Long term OIL

[jaysabi]

The Saudi's actually did start cutting production a bit towards the end of 2015, but the cuts were nominal. I can't find data for anything more recent than October 2015.

July 31, 2015   10.29M
Aug. 31, 2015   10.29M
Sept. 30, 2015   10.19M
Oct. 31, 2015   10.14M

150,000 barrels a month, a drop of 1.4%. Hardly worth mentioning, except that it is actually a drop in production. With their cash crunch, I'll be interested to see what comes in the next 12 months, whether the price recovers and especially if it doesn't.

The data is correct, but the interpretation is wrong.

There is a seasonal component to crude oil production. In a normal year, the maximum crude oil production will be recorded in June-August period, with the production declining during September - December. So it not correct to compare oil production in July to that in October. If you want to compare oil production in October 2015, then you should take the figures from October 2014 as the benchmark.

Check this:



Saudi Arabia increased its production by more than 5% in 2015. That is huge.

Good to know, thanks.

[jaysabi]

Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.

You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down.

Yes at this moment supply is greater than ever, but with constant rise of population this will not be case if we looking long term..At this moment situation is as you say.

Population is a factor, but not the bottom line. The population of the US and Europe are rising, but total oil consumption is decreasing in both of those regions. Rising population doesn't automatically translate to rising oil consumption. What's more important is the developing economies that are using oil to create a middle class more efficiently like the western world did over the last century and a half.

[Rotator]

India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..

[McDonalds5]

Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.

You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down.

Yes at this moment supply is greater than ever, but with constant rise of population this will not be case if we looking long term..At this moment situation is as you say.

Gotta take into account the fact that all major Western countries are currently transforming their consumption. Simple example: European countries are going to make it illegal for supermarkets to use plastic bags. Which means less oil used. The consumpton of those countries might just stabilize and even decrease over time.

In the England, there will be 7.8 billion less plastic bags used, that that is very small amount of oil consumption.

Yeah of course I know, it's just an example. The important aspect is that they all want to get rid of the majority of oil consumption.

Everyone is trying to sell oil now when there is still demand, that's why price is so low. Meanwhile lithium price is breaking new records all the time because that's what's needed to make batteries for electric cars.

[bryant.coleman]

India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..

The oil consumption is China is falling. And I expect the same to happen with India in a few years time. The Chinese government is rapidly replacing gasoline with natural gas, due to the extreme atmospheric pollution which is affecting the major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The Chinese oil consumption will rapidly decline in the near future.

[elloco4ever]

Everything from a this graphs can tell you demand for oil rising and price is falling down?
This artificially made price decline, by corporate masters.
It is logical for price to rise..This is the game of rich.

You're ignoring half the price equation. Price is where supply and demand meet. Demand has risen for oil, supply has exploded. That's why the price is down.

Yes at this moment supply is greater than ever, but with constant rise of population this will not be case if we looking long term..At this moment situation is as you say.

Gotta take into account the fact that all major Western countries are currently transforming their consumption. Simple example: European countries are going to make it illegal for supermarkets to use plastic bags. Which means less oil used. The consumpton of those countries might just stabilize and even decrease over time.

In the England, there will be 7.8 billion less plastic bags used, that that is very small amount of oil consumption.

Yeah of course I know, it's just an example. The important aspect is that they all want to get rid of the majority of oil consumption.

Everyone is trying to sell oil now when there is still demand, that's why price is so low. Meanwhile lithium price is breaking new records all the time because that's what's needed to make batteries for electric cars.

Actually demand for oil is same but there are more suppliers in the market for example take Iran even they started supplying oil now and on the other hand lithium is going to new high when there are more suppliers for lithium even it will come down.

[bob123]

Im interested in seeing how this evolves

[jaysabi]

India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..

The population of the US is rising and oil consumption is decreasing because the US economy is transitioning from towards more efficient vehicles and renewable energy, so yes, clearly something can be done without stopping the rise of population.

[jaysabi]

India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..

The oil consumption is China is falling. And I expect the same to happen with India in a few years time. The Chinese government is rapidly replacing gasoline with natural gas, due to the extreme atmospheric pollution which is affecting the major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The Chinese oil consumption will rapidly decline in the near future.

China's oil consumption is definitely not falling. It may in the future, but it's highly doubtful anytime in the near future based on how rapidly it's currently increasing.

[criptix]

India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..

The oil consumption is China is falling. And I expect the same to happen with India in a few years time. The Chinese government is rapidly replacing gasoline with natural gas, due to the extreme atmospheric pollution which is affecting the major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The Chinese oil consumption will rapidly decline in the near future.

China's oil consumption is definitely not falling. It may in the future, but it's highly doubtful anytime in the near future based on how rapidly it's currently increasing.

There are around 1 billion people alone in china and india who dream to live like westerners.
(Around 1,5 billion more people in 3rd world and emerging countries)

Oil is the cheapest way to get them their.

If indian and chinese economy are doing fine there consumption will increase by a lot in the future.


Btw. What is the actual US oil production?

[botany]

India and China have greatest population rise and they will determine will it be oil consumption increasing.
And nothing can be done if you dont stop rise of population.
Oil consumption will be increased with other segments, production of food, electricity..

The oil consumption is China is falling. And I expect the same to happen with India in a few years time. The Chinese government is rapidly replacing gasoline with natural gas, due to the extreme atmospheric pollution which is affecting the major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The Chinese oil consumption will rapidly decline in the near future.

China's oil consumption is definitely not falling. It may in the future, but it's highly doubtful anytime in the near future based on how rapidly it's currently increasing.

With China, the problem is not with a decrease in consumption.
The problem is usually with the projected growth not materializing.
Everybody expected China to continue with an 8+% increase in GDP for ever. This is not happening.

[bryant.coleman]

China's oil consumption is definitely not falling. It may in the future, but it's highly doubtful anytime in the near future based on how rapidly it's currently increasing.

Hmm... you seems to be correct. According to market data, China imported almost 9% more crude oil in 2015, when compared to the levels in 2014. Still, I am not sure about the reason for this increase. Perhaps they are taking advantage of the current low prices and are filling their storage tanks to full capacity. Or it is genuinely high demand from the consumers. 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-crude-oil-imports-rise-88-in-2015-2016-01-26

[criptix]

China's oil consumption is definitely not falling. It may in the future, but it's highly doubtful anytime in the near future based on how rapidly it's currently increasing.

Hmm... you seems to be correct. According to market data, China imported almost 9% more crude oil in 2015, when compared to the levels in 2014. Still, I am not sure about the reason for this increase. Perhaps they are taking advantage of the current low prices and are filling their storage tanks to full capacity. Or it is genuinely high demand from the consumers.  

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-crude-oil-imports-rise-88-in-2015-2016-01-26

no you use futures for that ( that is the reason we arent sub 20 already)

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/prices.cfm

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/index.cfm

[MedaR]

http://money.cnn.com/gallery/news/economy/2016/02/11/whats-more-expensive-than-oil/3.html

Yes this situation is really funny right now. But for how long this is going to be like this?



"After 2020, world demand will start driving oil prices to the equivalent of $141.28/barrel in 2040 (again, in 2013 dollars).  By then, the cheap sources of oil will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. (Source: Annual Energy Outlook, EIA, July 7, 2015)" from:http://useconomy.about.com/od/supply/f/crude_oil_price.htm

Peak!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qGM9ypR-UI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdawM0PZskY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2ll1mzLulc

No peak!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hu_R3gp84TY 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPXcQWRYESk 

How can we know what is truth ?
Peak or not??

[SirLancelot]

The demand of OIL just drop significantly and the supply is over flowing with reason of recent ban lifts.
All economy that depends on oil suffer the most. Many people are losing their job because of this.

[Rotator]

The oil consumption is China is falling. And I expect the same to happen with India in a few years time. The Chinese government is rapidly replacing gasoline with natural gas, due to the extreme atmospheric pollution which is affecting the major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The Chinese oil consumption will rapidly decline in the near future.

They have actually get agreement with Iran for constant supply with oil !?
I see this as preparation for gaining more power in region!
They probably lies about oil consumption..

With more population rise you cannot expect decreasing of consummation of oil and decreasing pollution..

[Barnabe]

The demand of OIL just drop significantly and the supply is over flowing with reason of recent ban lifts.
All economy that depends on oil suffer the most. Many people are losing their job because of this.

If OPEC comes to an agreement Oil price should increase very quickly.
These countries are losing lots of money, geopolitical interests should have less and less importance.

[mrhelpful]

The oil consumption is China is falling. And I expect the same to happen with India in a few years time. The Chinese government is rapidly replacing gasoline with natural gas, due to the extreme atmospheric pollution which is affecting the major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing. The Chinese oil consumption will rapidly decline in the near future.

They have actually get agreement with Iran for constant supply with oil !?
I see this as preparation for gaining more power in region!
They probably lies about oil consumption..

With more population rise you cannot expect decreasing of consummation of oil and decreasing pollution..

Its kinda of hard to believe that comment with oil consumption is decreasing..unless I hear it from a few good sources backing it up by zerohedge or something else that breaks it down.

The middle class is growing with more demands with getting a chinese license for a car ownership - its gotten so bad where theres a actual auction for who gets to drive.

You can google this, I`ll link the video as well just gotta find it again.

[aardvark15]

I think long term oil will go down in price.  Developed countries will gradually switch to renewable sources of energy more and the demand for oil will decrease.

[Pab]

There is  agreement between Russia,Opec  to frozen oil input on current level.Price has been pumed  5%  and
dumped 5%oil  price will not rise for long time