Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[bitebits]

[...]
The only thing that slightly concerns me is that everyone seems to be bullish... which goes against the "buy when others are fearful, sell when others are greedy" logic

Now go out there and ask random people on the street about their perception of Bitcoin.

Bitcointalk.org exists in a bubble. We are talking pennies here if Bitcoin gets some real adoption / goes beyond the clickbait MSM view.

[Dafar]

OP, every time I see your username I read "I am not black" ......please change it

[tokeweed]

Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

For trading in general it's buy on strength and sell on weakness.  But with Bitcoin's case it's buy the dips and hold, so the OP has the right idea, but only with Bitcoin.

[pereira4]

Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

For trading in general it's buy on strength and sell on weakness.  But with Bitcoin's case it's buy the dips and hold, so the OP has the right idea, but only with Bitcoin.

Yeah, buy the dips and hold on bitcoin never fails to deliver, we just saw this in action a couple of hours ago, I bought at 765 dip and now we are back at 781. The uptrend is so healthy and strong we are going to test 800 soon.

With altcoins is too much of a gamble, you never know if you are buying a dip or you are buying in a never ending lowtrend towards infinite stagnation....

[iamnotback]

$1300 in 2017, probably within 6 months or less. We've broken out above $788 Bitfinex-hack high, accelerating, opening wedge, and two flag patterns. This is uber bullish.

Re: is it time to start seriously talking about a $5000 BTC

I expected a correction because the price went too high too quickly. Most of the time when we see it spike high like that, it will come back a little.

They will play you as well, because you'll be the one who sells too early when the price rocket goes into a phase transition run to ATHs. They will eventually do that after they done shaking weak hands out. Your stance can be characterized as another form of weak hand because of selling too soon into a bull run.

The first bubble to $1200 in 2013 was the first hump of the typical new technology invesment. The second major hump is the big enchilada and you should never sell except possibly to trade to altcoins to increase your BTC, if you are so inclined and are astute at such speculation.

BTC appears to be currently at either the early 2007 or the late 2009 point on that Amazon chart.

If we are at the late 2009 correlation, then $1000 will be scaled in 2017 and we will not go back below $1000 after that.

And yes something in range of $2500 - $5000 over the next couple of years looks plausible and even likely.

Just look at the events around us to see what is accelerating:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1703363.msg17077372#msg17077372
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1699911.msg17077124#msg17077124
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1703213.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1687448.msg17056883#msg17056883
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16842246#msg16842246
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16921886#msg16921886
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg16972102#msg16972102


It Is Just Time.

Time is upon us for BTC to make another big move up. Don't be late to board the train because you are irrationally too cautious:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1663070.msg17049006#msg17049006

Sentiment in this thread is very cautious and scared.

That is extremely bullish.

We are climbing the wall of worry now. Everybody is still remembering the $1200 to $150 crash.

When the "Bitcoin to $100,000" (to da moon) mania returns, that is the time to become cautious.

[sandiman]

linear scale...

[jjacob]

Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

For trading in general it's buy on strength and sell on weakness.  But with Bitcoin's case it's buy the dips and hold, so the OP has the right idea, but only with Bitcoin.

Yeah, buy the dips and hold on bitcoin never fails to deliver, we just saw this in action a couple of hours ago, I bought at 765 dip and now we are back at 781. The uptrend is so healthy and strong we are going to test 800 soon.

With altcoins is too much of a gamble, you never know if you are buying a dip or you are buying in a never ending lowtrend towards infinite stagnation....

With Bitcoin, it makes sense to buy (as early as possible) and hold.
If you plan to buy at the dips, you need to have cash in hand. There is a possibility that you might miss out on the real big bull run.
Plus you need to cash out at sometime to ensure that you can buy at the next dip.

[BingoDog]

Sometimes when buying it depends if you are a trader or regular user. For traders is very important to keep an eye on the market all the time aln "listen" how is behaving. Good traders can estimate the situation and go even against all trends and predictions and profit when other expect that at least. For common usres is maybe the best just for the moment when the price is afordable and then keep the coins long term.

[Tanic]

Sometimes when buying it depends if you are a trader or regular user. For traders is very important to keep an eye on the market all the time aln "listen" how is behaving. Good traders can estimate the situation and go even against all trends and predictions and profit when other expect that at least. For common usres is maybe the best just for the moment when the price is afordable and then keep the coins long term.

To be a good trader you have to have a talent and necessary skills. I doubt that every human can become a good trader even if special traders book promise that. A think after bitcoin will reach the point of 1000$ many people will cash out their money and the price for bitcoin will fall. That's going to be good time to buy bitcoins.

[iamnotback]

Remember the theme of this thread. This pullback from $927 is very healthy, as it means we are going much higher. I was originally thinking I should take some profits ~$1000 or so, but with this pullback, it is becoming more likely that we are going to push much higher than the prior ATH.

OP, every time I see your username I read "I am not black" ......please change it

All the more reason I should not change it, just to piss off you fucking leftist retards who are evil.

70% of those who voted are leftists. Thus for sure mankind is doomed. But the planet will be doing just fine regardless.

I voted to save the planet. That doesn't mean that I am a leftist. If you check my post history, you can see that a lot of people here have accused me of harboring far-right ideology. I just want to preserve the planet for the future generations. I don't want my kids to suffer from the misdeeds of our generation. They also have a right to live on this planet.

But (if) your ideology causes you to need to enforce your will on others who desire to opt-out and govern themselves. Thus you are a leftist.

I may care about the environment, and I may agree with local communities regulating against wanton environmental destruction.

But global social justice is evil regardless of the nobleness of your intent.

In short, stop worrying so much, as linked video in the following quote explains:

Leftists don't care about mankind. They care about their self-importance, Volvos, and bike paths. And they are the most violent threat to freewill and mankind.

The only generative essence absolute I can think of so far which I can't refute, is our desire to give meaning to our perception of our existence.

This explains the necessity of death. Eternal continuity of perception could not coexist with wonderment because everything that exists would have always been. We'd lose that fundamental absolute which drives the differentiation between the past and future light cones of relativity.

I had a 1 hour "Merry Christmas" conversation with my mother and all was going well until I explained that AGW is a farce (we got off on that tangent because I mentioned that Trump might help the immigration of my relatives and my other said "if the country survives Trump" and I told her not to worry because the liberals would probably win the next Presidential election). My mom explained the reason she believes in social justice because she said in her lifetime we have proof it works. She said we in the Deep South saw the end of racism against blacks. I am even old enough to remember how much discrimination against blacks has improved in the Deep South. So I agreed with her on that point. She was aghast that her son wouldn't care about the environment we leave to our offspring. She said she only has maybe at most 20 more years remaining in her life, thus the meaning of her existence is all tied into leftism. She was ready to hang up the phone in a bad mood, and I told her, "mom I do care about the environment, but environment is not climate.". She said she didn't understand that distinction but we ended up on a happy ending because she was relieved that I do care about the environment.

So that is an example of both my quote above and also why leftists can destroy society because of their own ignorant social justice. It is true that humans can impact the environment, but they can't impact the long-term climate.

Trumpocalypse?

Now that the shoe is on the other foot, many liberals all over America have suddenly become extremely interested in prepping.

Fearing that a Trump presidency could rapidly evolve into a "Trumpocalypse", a significant number of leftists are now stockpiling food, guns and emergency supplies.  In fact, even though many had expected a sharp drop in gun sales following Trump's victory, what actually happened is that fear of what is coming under Trump pushed background checks for gun sales to an all-time record high on Black Friday.  The election of Donald Trump has awakened the left to a degree that we haven't seen in decades, and some on the left are embracing hardcore survivalism without any apologies.

What is ironic about all of this is that on the other end of the political spectrum interest in prepping is probably the lowest that it has ever been in the history of the modern prepper movement.  A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article about how it was like "a nuclear bomb went off in the prepping community", and nothing has changed since that time.

Read more at http://www.infowars.com/trumpocalypse-suddenly-liberals-are-the-ones-stockpiling-food-guns-and-emergency-supplies/.

[Fakhoury]

Remember the theme of this thread. This pullback from $927 is very healthy, as it means we are going much higher. I was originally thinking I should take some profits ~$1000 or so, but with this pullback, it is becoming more likely that we are going to push much higher than the prior ATH.

Iamnotback, glad to see you are updating the thread, much appreciated

Do you have any ETA, when is the next big up leg could talk place at ? Before or after new year for example ?

Waiting to hear from you, in a detailed manner if you don't mind

[iamnotback]

$1300 in 2017, probably within 6 months or less. We've broken out above $788 Bitfinex-hack high, accelerating, opening wedge, and two flag patterns. This is uber bullish.

It is not possible to give a precise price point and timing. But we need to hit the extension of that upper green line at some point. So before summer 2017, it projects $1400 - $1500 (on a non-logarithmic chart or higher on a log chart).

We could head there very quickly or we could meander.

My gut says we are headed there ($1300ish) very quickly to a new ATH, then after that we will perhaps meander before going much higher. But it could be the other way, we meander, then later in Spring blast through $1300 to much higher prices.

The reason to favor not meandering now, is look at that chart. There is no overhead resistance until we get in the region of the former ATH ~$1200 - $1300.

[Fakhoury]

$1300 in 2017, probably within 6 months or less. We've broken out above $788 Bitfinex-hack high, accelerating, opening wedge, and two flag patterns. This is uber bullish.

It is not possible to give a precise price point and timing. But we need to hit the extension of that upper green line at some point. So before summer 2017, it projects $1400 - $1500.

We could head there very quickly or we could meander.

My gut says we are headed there ($1300ish) very quickly to a new ATH, then after that we will perhaps meander before going much higher. But it could be the other way, we meander, then later in Spring blast through $1300 to much higher prices.

Thanks for the quick reply, much appreciated.

1. Don't you think it's bearish to think for only $1.5K for 2017, unless you meant only the summer of 2017 ?

2. Where do you think we will top at 31.Dec ?

[iamnotback]

1. Don't you think it's bearish to think for only $1.5K for 2017, unless you meant only the summer of 2017 ?

2. Where do you think we will top at 31.Dec ?

See also the sentence I added to my prior post.

1. Yes. That was only for a minimum objective before summer (perhaps much sooner).

2. Depends if we meander now or not. I will not attempt to make such short-term calls, because the shorter the term, less likely one can do better than flipping the dice.

[Fakhoury]

1. Don't you think it's bearish to think for only $1.5K for 2017, unless you meant only the summer of 2017 ?

2. Where do you think we will top at 31.Dec ?

See also the sentence I added to my prior post.

1. Yes. That was only for a minimum objective before summer (perhaps much sooner).

2. Depends if we meander now or not. I will not attempt to make such short-term calls, because the shorter the term, less likely one can do better than flipping the dice.

Perfect, it's clear for me now.

Thanks a river my friend

[miscreanity]

The following was analysis from January 3rd.

We seem to have broken out of the channel seen in the above chart and there's nothing but air until the previous ATH, unless this week falls back below 980.

Here is an updated chart.



The projection line tops out at about $1210 this week and $1250 by end of month. If the value doubles on a weekly basis, that is an immediate sell signal for me. It would have to approach $2000 in that case. Since we have not yet seen a spike in volume that would indicate trend exhaustion I consider that potential still in play.

Diversification assets in crypto, in order of preference:

• XMR
• LTC
• ETH
• ETC
• ZEC

Any others that are promising?

[megadeth]

The following was analysis from January 3rd.

Welcome back legend.

[miscreanity]

Welcome back legend.

Thanks

Updated view:



My trading target was (ATH - 2%) that resulted in $1151 on Bitfinex from the $1175 high of December 2013 (similar price levels on other exchanges). Price is now below $985 which is just back within the channel and has already made a 50% retracement from today's low. My view is to acknowledge the significant piercing of the upper channel border with a likely retest of the high, probably in the form of a cup & handle. The question is: how long will that take?

The Gann chart shows an important period ending this month. In the prior period change from May 2016, there was a head-fake dip just before price took off. Price then rose while gyrating around the Gann 1x1 line, all within the channel from the ~$160 low. We're also at the third pair of the Gann chart, which has been pierced but not yet definitively exceeded. The next Gann period changes in October 2017 which could mark the end of the handle. It is difficult for me to find any point where Bitcoin would decline below $800 during that period; sub-$700 would fall out of the channel and seems an incredibly unlikely path.

With the recent high I've expanded the channel. The initial channel from the November 2015 high is the blue dotted line with shaded area, and the second one from the June 2016 high is the thin blue line. The dashed purple line is the midpoint of the latest channel currently at just under $910, which is barely less than the initial channel top line at $920. Back in June 2016 the initial channel was tested but not exceeded.

Bitcoin is behaving very similarly to equity markets, albeit with a lag. This is probably due to a spillover effect where capital flows into the largest pools first (major currency and equity markets) and as resistance builds there, excess then flows down to the next tiers - including Bitcoin. Observe that volume is still very low compared to what would be expected during major runs like this with only Kraken showing a significant spike in USD and Chinese exchanges being consistently high during 2016.

Martin Armstrong has stated that market behavior this month should provide perspective for how things will unravel. I think Bitcoin will continue to behave mostly in line with how Armstrong describes the flows into other major markets seeking relative safety and return. That also applies to other cryptocurrencies and, considering the size of those markets relative to Bitcoin, they should rise at a higher rate.

This is a critical period and, unless Bitcoin retests or exceeds ATH again, I will not be trading BTCUSD until buying in the $700-850 range. All of my trading is now going back to crypto-only, primarily BTC/ETH/LTC/XMR. I will reevaluate toward the end of January.

tl;dr: Unless situation changes before end of January, Bitcoin in 2017 is likely to form cup & handle - handle may take most of the year to form and will probably stay above $800.

[iamnotback]

It is not certain, but I think Bitcoin is on a technological adoption curve and is not related to what is going on in the general macro economy.

Thus I expect the accelerated trajectory to hold an we will be back above $1000 before April and new ATHs before summer.

If my thesis is correct, the low of this correction should be above $800.

However, miscreanity may be correct and we may form another cup & handle similar to the Bitfinex correction, which might bring the low to $700 above the bottom upchannel support line with a much longer duration before making new highs. This would be especially true if we get any rumor out of China or India regulating Bitcoin further for capital controls. I don't expect it since Bitcoin is such an irrelevant small market cap, but Armstrong seems to think otherwise (yet he is not a Bitcoin expert and is always harping on this end of cash theme):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/bitcoin-what-next/

In any case, I very much doubt that we rapidly move back to $1100 and this is healthy so the bull market remains intact for a longer period.

Also we will probably get a short-term bounce at some point during this correction. So we might move back up to say the $950 - $1000 level at some point in the near-term.

[BillyBobZorton]

It is not certain, but I think Bitcoin is on a technological adoption curve and is not related to what is going on in the general macro economy.

Thus I expect the accelerated trajectory to hold an we will be back above $1000 before April and new ATHs before summer.

If my thesis is correct, the low of this correction should be above $800.

However, miscreanity may be correct and we may form another cup & handle similar to the Bitfinex correction, which might bring the low to $700 above the bottom upchannel support line with a much longer duration before making new highs. This would be especially true if we get any rumor out of China or India regulating Bitcoin further for capital controls. I don't expect it since Bitcoin is such an irrelevant small market cap, but Armstrong seems to think otherwise (yet he is not a Bitcoin expert and is always harping on this end of cash theme):

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/taxes/bitcoin-what-next/

In any case, I very much doubt that we rapidly move back to $1100 and this is healthy so the bull market remains intact for a longer period.

Also we will probably get a short-term bounce at some point during this correction. So we might move back up to say the $950 - $1000 level at some point in the near-term.

I get tempted to sell at $900 (right now we are at $901) because the $800 ish stable zone (with a potential dip to $700) makes sense and I lost the possibility to make some extra BTC by selling at $1100, but im too paranoid about it... at the end of the day we don't know what can happen. Going from the current $901 to $800 may seem reasonable but I may wake up to $1000+ again tomorrow for I all know... this is bitcoin after all.
I don't want to be left behind in a bad move holding USDT (I would use USDT in poloniex so I can avoid giving details to exchanges since there's no way im dealing with real fiat, so USDT seems like the alternative to try to play the BTC market a bit and stay anonymous)