good example of that.
By the way, it would be good for the Heat if Herro could come back as soon as possible, although Spo recently said he's not ready yet and will miss tonight's game.

[LGD2Business]

It would have been more difficult for the Denver Nuggets if they had the Boston Celtics instead of Miami Heat. Boston is a more established team and they are quite experienced. They play better away. Denver will play 4 games at home, so Boston could push them harder. Heat is teamed up with great undrafted players. Of course, we all look forward to what players like Martin will do in the finals. Finals are a completely different arena, there is no room for mistakes here. Who will defend Jokić is a big question mark. If paired with Adebayo, Jokić can do whatever he wants. With Murray and Porter playing well, Denver could finish this series before 6 games.

[el kaka22]

I think it is obvious that Heat is good, they are at the finals and I do agree that Nuggets will dominate at home, but then when it's back to Miami, Nuggets will have some hard time for sure. They are so used to breezy air of cold Denver, Miami will be hard for them and they have been resting for sure and that will help at first but then it's going to be both teams going into third game so I doubt that would matter.

I am not seeing a 4-5 game series, it will probably be another 6-7 game series if you ask me. Obviously I can't guarantee anything, Nuggets may sweep, or hell even Heat may sweep, how would we know. I just assume that after the first two games, the difference Nuggets have will get a lot smaller and teams will be a lot closer to each other.

[wheelz1200]

I think it is obvious that Heat is good, they are at the finals and I do agree that Nuggets will dominate at home, but then when it's back to Miami, Nuggets will have some hard time for sure. They are so used to breezy air of cold Denver, Miami will be hard for them and they have been resting for sure and that will help at first but then it's going to be both teams going into third game so I doubt that would matter.

I am not seeing a 4-5 game series, it will probably be another 6-7 game series if you ask me. Obviously I can't guarantee anything, Nuggets may sweep, or hell even Heat may sweep, how would we know. I just assume that after the first two games, the difference Nuggets have will get a lot smaller and teams will be a lot closer to each other.

I see this as a 5 game max series.  I just don't see miami scoring with Denver unless theor 3 point shooting is off the charts.  Jokic can't be stopped and Murray is just too good to be slowed down as well.  If miami wants a chance they will have to figure out how to defend their pick and roll game.

[blockman]

Well, it's interesting that there could be plays like this on this upcoming finals and I guess that it will be hyper than the last matches.

Maybe referees will be more careful by ensuring that the clock adjustment they make is correct. We don't want a repeat of what happened in Game 6 of the ECF, where fans complained because the clock should have been at 2.8 seconds, but it was adjusted to 3 seconds. Even milliseconds count, so everything should be taken care of well, even the smallest things, as they could cost a game.

There's nothing much the fans can do from the officials or refs. But I do agree that they should avoid to mess up since this is the finals.

It wasn't as controversial as is because the Heat just accepted it and there's no need for much thought about it. It's clear that was a shot that's got in. Well, it's interesting that there could be plays like this on this upcoming finals and I guess that it will be hyper than the last matches.

Yes, it was but the Heat was not really bothered by what happened and that just made the picture clearer as ever because the Miami Heat was just so confident about their chances to win the next game, which is the Game 7, even if they knew that they will be playing in a hostile ground as the game is scheduled to be in Celtic's home. Because if that was not the case, then I guess we would have seen the Heat appealing about what happened.

Yeah right. Even that was a 0-3 deficit and Boston could be the luckiest to cover all of those games and made a comeback but not for the game 7 because it's probably been seen by the Heat that they can still make it.

[harizen]

I see this as a 5 game max series.  I just don't see miami scoring with Denver unless theor 3 point shooting is off the charts.  Jokic can't be stopped and Murray is just too good to be slowed down as well.  If miami wants a chance they will have to figure out how to defend their pick and roll game.

Therefore, Miami Heat should really be focused on their offense more while obviously, still trying to slow down the Nuggets offensive phase. If Denver Nuggets are unstoppable on their offense, where even teams they faced in the playoffs put some hard defense on them, then keep up with them thru the offensive phase too.

Putting too much attention on their disadvantage might just destroy their overall strategy. Instead, focused on where they are good too, the offense. We have shown Miami Heat games where they are putting a good percentage on their offense and that's where they should improve, as much as possible.

Anyways, let's wait for the Game 1 result, and from there we can see what the possible adjustments are projected to happen to later games.

[OgNasty]

So far the game is going about how I expected. Miami can’t cover MPJ and Ben Gordon. Looks like they’re leaving Ben Gordon open who is absolutely punishing them right now. They’re going to probably switch up and let MPJ run free in the second half. Nice to see Denver immediately exploiting their advantages. Miami is in trouble and we’re only 9 minutes in.

[rhomelmabini]

So far the game is going about how I expected. Miami can’t cover MPJ and Ben Gordon. Looks like they’re leaving Ben Gordon open who is absolutely punishing them right now. They’re going to probably switch up and let MPJ run free in the second half. Nice to see Denver immediately exploiting their advantages. Miami is in trouble and we’re only 9 minutes in.

It's Aaron Gordon btw, and he's really punishing below with those smaller defenders on him. The switches Denver are absolutely stunning and I guess this will be a blowout game for the Denver unless Miami make some adjustments and decrease that outside shooting, they're really salty out there especially for Strus right now with 0-6 3PT FG.

[Questat]

So far the game is going about how I expected. Miami can’t cover MPJ and Ben Gordon. Looks like they’re leaving Ben Gordon open who is absolutely punishing them right now. They’re going to probably switch up and let MPJ run free in the second half. Nice to see Denver immediately exploiting their advantages. Miami is in trouble and we’re only 9 minutes in.

The first half is over, and the Nuggets already have a 17-point lead. Miami is significantly smaller compared to the Nuggets, and it's unfortunate that their shooting has not been good thus far. The Miami Heat are now shooting only 23.5% from beyond the arc, going 4 for 17, which is very poor considering they are typically a decent 3-point shooting team. Most probably, they are being bothered by the Nuggets' defense.

Additionally, the undrafted players have not been effective thus far. Both Caleb Martin and Struss have yet to score.

[LogitechMouse]

So far the game is going about how I expected. Miami can’t cover MPJ and Ben Gordon. Looks like they’re leaving Ben Gordon open who is absolutely punishing them right now. They’re going to probably switch up and let MPJ run free in the second half. Nice to see Denver immediately exploiting their advantages. Miami is in trouble and we’re only 9 minutes in.

I did a quick Google search on who Ben Gordon is, and surprisingly he played in the NBA (I don't know him TBH that's why I'm surprised), and what's more surprising is that base on Wikipedia:

On January 9, 2010, Gordon scored the 10 millionth point in NBA history.

Anyway, the Nuggets won on their first NBA Finals game on franchise history by 11 points 104-93 behind a triple double by Jokic (his 9th in this playoffs), and 26 points by Murray.

The Nuggets are just amazing in this game. Shot 50.6% in FG, and the Heat doesn't have anything to stop Murray, and MPJ who got a double-double 14 points, 13 rebounds. Gordon also scored 16 points in this one. What's good about the Nuggets is that, they know how to capitalize the disadvantages of their opposing team like in this game, the Heat obviously are undersized especially when Gordon, and MPJ are in the court (which happens most of the time). That's also the reason why both of them got double-digits in this Game 1. Jokic also got 14 assists which is the most in an NBA Finals debut.

As for the Heat, they made a history in Game 1 as they have the fewest number of free throw attempts in NBA Finals history with two attempts. Just imagine that for a second. You played for 48 minutes, and you only got 2 free throws. Butler just for context averaged more than 8 free throw attempts in the ECF, and has been good in drawing fouls. This just shows how good the Nuggets are in defense to the point that they can avoid getting fouls while defending their opponents. This is also the first Game 1 loss for the Heat since they won on the first 3 Game 1's on the first 3 series in this playoffs. Another one is Caleb Martin. He is unstoppable against the Celtics, but in Game 1 he scored only 3 points. It's expected that the Nuggets will defend him most of the time.

Game 2 will be 2 days from now. We will see more adjustments coming from both teams. Will the Nuggets maintain their undefeated record? Or the Heat will bounce back, and steal one on the road like what they're always doing in this playoffs.

[Oasisman]

And just like that, Denver took game 1 at home with full control over the Heat. The size differential was very obvious and just like everyone thought Denver is gonna win the championship this year. I don't know how the Heat are gonna fight back against a team who has been playing at a very high level this year. I'm kinda skeptical what will happen in game 3, because that will most likely gonna determine who wins this series if the Nuggets takes game 2 again. That was an easy win for the Nuggets to be honest. Adebayo can't stop Jokic.
I'm starting to think that this Denver Nuggets team is going to be the new NBA dynasty.

[OgNasty]

So far the game is going about how I expected. Miami can’t cover MPJ and Ben Gordon. Looks like they’re leaving Ben Gordon open who is absolutely punishing them right now. They’re going to probably switch up and let MPJ run free in the second half. Nice to see Denver immediately exploiting their advantages. Miami is in trouble and we’re only 9 minutes in.

It's Aaron Gordon btw, and he's really punishing below with those smaller defenders on him. The switches Denver are absolutely stunning and I guess this will be a blowout game for the Denver unless Miami make some adjustments and decrease that outside shooting, they're really salty out there especially for Strus right now with 0-6 3PT FG.

Man, I’m getting all my names wrong. Not sure why I got Ben in there, although I do remember him from back in the day too.   Aaron Gordon is actually one of my favorite players and has the greatest dunk of all time under his belt, so I should definitely not be making that mistake. He was the difference tonight. The question now to me is if this series is a sweep or not.

[Hypnosis00]

And just like that, Denver took game 1 at home with full control over the Heat. The size differential was very obvious and just like everyone thought Denver is gonna win the championship this year. I don't know how the Heat are gonna fight back against a team who has been playing at a very high level this year. I'm kinda skeptical what will happen in game 3, because that will most likely gonna determine who wins this series if the Nuggets takes game 2 again. That was an easy win for the Nuggets to be honest. Adebayo can't stop Jokic.
I'm starting to think that this Denver Nuggets team is going to be the new NBA dynasty.

It's just Game 1, so let's not overreact because this is a Game 7 series. Both teams will make a lot of adjustments. I believe Denver could still win Game 2, but Games 3 and 4 should belong to the Heat. If the Nuggets manage to steal at least one game, then it's possible the series will favor the Nuggets.

As usual, the Nuggets are proving to be unstoppable, but we can't underestimate Coach Spo's abilities. He is known for making adjustments and turning series into competitive battles. I'm hopeful that will happen, starting from Game 2.

[famososMuertos]

The game controlled in defense for Denver, controlled in attack, the coach gave him time to take a break, he woke up when he called timeout.  

 Jokic triple double, but in his words the key to Denver's dominance is having 4 of his teammates with double points.

 No surprises, @1.30 turned out to be quite high Now Sunday's game I don't think it will be as easy as this for Denver, Heat will adjust their game and 2 days of rest will allow them to perform better.

[Natalim]

The game controlled in defense for Denver, controlled in attack, the coach gave him time to take a break, he woke up when he called timeout.  

 Jokic triple double, but in his words the key to Denver's dominance is having 4 of his teammates with double points.

 No surprises, @1.30 turned out to be quite high Now Sunday's game I don't think it will be as easy as this for Denver, Heat will adjust their game and 2 days of rest will allow them to perform better.

With that, I believe the Heat will be able to keep the game close enough to cover the handicap given to them. As for Game 2's spread, with the Heat at +9, I think it's a good idea to take it early, as it already offers great value considering the perception of this series so far. I'm confident that despite the high spread, the majority of bettors will still take it, given the Nuggets' dominant performance in Game 1.

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Well, the expected "blowout" I would say.

I said they will win by 15 or more and it looked that way after 3 quarter.
Left the off the gas paddle and lost the last quarter by 10 to win "only" be 11.

Still a good demonstration of what's to come in this series.

Jokic with a mandatory triple double on great shooting splits, this guy is just ridiculous. Without Butler having a good game and Robinson hitting some 3s Miami will be in BIG trouble!

[yahoo62278]

Well, the expected "blowout" I would say.

I said they will win by 15 or more and it looked that way after 3 quarter.
Left the off the gas paddle and lost the last quarter by 10 to win "only" be 11.

Still a good demonstration of what's to come in this series.

Jokic with a mandatory triple double on great shooting splits, this guy is just ridiculous. Without Butler having a good game and Robinson hitting some 3s Miami will be in BIG trouble!

Denver was favored by 9 so they covered the spread. Very tough team to beat at home, especially in the playoffs. If Miami wants a chance, they will have to steal a game from Denver in Denver. Otherwise, they have no shot. That means shutting down Jokic and Murray and i'm not sure that's going to be possible.

[danherbias07]

Lucky are those who took the -10.5. You just received the exact amount to win your bets so congratulations to you all.
In my case, I took the -8.5 Nuggets, so it's also a winner.

The Miami Heat is not playing well when it comes to offense, Caleb Martin seems to be off night and that broke his consistent double digits in points in the Celtics series. Maybe in Game 2, he will be different. Gabe Vincent and Haywood Highsmith are the only ones who I think are confident enough to do some damage against the Nuggets. Bam's stats, should be normal, that's his average during the season. Something big is missing, Jimmy Butler. He is the one who creates a lot of free throws for the team but today they only shot 2/2 at the stripe. That means no one is putting a body against the Nuggets when it comes to offense and that should be Butler.
They are not aggressive enough and the Nuggets took advantage of that. The Heat are actually lucky the three-pointers of the Nuggets are not sinking in or else it could've been a big blowout.