Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[marcus_of_augustus]

this is bad

 
hilariously, comically bad ... laughs don't come along more genuine and cheaper than slow motion train rekts playing out like this

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[Anonymoose33]

Going to start a thread posting my own ideas and what is happening with BTC.


At the moment, I see a completion of a weak move up against the grain of the momentum indicators. Shorters probs want to set their trades around $432-$433, targetting low $420s and setting their stops up above $436. I would be astounded if BTC takes out the $435 high, without first correcting a good bit. Momentume looking very heavy, volume is increasingly anaemic.

I am currently short from $430, and won't be adjusting anything for the time being.

You're playing the game wrong, don't use those indicators with bitcoin.

[Equus]

Going to start a thread posting my own ideas and what is happening with BTC.

I really have to thank you, Mat, for literally years of this kind of entertainment. 

Your reliability as a reverse-indicator is absolutely uncanny. I am beginning to think that the sharks really are out to get you personally. Thank you for never giving up.

[r0ach]

Going to start a thread posting my own ideas and what is happening with BTC.

I really have to thank you, Mat, for literally years of this kind of entertainment. 

Your reliability as a reverse-indicator is absolutely uncanny. I am beginning to think that the sharks really are out to get you personally. Thank you for never giving up.

We have a dedicated thread for that:

The MatTheCat reverse indicator thread

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1319356.0

[MatTheCat]

We will look back years from now and say, "remember that MatTheCat guy that tried to short the BTC halving based on a 4hr chart?  I wonder what happened to him?"

Fucking rat cocksuckers.

6 fucking BTC trade with Stop Order

And you will remember that the trade in which this quote refers to:

Fucking rat cocksuckers.

6 fucking BTC trade with Stop Order

Was indeed a time when Finex FU stopped me out of a short at $407.24. I know this exact figure, as my Stop Order did turn out to be the very top of the market, so all I have do to, without even checking the thread or any charts that I posted, is look at the candle high on Finex for Jan 20th, and the candle high for that date, was indeed, $407.24. What Roach fails to state, is that Bitcoin then went on to tank, bottoming out at $360. Which I can tell you, was an utterly fucking galling experience since I was proven 'right' but lost money, yet again.

I don't think I am a crack trader, but I have learned how to properly read charts and was turning over a decent success rate, and so I started this thread, and also my growing confidence resulted in me increasing bet sizes...and since then.......2 fucking duds. To be fair, the latest short trade is still in play (not the Finex trade, which FU'd over the stop point, but the one I actually took on OKCoin3MonFuts), but to be honest, at this point in time, I don't have much faith in it. In between these two dud trades which I publicly posted, I took this one:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lQLIDesp/

The irony of the fact that the minute I decide to post a couple of trades for all to see, that they failed spectacularly (well one has, the other looks likely to), is not lost on me. Neither is the fact that I am putting mental capital into debating with tossers like you, who due to your permabull outlook, have the privilege off always being 'right' when Bitcoin rises (and always being wrong when it goes down). Me on the otherhand, by posting short trades with tight Stop Losses, I have to hit the nail on the fucking head, otherwise I am stopped out, and then invariably get the dubious honour of being proven 'generally right', but still losing money.

But yep. I am deploying Range Trading tools looking for reversals when in all likelihood, Bitcoin has switched from a ranging market state and has commenced on a bullish trend and thing to be doing here, is to be looking for bullish structure on pullbacks in order to get into long positions, and not go hunting for countertrend short trades that are always liable to be stopped out as Bitcoin pushes ever increasingly higher, against the grain of all technicals and reversal indicators.

[r0ach]

"Ironically, I'm in this book 'The Big Short,' but I'm not a big short. I don't go out looking for good shorts. I'm spending my time looking for good longs."

[MatTheCat]

[r0ach]

Mat are you trying to lose money?  This isn't a fake wall on Cornbase.  It will not be pulled.  The new floor is $440.  It doesn't matter what all this jibberish you're talking is when people can just decide what levels to support.  Shorters already paid for this price increase for us, now we're staging to break the triple top from months ago.

[MatTheCat]

Mat are you trying to lose money?  This isn't a fake wall on Cornbase.  It will not be pulled.  The new floor is $440.  It doesn't matter what all this jibberish you're talking is when people can just decide what levels to support:

Whatever.

I stated in this thread at $439, that I suspected $450 was going to hit, but I wasn't going to trade it cos there was now too much risk involved. If I didn't take my long then, I absolutely cannot take a long now at $445...(I also recommended that other people take this trade, cso the ones I call but dont take have a tendency of coming in...the fucking silly twat that I am)

Fact is, I opted to be a bear, in the face of the bull, and I have been run over. Naturally, I will not be alone in this. Now, there will be many in my shoes, who will be tempted to FOMO buy right here, or on the break of the $447 high, and what do you think these FOMO buyers are going to do when 'they' decide it's time to dump Bitcoin back down a level or two? FOMO buyers here, who will buying up whale BTC in upper $440s, will be panic sellers when they should be buyers down in low $430/$420s, where the whales will buy back all the BTC that they sold $20+ up the market.

Conspicuous wall activity more often than not, is indicative of whale shenanigans, other than the organic mood of the market.

[r0ach]

Fact is, I opted to be a bear, in the face of the bull, and I have been run over.

Do you know what the word asymmetric trade means?  It means whoever goes long right now, even if it did drop back to 420 by some miracle (not likely), they wouldn't lose a dime because you can easily just hold the long until halving rise is over and still be in mega profit.  That is who you are trading against and why you lost.

We will see who's smart and who's not when the halving happens. Iteresting times ahead.

I am ready.

[MatTheCat]

Do you know what the word asymmetric trade means?  It means whoever goes long right now, even if it did drop back to 420 by some miracle (not likely), they wouldn't lose a dime because you can easily just hold the long until halving rise is over and still be in mega profit.  That is who you are trading against and why you lost.

So let me get this straight.

Because of this 'asymmetric trading', Bitcoin is going to go up and up and up, and just keep going up, and never look back down until the halving?

erm....right.

 

[r0ach]

Do you know what the word asymmetric trade means?  It means whoever goes long right now, even if it did drop back to 420 by some miracle (not likely), they wouldn't lose a dime because you can easily just hold the long until halving rise is over and still be in mega profit.  That is who you are trading against and why you lost.

So let me get this straight.

Because of this 'asymmetric trading', Bitcoin is going to go up and up and up, and just keep going up, and never look back down until the halving?

erm....right.

 

No, it just means it's going to go up and if you aren't already in, you're gonna get left behind, standing there with your dick in your hand.

[Anonymoose33]

Do you know what the word asymmetric trade means?  It means whoever goes long right now, even if it did drop back to 420 by some miracle (not likely), they wouldn't lose a dime because you can easily just hold the long until halving rise is over and still be in mega profit.  That is who you are trading against and why you lost.

So let me get this straight.

Because of this 'asymmetric trading', Bitcoin is going to go up and up and up, and just keep going up, and never look back down until the halving?

erm....right.

 

Of course there is going to be swings and corrections, but you're not playing right.  You need to have an open mind to the opposite side of the trade to make an accurate decision.  It is easy to get focused on 'the chart shows this, so it MUST be going to happen this way'.

[MatTheCat]

[r0ach]

MatAndCat Pictures

It likely means miners stopped selling, so welcome to 90 days of enormous supply crunch.  The volume will be turned on when we reach a level where some random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving, which is not going to be below $500 by anyone's standards.  Then the long, drawn out game starts of people trying to sell high, buy lower, or short, with others trying to squeeze or lock out sellers and forcing them to buy back in.  Then we get the volatility that can do just about anything except go below the first double bottom after volume kicks in...another asymmetric trade.

[MatTheCat]

MatAndCat Pictures

It likely means miners stopped selling, so welcome to 90 days of enormous supply crunch.  The volume will be turned on when we reach a level where some random guy that owns lots of coins believes we have hit a price that is unsustainable pre-halving, which is not going to be below $500 by anyone's standards.  Then the long, drawn out game starts of people trying to sell high, buy lower, or short, with others trying to squeeze or lock out sellers and forcing them to buy back in.  Then we get the volatility that can do just about anything except go below the first double bottom after volume kicks in...another asymmetric trade.

Yep...sounds perfectly plausible to me.

[MatTheCat]

These charts are not accurately aligned, but I think with a bit of scrutiny, most people here will be able to see the contrarian indicator at work. The time to go short BTC, is not when BTC swaps (for margin short positions) are relatively high, but when they have crashed down to lows, like they have just done recently.



Update:





From looking closely at BFX swaps data.....time to short, is when BFX swaps is (counter intutively) at extreme lows....and the time to go long, is (again counter intutively) when BFX swaps are at extreme highs.... When the swap totals are in between, you are looking for signs of a battle being waged, which in the first instance, Shorts must have lost and gotten slaughtered, before regrouping to attack the bull once again (but always in much lower numbers the the amount that the bull slaughtered previoulsy).


What you are probably wanting to see here, now that BTC has had it's Short Squeeze driven break out, is spot continue to rise, as shorts also rise, but the bull is running out of steam and technically weak, whilst the shorts are waking up.......

[Wexlike]

Mat, what is your stance on this?

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GBTC#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}

[MatTheCat]

Mat, what is your stance on this?

https://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GBTC#{"range":"max","allowChartStacking":true}

Low liquidity, low volume ETF that has gotten drunk, has a huge premium on it, and has gotten way ahead of itself.

OkCoin Futures is where all the big Chinese miners hedge.

With that said, the Vol Impetus on this ETF looks a bit healthier (in relative terms) on that rise than on the BTC exchanges themselves. Also notice that the buying pressure in Bitcoin has come mostly during North American trading hours....perhaps this ETF fund was doing the buying, when nobody else was selling? Roach made a very good point a few posts above, about Miners hoarding BTC, in order to dump them post-halving, at presumably much higher prices. This may 'legitimise' the recent rise on record low volume (for a pump this year). rptielia will tell you otherwise, but rising price on low/decreasing volume is generally bearish as hell.

[r0ach]

Mat, have you lost your fucking mind?  It's a bull market, you got raped shorting, now you're trying to find a new entry point to short? LOL

Why not do what any logical human would do and attempt to find a long point instead?  If you really want to donate free money to me, I guess go ahead and short so I can squeeze you.

I finally discovered your critical malfunction.  You're so angry that the BTC market has taken money from you in bad trades, you now want it to die and all your trades are based on hoping Bitcoin will die when it's just not going to.  The MatTheCat rage trading strategy.

The next source of MatTheCat fail:

I am looking for retrace and formation of confirmed bottom against either the support trendline that has been in play since Nov 2015

Classic MatTheCat fail.  Looking at TA from half a year ago is completely useless because the fundamentals have now vastly changed.  Block size cutting in half is a fundamental.