Long term OIL

[fricircled]

I bought some oil stocks because the potential is there. The world is not ready (by a long shot) to say goodbye to oil and embrace green power. With the price going to 30 dollar and oil producing countries keep increasing their production, the price could easily fall back another 5-10 dollar.

I also did this .stocking oil..because i heard  and see .on a natgeo if im not mistaken oil will be drain by estimated year 2023 . So it is not avisable for me to biy a car that will use only for 6-7 years .

If the world was running out of oil in the next 7 years, nobody would be buying new cars which run on gasoline. 
We still have 40-50 years before this happens, and you can expect technology to compensate before that
A dated article which explains this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/oil/9867659/Why-the-world-isnt-running-out-of-oil.html

40-50 years is by far on the short side of estimates. Most estimates have us around 100 years still.

These so called "estimates" are not worth a shit

Yeah, it's probably better to pretend oil is infinite instead of trying to project how long oil could possibly last based on the information available. 

The oil supply is unlimited if the oil price is high enough. At present we have shale oil, in the future, we will have very deep sea oil.

[bryant.coleman]

The oil supply is unlimited if the oil price is high enough. At present we have shale oil, in the future, we will have very deep sea oil.

There are huge deposits of crude oil in the Arctic region, which can be extracted at a cost of around $60 per barrel. However, IMO, this cost will come down significantly in the next few years, as technology advances. If extraction becomes profitable at $25 per barrel, then we will be having enough oil to last at least 200 years. After that we can think about the deep sea oil.

[Jmild1]

Oil is not only for cars, it's also for plastics, cooking and other things that we use in everyday. Even though we replace petrol engine cars, it doesn't make the price decrease significantly because there are still other ways that we use for oil.

[STT]

Plastic can be recycled in some cases.  There are alternatives to oil, I agree its not likely we run out just that it might be better to choose other things.  The same argument came with coal and worries of known stocks running low, the world relied on coal and steam power greatly at one point but its not a problem now and of course coal is still here being used anyway.   I expect oil is used in 100 years but we are less reliant hopefully.

The ideal is to take most from sun and sea as we have so much, oil is very hard to beat as its such cheap energy so its a case of technology improving efficiency and it'll probably happen

[bryant.coleman]

Oil is not only for cars, it's also for plastics, cooking and other things that we use in everyday. Even though we replace petrol engine cars, it doesn't make the price decrease significantly because there are still other ways that we use for oil.

Plastics and other chemicals such as asphalt and solvents can be prepared from non-petroleum raw materials as well. For example, styrene-butadiene rubbers can be replaced with natural rubber manufactured from the latex of Hevea brasiliensis. These raw products are less polluting than those derived from petroleum deposits.

[deisik]

Oil is not only for cars, it's also for plastics, cooking and other things that we use in everyday. Even though we replace petrol engine cars, it doesn't make the price decrease significantly because there are still other ways that we use for oil.

Plastics and other chemicals such as asphalt and solvents can be prepared from non-petroleum raw materials as well. For example, styrene-butadiene rubbers can be replaced with natural rubber manufactured from the latex of Hevea brasiliensis. These raw products are less polluting than those derived from petroleum deposits.

That's why there are no more forests in Brazil?

[bryant.coleman]

Oil is not only for cars, it's also for plastics, cooking and other things that we use in everyday. Even though we replace petrol engine cars, it doesn't make the price decrease significantly because there are still other ways that we use for oil.

Plastics and other chemicals such as asphalt and solvents can be prepared from non-petroleum raw materials as well. For example, styrene-butadiene rubbers can be replaced with natural rubber manufactured from the latex of Hevea brasiliensis. These raw products are less polluting than those derived from petroleum deposits.

That's why there are no more forests in Brazil?

During the last 45 years, Brazil has lost 60 million hectares of forest. But latex extraction was not one of the reasons for this massive deforestation. The main reasons were illegal Mahagony exports, land clearing for Soya farms and pasture, wildcat gold mining, petroleum extraction.etc. However, the latex extraction devastated the indigenous population. During the 1900-1945 period, some 250,000 Brazilian tribals (25% of the total tribal population) were enslaved in various latex plantations. By 1945, less than 10,000 of them were alive.

Right now one of the major threats is the crude oil exploration was being carried out across the Amazon basin. Hopefully lower oil prices will help to slow down the deforestation as a result of this.

[Superways]

40-50 years is by far on the short side of estimates. Most estimates have us around 100 years still.

These so called "estimates" are not worth a shit

Yeah, it's probably better to pretend oil is infinite instead of trying to project how long oil could possibly last based on the information available. 

Such projections simply don't make much sense, since within a hundred years a multitude of events will certainly happen that will render these predictions (the proper name) utterly useless and pointless...

Look at what happened during the last one hundred years (to get a clue, lol)

Yeah, these predictions are just useless if we look at the last 100 years, but if we look there more carefully we will notice that the usage of oil at those past 100 years was not much that which is now. But still there are a number of other sources going to develop each day, like electric vehicles, solar panel etc.

[Slowturtleinc]

Oil is rebounding due to cartel speculation of controlling out put flow. It has made the CAD go up significantly and I expect it to continue along this trend if the word holds true that they will limit production. If it turns to be wrong,then we could end up back at 36 a barrel(CAD)

[jaysabi]

40-50 years is by far on the short side of estimates. Most estimates have us around 100 years still.

These so called "estimates" are not worth a shit

Yeah, it's probably better to pretend oil is infinite instead of trying to project how long oil could possibly last based on the information available.  

Such projections simply don't make much sense, since within a hundred years a multitude of events will certainly happen that will render these predictions (the proper name) utterly useless and pointless...

Look at what happened during the last one hundred years (to get a clue, lol)

They make sense in that it's the best we can estimate given everything we know, and it would be foolish to not make projections just because they can't be 100% accurate. Oil is too vital to the world economy and energy needs to live in complete ignorance, which is what not making projections would be. No one is claiming 100% accuracy. When new information becomes available (such as a new reserve located or a change in the global consumption rate) the projections are updated. The projections are immensely useful because this knowledge directly impacts where investment goes (into searching for more oil, extracting already proven reserves, or developing alternative energy sources). Not making the projections is utterly idiotic.

[jaysabi]

Oil is not only for cars, it's also for plastics, cooking and other things that we use in everyday. Even though we replace petrol engine cars, it doesn't make the price decrease significantly because there are still other ways that we use for oil.

I would think it's pretty safe to say that automobile and transportation use dwarfs all other uses of oil.

[Oscoda]

Oil is rebounding due to cartel speculation of controlling out put flow. It has made the CAD go up significantly and I expect it to continue along this trend if the word holds true that they will limit production. If it turns to be wrong,then we could end up back at 36 a barrel(CAD)

The oil price rebounded from 28 to 38 in just a matter of 2/3 weeks. I do see that Russia and OPEC are increasing their production which means the price can go down again.
Therefore i am not buying atm.

[bryant.coleman]

The oil price rebounded from 28 to 38 in just a matter of 2/3 weeks. I do see that Russia and OPEC are increasing their production which means the price can go down again.
Therefore i am not buying atm.

The rebound happened because at $28 a barrel, the crude was too much under-priced. It was not a result of increase in demand or a reduction in supplies. And from where did you get the data regarding Russia and OPEC? According to February 2016 data, the Russian production is stable, and the data for March is not available yet.

[deisik]

40-50 years is by far on the short side of estimates. Most estimates have us around 100 years still.

These so called "estimates" are not worth a shit

Yeah, it's probably better to pretend oil is infinite instead of trying to project how long oil could possibly last based on the information available. 

Such projections simply don't make much sense, since within a hundred years a multitude of events will certainly happen that will render these predictions (the proper name) utterly useless and pointless...

Look at what happened during the last one hundred years (to get a clue, lol)

They make sense in that it's the best we can estimate given everything we know, and it would be foolish to not make projections just because they can't be 100% accurate. Oil is too vital to the world economy and energy needs to live in complete ignorance, which is what not making projections would be. No one is claiming 100% accuracy. When new information becomes available (such as a new reserve located or a change in the global consumption rate) the projections are updated. The projections are immensely useful because this knowledge directly impacts where investment goes (into searching for more oil, extracting already proven reserves, or developing alternative energy sources). Not making the projections is utterly idiotic.

No one is talking about avoiding making well-founded projections and calculated assumptions altogether, but projections for a hundred years ahead are flat-out fishy and sound quite phony...

Like the Soviets promising a brighter future, wtf

[bryant.coleman]

Not a source of income, of course (though some may disagree on this, lol), but the KSA doesn't have debt either. There were rumors about privatization of Aramco if things would get from bad to worse, but nothing seem to have changed since then...

So they would certainly last longer if they decided to use all the means

The GCC nations have started selling treasury notes and bonds, to fund their growing treasury deficit. I agree that Saudi Arabia owns far more foreign debt, than it's own federal debt. But this situation will not last for more than a few years, if the crude oil prices remain in the $40-$50 range.

And I am quite skeptical about the Aramco stake sale. Right now, the market capitalization of Rosneft is around $50 billion. At the most, Aramco may be worth 10x this amount ($500 billion). A 5% stake sale will bring in around $25 billion, which will fail to cover an year of Saudi budget deficit.

[jaysabi]

The oil price rebounded from 28 to 38 in just a matter of 2/3 weeks. I do see that Russia and OPEC are increasing their production which means the price can go down again.
Therefore i am not buying atm.

The rebound happened because at $28 a barrel, the crude was too much under-priced. It was not a result of increase in demand or a reduction in supplies. And from where did you get the data regarding Russia and OPEC? According to February 2016 data, the Russian production is stable, and the data for March is not available yet.

Underpriced how? If supply isn't decreasing and demand isn't increasing, the price shouldn't change.

[jaysabi]

40-50 years is by far on the short side of estimates. Most estimates have us around 100 years still.

These so called "estimates" are not worth a shit

Yeah, it's probably better to pretend oil is infinite instead of trying to project how long oil could possibly last based on the information available.  

Such projections simply don't make much sense, since within a hundred years a multitude of events will certainly happen that will render these predictions (the proper name) utterly useless and pointless...

Look at what happened during the last one hundred years (to get a clue, lol)

They make sense in that it's the best we can estimate given everything we know, and it would be foolish to not make projections just because they can't be 100% accurate. Oil is too vital to the world economy and energy needs to live in complete ignorance, which is what not making projections would be. No one is claiming 100% accuracy. When new information becomes available (such as a new reserve located or a change in the global consumption rate) the projections are updated. The projections are immensely useful because this knowledge directly impacts where investment goes (into searching for more oil, extracting already proven reserves, or developing alternative energy sources). Not making the projections is utterly idiotic.

No one is talking about avoiding making well-founded projections and calculated assumptions altogether, but projections for a hundred years ahead are flat-out fishy and sound quite phony...

Like the Soviets promising a brighter future, wtf

Again, you're not talking about the same thing as me, or you're not understanding what I'm saying. When they make a projection on when oil will run out, it's based on usually three key pieces of information: proven oil reserves, rate of consumption, and expected change in consumption rate based on the current trend line. Then there are many lesser factors that might be considered, like speculation on finding new reserves or changes in technology that allow greater access to difficult to access oil. The projection is just a number based on the three main pierces of information that let us estimate how long our oil supply will last. If that number happens to be 100 years, they're not claiming to be projecting what the oil situation will be in 100 years, they're simply saying that oil will last 100 years if nothing changes.

Things always change, but this is the best we can reasonably do, and it's necessary information to know, because the difference between oil lasting 100 years and oil lasting 20 years is a tremendous difference that will vastly reshape global priorities.

[deisik]

Again, you're not talking about the same thing as me, or you're not understanding what I'm saying. When they make a projection on when oil will run out, it's based on usually three key pieces of information: proven oil reserves, rate of consumption, and expected change in consumption rate based on the current trend line. Then there are many lesser factors that might be considered, like speculation on finding new reserves or changes in technology that allow greater access to difficult to access oil. The projection is just a number based on the three main pierces of information that let us estimate how long our oil supply will last. If that number happens to be 100 years, they're not claiming to be projecting what the oil situation will be in 100 years, they're simply saying that oil will last 100 years if nothing changes.

Then it is not even a prediction, just idle talk at taxpayer's expense

[jaysabi]

Again, you're not talking about the same thing as me, or you're not understanding what I'm saying. When they make a projection on when oil will run out, it's based on usually three key pieces of information: proven oil reserves, rate of consumption, and expected change in consumption rate based on the current trend line. Then there are many lesser factors that might be considered, like speculation on finding new reserves or changes in technology that allow greater access to difficult to access oil. The projection is just a number based on the three main pierces of information that let us estimate how long our oil supply will last. If that number happens to be 100 years, they're not claiming to be projecting what the oil situation will be in 100 years, they're simply saying that oil will last 100 years if nothing changes.

Then it is not even a prediction, just idle talk at taxpayer's expense

1) it doesn't have to be taxpayer's expense. There are plenty of think tanks and public policy groups, not to mention corporations and university economics programs, all publishing these studies.
2) projections are not "idle talk."
3) you're still displaying a non-understanding of what a projection is by saying that "well-founded projections and calculated assumptions" are fine, but projections are "idle talk" at the same time. The methodology is largely the same for projections, so you're arguing both for and against it at the same time. Either you don't realize this, or you need to explain your point better so it's not a steady stream of contradictions.

[bryant.coleman]

The oil price rebounded from 28 to 38 in just a matter of 2/3 weeks. I do see that Russia and OPEC are increasing their production which means the price can go down again.
Therefore i am not buying atm.

The rebound happened because at $28 a barrel, the crude was too much under-priced. It was not a result of increase in demand or a reduction in supplies. And from where did you get the data regarding Russia and OPEC? According to February 2016 data, the Russian production is stable, and the data for March is not available yet.

Underpriced how? If supply isn't decreasing and demand isn't increasing, the price shouldn't change.

Under-priced in a sense that in most of the producing countries, the cost of production is higher than $28 per barrel. Check this chart:



Countries such as Nigeria, Angola, Norway, United Kingdom, and Canada are considered to be major oil producers (and exporters). Right now, many of them are pumping out crude at a net loss.

The situation is a little bit complex, as the "cost per barrel" includes the capital expenses as well. This investment is already made. So right now, the oil companies have to spend only for the operational expenses + loan repayment for the capital expenses.