The (two) number 1 things are regulatory approval and user base growth. Userbase growth I'd expect to continue its upward creep (though not fast enough). However regulatory approval, in particular in US states, isn't a quick or easy thing to achieve.
I think there's a degree of realism in the market now that has replaced the early exuberance when it comes to Lykke. Lykke was a great buy at 6 cents. At 41 cents, it was substantially overvalued at some $600 million plus in marketcap. To give you perspective Coinbase was talking about raising a funding round that valued itself at $1 billion
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/02/bitcoin-start-up-coinbase-aims-for-1-billion-valuation.htmlCoinbase in conjunction with its exchange GDAX has regulatory approval all over the place, including UK, Canada, most of EU Europe, and most or all US states (probably most not all). It has insurance for both crypto, and for US folks FDIC insurance of USD deposits.
Lykke on the other hand according to its annual report has "a Vanuatu brokerage license".
https://www.lykke.com/Annual_Report_2016.pdf (see page 3 and from page 19)
It is "applying" for lots of licenses, with keys being the US and UK. Applying for a license and having one is a very different thing. Lykke really has no licenses at this point, although they'll likely get some as time goes on, and anyway they appear to be allowing transactions without a license certainly with cryptocurrency, which they can probably get away with since everyone else is doing that. Not having any US license is a massive thing, and I'm not sure with a Swiss firm in competition with US incumbent Coinbase how enthusiastically and quickly US authorities will be in granting them licenses.
Lykke's userbase according to its recently released annual report is 11,442 users as of 1 June 2017.
https://www.lykke.com/Annual_Report_2016.pdf (Page 5).
I couldn't get exact stats out there on Coinbase, but it seems like it's got anywhere from 6 to 10 million users.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-user-base-surges-coinbase-adds-1-mln-users-in-1-monthhttp://www.newsbtc.com/2017/03/01/bitcoin-exchange-coinbase-surpasses-6-million-total-users/Lykke is sitting currently at just under $480 million in total market cap (that is marketcap including coins held by founders and not in free float, which is something like 80 to 90 per cent of them).
My point is, how could Lykke possibly be worth half of Coinbase, that has 6 to 10 million users, worldwide regulatory approval, including the key US market through approval in US states when Lykke has less than 12,000 users and no real regulatory approval? (I'm not suggesting Vanuatu is not a "real" jurisdiction, I'm saying it's not an important one for the purposes of cryptocurrency markets).
My conclusion is it can't. That's why the price is off over 10% at 36.5 cents, but I think the price correction has only just begun. Segwit 2x will activate, and, when it does, Bitcoin will go up like crazy. No one will want to miss out on the action, they'll dump lots of things to free up liquidity to ride the "Bitcoin has finally scaled" wave up, they'll dump Ether, and they will certainly dump Lykke - especially early investors who are already sitting on lovely, acceptable 7x profits. I easily see a correction down to [edit, I see a larger LKK correction in light of today's altcoin route, 10 to 15 cents] in the next couple of months, which is probably closer to fair value anyway.
The big upside risks are (1) US regulatory approval and (2) substantial userbase growth. The big downside risks are (1) rejection or delay of US regulatory approval (2) Bitcoin scales and everyone dumps everything including Lykke to buy it.
