Diff thread Feb 19 to Mar 3? picks are closed.... prize = 0.2 btc

[philipma1957]

this is over and will be locked once I pay the winner


new thread is here.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1387464.msg14099542#msg14099542









New thread we had a rollover.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1356223.msg13937766#msg13937766

Prize is 0.2 btc.

I am allowing anyone that Joined the site  before Jan 1 , 2016  and has 30 posts to play.

I have decided to allow rollovers to just keep going.

I have 0.8 btc left in prize money which means we go on for at least 14 weeks.

That  is around May 20- June 1.  I may add more prize money so we reach the ½ ing

Rules.

 1) You joined at least last year 2015 and have 30 posts or more.
 2) Since it is free and no cost to you I may disqualify you if I think you are trying to do multiple entries.
 3) I will let these roll over so prizes could reach more then 0.2

4)  picks are in the format below

so +1.0 = yourforumname  is the way to write your pick    and that gives you  +1.00 to   +1.09 percent as your range



last games picks

-50.0 = Dekker3D

-1.2 = philipma1957
+16.7 = HerbPean
+17.0 = adaseb
+17.7 = Kexkey
+18.7 = tertius993

+19.0 = vapourminer
+19.5 = wlefever
+19.8 = Biodom
+20.2 = edonkey
+20.5 = Brob12321
+20.6 = Ab-Soul
+20.7 = Zz
+20.8 = tss
+21.0 = dukeneptun
+21.2 = Dexter770221 -------- corrected from 21.21
+21.3 = DanDan
+21.6 = sanandreas
+21.7 = RichBC
+21.9 = zebedee
+22.0 = Amph
+22.1 = ACAB
+22.2 = Valkir
+22.3 = lanfeusst
+22.4 = alh
+22.5 = redhack
+22.7 = DrG
+23.0 = ezeminer
+23.2 = Notlist3d
+23.5 = indiemax
+24.4 = Chris_Sabian

+24.9 = cakir
+25.0 = Last of the V8s
+25.5 = radiumsoup

+26.1 = blindminer


+27.0 = psi
+27.1 = flikflak

+27.7 = Mikestang

+28.0 = icey            
+29.0 = alfacro


+30.0 = ingiltere


+33.0 = pusttiu

5)  remember it is a spec thread about difficulty. so spec .

6) and since it is free of charge my rules pretty much are subject changed by me and tiebreakers disqualification's  yada yada yada are up to me.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   179,638,623,624 (+9.88%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 14.7 days  >>>>>>>>>>   when this reads after 1416 picks we start picking corrected
Hashrate(?):   1,123,020,821 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:15 (4.5 minutes ago)



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:   179,638,623,624 (+9.88%)
Adjust time:   After 2014 Blocks, About 14.7 days >>>>>   when this reads after 816 picks we end picking
Hashrate(?):   1,123,020,821 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 10.5 minutes
3 blocks: 31.5 minutes
6 blocks: 1.1 hours
Updated:   8:15 (4.5 minutes ago)

[1714861840]

1714861840

[1714861840]

1714861840

[1714861840]

1714861840

[1714861840]

1714861840

[1714861840]

1714861840

[HerbPean]

So I won the second place, for a third time !

I might be able to win one ... might !  

[notlist3d]

Always love rollovers I think it ads to the fun.  I think we will see bitmain S7's that shippped out hitting network soonish.

One thing I hope goes up is value.  With all the difficulty jumps BTC value could use it to. Were starting at around 420 per coin during this difficulty period.

[ezeminer]

Always love rollovers I think it ads to the fun.  I think we will see bitmain S7's that shippped out hitting network soonish.

One thing I hope goes up is value.  With all the difficulty jumps BTC value could use it to. Were starting at around 420 per coin during this difficulty period.

Maybe difficulty could slow down this adjustment, I mean we are at 10.5 minutes for blocks based on the numbers.

The dream... of a negative difficulty change

[notlist3d]

Read this new's intersting as we  don't hear a lot about inner workings  of KNC mines.  They had a stabbing happen in one.... http://www.coindesk.com/prosecutors-indict-suspect-bitcoin-mine-stabbing/  crazy.

But the intersting part is they consider the workers contractors.  I wonder how many mines do consider people contractors and not a direct employee.

[tss]

Read this new's intersting as we  don't hear a lot about inner workings  of KNC mines.  They had a stabbing happen in one.... http://www.coindesk.com/prosecutors-indict-suspect-bitcoin-mine-stabbing/  crazy.

But the intersting part is they consider the workers contractors.  I wonder how many mines do consider people contractors and not a direct employee.

probably just a fight between 2 foreign laborers.. i doubt they were arguing about the bits and who gets them.

i like Elwar's comment on the article.. pretty accurate "I'm seeing a trend now. Headline says "blockchain" when it is good news, "Bitcoin" when it is bad news."

on another note.  would it be so hard to post a link to the new thread before locking the previous one? 
i must not know how to use the forum properly but it took me a bunch of clicks to find this new one.

[notlist3d]

Read this new's intersting as we  don't hear a lot about inner workings  of KNC mines.  They had a stabbing happen in one.... http://www.coindesk.com/prosecutors-indict-suspect-bitcoin-mine-stabbing/  crazy.

But the intersting part is they consider the workers contractors.  I wonder how many mines do consider people contractors and not a direct employee.

probably just a fight between 2 foreign laborers.. i doubt they were arguing about the bits and who gets them.

i like Elwar's comment on the article.. pretty accurate "I'm seeing a trend now. Headline says "blockchain" when it is good news, "Bitcoin" when it is bad news."

on another note.  would it be so hard to post a link to the new thread before locking the previous one? 
i must not know how to use the forum properly but it took me a bunch of clicks to find this new one.

The trend of saying blockchain vs bitcoin has been going on for a while.   It's been a bit since the last BTC conference I went to but they talk about how a investor hears bitcoin some instant bad thought's.

When trying to get investors a lot use blockchain technology as the buzz word.   It seems to work.  Chances are blockchain will get more and more  popular the more mainstream BTC goes,

[alh]

The original post for this thread indicates that a guess of +1.0 would go through +1.19%, and not the previous 1.09%. That suggests intervals of .2 rather than .1. Is that a typo, or a deliberate  change in the plan?

[Kexkey]

The original post for this thread indicates that a guess of +1.0 would go through +1.19%, and not the previous 1.09%. That suggests intervals of .2 rather than .1. Is that a typo, or a deliberate  change in the plan?

Also noticed it, must be a typo.

[alh]

I was just looking at the chart of past increases, and on December 18th, difficulty was 93.5 Billion. On February 19th, it had risen to 163.5 Billion. That's almost exactly a 75% increase in 2 months time. I don't have an accurate recollection of BTC price on December 18th, but I am sure it hasn't gone up 75% in the last two months.

Rather sobering in my opinion.

[Kexkey]

I was just looking at the chart of past increases, and on December 18th, difficulty was 93.5 Billion. On February 19th, it had risen to 163.5 Billion. That's almost exactly a 75% increase in 2 months time. I don't have an accurate recollection of BTC price on December 18th, but I am sure it hasn't gone up 75% in the last two months.

Rather sobering in my opinion.

My guess is miners believe in the block reward/btc price equilibrium and bet on the price going up (like doubling) at the halving in July or around.  So they pump their hashpower even if right now it looks like not being worth it...

Mining, gambling, investing in stocks ... Same game?   

[philipma1957]

The original post for this thread indicates that a guess of +1.0 would go through +1.19%, and not the previous 1.09%. That suggests intervals of .2 rather than .1. Is that a typo, or a deliberate  change in the plan?

typo it is and corrected

The original post for this thread indicates that a guess of +1.0 would go through +1.19%, and not the previous 1.09%. That suggests intervals of .2 rather than .1. Is that a typo, or a deliberate  change in the plan?

Also noticed it, must be a typo.

fixed it

Read this new's intersting as we  don't hear a lot about inner workings  of KNC mines.  They had a stabbing happen in one.... http://www.coindesk.com/prosecutors-indict-suspect-bitcoin-mine-stabbing/  crazy.

But the intersting part is they consider the workers contractors.  I wonder how many mines do consider people contractors and not a direct employee.

probably just a fight between 2 foreign laborers.. i doubt they were arguing about the bits and who gets them.

i like Elwar's comment on the article.. pretty accurate "I'm seeing a trend now. Headline says "blockchain" when it is good news, "Bitcoin" when it is bad news."

on another note.  would it be so hard to post a link to the new thread before locking the previous one? 
i must not know how to use the forum properly but it took me a bunch of clicks to find this new one.

link has been added

[Mikestang]

Well at least the price has climbed a little this past adjustment period, unlike the one previous.  We're starting this diff period with coins worth about $420, a good 10% bump from the start of last adjustment and almost on pace with difficulty.  I would like to see price continue to strengthen as the difficulty rises.  This is going to start getting really interesting here soon as we approach the halving.  Will manufacturers continue to push out hardware as fast as they can?  Will we reach a critical mass, or will the network continue to grow almost logarithmic fashion?  Only time will tell, but it is fun to speculate (and more-so when a 0.1btc reward is involved).  

Looking at a 2-month graph it does look like network hash rate is starting to plateau:



Although we just had 4 blocks solved in under 2 minutes, not good for difficulty:

[RichBC]

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%  I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.


Rich

[VirosaGITS]

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%  I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.


Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

[notlist3d]

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%  I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.


Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

From looking at group buys it was big and small orders to.  PCFLI finally got his I think  that it's been around a month waiting on for those who bought.  And small customers are getthing batch 10 shipped.

I think it's temporary that they are just moving places, and will be up and running pretty soon.  But bitwsidom has went down:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    163,491,654,909
Estimated Next Difficulty:    176,351,943,784 (+7.87%)
Adjust time:    After 1900 Blocks, About 13.8 days

[RichBC]

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%  I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.


Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

Not disagreeing with the Batch 10 shipping effect just making the point that in the last 2 Periods where Hash was added during the Period it results in an under-correction of Difficulty and a positive starting point for the next Period even before any more Hash is added.

Whereas I judged for this Period that the exit run rate matched the correction, so we were entering this Period at Par. Of course from here anything could happen. 

Rich

[valkir]

13.44% was better than 20%  Lets hope the next diff will be more around 5 to 10% 

[philipma1957]

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%  I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.


Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

Not disagreeing with the Batch 10 shipping effect just making the point that in the last 2 Periods where Hash was added during the Period it results in an under-correction of Difficulty and a positive starting point for the next Period even before any more Hash is added.

Whereas I judged for this Period that the exit run rate matched the correction, so we were entering this Period at Par. Of course from here anything could happen. 

Rich

They did not sell 10 percent of the network in batch ten.

We were at 23 percent and dropped to 13 percent.  The missing ten percent would be 108 ph

This is about 22000 s-7s! That did not happen.

It is a mix of batch ten and an unknown

Also like Rich says this makes for an inaccurate early number for diff.

Based on the 23 percent I think we may add 60 to 80 ph. With maybe  40 ph going missing.

[Kexkey]

Well a nice slow start to the Period. Run rate so far is -6%  I think there is an important difference this Period in that we entered it with a Full correction to the Difficulty, perhaps even an overcorrection? In the previous two periods we had an under-correction of at least 10% because of when Hash was added during the Periods.


Rich

I dont think so, the drop in hashrate coincide with the Batch 10 shipping out and there was a lot of BTC dropping in Bitmain,s pocket. It might not be the only factor but i would not be surprised if they mined on B10 during the latest holiday and when coming back they did tons of shipping.

I guess until they hit the door we'll see less hashrate.

Not disagreeing with the Batch 10 shipping effect just making the point that in the last 2 Periods where Hash was added during the Period it results in an under-correction of Difficulty and a positive starting point for the next Period even before any more Hash is added.

Whereas I judged for this Period that the exit run rate matched the correction, so we were entering this Period at Par. Of course from here anything could happen. 

Rich

They did not sell 10 percent of the network in batch ten.

We were at 23 percent and dropped to 13 percent.  The missing ten percent would be 108 ph

This is about 22000 s-7s! That did not happen.

It is a mix of batch ten and an unknown

Also like Rich says this makes for an inaccurate early number for diff.

Based on the 23 percent I think we may add 60 to 80 ph. With maybe  40 ph going missing.

I read on Twitter this morning that some relatively big Chinese mining farms have been caught stealing electricity and had to stop their operations.  That could explain the drop.