Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[iamnotback]

quite a  bit of consolidation going on.

Into altcoins lately. But maybe now it is about to change direction?

[iamnotback]

As a bitcoin holder, how are you going to deal with the following days regarding the ETF? Looks like the price may tank. Im considering selling some in Poloniex using the USDT, wait a couple of days and rebuy back, i've seen a lot of people wanting to do this, this leads me to believe we may see a serious dip and I don't want to be the idiot watching the price tank, at least if I can profit from it I will feel better, since im sure it will recover im not worried long term but I need to make more BTC and this seems like a good opportunity. I doubt price will go any higher than $1200 before dump party begins.

Of course there is the possibility of ETF passing and the market going nuts about it and we may see $1300+... but odds are against that.

If I had a verified account on Poloniex so I could trade to fiat, I would probably consider selling 20% as a hedge at some price north of $1250. I would not buy into altcoins because when Bitcoin's price declines, more money moves from altcoins into Bitcoins to take advantage of the dip opportunity. So altcoins decline more on a percentage basis than Bitcoin. The time to buy altcoins is as Bitcoin starts to rise significantly, then altcoins go bonkers, but sell the altcoins before Bitcoin peaks. Note sentiment about the ETF event is perfectly balanced.

[iamnotback]

Cryptocurrency offers more utility than gold can ever imagine

The only purpose of metals as currency is to remove counter party risk while also satisfying a few other traits of money such as divisibility, durability, portability, fungibility, etc.  Bitcoin doesn't actually remove counter party risk at all.  It's also not fungible and any crypto that's not fungible is a permissioned ledger by default.  Nor is it a valid store of generational wealth like gold and silver because the entire thing can just blow up at random.  

Therefore, the only thing bitcoin really does better is portability and a bit better granularity (with the added inconvenience of giant technical burden).  In current state you have to be flat out lying to say bitcoin beats gold and silver as money.  It's clearly inferior and there is no evidence that relationship will change anytime soon (beyond wild claims by Anonymintcoin).  Bitcoin is only a currency and gold and silver are money; there's a big difference.

The market is telling you that Bitcoin is the reserve currency of the experimentation that will unleash all that utility that crypto-currency and blockchains can do which precious metals never can. Bitcoin is now at parity with gold. The pattern of Android below is what crypto is going to do relative to precious metals:

He is like 3-4 years behind any decent competition

[miscreanity]

The chances of BTC going below $1000 are rapidly dwindling. We're currently at the top of the red channel from my prior posts, and if we exceed $1288-1290 for more than a day it's very likely the trend will continue.

Eventually we may have to retest $1000-1100 but that's likely to be short-lived and sometime around Armstrong's call to beware of April. As of now I still see only the beginning of an acceleration in trend. If we hold above $1265, I think it will be more of a pause in trend than a correction. It still seems that $1300-1500 is being reached for. To borrow a term from Armstrong - this may be a phase transition; the rules seem to be shifting.

As we saw $1265 was broken to the downside and $1000-1100 was tested, for which my time frame was obviously incorrect. Additionally, $1300 has been breached.

In the chart below, the original channel from the August 2015 low is the shaded area with blue dotted top line; the first expanded channel is marked by the blue line from about 920-1080; the second expanded channel is the green line with dark green dashed mid-point; the accelerated channel is shown by the red lines, with purple dashed mid-point.

Projection lines are the thin blue line from the low of January 12th through the low of January 31st, and the bold blue line from the August 2015 low through the June 2016 high.

Note the range today extended both below the mid-point (purple dotted line) of the accelerated channel (red lines) as well as above the high. This is present on all exchanges, so is not a unique glitch but probably due to low volumes.

Very important - we're still above the expanded channel (green) and if it remains that way over the weekend, it will become support. Additionally, price has reached up to the bold projection line.

The resistance range I'm looking at is $1270-1290. Breaking above that on more than a spike is a good indication that there is further upside.

We are entering a massive exodus from the Euro and into dollars and other safe havens outside the collapsing economies of Europe due to BREXIT and will accelerate when Le Pen is elected in France in 2 months. This will also drive an increase in speculation in those assets which are ignited by this flood of capital seeking a home.

I am still uncertain whether there will be a liquidation event in Europe around that time frame. If so, it may cause another sharp correction before continuing higher.

[miscreanity]

I guess what you want to say here is that Bitcoin is evolving from growth phase to a mature phase, am I right ?

If I'm right, could you please describe the new era in numbers ? Like what are you expecting in the coming years, what high numbers do you see is achivable and such ?

Bitcoin as a system is maturing.

I agree with iamnotback's assessments on altcoins and cryptocurrencies in general.

... Maybe $2000-2500 to start. After a correction from there, a flood will probably start (likely coming from Asia & Europe) with $6000 as an initial target for late 2017 to 2018.

The relative size of Bitcoin compared to other pools of wealth (commodities, currencies, equities, etc.) partially determines the possible gains. The other primary aspect is usage: the more Bitcoin is used, the more value it gains and the greater share of traditional wealth it will accrue. This transition is always in motion among various different assets, but reaches an equilibrium range after a turbulent period. Potential exists for five or even six-figure valuation, but in that case I think it would be better to simply maintain some holdings rather than trade.

At this point I feel the need to diverge a bit and speak from personal experience, not just to you but for anyone reading... Keep in mind that major cyclical transition turbulence is likely to involve much more than just monetary movements - civil unrest, disease, war, etc. Surviving all of these in the hopes of attaining vast monetary holdings is a trapping of material thinking.

The only things that last through all of this are your relationships and reputations with others. Among consenting parties, what delineates a beneficially constructive relationship or reputation and a harmfully destructive one is the element of control - manipulation and power struggles cause eventual failure and animosity, not to mention the cognitive load incurred in maintaining such a power structure.

Yes, it is certainly possible to attain financial independence and leave the traditional workforce through trading but always trade responsibly and always have an alternative path for yourself, whether a career or hobby. Those around you have value that exceeds any monetary gain - cultivate those relationships more than your account balances.

[iamnotback]

I guess what you want to say here is that Bitcoin is evolving from growth phase to a mature phase, am I right ?

If I'm right, could you please describe the new era in numbers ? Like what are you expecting in the coming years, what high numbers do you see is achivable and such ?

Bitcoin as a system is maturing.

See charts:

http://www.coindesk.com/using-google-trends-detect-bitcoin-price-bubbles/

[iamnotback]

At this point I feel the need to diverge a bit and speak from personal experience, not just to you but for anyone reading... Keep in mind that major cyclical transition turbulence is likely to involve much more than just monetary movements - civil unrest, disease, war, etc. Surviving all of these in the hopes of attaining vast monetary holdings is a trapping of material thinking.

The only things that last through all of this are your relationships and reputations with others. Among consenting parties, what delineates a beneficially constructive relationship or reputation and a harmfully destructive one is the element of control - manipulation and power struggles cause eventual failure and animosity, not to mention the cognitive load incurred in maintaining such a power structure.

Yes, it is certainly possible to attain financial independence and leave the traditional workforce through trading but always trade responsibly and always have an alternative path for yourself, whether a career or hobby. Those around you have value that exceeds any monetary gain - cultivate those relationships more than your account balances.

Being genuinely happy with the fewest things you need to control is indeed the most antifragile happiness along the journey:

The world isn't so neatly ordered as we may want it to be. It is a journey, not comparative level or one-right-way. High horses are for those too blind to see their pedestal teetering on stilts in quicksand. Babylon.

Note there are those who are in a much worse predicament than me. I can't fathom their suffering. I suffered so much and I don't even want to remember it. So I see what these sufferers are going through and I can't even tolerate thinking about it. I feel for them but I don't even want to feel for them. I have no reserve of strength to suffer more (really if they didn't cure this I was getting tired of fighting) to even entertain the thought of suffering. I want to be far away from it for a long while. Perhaps the example of Jesus wasn't to emulate him but to realize he suffered for us, because we aren't capable of suffering all of it (no matter how strong we think we are). I am not becoming religious again, just saying.

If I will become wealthy, I think I must pay for the surgery for those who suffering such this man who will soon go blind without surgery to remove tumors from his face. How could you make this man a little bit happy. The gravity of it.

[iamnotback]

Note the quoted post below contains the original point about where the Bitcoin price is headed.

We need to destroy and replace StackExchange by putting the functionality on a decentralized blockchain. This will be one of the apps I'd like to see created for the OpenShare blockchain technology I am now developing.

Upvote me at StackExchange please:

Re: 22 year old inherited 30k from 529 payout; wondering best way to invest

Invest 50% in the DOW index and sell ALL when it hits 40,000 in couple of years.

Invest the rest in Bitcoin and sell half when it exceeds $2000 - $2500 within next year or so.

The big question is what to buy when you sell those because we are headed into an epic global economic disaster that will have the governments confiscating most assets. Perhaps gold.

Start reading ArmstrongEconomics.com blog if you want to know what is really going on. We have an extensive discussion on that. I am @iamnotback there.

Disclaimer: these are my unprofessional ideas. Do not hold me responsible for your investment decisions. I am supposed to tell you to consult with a professional adviser, even though I think they will lose all your money in the coming economic collapse.

StackExchange deleted my answer above and they added the following protection to the answer:

protected by Ganesh Sittampalam♦ 14 hours ago

Thank you for your interest in this question. Because it has attracted low-quality or spam answers that had to be removed, posting an answer now requires 10 reputation on this site (the association bonus does not count).

That foolish Hitler moderator also deleted my comments. I had put the following comment below my answer after someone had downvoted it:

You'll see an enormous number of downvotes from ignorant fools who will lose all their wealth over the next few years, because they think my ideas are not sound nor conservative enough. Lol. Mark my word. Come back to my post in a few years.

I also had comments on each of the other answers, such as on the most popular answer I wrote that putting a large amount of money in a bank account long-term was one of the stupidest things one could do because the government will be coming after all assets and bail-ins are very likely especially in the EU. On the answer about maxing out retirement plan contributions, I had commented saying that the governments would nationalize the retirement plan assets and that one should be taking early withdrawals asap. On the answer about how investment advisers follow a conservative portfolio to minimize downside risk, I said the coming crash of 35+ year sovereign bond bubble would cause one to lose all their assets by being conservative.

We need to destroy and replace StackExchange...

Btw, that links to the Meta discussion area of StackExchange, but it appears they going to censor what I wrote there also:

How is StackExchange's censorship going to compete again decentralization?

StackExchange MUST and WILL die.

Observing them downvote without any discussion, I added the following comment to the bottom of the question.

Where the hell can we discuss something with you guys without incurring censorship if not in meta? So you're going to downvote and delete this also! Shoot yourselves in the foot. I am coming after you and I will destroy your centralized paradigm. We can still have moderators in a decentralized paradigm, but everyone can individually and freely choose which moderators they ignore.

[iamnotback]

Re: RogerCoin

He went from Bitcoin Jesus to Bitcoin Antichrist LOL

RogerVer's BU is lonesomely incompetent. Expect a reversal back to Bitcoin Core soon. Last chance to buy under $1000 before the rocket leaves the launch pad to $2000+. (Caveat, make sure my linked point is technically correct first ... I'm waiting peer review...)

[iamnotback]

Last chance to buy under $1000 before the rocket leaves the launch pad to $2000+. (Caveat, make sure my linked point is technically correct first ... I'm waiting peer review...)

Market test underway.

Once again we have a situation of, buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious. I have technical knowledge which says that market is currently irrationally pessimistic.

So far, I had been correct every time in this thread when I said to buy (e.g. mid-$600s before the blast off, $800 on the pullback from $1200, and now let's see if I am correct again this time).

[iamnotback]

Latest info i've read was late march.

Miners don't care about long term if they sell right away. They didn't activate segwit because they could lose short term profits, even though it could take btc to 2k.

http://raiden.network/
https://medium.com/@brainbot/update-from-the-raiden-team-on-development-process-announcement-of-raidex-6c94b4edcf73#.2s8cxvfbe

Some chart analysis seems to indicate ETH is undergoing a pump for the following reasons and could reach $200. I've traded some BTC to ETH because:

1. Appears likely ETH will be first to ship some sort of beta for a Lightning Networks instant transactions clone. Although LN (and also Ethereum's Raiden) requires centralized hubs (for any reasonable usability and scaling) and thus aren't generalized instant txns (i.e. can't do what my OpenShare project will do), they will fool the n00bs and there will be a lot of hype value.

2. Numerous ETH smart contract Dapp ICOs underway, driving demand for ETH (at least until those ICO devs cash out to BTC but they will likely hold during the current ETH rocket shot because of #1).

3. Hedge against the current Bitcoin Unlimited fiasco, which is creating a confidence problem for Bitcoin near-term (might cause Bitcoin to waffle for a while?). I believe others will also want to hedge BTC and the above #1 and #2 adds reasoning to diversify into ETH.


I still don't think Ethereum can scale decentralized (Casper is technological junk), but it doesn't matter because the FOMO fever of greater fools will be intensified by the hype value. And I don't think Ethereum smart contract apps will attain any real world adoption, rather their only utility is as speculator gambling tokens. Nevertheless the FOMO hype contagion is going to very intense. So this appears to be the best altcoin to diversify into. ETH is following DASH's recent to-da-moon chart pattern. It is just time.

This doesn't change the viability of my project at all. My project comes in the next wave (later in 2017 hopefully).

Unlimited block size may not be a technological solution, but I think the end-game would be reasonably far off - at least a year or two.

And chaos in the meantime possibly enabling Ethereum to take the #1 position and run far ahead with the ecosystem network effects. Bitcoin potentially killed once it loses is #1 position.

I've already hedged by trading some BTC to ETH as I wrote today.

Thus I expect the market to kill BTU when the opportunity presents itself. Because the competition from Ethereum by this summer is going to be forcing the Bitcoin camps to strangle each other and have a winner. I am hedging because it appears that many n00bs (even so many proclaimed experts who comment in these threads suck as @franky1) are technologically ignorant enough to believe that unlimited block size is good.

It doesn't mean I like Core's attitude, politics (see my prior fights with @gmaxwell for example), and their bankster funding, but I am just being pragmatic about the fact that there is no fix for Satoshi's PoW, and at least LN provides some hype about moving forward towards instant transaction scaling (although it must be through centralized hubs to actually work and even then it has many flaws).

Personally I'd rather risk choosing the BU team since they can learn and add to the team, whereas core is so sclerotic that it would be game over immediately.

But look how incompetent BU is! They totally mucked up the game theory and math on unlimited blocks. Roger Ver has been spreading incorrect technological argumentation about 0-confirmation security.

So I don't want them in charge. They will surely destroy Bitcoin because they are young, inexperienced, and incompetent. And they don't have the level of technological peer review and IQ that the collective 170+ developers on Core have.

And worst of all, they think they are so righteous yet blind to how their proposals are objectively worse (or they are deviously hiding what their true aims are). Given that Roger Ver is apparently now involved with the fraud model of DASH, it makes me ponder there is more going on than the eye can see.


Here we go:

Time to dump all the coins, too much uncertainty about the future of bitcoin, hostile takeovers, splits, change in PoW, value is going down, time to take profits and wait for some stability.

Although this wall of worry is a buying opportunity, because there must be a winner. But there is the possibility that ETH is the winner. Thus I am now hedging because too many Bitcoiners (especially too many talking heads) follow incompetents such as Ver and Wu.

[iamnotback]

It is probably time to sell some BTC and move to an altcoin for the time being:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1819153.msg18284974#msg18284974

I would seriously consider making that hedging move asap.

[iamnotback]

Re: Alt shilling increase when Bitcoin is under attack

Not everything is a conspiracy. In case you haven't noticed, there has been a very broad-based rise in the entire altcoin market.

Yeah because the % of the total crypto marketcap in Bitcoin dropped precipitously from the 80s to the 60s.

Although it will bounce back somewhat if the Scalepocalypse crisis is ever resolved (and it won't be any time soon!), this poll will tell you (and even explain to you why if you bother to read it) that something has fundamentally changed.

You Bitcoin maximalists are going to become minority owners of the crypto and blockchain ecosystem. Lol.  

What this BU vs. Core fuckup did was cause many users which had never installed an altcoin wallet to do so.

BU opened the floodgates to altcoin dominance. Now once these guys get a taste of the freedom-of-choice and higher ROI from altcoins, they won't be coming back. They'll be converting more and more BTC to alts over time.

BU slayed Bitcoin. Or Core did. Depending who you want to blame for the Scalepocalypse.

Well I think Bitcoin will come back up and still $2000+ eventually, but the long-term outlook for Bitcoin has become less certain.

[iamnotback]

URGENT: buy LTC immediately!

[york780]

Litecoin chart :



Dont be a fool. THIS is just a pump&dump.

Thank me later.

[iamnotback]

Compare the volume!

Read my hypothesis of the fundamentals at the link I provided.

You all will think it is only a pump until you later realize you've missed a huge opportunity.

[york780]

Compare the volume!

Read at my fundamental logic at the link I provided.

Just a dead zombie coin trying to climb out of its grave.
Third luck charm? NAHHH

[iamnotback]

Compare the volume!

Read at my fundamental logic at the link I provided.

Just a dead zombie coin trying to climb out of its grave.
Third luck charm? NAHHH

50% of Bitcoin's volume. Litecoin has never seen any where near that level of volume before.

Remember the title of this thread I created:

Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

I think you are irrational. You haven't refuted my fundamental reasons. Not just the volume, but the SegWit activation economics and game theory reasons. Have you even read what I linked to?

[york780]

I have read the SegWit activation on Litecoin. Would be quite interesting how that plays out. But Its easy for a coin to rease 70% a day when it was only worth around 5 USD. In its glorydays it was worth 50 USD. Litecoin i dead for years. Its famous for hodlers who were/are desperately waiting to finally make some profit on this coin. Its way better to buy Bitcoin because Bitcoin has much MUCH more potential than this pump&dump coin. You and I both know that this is a forced whale pump, not sustainable event-based or adoption-based growth. SegWit alone wont push it up with 70% in one day. Whales do.

[iamnotback]

I have read the SegWit activation on Litecoin. Would be quite interesting how that plays out. But Its easy for a coin to rease 70% a day when it was only worth around 5 USD. In its glorydays it was worth 50 USD. Litecoin i dead for years. Its famous for hodlers who were/are desperately waiting to finally make some profit on this coin. Its way better to buy Bitcoin because Bitcoin has much MUCH more potential than this pump&dump coin. You and I both know that this is a forced whale pump, not sustainable event-based or adoption-based growth. SegWit alone wont push it up with 70% in one day. Whales do.

You don't get 50% of Bitcoin's volume without others realizing the potential and following the lead of the whales.

I have no idea why you think that accelerating scaling which Bitcoin can't do due to stalemate, isn't worth $billions if not $trillions.

In the past, LTC had no comparative advantage. Now it has a huge comparative advantage. Don't be late to board the train, because you are getting poorer as you delay realizing this new reality.