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Author Topic: Long term OIL  (Read 91732 times)
expert4knowledge
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January 21, 2016, 09:46:00 PM
 #161

The Oil industry has seen better days. We are now watching an industry shift. The electricity industry is growing and surpassing the Oil industry. It will be extremelly important to leave the Oil has our preferred fuel if we want to decrease our polution levels
Yes, some weeks ago some important decisions was made in France for decreasing pollution and so we should not expect much increase in oil price in future.

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January 21, 2016, 09:57:03 PM
 #162

Oil is so hard to store. We probably won't live long enough to see its reserves depleted. What if in the next 20 years people switch to electric cars? What about fuel made of rape oil and similar stuff?

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January 22, 2016, 09:19:08 AM
 #163

Oil is so hard to store. We probably won't live long enough to see its reserves depleted. What if in the next 20 years people switch to electric cars? What about fuel made of rape oil and similar stuff?

There is almost unlimited oil reserve. It depend on the price of oil. If the price is high, more oil will be found.

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January 22, 2016, 10:08:15 PM
 #164

Oil is so hard to store. We probably won't live long enough to see its reserves depleted. What if in the next 20 years people switch to electric cars? What about fuel made of rape oil and similar stuff?

There is almost unlimited oil reserve. It depend on the price of oil. If the price is high, more oil will be found.
I have to add that the other important variable is the price of green energies, if it decreases then oil consumption will decrease too.

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January 23, 2016, 04:23:37 AM
 #165

For those who was asking how oil investing works..

#From the journal #
It's great time to invest in to oil. Why? There is no risk involved and also will give a great return.
WHY
I'm about to buy a specific amount of barels when price will reach right point.

I have $11k at a bank acc, which at price $20/b allows me to go long for 500 barels. That's also is a leverage 1:1*
(Money managment): Position based on the fact that price will never fall under $1/b ("haha")

When price wil reach predicted $180 I will earn difference of $160, which means $160 x b500 = $80k

Theoreticaly costs will be from $100 to $2400 as a broker fees.

And then just pay %25 in taxes.

Your broker (if not very very good one Wink ) will ask you for a margin, a sum which will support your 500 barrels position. A sum of $800 will be enought. Interesting. Some "brokers" dont asks for a margin , trader pays loses after, ussualy, in 24 hours. And trader can just give an order to buy/sell for  ANY ammount position, of oil barels for exemple. That's how people trade at so called "pits" on big exchanges.

That how works this great, non risk involved trading, this "price circle" hapens just once in "very long time".
Dont miss this time Wink
DOnt hestitate to pm if any more questions occurs.  

*in theory, of course 1:1 leverage technicaly isnt an leverage at all.
But that would be 1:14 leverage to the margin ($800)

The problem with this example is you can't just buy oil, hold it until it's expensive again, and then easily sell it. If you were buying physical oil, you would have to pay someone to store it for you, because they're not going to do it for free, and you're not going to pay to have oil shipped to you and store it yourself. So you're relegated to buying oil futures. Except oil futures aren't like securities that you can hold forever. Oil futures have expiration dates and you either have to unload them before the expiration date, or take physical delivery of the oil underlying the contract, which brings you back to the problem of storing physical oil.

So your example ignores the complexities of buying oil as it is anything but a sure profit. If it was so easy, all the energy traders would be buying oil so fast for that sure profit that we'd hardly have a collapsing price at all.

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January 23, 2016, 04:25:39 AM
 #166

Oil will rise to 180


When post was made price for UK oil was 36.55


Targets:
Short term 20-25
Long term 180


Long term prediction could be fullfiled between 2017-2019



I sure hope you're right. Here in Canada our dollar is pretty much handcuffed to the price of oil, and our dollar is tanking hard.

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January 23, 2016, 11:31:50 AM
 #167



https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/
If they are not lying you can see future of oil use also price..
This is horrific scenario for our World Cold Turkey will be disaster..
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January 23, 2016, 09:39:45 PM
 #168



https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/
If they are not lying you can see future of oil use also price..
This is horrific scenario for our World Cold Turkey will be disaster..


Won't exactly be cold turkey. The graph looks dramatic, but the drop off spans 50+ years.

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January 23, 2016, 09:55:53 PM
 #169



https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2010/01/13/7200/oil-dependence-is-a-dangerous-habit/
If they are not lying you can see future of oil use also price..
This is horrific scenario for our World Cold Turkey will be disaster..


Won't exactly be cold turkey. The graph looks dramatic, but the drop off spans 50+ years.

The graph makes no sense absolutely. How could they ever extrapolate future discoveries after 2020? A quick sanity check won't hurt, as always

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January 24, 2016, 11:14:19 AM
 #170

They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY
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January 24, 2016, 01:46:38 PM
 #171

They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

"They" don't even know where oil comes from, whether it is abiotic (i.e. formed by inorganic means) or came about through the decomposition of dead organisms, lol 

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January 24, 2016, 02:48:19 PM
 #172

Yes but what ever they told  us, it is some kind of truth and they can manipulate with those facts. One day price of oil will jump enormously no matter if this is truth or not!
They telling us lies about co2 and we will pay every breath we take!
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January 24, 2016, 02:56:46 PM
 #173

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52Mx0_8YEtg

Who can tell us what is the truth today?
We have enormous manipulation, and mind controlling in whole world!
And if you find a truth it's hard to change anything.
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January 24, 2016, 02:58:14 PM
 #174

They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

I'd call at least 50 years, and more likely 75-100, far from COLD TURKEY. But that's just me. I'm not prone to hysteria.

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January 24, 2016, 03:15:35 PM
 #175

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Peak-Oil-Story-We-Have-Been-Told-Is-Wrong.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdawM0PZskY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odCZpBPfFQk

I believe one day we must change our habits,
but when will happen oil peak or not we can only speculate..
Lot of misinformation you can find on internet!

You can rent this space
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January 24, 2016, 04:08:26 PM
 #176

They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

The world is moving forward right now. In another 20 years there will be alot of other fuel sources as energy instead of just oil. This could push the price of oil even lower than what it is right now. There is no denying to the fact that oil is pretty much dead due to its abundance as well as more people realizing on how another sources of energy needs to be used

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January 24, 2016, 04:13:09 PM
 #177

They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

The world is moving forward right now. In another 20 years there will be alot of other fuel sources as energy instead of just oil. This could push the price of oil even lower than what it is right now. There is no denying to the fact that oil is pretty much dead due to its abundance as well as more people realizing on how another sources of energy needs to be used

Basic economics rules still apply, and to force out oil from the market, your "other fuel sources" should necessarily be cheaper than oil. What are these exactly?

And oil is not just "fuel"

JosNekoKopa
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January 24, 2016, 04:37:45 PM
 #178

What could be replace oil from usage, what other aternative source?
What will be consequences ?
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January 24, 2016, 05:07:07 PM
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http://www.rff.org/research/publications/replacing-oil-alternative-fuels-and-technologies
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January 24, 2016, 06:26:14 PM
 #180

They have technology and they have estimated that we are right now around peak!
Also don't forget population of the world is rising, so we are not so far from COLD TURKEY

The world is moving forward right now. In another 20 years there will be alot of other fuel sources as energy instead of just oil. This could push the price of oil even lower than what it is right now. There is no denying to the fact that oil is pretty much dead due to its abundance as well as more people realizing on how another sources of energy needs to be used

Basic economics rules still apply, and to force out oil from the market, your "other fuel sources" should necessarily be cheaper than oil. What are these exactly?

And oil is not just "fuel"

I have heard that, in a very optimistic sense, if humanity can harness nuclear fusion power generation, it would create variably unlimited, or at least extremely cheap source of energy for everyone. This would hypothetically allow for the re-purposing of oil to focus more around plastics and other petroleum based materials, which would in turn be a benefit for humanity.

This is very wishful thinking, however, and based on the current progress with fusion technology, it is still many decades away.
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