A4 Dominator - Pre-Order Group Buy - 280mh, roughly 1000w, $1800 + shipping

[hdmediaservices]

Curious how attractive this unit will be at the current price when the bitcoin reward halves in a few days.

[1714145041]

1714145041

[Longsnowsm]

Exactly the concern on everyones mind... Does the value of BTC/LTC drop by half?  Does it double?  Does it do something completely unexpected and maybe do nothing at all... Anyones guess.  We won't know immediately after the halving I suspect we will need things to settle down and find a new "normal".  How long that takes is again an unknown.  Right now BTC prices are spooking everyone. 

[hdmediaservices]

Well when LTC's reward halved -- the A2s became much less profitable overnight.

[usao]

There is a huge base of installed ASICs for BTC. The mining farms are not going to want to see their value drop by half.
That is why I suspect that the price of BTC will basically double to compensate for the reduced reward.

In fact, we have seen a recent price spike for BTC, and that may be the market taking into account the halving.

The stock markets do much the same thing. Significant news about the market tends to be already factored in.

[hdmediaservices]

There is a huge base of installed ASICs for BTC. The mining farms are not going to want to see their value drop by half.
That is why I suspect that the price of BTC will basically double to compensate for the reduced reward.

In fact, we have seen a recent price spike for BTC, and that may be the market taking into account the halving.

The stock markets do much the same thing. Significant news about the market tends to be already factored in.

I'm trying to imagine how the mining farms will make BTC double in price.

[usao]

Well, as the main producers of coin, they are not going to sell at a loss, they are going to put sell orders in for higher values.
Most of the small time miners are just along for the ride. If BTC sells for a higher amount, that's good for all the miners.
If it won't sell, then they will cut-back on mining to reduce the difficulty to a point where they can make a profit.

Individually, no-one controls the price, but collectivly they put sell target prices in and there are such a small percentage of coin traded by the average joe that the average joe is going to boost his asking price to match what the large sellers are getting.

Add to that the buyers also know this, and want to see the price of their investments go up also, so they are looking for those price gains as well.

I really don't think there is much difference between the coin markets and the stock market, and they behave very similar.
"News" about a coin really drives the price more than anything else. Supply/Demand governs the market.

[hdmediaservices]

So you must be buying a ton of BTC right now?

[usao]

So you must be buying a ton of BTC right now?

Too late. I think the price is already adjusted. Recall the recent spike in BTC price over the past couple months.
Major players are not going to be behind the curve, they are going to be ahead of the game.

Just like the stock market. They bake-in to the pricing all the anticipated news, such as interest rate spikes and such.
By the time news is official, the price already reflects the anticipated change.

[Marvell1]

Well, as the main producers of coin, they are not going to sell at a loss, they are going to put sell orders in for higher values.
Most of the small time miners are just along for the ride. If BTC sells for a higher amount, that's good for all the miners.
If it won't sell, then they will cut-back on mining to reduce the difficulty to a point where they can make a profit.

Individually, no-one controls the price, but collectivly they put sell target prices in and there are such a small percentage of coin traded by the average joe that the average joe is going to boost his asking price to match what the large sellers are getting.

Add to that the buyers also know this, and want to see the price of their investments go up also, so they are looking for those price gains as well.

I really don't think there is much difference between the coin markets and the stock market, and they behave very similar.
"News" about a coin really drives the price more than anything else. Supply/Demand governs the market.

Lol what do you mean they wont sell at a loss,? they have to keep the lights on and pay employees, loans investors etc

I think some will go out of business but the ones in Iceland and china with cheap gear and free electricity will do fine.  Prices have already doubled from back in jan nearly I can see it peaking at near 700 max.

[hdmediaservices]

So you must be buying a ton of BTC right now?

Too late. I think the price is already adjusted. Recall the recent spike in BTC price over the past couple months.
Major players are not going to be behind the curve, they are going to be ahead of the game.

Just like the stock market. They bake-in to the pricing all the anticipated news, such as interest rate spikes and such.
By the time news is official, the price already reflects the anticipated change.

Ah - I see -- so you are saying that the current rise in BTC price has already compensated for the halving and so we should not expect BTC to double now to $1200+ -- as it already doubled slowly from the $300's to the $600's.

Will be interesting to see what happens.  I'm sure it will be very volatile for months to come.

[Longsnowsm]

Excellent point Marvell1!  I just pulled up the chart for BTC and if you look at the price movement up we see it started this climb back in Sept 2015 at around $230 so looking at it from that perspective it has already more than doubled.  That is an interesting observation and points out we might not see the big price moves that everyone is talking about.  At least not to the upside like so many are expecting.  

[Marvell1]

Excellent point Marvell1!  I just pulled up the chart for BTC and if you look at the price movement up we see it started this climb back in Sept 2015 at around $230 so looking at it from that perspective it has already more than doubled.  That is an interesting observation and points out we might not see the big price moves that everyone is talking about.  At least not to the upside like so many are expecting.  

yeah Its not an orignal though @Longsnowsm I read somone elses reseach someone else an I just happen to agree with it.  Possibly long term we will see a steady organic rise as the new supply level is halved but I dont think we will see the explosion folks see short term.

This is the same pattern that happened with LTC that make me sell my 1.2GH farm back in aug-october last year.

Same pattern :  a run-early jan 2015- march/april from sub 2 to around 5-6 dollars peaking at 8 around a month before halving i think in June.  Then when halving hit and all the whales were able to dump and sell the real event, alot of us were left bagholding at that point. Prices dropped to the intial pop around 4-5 USD and guess what its sat at that level for nearly over a year.  

Also it was expected that the LTC hash rate would drop since for miners such as me A2's and other harwae becase inniffeicent but guess what ?  I found buyers for everyone of my 10 A2 units , buyers from canada and southern states in the US with low power.   Same will happen here hash rate will keep rising and the Chinese will keep rising the hash rash rate since now they need EVEN more hash to make what the used to and their only real cost is hardware.

I expect the same thing here maybe to a lesser extent since bitcoin is more useful than Litecoin so we will see a slow rise eventually.

[usao]

I really don't expect to see much change in BTC at the halving.
Possibly some price rise from miners who haven't already priced that into their sale price
Possibly some decrease in hashrate due to miners shutting-down.
but I do not expect to see some big swing at or near the time of the halving.

[cloudnthings]

Does anyone know if Inno allows pick up from them directly?

[Longsnowsm]

I don't know if Inno allows for pickup directly.  I can ask for you if you would like.  Do you know where their facilities and offices are? 

[cloudnthings]

I don't know if Inno allows for pickup directly.  I can ask for you if you would like.  Do you know where their facilities and offices are? 

If you could ask that would be great. I think they are just out of Shanghai in Suzhou. (From their website). There is a blockchain summit in Shanghai on 19th September.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/industry-to-descend-on-shanghai-for-the-global-blockchain-summit/

Just a thought.

[Longsnowsm]

No problem I will ask about the option to do a direct pickup. 

Inno has replied to the question about how a DOA miner would be handled:

Our 45 days parts warrantee starts once the miner gets received. If any problem, we will offer instructions on how to check the miners and find out the faulty parts, and we will send the corresponding parts for replacement after getting video/pictures as proof from customer. If all hash boards, controller board and Raspberry Pi are dead, which I don’t think will happen, the replacement parts will be sent as well.

So they appear to be prepared to walk a customer through the diagnosis on failed parts and will get the suspect components out to the customer. 

[hdmediaservices]

I don't know if Inno allows for pickup directly.  I can ask for you if you would like.  Do you know where their facilities and offices are? 

If you could ask that would be great. I think they are just out of Shanghai in Suzhou. (From their website). There is a blockchain summit in Shanghai on 19th September.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/industry-to-descend-on-shanghai-for-the-global-blockchain-summit/

Just a thought.

I visit Shanghai (or nearby) several times a year for work.  Direct pickup (and testing) would definitely remove any risk.  Anyone know what the duties would be to the US?

[cloudnthings]

Indeed it would remove the risk and considering the low quantities it would be doable as part of checkin luggage. Wouldn't want to do it for larger quantities though!

[hdmediaservices]

Indeed it would remove the risk and considering the low quantities it would be doable as part of checkin luggage. Wouldn't want to do it for larger quantities though!

I've never brought heavy equipment through check-in luggage out of country.  Seems like you could run into issues.  I think you would be better off shipping directly through DHL.