Win 10 BTC: Guess the price on February 1st (no entry fee)

[Luceo]

$17.79

[vssa]

12.2

[Korbman]

$17.75

[dserrano5]

You could risk your guess already being taken by then.

I see nothing in the first post that prevents a guess like e.g. $19.19191919, therefore making a collision highly improbable. Or am I missing something?

[uncaer9]

17.7$

[Raize]

33.50

[FreshJR]

14.81 

[fimp]

You could risk your guess already being taken by then.

I see nothing in the first post that prevents a guess like e.g. $19.19191919, therefore making a collision highly improbable. Or am I missing something?

That's true. But rounder numbers have a higher probability of being the actual last price, because human traders tend to use rounder numbers.

[homeyhomedawg]

19.69 bucks

[Phinnaeus Gage]

In before somebody else: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

My guess will be the exact number obtained when all the guesses (minus all guesses that are more than doubled the current price--$18.3790 USD or half of same) are totaled, divided by the number of guesses tallied, and rounded to the nearest satoshi.

To be clear, no guesses over 36.758 or under 9.1895 will be considered for the calculation.

If the resulting number proves to be the winning entry, the prize pool will be donated to the I-can't-believe-I-created-this-stupid-Pirate-bet fund, namely Matthew, to disperse how he sees fit.

This is a serious entry, and I desire fimp to accept it as it is. I will PM the link to this post since, with this unique guess/entry I will be breaking one of the rules:

Step 1: Fill out this form with your guess.

All he'll have to do is quote this post, and somebody quote him doing such, and my guess will be validated.

At the very least, we'll learn how close wisdom-of-the-crowd will work in this case.

I, nor any one of my other accounts, will be submitting another guess.

~Bruno K~

EDIT: PM sent.

You'll have to submit a regular guess like everybody else, but that doesn't stop you from using your desired strategy.

All guesses are available in an easy-to-handle format here.

Shortly before the guessing deadline Jan 30, 00:00:01 AM UTC you can do the calculation and submit a guess the normal way.

Fair enough. I can submit a weighted average a couple hours before closing.

Thanks, fimp, for your consideration.

~Bruno K~

[Thursday]

$15.87

[smoothie]

BITCOIN NORDIC charges 9% on top of the exchange price for bitcoins.

That IMO is waaaay over priced.

[TheDarKnight]

It's a bit early doors but lest I forget later, I'll have my pot-shot right now 
I\ll say 15.4 USD!

[TheButterZone]

$15

[fimp]

Distribution of first 209 guesses

[bushstar]

$11.50

[JTurner]

$16.95

[TooCasual]

$17.90 USD

[localhost]

16.85

[Vorksholk]

I'm betting on $19.32 USD per bitcoin. That number came out of virtually nowhere.