Long term OIL

[deisik]

I think the price of oil will rise in the long term as there is limited supply. The cheap oil will be consumed soon.

Oil is not like Bitcoin, its supply is not limited in the same way the number of bitcoins is capped. Oil extracting technologies are developing constantly which leads to lower costs of oil production. I'd rather say that we just entered the era of cheap oil (since 2014, to be precise). The price will hardly go above $70 per barrel for any longer periods of time...

Since shale (tight) oil producers will inevitably bring it down

[yayayo]

I think the price of oil will rise in the long term as there is limited supply. The cheap oil will be consumed soon.

You forget that technology could result in alternatives.
Millions of dollars have been poured into companies which are working on renewable energy sources. Should one of these become economically feasible, there will be no reason for the world to continue to guzzle oil.

Technology could also result in more efficient ways to utilize oil and its derivatives as a source of energy. Technology could also result in more discoveries of oil deposits and more efficient methods to exploit deposits. And technology could also result in entirely new fields of application for oil derivatives totally independent of its former use as a energy source. Reality is not as simple as the media and renewable energy advocates suggest.

While it's true that oil reserves are limited and renewable energy is a cleaner and more environment friendly alternative to oil, you have to be aware that there is huge installed industry base dependent on oil. In addition, oil derivatives are also used for various other products (for example plastics). The world's oil consumption will not end abruptly, especially considering that we still have significant population growth.

ya.ya.yo!

[pPurkey]

Oil price will skyrocket when we go into ww3

[deisik]

Oil price will skyrocket when we go into ww3

Yeah, and after it is over, one barrel of oil will cost 50 kopecks

On a serious note though, if we really go into WWIII, I'm afraid the price of oil will soon be irrelevant since there will be neither buyers nor sellers. As I understand it, crude oil is not very useful for lighting as well as heating caves, so we will have to wait for a few millennia until another round of civilization gets well under way

[ridery99]

Oil price will skyrocket when we go into ww3

Yeah, and after it is over, one barrel of oil will cost 50 kopecks

On a serious note though, if we really go into WWIII, I'm afraid the price of oil will soon be irrelevant since there will be neither buyers nor sellers. As I understand it, crude oil is not very useful for lighting as well as heating caves, so we will have to wait for a few millennia until another round of civilization gets well under way

Even the coming nuclear war will have it's winners and losers just like WW2 did... For example, by "erasing" North America rest of the planet will live on with less ecosystems but societies can still function.

[deisik]

Oil price will skyrocket when we go into ww3

Yeah, and after it is over, one barrel of oil will cost 50 kopecks

On a serious note though, if we really go into WWIII, I'm afraid the price of oil will soon be irrelevant since there will be neither buyers nor sellers. As I understand it, crude oil is not very useful for lighting as well as heating caves, so we will have to wait for a few millennia until another round of civilization gets well under way

Even the coming nuclear war will have it's winners and losers just like WW2 did... For example, by "erasing" North America rest of the planet will live on with less ecosystems but societies can still function.

Indeed, some societies will survive, and they might even preserve some rudimentary technologies like wheels and stone axes, but the real question is how much oil will cost then, provided it will cost anything at all in the first place. By the way, rumors have surfaced recently that the elites have been massively building bunkers all over New Zealand...

Just in case, does NZ have any oil reserves?

[Shady]

Oil has hit lows because of new arctic drilling operations in places around the Southern Ocean.

People have started voting in pipelines which boast a steady supply for consistent rates.

Nobody would see a recession come worse than it already is we're almost out of what the global markets experienced.

After the presidential elections more losses should heal themself, although too modest returns can still be made.

[botany]

The obvious facts are now dawning on everybody.
With renewable sources of energy catching up, the future for oil prices (especially gasoline) isn't bright.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-22/the-tesla-shock-global-gasoline-consumption-has-all-but-peaked

[yayayo]

The obvious facts are now dawning on everybody.
With renewable sources of energy catching up, the future for oil prices (especially gasoline) isn't bright.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-22/the-tesla-shock-global-gasoline-consumption-has-all-but-peaked

It's far too early to speak of a "tesla shock" for the oil industry as a whole. You have to keep in mind that this is a 25 year prediction. There have been a lot of forecasts in the past that were totally wrong. And even if it's right, it only encompasses gasoline consumption for automobiles. If you look at the prediction chart, you will actually see that total oil demand will rise nonetheless, driven by the maritime, freight, aviation and petrochemical industry.

I can agree that the increase in demand will be slowing down. But transition takes time and there are a lot of applications without an substitute for oil. So peak oil is not yet here, but peak demand growth is in.

ya.ya.yo!

[Yakamoto]

Oil has hit lows because of new arctic drilling operations in places around the Southern Ocean.

People have started voting in pipelines which boast a steady supply for consistent rates.

Nobody would see a recession come worse than it already is we're almost out of what the global markets experienced.

After the presidential elections more losses should heal themself, although too modest returns can still be made.

There are so many reservoirs and other extraction methods opening up it doesn't surprise me that everything is happening with the price and being low. OPEC was basically one of the biggest impactors on the value, and it's a good thing they're starting to taper their production down.

The coming recession will be amplified by the value of oil, but it will likely not be the cause of it.

[botany]

The obvious facts are now dawning on everybody.
With renewable sources of energy catching up, the future for oil prices (especially gasoline) isn't bright.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-22/the-tesla-shock-global-gasoline-consumption-has-all-but-peaked

It's far too early to speak of a "tesla shock" for the oil industry as a whole. You have to keep in mind that this is a 25 year prediction. There have been a lot of forecasts in the past that were totally wrong. And even if it's right, it only encompasses gasoline consumption for automobiles. If you look at the prediction chart, you will actually see that total oil demand will rise nonetheless, driven by the maritime, freight, aviation and petrochemical industry.

I can agree that the increase in demand will be slowing down. But transition takes time and there are a lot of applications without an substitute for oil. So peak oil is not yet here, but peak demand growth is in.

ya.ya.yo!

Petrochemicals is one application which i think might be tough to substitute, but would it result in sufficient support of oil's price. Automobile use seemed to be one aspect where growth is consistent, especially in developing countries. Unfortunately for oil, substitutes seem to be breaking ground there.

[STT]

options for Jan 17 for a strike price of 17-20

January 17th  is stuck after xmas and the current holidays, theres little volume and events between then and now.   Couldnt really pick a less likely place for oil to suddenly change price that rapidly.   We do have people buying it every day after all, its not like its a speculative share price on some non profitable enterprise.  Its one of the worlds most in demand commodities, not super easy to produce alot of suddenly.  
Could happen but I think it takes a war not some mood shift, Fed policy can do it but even then its months away if market doesnt like something big.

It is the nation which is an enterprise that produces goods and services. And the government is, as you might have already guessed, its board of directors.

A board of directors is far more productive then most of government amounts to.   National government secures a border is the best argument but it doesnt enable GDP beyond that.   Government can represent the costs and depreciation of a business if anything, hardly the brains of the operation more what slows it down and restricts its growth.   It'd have to be a very lousy set of directors to be such a massive drag on a company, possible but not the norm

[Sithara007]

LOL.... the brent crude prices are declining once more, after the talks between Russia and the OPEC failed. These people need to understand that OPEC and Russia no longer have a monopoly on this. Right now, the biggest players are the American frackers.

[deisik]

options for Jan 17 for a strike price of 17-20

January 17th  is stuck after xmas and the current holidays, theres little volume and events between then and now.   Couldnt really pick a less likely place for oil to suddenly change price that rapidly.   We do have people buying it every day after all, its not like its a speculative share price on some non profitable enterprise.  Its one of the worlds most in demand commodities, not super easy to produce alot of suddenly.   
Could happen but I think it takes a war not some mood shift, Fed policy can do it but even then its months away if market doesnt like something big.

It is the nation which is an enterprise that produces goods and services. And the government is, as you might have already guessed, its board of directors.

A board of directors is far more productive then most of government amounts to.   National government secures a border is the best argument but it doesnt enable GDP beyond that. Government can represent the costs and depreciation of a business if anything, hardly the brains of the operation more what slows it down and restricts its growth.   It'd have to be a very lousy set of directors to be such a massive drag on a company, possible but not the norm

That's mainly because there is no competition, and government is a power monopolist of sorts. Power itself is not negotiable and doesn't tolerate competition due to its nature. Really, if you've got power why on earth would you want to negotiate with anyone? So we essentially have what we would have with any other monopolist out there. Competition between governments could potentially change that to the better, but I think we are not quite there yet...

Provided we will ever be, in the first place

[bryant.coleman]

Right now, there is a fierce competition ongoing between Saudi Arabia and Russia for the market share. The Saudis tried to hijack the acquisition of Essar Oil by Rosneft, by offering a better deal. But it was foiled by Rosneft, who sweetened the offer. They don't care about the prices anymore. It is all about the market share now.

[pitham1]

Right now, there is a fierce competition ongoing between Saudi Arabia and Russia for the market share. The Saudis tried to hijack the acquisition of Essar Oil by Rosneft, by offering a better deal. But it was foiled by Rosneft, who sweetened the offer. They don't care about the prices anymore. It is all about the market share now.

They drove the price low enough to make sure that shale oil from America doesn't eat into their market share. Now they are fighting hard for market share with Russia. Good to see a free market at last, after years of price manipulation by the OPEC cartel.

[bryant.coleman]

And good news once again..... the talks between OPEC and Russia have broken down.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-25/saudis-said-to-pull-out-of-russia-talks-as-opec-deal-no-closer

Hopefully, we can expect crude oil at sub-40 levels once more. The Saudis have no shame. They triggered the price collapse in 2014, by suddenly increasing the production in order to kill the shale oil producers. And now they are asking the other countries to cut back their output.

[adidas]

I think oil with keep sliding and not going up anymore since it is a fossil fuel so it should die and be existinct as the dinosaurs.

[buwaytress]

OPEC has slowly had its power eroded over the years but it would be a mistake to think the Saudis "lost" the price wars. They were willing to absorb years of low oil prices while continuing to build stockpiles and have already found how useful their substantial sovereign wealth funds have become.

American shale lost the battle for now but I think globallythe industry has past denial and is accepting that prices will be stable.

Can oil hit the prediction of this thread? Absolutely in the long term. Will this ever affect bitcoin? If only for its influence on the dollae, absolutely.

[jondeen707]

I think oil with keep sliding and not going up anymore since it is a fossil fuel so it should die and be existinct as the dinosaurs.

Does not look like it's happening in the next few decades at the very least.