Long term OIL

[tyz]

It is going to die slowly. The rig count is massively declining and the oil production is following with a little delay. New techniques make it possible to exploit wells more longer than some years ago. When most of them are drained then the production will decline fast (my opinion).

So where is the oversupply of oil going when there is no storage capacity left and no reducing of supply?

You should at first answer how the US shale oil industry is doing right now, which according to your logic should have long been dead by today

[tyz]

The amount of active rigs has reached the amount from 2009. The daily production in 2009 was 1/3 of the current production. If everything is going to get normalized then the production has to fall to this level again.

[botany]

The amount of active rigs has reached the amount from 2009. The daily production in 2009 was 1/3 of the current production. If everything is going to get normalized then the production has to fall to this level again.

This is just with respect to US production, correct? The supply side is one aspect. What we are all seeing is the effect of the demand side, given that expected offtake from global growth is not happening.

[bryant.coleman]

It is going to die slowly. The rig count is massively declining and the oil production is following with a little delay. New techniques make it possible to exploit wells more longer than some years ago. When most of them are drained then the production will decline fast (my opinion).

The decline in rigs is not important here. It is the survival of the fittest. Only the most productive rigs, which require the least manual labor will survive the low crude oil prices. Also, rigs producing low quality crude (such as the North Dakota Sour) will be forced to shut down their operations. That is why the oil production is almost stable, although the number of rigs have fallen by almost 70%.

[qiwoman2]

I want to know why OIL prices are falling if we are reaching more and more scarcity levels in this century. Is OPEC responsible for this or the markets? I could never understand with such a high demand for oil why is it going for so cheap? Personally I am all in for renewable energy myself.

[Barnabe]

I want to know why OIL prices are falling if we are reaching more and more scarcity levels in this century. Is OPEC responsible for this or the markets? I could never understand with such a high demand for oil why is it going for so cheap? Personally I am all in for renewable energy myself.

Saudi Arabia flooding the market to stop the new shale oil industry. (Maybe the US allowing production increases to mess with Russia's economy).
The end of Iran economic embargo allowing them to export Oil again.
No agreement from Opec members because of their financial situation (they all need cash, so they don't want to reduce production)
and so on...

At the end, nobody will confirm this so it's all speculation

[praprata]

I want to know why OIL prices are falling if we are reaching more and more scarcity levels in this century. Is OPEC responsible for this or the markets? I could never understand with such a high demand for oil why is it going for so cheap? Personally I am all in for renewable energy myself.

Saudi Arabia flooding the market to stop the new shale oil industry. (Maybe the US allowing production increases to mess with Russia's economy).
The end of Iran economic embargo allowing them to export Oil again.
No agreement from Opec members because of their financial situation (they all need cash, so they don't want to reduce production)
and so on...

At the end, nobody will confirm this so it's all speculation

SA is flooding but all other oil exporting countries are following up.
The US got the biggest oil reserve in 50 years. So does Russia etc.
It's all for the good I think, since now oil is a very good investment.

[BTCBinary]

The industry is now having a big shift. The oil industry is becoming overpassed by the electricity industry and that's why I don't believe that oil can be a good investment

[tyz]

I believe that the electricity industry is overhyped for now. It will have an impact in 10, 15 or 20 years from now. Why? The infrastructure is far away from providing the mass of people with electricity that is needed for millions of cars. Fast growing countries in Asia could not provide this. Even well developed and relatively small countries like France or Germany with a great and stable electricity network are having problems to provide this. Just look at the States for example, power loss is not an rare event. It would costs trillions to make the world ready for electricity cars.

The industry is now having a big shift. The oil industry is becoming overpassed by the electricity industry and that's why I don't believe that oil can be a good investment

[Cyaren]

Oil will obviously rise in the long term due to the diminishing supply and ever growing demand, plus the ever growing currency base.

So it's not going to be a surprise when oil does go up by a lot.

[deisik]

I want to know why OIL prices are falling if we are reaching more and more scarcity levels in this century. Is OPEC responsible for this or the markets? I could never understand with such a high demand for oil why is it going for so cheap? Personally I am all in for renewable energy myself.

Actually, they are about 25% up from the lows of January (I'm looking at Brent prices)

[deisik]

I believe that the electricity industry is overhyped for now. It will have an impact in 10, 15 or 20 years from now. Why? The infrastructure is far away from providing the mass of people with electricity that is needed for millions of cars. Fast growing countries in Asia could not provide this. Even well developed and relatively small countries like France or Germany with a great and stable electricity network are having problems to provide this. Just look at the States for example, power loss is not an rare event. It would costs trillions to make the world ready for electricity cars.

Pure trillions won't do this. The world needs a major technological paradigm shift to make electric cars a new reality (not just a fancy toy for the riches), something like cheap superconductivity at room temperatures...

Or energy storage devices orders of magnitude more capacious than what we have as of today

[criptix]

So where is the oversupply of oil going when there is no storage capacity left and no reducing of supply?

You should at first answer how the US shale oil industry is going, which according to your logic should have long been dead by now

Dead? I still see ongoing 12 month in a row production decline you troll.
And that is exactly what i said and you denied

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/01/eia-us-shale-oil-output-to-decline-116-000-b-d-in-february.html
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/downturn-reaches-us-shale-industry-as-production-scaled-back/article28156309/?service=mobile

I will paraphrase my question:

Are you just dumb or a retard?

[criptix]

I believe that the electricity industry is overhyped for now. It will have an impact in 10, 15 or 20 years from now. Why? The infrastructure is far away from providing the mass of people with electricity that is needed for millions of cars. Fast growing countries in Asia could not provide this. Even well developed and relatively small countries like France or Germany with a great and stable electricity network are having problems to provide this. Just look at the States for example, power loss is not an rare event. It would costs trillions to make the world ready for electricity cars.

Pure trillions won't do this. The world needs a major technological paradigm shift to make electrical cars a new reality (not just a fancy toy for the riches), something like cheap superconductivity at room temperatures...

Or energy storage devices orders of magnitude more capacious than what we have as of today

Please refrain from talking bullshit.
You have no clue what superconducticity at room temp would mean for mankind and why we want it.
Energy storage already works with current tech.

Stop throwing buzzwords to sound intelligent 

[Barnabe]

With batteries orders of magnitude better than we have today you could almost buy the car and throw it away when the battery is depleated 

[tyz]

You are actually right. I correct myself. Trillions of trillions are needed. 

China is forcing governmental members to use electricity cars only. And they are going to establish minimal limits for electricity cars sales.

I believe that the electricity industry is overhyped for now. It will have an impact in 10, 15 or 20 years from now. Why? The infrastructure is far away from providing the mass of people with electricity that is needed for millions of cars. Fast growing countries in Asia could not provide this. Even well developed and relatively small countries like France or Germany with a great and stable electricity network are having problems to provide this. Just look at the States for example, power loss is not an rare event. It would costs trillions to make the world ready for electricity cars.

Pure trillions won't do this. The world needs a major technological paradigm shift to make electric cars a new reality (not just a fancy toy for the riches), something like cheap superconductivity at room temperatures...

Or energy storage devices orders of magnitude more capacious than what we have as of today

[fricircled]

With batteries orders of magnitude better than we have today you could almost buy the car and throw it away when the battery is depleated 

But the electrical car is still more expensive than the petrol car without help from the governments. I think it is unfair.

[MedaR]

With batteries orders of magnitude better than we have today you could almost buy the car and throw it away when the battery is depleated 

But the electrical car is still more expensive than the petrol car without help from the governments. I think it is unfair.

But this will not be forever.

I believe that with mass production we can come to some reasonable prices.
But I wonder how we will produce all that electricity needed to supply such vehicles with electric power?
This will be major impact one day, on power consumption, so we are at the start again.

[criptix]

With batteries orders of magnitude better than we have today you could almost buy the car and throw it away when the battery is depleated 

But the electrical car is still more expensive than the petrol car without help from the governments. I think it is unfair.

But this will not be forever.

I believe that with mass production we can come to some reasonable prices.
But I wonder how we will produce all that electricity needed to supply such vehicles with electric power?
This will be major impact one day, on power consumption, so we are at the start again.

Exactly.
And there comes renewables and fusion.
For the former we need more research in meta materials and for the latter a theory for HTS. (If we have that everyone will have a miniature fusion reactor in his car/home - atleast if you have the $$$ )

[Yakamoto]

With batteries orders of magnitude better than we have today you could almost buy the car and throw it away when the battery is depleated 

But the electrical car is still more expensive than the petrol car without help from the governments. I think it is unfair.

But this will not be forever.

I believe that with mass production we can come to some reasonable prices.
But I wonder how we will produce all that electricity needed to supply such vehicles with electric power?
This will be major impact one day, on power consumption, so we are at the start again.

Exactly.
And there comes renewables and fusion.
For the former we need more research in meta materials and for the latter a theory for HTS. (If we have that everyone will have a miniature fusion reactor in his car/home - atleast if you have the $$$ )

I think fusion might actually not be that far out, only a few decades or so before they're starting to be rolled out like nuclear power plants around the globe. All that we need is a working reactor and there will be nearly infinite energy available for everyone.

I don't think that there will ever be a fusion reactor in every home, it is either too dangerous or too unfeasible. Replacing oil energy with fusion energy is more likely, and electric cars becoming more viable would be a consequence of fusion reactors.