Long term OIL

[criptix]

There are 60 oiltankers waiting at ports of Rotterdam and IJmuiden to dump there oil but the storage capacity is at there max. This didn't happend  since 2009...

They went for anker and waiting.

I heard Shell rented tanks to store its oil for future sale. So the price of oil will not rise soon, still over supply.

There is no endless storage capacity and it cost maintainance. They cant play that game long and my guess capacity is soon at maximum.

Price will probaly only go up mid term if sauds are decreasing output.

[guy_wonderful]

Hardly ever we will reach 27 again, still possible. About 33%


There is new midterm target 45-50 Could be reached in 6 months.
Must see if we touch 30-32 area again and better to enter long from that point. With stops 29.50!

Curently uk oil is trading at 35
Low is at 27.02 , considered like a bottom.

A little later forecast. Like said before I do trade oil sometimes intraday, therefore do my research on oil occasionally.



RESULT
#3(25 Feb, 16) Forecast : 45-50, Price 34.48

[bryant.coleman]

I heard Shell rented tanks to store its oil for future sale. So the price of oil will not rise soon, still over supply.

Even before the sanctions and embargoes on Iran were lifted, there was an over-supply of around 2 million barrels of oil. Now, with Iran also exporting huge amounts of oil, the glut might have worsened. The American frackers are still going strong. There was only a small decline in their production, during the last 12 months.

[Zeke2345]

Know a rich oil tycoon that was saying in some magazine how he went from a bankruptcy counselor to billionaire in 20 years and he had ties to Perot and Bush. He was saying this is the perfect time to be snatching up companies and well rights,so I think this may continue as some of the phat cats prey on the smaller companies. Almost like they are cooking the books with the Saudis for their own personal gain.

[Borisz]

I don't know if this has been posted here, but this is definitely worth a read: http://oil-price.net/

It gives pretty nice explanations for oil prices and if you read, you can get an idea about what is going to happen. If every country including now Iran continues to produce oil at the current rate, or perhaps increase to make up for smaller profit margin, I am expecting a very slow "recovery" of the prices.

I find it funny, that people wanted to push fracking out of the market by bringing the oil prices down. Now that the technology has been developed, its profitable at much lower margins and the tables have turned.

[Barnabe]

Oil is so cheap right now that boats prefer to go round Africa than to pay the suez canal fees.

Source: http://gcaptain.com/canals-feel-ripples-of-container-shipping-crisis-as-vessels-go-the-long-way-round/

I would never think this would be possible 

[tyz]

According to the last report of the EIA from the beginning of February, the total U.S. crude oil storage capacity totals around 521 million barrels and the current crude oil in storage now totals nearly 503 million barrels. We are near to reach the max storage capacity.

http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2016/02/04/are-us-crude-oil-storage-tanks-about-to-overflow/

There are 60 oiltankers waiting at ports of Rotterdam and IJmuiden to dump there oil but the storage capacity is at there max. This didn't happend  since 2009...

They went for anker and waiting.

I heard Shell rented tanks to store its oil for future sale. So the price of oil will not rise soon, still over supply.

[tyz]

#11 It is now cheaper to rent a 1,100 foot merchant vessel than it is to rent a Ferrari
got from the article ' 21 New Numbers That Show That The Global Economy Is Absolutely Imploding '  
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-17/21-new-numbers-show-global-economy-absolutely-imploding

Oil is so cheap right now that boats prefer to go round Africa than to pay the suez canal fees.

Source: http://gcaptain.com/canals-feel-ripples-of-container-shipping-crisis-as-vessels-go-the-long-way-round/

I would never think this would be possible  

[Barnabe]

According to the last report of the EIA from the beginning of February, the total U.S. crude oil storage capacity totals around 521 million barrels and the current crude oil in storage now totals nearly 503 million barrels. We are near to reach the max storage capacity.

http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2016/02/04/are-us-crude-oil-storage-tanks-about-to-overflow/

There are 60 oiltankers waiting at ports of Rotterdam and IJmuiden to dump there oil but the storage capacity is at there max. This didn't happend  since 2009...

They went for anker and waiting.

I heard Shell rented tanks to store its oil for future sale. So the price of oil will not rise soon, still over supply.

So now that storages are full (if all countries have been following this same strategy) we can expect even cheaper Oil.
I don't see how it could be cheaper, even at this price I suspect sell prices are inferior to production costs...

[bryant.coleman]

I don't see how it could be cheaper, even at this price I suspect sell prices are inferior to production costs...

The production costs depends upon the location and type if the rig. Rosneft and Aramco produce crude oil, at a cost of just around $2 per barrel (before taxes). On the other hand, the Venezuelan and the Brazilian producers are incurring a cost somewhere between $30 and $40 to produce a single barrel of crude oil. This chart might help:

[Zeke2345]

Was a interesting article in the Economist about this agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
It stated that the agreement was forced because both sides thought the other was coming to the table with a lower output and had to agree to something to keep the price from dropping farther. Stated that Jan. outputs where the highest they have been in a well and it really was a empty gesture. Iran only said it was a good sign,nothing about following the agreement.
So I guess all for not at the end of the day if I am to believe what the article was getting at.

[deisik]

So now that storages are full (if all countries have been following this same strategy) we can expect even cheaper Oil.
I don't see how it could be cheaper, even at this price I suspect sell prices are inferior to production costs...

It is not just a matter of filling up tanks. You should also consider how fast they will be emptied if there is a disruption in the supply. Oil is a highly flowing commodity (pardon the pun), so, in a sense, measuring the storage capacities for oil as a metric for estimating the threshold when prices collapse is a bit meaningless...

It is like running out of storage capacity for non-cash money

[criptix]

So now that storages are full (if all countries have been following this same strategy) we can expect even cheaper Oil.
I don't see how it could be cheaper, even at this price I suspect sell prices are inferior to production costs...

It is not just a matter of filling up tanks. You should also consider how fast they will be emptied if there is a disruption in the supply. Oil is a highly flowing commodity (pardon the pun), so, in a sense, measuring the storage capacities for oil as a metric for estimating the threshold when prices collapse is a bit meaningless...

It is like running out of storage capacity for non-cash money

So where is the oversupply of oil going when there is no storage capacity left and no reducing of supply?

[deisik]

So where is the oversupply of oil going when there is no storage capacity left and no reducing of supply?

You should at first answer how the US shale oil industry is doing right now, which according to your logic should have long been dead by today

[criptix]

So where is the oversupply of oil going when there is no storage capacity left and no reducing of supply?

You should at first answer how the US shale oil industry is going, which according to your logic should have long been dead by now

Dead? I still see ongoing 12 month in a row production decline you troll.
And that is exactly what i said and you denied

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/01/eia-us-shale-oil-output-to-decline-116-000-b-d-in-february.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/downturn-reaches-us-shale-industry-as-production-scaled-back/article28156309/?service=mobile

I will paraphrase my question:

Are you just dumb or a retard?

[bitcoin-hunter]

I've bought some stocks for oil a few weeks back. it's a very good investment in my perception.
Just let the price go back to 100 usd per barrel in a few years and i've tripled my investment.

[fricircled]

I've bought some stocks for oil a few weeks back. it's a very good investment in my perception.
Just let the price go back to 100 usd per barrel in a few years and i've tripled my investment.

It depends on if your investment or the company can survive the low price in the next few years.

[Windpower]

I would just invest in Bitcoin if I were you. After all you are on a Bitcoin forum, and Bitcoin is better anyway.

[MyBTT]

I would just invest in Bitcoin if I were you. After all you are on a Bitcoin forum, and Bitcoin is better anyway.

Yeah investing in Bitcoin would be better for you. How do you even invest in oil anyways?

[bryant.coleman]

I would just invest in Bitcoin if I were you. After all you are on a Bitcoin forum, and Bitcoin is better anyway.

Yeah investing in Bitcoin would be better for you. How do you even invest in oil anyways?

He might have bought Brent crude futures or options, or he might have purchased shares of oil companies such as Shell and Exxon Mobil. The share prices have hit rock bottom, and personally I believe that it is a good time to buy them now. Keep them for the long term (may be 5 or 6 years). The shale oil is going to run out in the near future, and after that the crude prices will skyrocket.