Long term OIL

[criptix]

Math is not idle talk. You are idle talk. Math is math. If you want to prove your point, take a projection and mathematically show why it is not accurate. Since you cannot do this, your further assertions that projections are idle talk is actually the only idle talk happening here.

Triple lol. Could you please be so kind as to first show how are you going to describe real world events with math? A theory of chances? Okay, but what will a possibility of a given long-term projection outcome (100 years, as you said) be if you take into account the possibilities of changes in the factors that may and will actually happen during that time span? Infinitesimal or just laughable? Let's get real, after all. And how on earth are you going to factor in the events which you can't even imagine (to happen), i.e. can't account for altogether, but which, nevertheless, do happen occasionally, and more often than not with devastating consequences, wtf?

Math is math, and it points a finger at you

You are right, I have to add that maybe we can theoretically show everything with math but in real world current math and stat cannot describe many of phenomena of the world such as oil price.

If the world is truly stochastic, you can't do this even theoretically using however advanced mathematic or statistic concepts. Ultimately, you will be endlessly trying to account for the repercussions of your own calculations detonating through the world (aka the butterfly effect)...

Even a broken clock would be more correct than that

Wtf are you two mental?

Future mathematical projections which you also could call a mathematical modell can describe reality very good. Just open you eyes and look around you. Nearly every single thing you see is based on some mathematical modells/projections - from your car to your weather forecast.

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[BitcoinBlackjack]

Doubt oil will ever hit 100$ a barrel again

[tn211]

Doubt oil will ever hit 100$ a barrel again

Price is steadily moving up. 45 dollars already. I do think it will go up. at least to 80 dollars, which why i bought and am waiting for it to reach to 80.
Then I will slowly start selling again.

[expert4knowledge]

Math is not idle talk. You are idle talk. Math is math. If you want to prove your point, take a projection and mathematically show why it is not accurate. Since you cannot do this, your further assertions that projections are idle talk is actually the only idle talk happening here.

Triple lol. Could you please be so kind as to first show how are you going to describe real world events with math? A theory of chances? Okay, but what will a possibility of a given long-term projection outcome (100 years, as you said) be if you take into account the possibilities of changes in the factors that may and will actually happen during that time span? Infinitesimal or just laughable? Let's get real, after all. And how on earth are you going to factor in the events which you can't even imagine (to happen), i.e. can't account for altogether, but which, nevertheless, do happen occasionally, and more often than not with devastating consequences, wtf?

Math is math, and it points a finger at you

You are right, I have to add that maybe we can theoretically show everything with math but in real world current math and stat cannot describe many of phenomena of the world such as oil price.

If the world is truly stochastic, you can't do this even theoretically using however advanced mathematic or statistic concepts. Ultimately, you will be endlessly trying to account for the repercussions of your own calculations detonating through the world (aka the butterfly effect)...

Even a broken clock would be more correct than that

Yes, when it comes to consider butterfly effect then we can say that we cannot do anything to achieve it but we may be able to get some estimations though.

[STT]

Doubt oil will ever hit 100$ a barrel again

Certainly it will be this high again because dollar value has not accounted for all the new money produced in recent years.  100 used to be extremely high and became a reasonable price in recent years for opec, mainly its because there are more dollars available far more then new people or business in the world so the value of goods exchangeable keeps falling.
Saudi has one of the fastest growing countries in the world, just their own energy needs in future will take up more consumption then you have India where most of the population is under 30 and a few other countries.  Actually China has peaked in numbers but certainly their demand could rise if they keep using machines more.

If we are talking about Iran then they require a higher price to make a profit, the main reason Saudi is happy to walk away is because they able to profit at 40 easily.  Only their excess budget requires more money but the base line is fine for them but Iran and other countries cannot operate a well without greater cost then this, 100 is possible still

[deisik]

Yes, when it comes to consider butterfly effect then we can say that we cannot do anything to achieve it but we may be able to get some estimations though.

My point is that anyone making 100 years projections (sic) in respect to oil (or just anything concerning human activities, for that matter) is either pursuing their secretive ends (whatever they might be) or just clueless...

And the clueless tend to take them seriously

[Sithara007]

Doubt oil will ever hit 100$ a barrel again

No. Even $60 per barrel is doubtful. Right now, some of the United States shale oil producers are having cost of production as low as $30 per barrel. That means that the prices will remain low, as the demand is declining.

[silentkiller]

Why oil is continuing to go up, is there any deal made on doha to freeze the production? I think zombies are buying again.

[deisik]

Why oil is continuing to go up, is there any deal made on doha to freeze the production? I think zombies are buying again.

HFT algos are bidding the price up...

[MaxTax]

Why oil is continuing to go up, is there any deal made on doha to freeze the production? I think zombies are buying again.

The US is limiting production and next month the opec will decide if they will do the same. Guess they will do that which give them room for the price to increase.
Overall i don't expect it to go much higher though.

[botany]

Why oil is continuing to go up, is there any deal made on doha to freeze the production? I think zombies are buying again.

The US is limiting production and next month the opec will decide if they will do the same. Guess they will do that which give them room for the price to increase.
Overall i don't expect it to go much higher though.

There are too many forces pulling in different directions at OPEC.
Unless Saudi Arabia takes a call (and decreases its market share), the price is not going to decrease.

[expert4knowledge]

Why oil is continuing to go up, is there any deal made on doha to freeze the production? I think zombies are buying again.

The US is limiting production and next month the opec will decide if they will do the same. Guess they will do that which give them room for the price to increase.
Overall i don't expect it to go much higher though.

It seems that we have to wait to see the changes but trends show that we have to expect an increase in future.

[STT]

There are too many forces pulling in different directions at OPEC.
Unless Saudi Arabia takes a call (and decreases its market share), the price is not going to decrease.

This is capitalism, open competetion for market by multiple participants.  Its a pain if you are an inefficient producer but the biggest winner is anyone who needed oil which is the larger world.   India has no oil, China really not much and these are giant countries wanting to expand and still with many people who cannot run a machine because of its costs.

I see it all as positive as a free market should be, personally I'd gain from high oil but its not to be and I really dislike fixed or controlled markets because it usually means people and thats the common poor often that suffer most.  Saudi will have to cut their budget costs but for now they can spend their wealth fund reserves, rich short term.

I do wonder how changes in balance alter the wider world, Japan and USA with massive debt not nearly as lean and mean as Saudi bringing in their new borrowed debt schemes.  I know who I'd rate, this could alter reserve dollar and so bitcoin also possibly

[botany]

There are too many forces pulling in different directions at OPEC.
Unless Saudi Arabia takes a call (and decreases its market share), the price is not going to decrease.

This is capitalism, open competetion for market by multiple participants.  Its a pain if you are an inefficient producer but the biggest winner is anyone who needed oil which is the larger world.   India has no oil, China really not much and these are giant countries wanting to expand and still with many people who cannot run a machine because of its costs.

I see it all as positive as a free market should be, personally I'd gain from high oil but its not to be and I really dislike fixed or controlled markets because it usually means people and thats the common poor often that suffer most.  Saudi will have to cut their budget costs but for now they can spend their wealth fund reserves, rich short term.

I do wonder how changes in balance alter the wider world, Japan and USA with massive debt not nearly as lean and mean as Saudi bringing in their new borrowed debt schemes.  I know who I'd rate, this could alter reserve dollar and so bitcoin also possibly

That is correct. I am favour of the market determining the price of any commodity and this artificial scarcity created by OPEC in the past really distorted markets. Speculators dealing in commodity derivatives managed to do this in late 2000's. For now, it does look like crude has found its true price.

[bryant.coleman]

Why oil is continuing to go up, is there any deal made on doha to freeze the production? I think zombies are buying again.

It is a combination of factors. The United States crude oil production has gone down below 9 million barrels per day. And there was a reduction in the output from countries such as Libya, South Sudan.etc as a result of civil war. That said, I expect the American production to stabilize now, since the operations are profitable at current rates ($48 per barrel).

[deisik]

Why oil is continuing to go up, is there any deal made on doha to freeze the production? I think zombies are buying again.

It is a combination of factors. The United States crude oil production has gone down below 9 million barrels per day. And the there was a reduction in the output from countries such as Libya, South Sudan.etc as a result of civil war. That said, I expect the American production to stabilize now, since the operations are profitable at current rates ($48 per barrel).

You are again confusing Brent with WTI oil (which price presently is at $46.02 for the delivery in June). I've heard rumors that American shale oil producers are actively hedging their future production right now...

Let's wait and see if oil doesn't collapse back to lower 30s

[STT]

And the there was a reduction in the output from countries such as Libya, South Sudan.etc as a result of civil war.

Libya is restricted, they are fools who could be rich but prefer to fight and be poor apparently.  They are destroying assets, even in Syria the rebels do not blow up refineries and wells but just aim to capture it intact.   Amazing for terrorists basically, the head men respect money and its power more then people

Another factor Ive read of is China building up massive reserves.   As they receive so many dollars, this store could be considered superior to the alternatives they have while suppressing their own exchange rate worth.
Im not sure how long the Chinese can keep on importing oil with an economy not growing as fast as it used to, maybe they will find some kind of use for it in an exportable good.   If they do cease all extra buying this will destabilize the balance back to supply excess leading to lower prices presumably

[bryant.coleman]

Libya is restricted, they are fools who could be rich but prefer to fight and be poor apparently.  They are destroying assets, even in Syria the rebels do not blow up refineries and wells but just aim to capture it intact.   Amazing for terrorists basically, the head men respect money and its power more then people

The situation there is quite complex. The rebels in the East want to sell their oil, but the government will not allow that. They have impounded tankers carrying rebel oil, and have detained the crew. This in turn has angered the rebels and they are setting fire to the oil wells and destroying the machinery. I don't know which side should be supported here.

[STT]

Thats sounds similar to the Kurds in North of Iraq and they have proved themselves invaluable in defence of the country, seems foolish not support and allow open commerce in all parts of the country.    The Kurds still argue on taxes and policies relating to oil sales but luckily nobody is at war over it.   The rebels sound on the wrong path there because the damage requires money to fix which only puts them back in the hands of main government.

If rebels gave some percentage of sales taken, they could proceed on the basis of allowing greater quantities  of oil to be processed rather then giving a higher percentage of the profits which I guess is the problem now.  Eventually government would give way  to the lost revenue situation, with broken wells it puts them into stalemate.    The country is so new now that they dont even know how to argue the points I think

[Adrayrd]

Oil is big but not that big. Many different forms of energy and alternate products that are replacing oil every day. I'll laugh when OPEC is left in shambles

lol how do you mean not that big?
cant you see how much money their making with it. the only thing is
that you need allot of money to invest other wise you've got nothing at all.