Lose all your capital fast, with MatTheCat and his TA 101A!

[MatTheCat]

Mat, have you lost your fucking mind?  It's a bull market, you got raped shorting, now you're trying to find a new entry point to short? LOL

Why not do what any logical human would do and attempt to find a long point instead?  If you really want to donate free money to me, I guess go ahead and short so I can squeeze you.

I finally discovered your critical malfunction.  You're so angry that the BTC market has taken money from you in bad trades, you now want it to die and all your trades are based on hoping Bitcoin will die when it's just not going to.  The MatTheCat rage trading strategy.

The next source of MatTheCat fail:

I am looking for retrace and formation of confirmed bottom against either the support trendline that has been in play since Nov 2015

Classic MatTheCat fail.  Looking at TA from half a year ago is completely useless because the fundamentals have now vastly changed.  Block size cutting in half is a fundamental.

Primarily, I am looking for a pullback down to trendline, and for bullish resolution of that pullback, then I will go long Bitcoin.

I may attempt a short on that, I may not.

But you shouldn't be so down on the shorters. It was after all shorters covering their positions  that helped fuel this rather weak pump. I would say that all the weak hand shorters have been flushed out and if there isn't enough organic interest coming into Bitcoin at this point in time (and going by the shit volume, I would say that there isn't), then back down we go to wipe the floor with all the margin longs which have been piling up in eager anticipation of $10K Bitcoin.

This is how 'they' work this rigged p.o.s market, and I was a fool for standing in the way of them basing my counter trend trades on a whole bunch of technical indicators and market reversal patterns. If strong enough hands can make more money pushing this market up, then they gonna push it up regardless.

As it stand, all the shorters may have been cleaned out, but every n00b and his dog thinks BTC is about to break out and shoot up to $1K or wotever, so too dangerous to take a trade right now....one more unconvincing pop up above the recent high, with even more margin longs piling up for not very much more upside, and I may reconsider a short.

BFX USD swaps (margin longs) are almost up against record highs. The two previous highs were around $32 Million, and occured on July 17th, 2014, and then again on August 4th, 2015. Go take a look at bitcoinwisdom and tell me how all those margin long traders fared.

[r0ach]

This is how 'they' work this rigged p.o.s market

"They" are unable to force the market down.  If  they really wanted to waste money trying, they might be able to drop it to 435-440, but it would be completely pointless when they would lose more than they gain in an attempt to buy lower, which is why it will not happen.  It's already found far too solid of a floor after it's recent rise as well.  There is nothing to "pull back" to.

[lissandra]

Fact is, I opted to be a bear, in the face of the bull, and I have been run over.

Do you know what the word asymmetric trade means?  It means whoever goes long right now, even if it did drop back to 420 by some miracle (not likely), they wouldn't lose a dime because you can easily just hold the long until halving rise is over and still be in mega profit.  That is who you are trading against and why you lost.

We will see who's smart and who's not when the halving happens. Iteresting times ahead.

I am ready.

Not saying this will happen over 1 day period.

But I think the halving should be viewed coming in less of a immediate price reaction. You should peoples reactions coming after a week or so from then on out I feel.

Unless theres a ton of buy orders all across on all exchanges then I dont know.

[MatTheCat]

My TA 101 Skills are telling me that this time Bitcoin must surely be overextended (but everyone seen how that worked out last couple of times):




But since I already been run over twice attempting to stand in the path of the bull, I don't suppose there is any reason why Bitcoin couldn't run over the last of the shorters here and stop em all out (and then correcting like a bitch), so here is the long scenario. BTC breaks $454 on Finex, then she going up to around $470:




At this point in time, I don't think I shall be looking to trade either of those outcomes should they materialise. Getting stopped for a 3rd time trying short the same move, would be brutal and opting to go long, and then getting wiped out as Bitcoin corrects like a bitch, would be utterly fucking demoralising. My confidence has already been shaken and I can't risk picking up any further injury here.

[MatTheCat]

He who refused to buy Bitcoin at $435, cos it was 'overextended', has just done the unthinkable and taken a long position, against all his better judgements:




This should be the last leg up before punishment time.

[r0ach]

In Bitcoin, a much larger amount of money is in on the long game rather than the short game.  Depending on what percent of float you think is newly mined coins being dumped, miners that stop selling for 80 days could do pretty insane things to price.  We already know the majority of hodlers aren't going to be selling a dime till post-halving, so with hodlers and miners not selling at the same time, your short term TA based on old markets can get destroyed.  It might just gradually float all the way up to $550-600 before we see the big volume come of people trying to sell thinking they can buy back lower.  But...maybe they will all die to a coordinated short squeeze instead.

[koryu]

500+ should be first target with some dips in between  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/k5Sf1lp5-It-s-about-time/

[r0ach]

I finally talked Mat out of being an idiot.  I don't think I've ever actually lost money on Bitcoin, so next time you get some kind of "i think I've outsmarted the market, hair brain scheme", just ask me first.

[MatTheCat]

After the absolute nightmare I have had shorting this rise, I simply cannot tolerate any further failed trades on this BTC move. Psychological damage would far outweigh the financial damage and also any financial gains that may be gotten from toughing out any corrections. Stop has been moved to break even on this trade. I refuse to lose here.

Perhaps there is wisdom to the words of 'Roach', when in the 'MatTheCat Reverse Indicator' thread which he kindly started in my honour, he stated "ooh...look out bulls, MatTheCat is long. A MatTheCat long is the epitomy of 'weak hands'? I shall analyse outcomes and behaviour patterns here closely.

[MatTheCat]

If this trade works, then Bitcoin probably going down, and this is looking like a much more solid trade than the one above which I look certain to leave at scratch.

[tmfp]

I've been buying the dips for a while now, unloaded some twice ~$450 when my fav indicator RSI showed overbought, and replaced with a good profit, most of which I reinvested.
This time I think will go thru the 450/500 band, probably overshoot on some fomo buying and short covering maybe as far as $550/600 where, depending on circs, I'll be looking to sell into any further strength with one eye on daily 10 period RSI >80 to confirm.
I'll stop everything out at $340, still overall profit; if we get back down there something major will be wrong.

[MatTheCat]

I've been buying the dips for a while now, unloaded some twice ~$450 when my fav indicator RSI showed overbought, and replaced with a good profit, most of which I reinvested.
This time I think will go thru the 450/500 band, probably overshoot on some fomo buying and short covering maybe as far as $550/600 where, depending on circs, I'll be looking to sell into any further strength with one eye on daily 10 period RSI >80 to confirm.
I'll stop everything out at $340, still overall profit; if we get back down there something major will be wrong.

If I were fortunate enough to have been riding this bull up from $420 (cos that in my view was 'the start' of this move, I would be taking all my chips off the table right about now).

Much of the upside volume on this move wasn't actually bulls rampantly buying, but bears covering their shorts. I was one of them. As you will be able to see from this chart:

https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc

around 6K of BTC swaps were wiped out on the rise on Finex alone (I shudder to think about all the poor suckers on OKCoin Futures), and the BTC swaps are now putting in a double bottom. It may seen counter intuitive that the amount of short positions should crater prior to a big correction (i.e. cratering shorts were what was powering the rise), but this is how it works, and this is how 'they' take money out the market. If you were able to overlay the BTC swaps and the BTC spot price, you would see how BTC spot rose, whilst BTC swaps cratered.

Here is another chart:

https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd

That is the amount of USD swaps taken out for BTC long positions. As you can see, it has hit a peak, and put in a double top. As counter intuitive as it may seem, when the volume of USD swaps (for long positions) is at it's highest point, is generally when Bitcoin is due for some brutal downside. Again, this is how 'they' take money from the market, and why 'the majority', always lose.


'They' drive Bitcoin towards the easiest to reach, or most lucrative liquidity pools, each and everytime, and I say that there aint too many more cherries up above within easy touching distance, so I expect a strong correction is incoming, which will wipe a lot of USD swaps off the slate, and will see a big pile up of shorts positions, ready to be wiped out on 'the bounce', and then again on the next pump.

[bitcoin carpenter]

Coinbase is leading the rally though, this rise is being fueled by more than just manipulators.

[MatTheCat]

Coinbase is leading the rally though, this rise is being fueled by more than just manipulators.

You think the tiny little itty bitty volume on Coinbase is leading Bitcoin?

(leading doesn't mean 'highest price'. leading means which exchange's activity determines direction)

[bitcoin carpenter]

Coinbase volume is over stamps today i wouldnt call that tiny.  And look other exchanges are chasing its price.

[MatTheCat]

Coinbase volume is over stamps today i wouldnt call that tiny.  And look other exchanges are chasing its price.

Where can I get a look at Coinbase trading, in detail, and most importantly, Coinbase Volume?

At 20:12 today, on both Finex and Bitstamp, some entity fired off a 2.5K BTC market orders, thus triggering this pump. This is a clear sign of coordinated market engineering, by some entity with very, very, deep pockets.

I of course, scratched my trade when Bitcoin came back down to my entry point, as having already been run over trying to short the rise, I really would not have been able to tolerate any heat with Bitcoin reversing back over me.

It has not escaped my attention either, that the minute I started this thread, was the very minute I hit a fucking abysmal run of form. Perhaps I am jinxing myself, or perhaps the very act of posting my market thoughts, and especially my trades publically, is altering my mental internals somehow, and causing me to fuck up? My confidence is shattered, this is brain damage of the highest order, and I aint even making money. I am either losing, or not making, when I wouldashouldacoulda.

If this just goes apeshit right now, then I will be the one who misses the Halving pump of 2016, cos I just can't touch this now.

[Wexlike]

And others are still in the game since 419$..

[MatTheCat]

And others are still in the game since 419$..

Yep...If you hit the trend at or near the bottom, then it is much more plain sailing.....BTC tanks $10-$15 bucks and takes out a few late entrants Stop Levels? Meh, see how the charts are looking in a few hours, or a day or two and then decide on your actions.

If however, you are on the wrong end of the trade from the bottom, or near the bottom, and you get run over a couple of times, then look to join the party at what might be a very risky, late stage of the game, then aside from being confused and disorientated, you are from a trading point of view, in a very vulnerable position. When BTC started to correct and take out the weak stops, I had to abandon my trade plan and exit at scratch. The mental torment of shorting the rise and losing, then going long on the rise, just before a brutal correction, would have finished me.  

[Wexlike]

I absolutely agree with your point. That is why I took a position before the ending of the very big triangle. From a day-trading point of view, it sucks to enter after such a violent rise(with low volume). On the other hand, the triangle broke to the upside.

But it gives high confidence in your decisions and also in the strength of your hands if you have a concrete perspective for bitcoin in the near future. I expect bitcoin to be in the next years in a price region of 3-8k$. (The halvening is a part of the puzzle, that makes these regions available) This makes it easier to hold even if the market turns to the downside of a trade. (and ease of mind)

[Ted E. Bare]

It can also help to refrain from using leverage. You will be able to hold onto your positions longer because at a given point in time the price is likely to become both higher and lower.