Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[iamnotback]

XMR and ZEC as quality alternatives to LTC in the future (not yet):

Any one buying precious metals right now and not Bitcoin @$700 is an idiot.

You should be buying BTC aggressively and plan to diversify into any best-of-breed altcoins at the right timing. For example, once XMR and ZEC (Zcash) bottoms, you should be buying aggressively, which will probably after the current up move in BTC matures.

Those who stay in precious metals are going to see losses in 2017 (due to a surging dollar) and then only at most a 4 X gain from current prices over next several years.

Those in solid crypto-currency speculations are going to see 10 - 100 X gain in that same timeframe.

[iamnotback]

i couldn't agree more.
they don't call litecoin as the second to bitcoin (silver) for nothing!
i have been seeing the same patters each time there is a movement in bitcoin price. and this time there has been a big uprise in bitcoin and on litecoin front, it has been stable around 0.006BTC for a long time and it was being accumulated. in other words everything is ready there for a huge rise to 0.01+

Just be aware the wait could be longer than you expected. So only invest in LTC what you don't need for a year.

From other thread:

You might want to bottom fish on LTC for money you don't need to touch for a year.

From a trading point of view that seems reasonable, I mean I dont know why litecoin was so popular but I guess it could be again alongside bitcoin just like the old days.   That prospect seems cheap and increasingly so as bitcoin rises, but Im not confident on just where each coin sits now though and why its user base is there

Bitcoin has problems over political battles. Litcoin doesn't. The creator of Litecoin left Google to work for Coinbase.

You now why Litecoin doesn't have any problems with politics and governments? Because it is insignificant clone of Bitcoin and is not treated seriously by authorities.
Do you honestly think that old altcoin with market cap lower that $200 million will be someday great again?

When you can't get your transactions into Bitcoin block and there is a crisis, Litecoin could be a stopgap measure and see another massive spike. That is precisely the point of a bimetallic standard.

[sandiman]

or simply contrarian strategy instead of momentum strategy. this is probably one of the first strategy that has been empirically tested in trading, so probably around the 50's 

nothing new here.

[iamnotback]

or simply contrarian strategy instead of momentum strategy. this is probably one of the first strategy that has been empirically tested in trading, so probably around the 50's  

nothing new here.

It is the timing of then I wrote the OP that makes the point significant. I wrote it roughly hours preceding the blast off from the $660s and I predicted the forthcoming move to the handle of the cup in the high $700s.

Being a confident contrarian when others are obviously too cautious (because you know something about the pattern that is solid), i.e. so many where fretting over whether we stay within a $100 range. Whereas, it was clear to me a cup was forming and it was time to form definitely the right side of cup, both from a contrarian perspective and also the structure of the chart (couldn't delay much longer the formation of the right side of the cup).

It is an instinctive feel that good traders have. My record speaks for itself:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

[sandiman]

or simply contrarian strategy instead of momentum strategy. this is probably one of the first strategy that has been empirically tested in trading, so probably around the 50's  

nothing new here.

It is the timing of then I wrote the OP that makes the point significant. I wrote it roughly hours preceding the blast off from the $660s and I predicted the forthcoming move to the handle of the cup in the high $700s.

Being a confident contrarian when others are obviously too cautious (because you know something about the pattern that is solid), i.e. so many where fretting over whether we stay within a $100 range. Whereas, it was clear to me a cup was forming and it was time to form definitely the right side of cup, both from a contrarian perspective and also the structure of the chart (couldn't delay much longer the formation of the right side of the cup).

It is an instinctive feel that good traders have. My record speaks for itself:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

So you've been contrarian once, and since then momentum trader.  

Anyway, waiting for FOMO next year or even end of this year to be contrarian myself too 

[iamnotback]

The facts for 2016:

Gold +22.5% YTD
Long Bond US Treasury TLT +9.1% YTD
SP500 +2.7% YTD

Armstrong & shills predictions for 2016:
OMG gold going to sub $1000 or even to sub $850.
Bonds US Treasury exploding to the downside (the infamous 2015.75 big bang).
SP500 skyrocketing due to capital flows.

The BS is over. No verbal (or should I say written) diarrhea is going to change anything. The emperor is naked.

Facts:

• Edward Snowden making his final move of no return to release NSA exposé on the exact turn date (April 22, 2013) for Armstrong's model of the peak of the USA empire.
• Putin officially entered the war in Syria on Oct. 1, 2015, precisely Armstrong's major ECM (Economic Confidence Model) turn date 2015.75.
• Per my prior post above, Assange+USA intelligence+FBI initiated a counter-coup against the Establishment politicians on Oct. 28, 2016, precisely to the day of the current turn date of Armstrong's ECM. Also the Bundy's were acquitted which was the first time a jury went against the Establishment in 200 years.
• Dollar is up since the peak (various currencies peaked between 2011 and 2016):
  +90% against gold
  +60% Australian dollar
  +41% British pound
  +53% Canadian dollar
  +60% Chilean peso
  +13% Chinese yuan (non-floating currency rate)
  +38% Euro
  +35% Indian rupee
  +60% Japanese yen valley-to-peak (note the dollar has slumped against yen so far in 2016)
  +43% Swiss franc
• FX exchange volume $5.3 trillion daily, versus $3 billion monthly for precious metals
• USA DJIA up +75% in same period. Armstrong's model has been predicted a double to triple since 2011.
• Armstrong's War Cycle model pinpointing Ukraine, Middle East, and rapefugees crisises decades before they occurred.
• etc

You'd have to be a fucking blind moron to not see what is going on.

[iamnotback]

Another opportunity to buy when others are fearful. Take your gift immediately while illogical fear is maximum and there is blood in the streets.

Re: China putting capital controls on BTC! (lol)

Afaics, the only practical technical way this can be accomplished is to ensure that the users never hold the private keys and thus ensuring that the exchanges do not allow any transfers to any Bitcoin address which is not controlled by the exchange (or another compliant exchange). To ensure that no exchange user can reside outside of China and that no such user can withdraw in fiat outside of the Chinese banking system. If they were to allow users to control private keys, then they would have to enforce such tracking on each user which is impractical to enforce.

Thus this proposal means that the Chinese could no longer participate in for example a social network (such as the project I am working on) where the crypto-currency moves from user-to-user regardless of their financial jurisdiction and in which the users control their private keys.

In other words, China would effectively be removing their citizens from the Bitcoin (and crypto-currency) ecosystem.

I don't see any way they can do this and not render China a 2nd class citizen on the future of the Internet economics. They will stunt the development of their own Internet software technology sector.

If China was going to do this, I think they would have done it a long time ago. I would tend to think this is some rumor put out there by those who wanted to make a lot of money shorting. Another sign that the corruption in governance also exists in the government of China's finance bureaucrats (and who would be surprised). Nevertheless before this could actually become a regulation, I think very astute people would have to sign off on it, and I just don't see China shooting themselves in the foot. They are too cunning for that. That Bloomberg has pulled the news off their website is another indication that this was probably malfeasance.

I see this as very likely a buying opportunity and a bear trap due to some errant malfeasance within the Chinese bureaucracy.

And also that the China's oligarchy control over Bitcoin mining and price is growing. If true, this corrupt influence over Bitcoin is what Bitcoin was supposed to eliminate. But the problem is Satoshi's proof-of-work design naturally centralizes due to economies-of-scale. I have a video which explains this in some detail. And also we can see the control over the exchanges by governments is another choke point of control leading to such malfeasance.

We need to do something about this technically. I am working on it. I have a design for unprofitable proof-of-work to address this problem. TPTB_need_war (who some think is me since I am reputed to be AnonyMint) has also done conceptual technical design work on decentralized exchange (and there is some new research on that I haven't yet published). But decentralized exchange probably isn't really the solution because speculators don't want to trade where volume is low and trades aren't instantaneous. Instead the solution is probably about how we onboard millions of users and thus create an ecosystem where fiat is irrelevant for the users, i.e. the crypto-unit becomes the unit-of-account. In that case, the speculators become orthogonal to the users to a great extent (not entirely of course). If China were to wall off their population from this sort of Internet ecosystem, they would I think fall to 2nd class citizens on the Internet. Building their own walled gardens for such would again mean centralized control over private keys, which would mean massive failure due to hackers.

China will lose this gambit (of control over crypto-currency) eventually.

[iamnotback]

P.S. I think it will probably come back down and touch at least $650. The reaction buying is probably a bit steep right now to sustain.

There might be a head&shoulder pattern forming which will take the price down to fill that gap up (Oct 22-23) from just below $650 before we complete this correction. This is not a certainty.

[iamnotback]

P.S. I think it will probably come back down and touch at least $650. The reaction buying is probably a bit steep right now to sustain.

There might be a head&shoulder pattern forming which will take the price down to fill that gap up (Oct 22-23) from just below $650 before we complete this correction. This is not a certainty.

That potential H&S was just violated with the move to $716. Time to board the train next stop $789ish.

[sandiman]

P.S. I think it will probably come back down and touch at least $650. The reaction buying is probably a bit steep right now to sustain.

There might be a head&shoulder pattern forming which will take the price down to fill that gap up (Oct 22-23) from just below $650 before we complete this correction. This is not a certainty.

That potential H&S was just violated with the move to $716. Time to board the train next stop $789ish.

lol

[piloder]

Buy when others are irrationally pessimistic proved true in recent dump when chinese fake report become public. Small level traders were panicing just after news came out and loads of bitcoin got sold within few hour and guess who bought them? By all the optimistic whales. 

[Red-Apple]

Buy when others are irrationally pessimistic proved true in recent dump when chinese fake report become public. Small level traders were panicing just after news came out and loads of bitcoin got sold within few hour and guess who bought them? By all the optimistic whales. 

i bought too and i just a little itty bitty fish

you have to find these chances when everyone is full of it and especially when you see desperate whales on this board are creating new topics to say bitcoin is dead, that is the time to sell your house and buy bitcoin!

[sandiman]

Buy when others are irrationally pessimistic proved true in recent dump when chinese fake report become public. Small level traders were panicing just after news came out and loads of bitcoin got sold within few hour and guess who bought them? By all the optimistic whales. 

let's bookmark the latter and come back to it in around 2 weeks 

[zby]

"buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious"

This is not a rule - this is a tautology. If you don't think that the price others offer is too low (i.e. they are irrationally pessimistic) - then you would not buy.

[zby]

Buy when others are irrationally pessimistic proved true in recent dump when chinese fake report become public. Small level traders were panicing just after news came out and loads of bitcoin got sold within few hour and guess who bought them? By all the optimistic whales. 

Those who sold first could buy it back cheaper - the wrong move was to sell too slow

And by they way I have the feeling that we'll have at least one more leg down.

[criptix]

Buy when others are irrationally pessimistic proved true in recent dump when chinese fake report become public. Small level traders were panicing just after news came out and loads of bitcoin got sold within few hour and guess who bought them? By all the optimistic whales. 

Of course.
Noobs with 100.000 coins.
Always.

[Goms]

If you buy when others are pessimistic, they may be pessimistic for good reasons - the coin is no good.
If you buy that type of coin, you will be a bag-holder with no buyers in sight.

[iamnotback]

If you buy when others are pessimistic

I had the word 'irrationally'' before the word 'pessimistic'. Please read more carefully next time.

[iamnotback]

Those of you who would have sold gold a couple of weeks ago when I was urging you to do so, would be smiling instead of frowning.

Dollar & USA Stocks up, bonds, gold and Europe down (thus interest rates up).

Bet against Armstrong's international capital flows themes at your peril as it is all playing out as his computer model said it would:

Very interesting that much media coverage surrounding Europe today have claimed the Trump rally has faded already. Core European indices drifted into negative territory and closing -0.25% but the UK’s FTSE and Spain’s IBEX were both down around 1.4%. The market is reacting to the USD strength certainly against the Euro as we see the capital flows begin to increase.

The US markets continued yesterdays move opening over 200 points higher on the DOW whilst maintaining volume. What was encouraging was that having seen new highs the rest of the day remained in that area eventually closing a tad higher on the day. NASDAQ had a volatile day with some profit-taking in some expensive and more popular stocks which briefly took it down 2% in a move but managed to hold and even saw a small bounce. We continued to see previous safe-haven asset class positions be unwound with gold falling another $15 today closing around $1257.

Treasuries were sold yet again with US 10’s adding another 10bp to close 2.15%.

[iamnotback]

P.S. I think it will probably come back down and touch at least $650. The reaction buying is probably a bit steep right now to sustain.

There might be a head&shoulder pattern forming which will take the price down to fill that gap up (Oct 22-23) from just below $650 before we complete this correction. This is not a certainty.

That potential H&S was just violated with the move to $716. Time to board the train next stop $789ish.

lol

Note the bolded parts. Speculation is not about closing your eyes and covering your ears.