Diff thread Jan 26 to Feb 9 picks are closed. 0.2btc prize

[philipma1957]

The last adjustment was missed by all of us.

The new difficulty is   120,033,340,651
The old difficulty was 113,354,299,801

divide you get 5.89%

120,033,340,651/113,354,299,801 = 1.058921812 -1 = 5.892%


https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   395160
Total BTC   15.129M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   120086213298 in 1992 blks
 
Network total   963417.632 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.02 / 513 s



they are stuck on yesterday.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty




Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   120,576,340,401 (+6.37%)
Adjust time:   After 117 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):   967,826,093 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.9 minutes
6 blocks: 53.7 minutes


old thread is here

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1326210.0


We normally use bitcoinwisdom as the official numbers but in a pinch the method above works.

[philipma1957]

Okay  prize is 0.20  btc it will be given away no carryover this time.


No new members.

Joined by Oct 31 2015 and at least 30 good posts.


you get to pick a range you can not pick a range someone else has.

So   

lower is allowed
-2.0
-1.9
-1.7


-0.1

0.0

+0.1
+0.2

+5.0
+5.1

+9.8
+9.9

higher is allowed

here were last contest picks

Closed!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.4 = lanfeusst
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey     +4.9 = ailikun  my error so both can keep this pick  and both would get .1
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda 

final picks are above.


Picks start at  600 blocks in and end at 1200 blocks


this means

 https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   395161
Total BTC   15.129M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   120089932655 in 1991 blks      when this is at 1416 we start picks 
 
Network total   958993.707 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.99 / 515 s

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   395161
Total BTC   15.129M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   120089932655 in 1991 blks when this is at 816 we end picks
 
Network total   958993.707 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.99 / 515 s


We have .8 in funds from the original donor of funds (thank you)
I am adding .2 in funds  so we have 1.0 in funds
This prize is 0.20 btc and will be given to the closest picker in the ranges

Since I am now adding funding to this I will  pick now

-1.2 = philipma1957         this gives me from -1.2 to -1.1       If it hits I will put it back into the next round. 


note format please     

[valkir]

Yeah 0.2  

5% was not soo bad. Im curious for the next dif since Bitfury will release soon.

[Mikestang]

5% was not soo bad. Im curious for the next dif since Bitfury will release soon.

5% was not so bad when the network difficulty was 30G, but 5% of 111G is a very significant increase!  I think we're going to see solid increases right up to the halving, especially as new tech is being introduced.  I suspect there will be some efficiency break throughs right around the halving, too, in order to keep mining profitable for the huge farms.

[notlist3d]

5% was not soo bad. Im curious for the next dif since Bitfury will release soon.

5% was not so bad when the network difficulty was 30G, but 5% of 111G is a very significant increase!  I think we're going to see solid increases right up to the halving, especially as new tech is being introduced.  I suspect there will be some efficiency break throughs right around the halving, too, in order to keep mining profitable for the huge farms.

It's getting better from larger changes though:

Jan 13 2016    113,354,299,801    9.12%    811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015    103,880,340,815    11.16%    743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015    93,448,670,796    18.14%    668,931,642 GH/s

5 percent compared to those I consider a win.  Could be a lot worse.  Hopefully this one is even lower.

[skuser]

The growth is really depressing. Looking at this chart http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin-10k.png the purple 7 days line is at least 10% above current difficulty level and there wasn't any significant slowdown in hashrate for last 5 days. I do hope it will come soon but now it looks really ugly.

[fr4nkthetank]

I'd just like to take the time to say Thanks for organizing this contest, its really fun.  Also as bitcoin crack addicts as most are, speculating about difficulty and mining is quite satisfying.

[notlist3d]

I'd just like to take the time to say Thanks for organizing this contest, its really fun.  Also as bitcoin crack addicts as most are, speculating about difficulty and mining is quite satisfying.

I agree thanks for keeping it going Phil, it is one of my favorite threads speculating on difficulty.  And thanks also to original donor.

Bitwisdom appears to be stuck which stinks, as I normally enjoy watching it.   Were starting this period with BTC value around 392, would be nice to hit 400 by end.  Don't know if it will happen but I hope so.

[ingiltere]

I was very close last time again but no luck for me. Bitcoinwisdom is not updated for 2 days, which calculator are you using right now? Nextdifficulty? Console in Bitcoin Core?

[Mikestang]

Were starting this period with BTC value around 392, would be nice to hit 400 by end.  Don't know if it will happen but I hope so.

Well it has been over $400 a couple times in the last week, then drops back to 380-390.  At least it seems like we have stabilized around the 400 mark and it's holding value.  We were at 200 for so long that to be double that now is a cool thing, makes that coin mined back then look even better in my wallet.

[philipma1957]

I was very close last time again but no luck for me. Bitcoinwisdom is not updated for 2 days, which calculator are you using right now? Nextdifficulty? Console in Bitcoin Core?

I do manual  with this one

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   395329
Total BTC   15.133M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   122081848321 in 1823 blks
 
Network total   969386.465 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.77 / 532 s


Just   divide Estimated   122081848321 by actual Difficulty   120033340651


122081848321/120033340651 =  1.017066   - 1 =  .017066  which is 1.706%

[notlist3d]

I was very close last time again but no luck for me. Bitcoinwisdom is not updated for 2 days, which calculator are you using right now? Nextdifficulty? Console in Bitcoin Core?

I do manual  with this one

https://bitcoincharts.com/


Blocks   395329
Total BTC   15.133M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   122081848321 in 1823 blks
 
Network total   969386.465 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.77 / 532 s


Just   divide Estimated   122081848321 by actual Difficulty   120033340651


122081848321/120033340651 =  1.017066   - 1 =  .017066  which is 1.706%

I'm happy to see a 1.7 if we could only keep that I will be happy.  The bad thing is BTC value went opposite way as I hoped, around 383 so we lost around 10 bucks instead of gaining 10.

It is slowly going up though on value just is not fast.

[adaseb]

Yesterday still ended up being +6% which is still considered big considering we went up 6% the day prior. And with the price drop, not looking too good.

[RichBC]

Yesterday still ended up being +6% which is still considered big considering we went up 6% the day prior. And with the price drop, not looking too good.

I actually made it 155 Blocks / +7.64% and we came out of the previous Period on a higher run rate that that so I think we are in for another big increase. Seems to be no end to additional hash at the moment.....


Rich

[adaseb]

I guess the only upside to this is most likely prices will fall for S5's / SP20s and you can probably get them cheaper. Most hosting facilities that host those miners are practically breaking even with the electricity cost.

 

[RichBC]

I guess the only upside to this is most likely prices will fall for S5's / SP20s and you can probably get them cheaper. Most hosting facilities that host those miners are practically breaking even with the electricity cost.

Not sure that is an upside as I need to sell my S5's, should have done it a Month ago.....


Rich

[mavericklm]

Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is back!

and is pretty hight atm:
Estimated Next Difficulty:    133,724,540,385 (+11.41%)
Adjust time:    After 1710 Blocks, About 10.9 days
Hashrate(?):    899,146,417 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Jan 26 2016    120,033,340,651    5.89%    859,232,121 GH/s

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty is back!

thanks for info..


Bitcoin Difficulty:   120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:   133,724,540,385 (+11.41%) this is high
Adjust time:   After 1710 Blocks, About 10.9 days
Hashrate(?):   899,146,417 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.4 minutes
6 blocks: 54.9 minutes
Updated:   8:15 (1.8 minutes ago)


https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   395442
Total BTC   15.136M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   123514931129 in 1710 blks
 
Network total   850369.323 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   5.94 / 606 s



THE network can do just about 1000ph  the four days last adjustment average to 970ph

we are at 859 ph to give us the diff of 120

so for us to go to 970 in 2 jumps seems pretty certain.  that would be back to back 6.3%



http://btc.blockr.io/charts

[d57heinz]

I guess the only upside to this is most likely prices will fall for S5's / SP20s and you can probably get them cheaper. Most hosting facilities that host those miners are practically breaking even with the electricity cost.

Not sure that is an upside as I need to sell my S5's, should have done it a Month ago.....


Rich

Yeah im thinking the same.. Look at this http://bitfury.com/products#container-datacenter   when those get ready to deploy diff will go up so easy.. Could be the cause now (testing these containers?).. Hard to buy equip now and plan for any chance of roi.. I knew this day would eventually come. but that doesnt mean im any less bitter about it.. At one point i was at 80 ths.. Now down to 27 ths and looks like even that will have to be sold off.. Not sure what to do at this point.. If only i had free power  Ehh is what it is.  all i can hope for is a crazy spike before halving.. but coin was mineable sustained at 180$ so we may have already seen our doubling priced in. idk..  Also a doubling in hash.. So technically we arent any better off now then at 180 price range except after halving if price doesn't go up..all old tech finally should be shut down..  Guess my plan now is to mine and hold till halving and see what equip is out then.. and take a dive again at the new tech.  Need to sell off some old tech.. got piles of it in the garage.  EDIT  was hoping sidehack was needing some parts as i was saving the s1 i have for his project. Be nice to put them to use or at least most of it to use again.. I have 37  s1.

Best regards
d57heinz

[wlefever]

Holy shit that drop in datacenter is insane.  Only 400 Sq ft for 12-16 PH/s!!  But how many of those will actually be deployed I wonder?

If i could just get a 10TH/s immersion cooled small container I could run silently I would be happy.