BTC/USD: Ready for "The Running of the Bears"?

[Vladimir]

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .

[smoothie]

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .

SO Vladimir, at what point are we at in the video right now in terms of bitcoin? lol

[myself]

P.S. -- If you have Netflix you should all watch the documentary called "Mind Over Money"...

not bad http://youtu.be/fYXD-_AMstQ

[Vladimir]

lol, I'd say considering that we have like 7 billion people on this rock.... nahh bad idea..

It is the second guy running over the lawn to join up, while being dragged down by mtgox and his 5500 verification backlog.

[ATC777]

Relax guys. The point is not about silly TA. Bitcoin now is all about exponential growth which will continue until the pool of potential participants is exhausted.

ATC, Analyse this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ .

Perhaps you could learn something from that video... Do you think those people are still all dancing together in that group since they started in 2010? Or did they finally get tired, quit and go home (perhaps to dance again another day)?  

And I'm not sure using a video of a guy doing something stupid and other people following him into doing the same stupid thing was a good way to make your argument!  heheh

[johnniewalker]

Did anyone else notice the graph in the OP went back about a week and a half ago?
I found this graph somewhere else in the Speculations thread (not taking credit for it)

Is it just me, or do you see several "Double Top" Patterns in this longer-term analysis of the market? I'm not trying to be a smart ass or stir up any controversy or anything, but I would like to know what OP has to say about this.

[ATC777]

@ Johnniewalker ::

Boy does that look familiar... parabola? Check... Double-top? Check... Sell-off? 

[johnniewalker]

@ Johnniewalker ::

Boy does that look familiar... parabola? Check... Double-top? Check... Sell-off?  

What if in a panic I had sold in June of '09? Does your model and your encouragement to sell consider those who are in this for the "long haul"? Again, just trying to learn here.
**between Jan and June of '09

[ATC777]

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

[johnniewalker]

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

I was going to say, in defense of OP you mentioned being in a car accident at the beginning of this post, I didn't see anything contradictory in that post. From time to time I check the speculation thread, just for kicks. The truth of the matter is, as Bitcoin is deflationary, the only thing I (someone in for long haul) has to worry about is some government action against Bitcoin, public interest dissipating (seems unlikely at this point), or god forbid some other, unforseen big event.

[Gab1159]

"Technical analysis has made me hundreds of thousands of dollars in stocks, futures, FOREX (currency) and options"

Yet, you were asking for a 3-5 BTC loan... Sure, your TA has suddenly become way more clear...
I guess I'd recommend a financial planner since all those hundreds of thousands of dollars are gone...


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=154814.msg1641108#msg1641108

Anyways, let me save you the trouble of hitting the ignore button... Although you are indeed a funny guy.

I borrowed some coin because I had no way to buy any more and wanted to do something with them. I was just in a car accident, so all the formerly open venues of purchasing bitcoin whenever I want are currently closed. And btw, I succeeded in what I wanted to do (multiplied the 6.00 BTC I borrowed several times, bought some new mining equipment and sold the rest).  

@ johnniewalker:

If you're in it for the long-haul, as in several years, then just ignore all of this short-term volatility. You're playing a totally different ball-game.

Yeah sure...

I never agreed on your analysis but still was giving you credibility. Now the further this thread goes, the smaller your credibility gets. 3-5 btc should be very easy to obtain for any trader. Seriously...If you make "hundreds of thousands of dollars, and can't buy your own bitcoins...

[ATC777]

Yeah sure...

I never agreed on your analysis but still was giving you credibility. Now the further this thread goes, the smaller your credibility gets. 3-5 btc should be very easy to obtain for any trader. Seriously...If you make "hundreds of thousands of dollars, and can't buy your own bitcoins...

Yeah sure what? I got pretty seriously injured. I couldn't even get out of bed. I'm just now able to walk short distances, and my car is totaled. I just wanted a few coins for my bot which I just finished coding, and it really WASN'T worth all the pain and trouble of going to town to buy a MoneyPak or deposit money in another trader's account (I generally trade on OTC).

So no, it's most certainly NOT very easy to obtain bitcoin when you're confined to your bedroom... 

[johnniewalker]

I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.

[BitPirate]

I think the problem is you talk too big a game. I looked at some of your other posts... "small conglomerate startup"? Indeed.

I apologise for the ad-hominem, and pointing out your age -- but I felt I had to. Persona and ambition is all well and good... and you are numerate and literate, which is good. Unfortunately your post lacked substance.

Good luck for the future.

[bitcoinBull]

I started selling yesterday and finished today. But selling at $20 and buying again at $40 doesn't mean you lost any money. It just means you missed an opportunity. And the fear of missing an opportunity has driven men beyond counting to ruin.  

Good advice. But, buying again at $40 was a good trade only in retrospect. And was that not fear of missing an opportunity?

TA is uncertain and we will see false breakouts. Selling to "buy again" on a false breakout and not only did you miss an opportunity, you also lose money. That's why selling to buy dips, in an uptrend, is a losing strategy. You are very lucky to beat the market and if you keep playing, your gains will almost certainly (eventually) be less than the market.

I should know. I have only about 1/3 of the coins I had at $2.00, and I don't ever expect to recover them trading. This market is too bullish even for me. I could kick myself for trying to sell tops and buy dips ever since $2, even more than for not selling at $30 in '11 (doubled my coins rest of the way down). If one is going to trade, there will be good trades and bad ones. You don't get to look back and say "if only I had made only the good ones and none of the bad." You take the good with the bad.

So, I'm not saying that you should never take gains. But I am saying that if (like me) you can't help yourself from trading , an "all out/all in" strategy is extremely risky (due to false breakouts). If you want to pick tops, my advice (for whatever its worth) is to be patient and scale out in small portions through target ranges. Adjust your holding percentage to your degree of certainty.

There is much volatility ahead, and the less panic trading, the better (both individually and collectively).

[ATC777]

I'm not trying to get in the middle here but it sounds like he was layed up in the hospital or something-he got in a car accident. Kind of hard to bitinstant then head to 7/11 to use Moneygram.

Correct, thank you. I didn't stay in the hospital (refused to). But it was no easier. I could've gotten a rental car or a "loaner" from the Mercedes-Benz dealership but I've been on too much pain meds to drive myself anywhere. And have more surgeries and appointments yet to come... sucks...

[ATC777]

I agree if anything I'd keep fiat ready for dips, but I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins.

Well, that's great. I hope that works out for you. You'll notice that I'm not angry about your decision to keep your coins or your bullish opinions... Yet you had to personally attack me and spend all that time to get to "I wouldn't risk selling my bitcoins". Should've just said that in the first place and this thread would be much shorter...

P.S. -- Are you a college student?

[GeoRW]

You are talking about fundamentals but you intantionally didn't mention some very important one. For example, besides the drugs/money landering, we have strong gambling industry evolving and other merchants are accepting bitcoins. Also among the new users we have big whales with strong hands, those are not little guys with couple of thpusand of dollars like most other users, even hedge funds are being created as we speak. Also if you look at the google trends indicator or number of wikipedia views for bitcoin, it is skyrocketing.
I believe this rally will end up badly when the money inflow stops but we are far from it now. It is questionable if we go above 100 ( that's a very strong psychological barrier), but I don't really expect any big crash at this time. The momentum is too strong.

Disclaimer: I've sold almost all of my coins last week  I have less than 500 BTC now, part of it in SDICE shares. I wasn't confortable holding so much at these high prices, so I took the profit. But I still think the rally is far from over . And early adopters don't have enough BTC to crash the market anymore.

[ATC777]

Your analysis seems designed to encourage a sell off which obviously I understand the goal of it now.

Absolutely not.

Also, you are a college student or you were, and your analysis lacks an intended audience, lacks a clear conclusion and it shows duality of opinions and ambiguity or in other words you contradict yourself, like other user said, it lacks substance.

I'm not a college student. That was many years ago. The intended audience was short-term traders, which is glaringly obvious from the very beginning. There is no duality of opinions. I believe a sell-off is coming, and coming soon. That is the conclusion. And I wanted to warn readers that if the price breaks the double-top formation and makes one last crazy move to the upside that they should be very cautious, because that is generally what happens at the end of a parabolic rally. So there was absolutely no contradiction; it was a net bearish post, and I stand by that opinion for better or for worse. No one is right 100% of the time and if I'm wrong it's a drop in the bucket because my money is safe. 

Again you're free to write anything you want, but don't get mad if others disagree with you and clearly many do, even the market does.

I was never angry at any point... the only thing I've taken issue with is your use of personal attacks. I'm still not angry, and won't hold any grudges. There are much better things to get angry about, like people who don't know how to drive! 

[Bowjob]

Though I do not agree with your analysis, your TA was infinitely better than Lucif's who seemingly just slaps a bear chart and adds some jargon that laymen such as I cannot understand.