Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[trollercoaster]

I'm yet to read the thread, I disagree that it will crash the price, the opposite imo.
I feel more confident holding something that wasn't cooked up by one of the alphabet agencies.

[1713559707]

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[1713559707]

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[iamnotback]

I'm yet to read the thread, I disagree that it will crash the price, the opposite imo.
I feel more confident holding something that wasn't cooked up by one of the alphabet agencies.

It is amazing to me that they now have a great man to assign to the creator of Bitcoin, but they'd rather WHOREship an idol of mysticism (see the reaction I've been getting).

The human race hasn't graduated from being cows managed religion.

[iamnotback]

Well now the idiots can weep their butthurt.

My vindication always comes later. Such as when I warned about the centralization of mining in China last year and was told I was crying chicken little. Then I was correct and everyone admits it now.

I have a vindication coming soon on a recent altcoin analysis I made.  

Nash designed Bitcoin so that it would be replaced or competed with.

BW.com is considering the support for SegWit (~8% hashpower)
https://twitter.com/www_bw_com/status/850147251972329472

Chandler Gao (co-founder or investor of BW) tweets support of Segwit on Litecoin https://twitter.com/ChandlerGuo/status/850141884425027585

Prohashing (currently 1.4% of hash power) says they can get up to 6% redirected to Litecoin and signal SegWit with it.

Clever mining (1.2% of hash) is signalling segwit.

Litecoin will be coming to OpenBazzar soon.
https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/849828707065671680

Litecoin is being added to Coinbase.
https://status.coinbase.com/

[miscreanity]

More discussion over at this other thread. Many are saying this might crash the price of BTC. I never thought of it that way. Do you all think so?

A shame Nash and his wife are gone. How many know who John Nash is, or what his contributions were? Do we need to know who Lenoir and Otto were to make use of a car? The fact remains that the system is in operation and almost nobody will consider the creators while doing so. I agree that it will have negligible effect at best.

I've wondered whether Bitcoin is the the Biblical beast from the sea, having obscured origins and a wound. The beast from the land may be the scaling solution of an altcoin, created in plain view and founded upon Bitcoin's reserve platform to which its value defers. Some aspects are difficult to rectify and the descriptions depicted in the Bible do not directly equate to physical representations but metaphysical/spiritual ones.

[trollercoaster]

I'm yet to read the thread, I disagree that it will crash the price, the opposite imo.
I feel more confident holding something that wasn't cooked up by one of the alphabet agencies.

It is amazing to me that they now have a great man to assign to the creator of Bitcoin, but they'd rather WHOREship an idol of mysticism (see the reaction I've been getting).

The human race hasn't graduated from being cows managed religion.

It looks like you've unmasked the bitcoin santa claus and ruined christmas 

[iamnotback]

We will eventually get segwit in bitcoin with UASF. What part of this you don't understand?

The crab bucket mentality game theory insures you will not.

What part of game theory can't you understand.

P.S. On further reflection, I now see a more sinister interpretation of who was "Satoshi".

[iamnotback]

Litecoin hashrate dropped ~20%, which I think explains the drop in the SegWit signaling:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty

They were able to move the price up by 200+% and the hashrate is up less then 30%.

So they are building a base of miners are profitable at the higher price thus encouraging signaling SegWit. Presumably that 20% hashrate will be turned back on when necessary to push the activation over 75%.

It is quite probable the Chinamen are simply manipulating the market and delaying SegWit on Litecoin in order to maximize their ability to profit on price manipulation. They can also use these resources gained from manipulation to buy more hashrate to signal for SegWit.

It is too much obfuscated to figure out. Bottom line is Bitcoin won't get scaling. Litecoin is poised to get scaling.

[Kramerc]

Litecoin hashrate dropped ~20%, which I think explains the drop in the SegWit signaling:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty

They were able to move the price up by 200+% and the hashrate is up less then 30%.

So they are building a base of miners are profitable at the higher price thus encouraging signaling SegWit. Presumably that 20% hashrate will be turned back on when necessary to push the activation over 75%.

It is quite probable the Chinamen are simply manipulating the market and delaying SegWit on Litecoin in order to maximize their ability to profit on price manipulation. They can also use these resources gained from manipulation to buy more hashrate to signal for SegWit.

It is too much obfuscated to figure out. Bottom line is Bitcoin won't get scaling. Litecoin is poised to get scaling.

I usually check here https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools for each pool's hash rate and percentage. You are right, in the past few days total network hash rate went down quite a bit, but there's also something else that is interesting: antpool used to have a maximum 4% of the hash rate (somewhere below 100 GH/s), and now they've pushed to 8.8% (around 230 GH/s). Your theory is that they (Jihan and co) will not try to block segwit on LTC but their actions speak the opposite, at least until now. My take is that they are playing with fire and might get burned sooner than they expect.

I also considered your proposition that some of the chinese miners are purposely delaying signalling segwit in order to accumulate at lowest prices possible and thus maximize their profit in the forth coming pump. Actually, I don't see why they wouldn't do this.

[mikenz]

meanwhile in Bitcoin land..

BU Support weakens, SegWit stronger (34/30)

https://coin.dance/blocks

Bottom line is Bitcoin won't get scaling. Litecoin is poised to get scaling.

maybe, but I wouldnt bet my house on that.


SegWit approval on LTC is down to 62%. What a show. miners must laughing their asses of.

http://litecoinblockhalf.com/segwit.php

[iamnotback]

FYI, I sold some STEEM and bought more LTC on this dip.

I will continue to buy LTC with every thing I can find. I have 1 BTC in another account which I will probably transfer to Poloniex so I can buy more LTC.

The volume on LTC is building. LTC has far too high of volume lately to stay so undervalued. The pressure is building. Also, fiat is coming into LTC via Coinbase, so that in my mind is enough to push LTC's price up regardless of SegWit activation.

Litecoin is being added to Coinbase.
https://status.coinbase.com/

My thesis of both the rise of price outpacing hashrate rise due to constrained supply of ASICs, thus driving miners to increasingly signal SegWit, plus my thesis that "It Is Just Time" and that Bitcoin can't rise (willl remain range bound < $1200) until Litecoin catches up to $30+, seems to be holding as truth.The huge volume on LTC tells me LTC has become the #1 altcoin, the pressure is building for another upward explosion in price, and it extremely undervalued. LTC is starting to average more volume than ETC.

meanwhile in Bitcoin land..

BU Support weakens, SegWit stronger (34/30)

https://coin.dance/blocks

It is impossible for it to reach 95%.

Jihan Wu will never allow Blockstream to exist on Bitcoin. And I already explained he has checkmated Blockstream with his Bitmain covert asciiboost hardware spread out all over in the wild, which he can activate at will without even implicating himself nor Bitmain. Perhaps you missed my elucidation on that.

Bottom line is Bitcoin won't get scaling. Litecoin is poised to get scaling.

maybe, but I wouldnt bet my house on that.

I would, if I had a house. Seriously. I am selling everything I can find to buy more LTC.

SegWit approval on LTC is down to 62%. What a show. miners must laughing their asses of.

http://litecoinblockhalf.com/segwit.php

Within the "current activation period", it has been steady at 64-65% since my post which quoted.

Your theory is that they (Jihan and co) will not try to block segwit on LTC but their actions speak the opposite, at least until now. My take is that they are playing with fire and might get burned sooner than they expect.

I also considered your proposition that some of the chinese miners are purposely delaying signalling segwit in order to accumulate at lowest prices possible and thus maximize their profit in the forth coming pump. Actually, I don't see why they wouldn't do this.

Jihan Wu is playing along the game. I never said he wasn't blocking SegWit on Litecoin. But as I wrote, there is 20% of hashrate that was temporarily pulled so the signaling reduced from ~70% to ~62% but since has climbed back to ~64% because more and more other miners are switching to signal SegWit because they are starting to understand the price dip is due to signaling.

As the base of signaling builds back to 69 - 70% again, that 20% hashrate can return and push it over 75%. That might BTCC who is moving that 20% hashrate to and from Ethereum (their GPUs mining farm).

Since BW has stated it will soon signal for SegWit, perhaps some of that hashrate that Jihan had there has been moved to Antpool. Jihan may have been using proxies to hide or influence the decision of other pools. Any way, as I stated before that the hashrate game is too obfuscated for me to determine definitively, but the trend of LTC is now undeniable.

All roads to scaling lead to LTC.

Get on the train or be left behind.

[iamnotback]

I cannot think

Correct. You can't think.

Watch and learn.

Next time you'll read what I wrote.

I already debunked this nonsense thread of yours.

But all you said were copy and pasting all your theories and arguments of what you think. Those cannot be proven until it is done in practice. How is that debunking the question if Segwit is really necessary?

The point of the question is if it is necessary now with the current usage of LTC. It will be an improvement I am sure. But is it necessary from the point of view of a user?

You first have to ask yourself, how is it being used now? Why do we need Segwit now to open the roads to a Lightning Network?

Litecoin has one and only one chance to ever get SegWit activated now while LTC is extremely undervalued (because this means miners can form a 75% consensus on rising the price, which won't be otherwise be possible due to the crab bucket game theory that John Nash designed into Satoshi's PoW). That window of opportunity will close and due the crab bucket mentality that Satoshi designed into PoW and never be possible again in the future.

Without off chain LN, there is no other way to scale Satoshi's PoW. I've refuted all the other technological BS such as larger blocks and Xthin.

Bitcoin will NEVER get scaling.

Litecoin MUST get scaling NOW. And it will. And it will receive all the transaction rate scaling that Bitcoin will NEVER be able to do.

Please don't make me explain this again.

[iamnotback]

Re: Snapchat first investor thinks bitcoin could realistically be worth $500,000

According to Jeremy Liew, the first investor in Snapchat, and Blockchain CEO and cofounder Peter Smith. In a presentation sent to Business Insider, the duo laid out their case for why it's reasonable for bitcoin to explode to $500,000 by 2030.

A very interesting article at Business Insider that worth reading: http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-could-be-500000-by-2030-first-snapchat-investor-says-2017-3

I originally thought BTC might top out below $50k.

But now that I understand that BTC will be exclusively only the settlement layer for the mass scaling which will take place in altcoins, I now think his analysis may be correct.

All the power broker settlement will likely to be on the Bitcoin blockchain which will be the bulk of the fungible capital generated by the masses on the altcoins as dictated by the power-law (Zipf's law) distribution of wealth. Thus Bitcoin is the reserve currency of all the altcoins.

This is why one must stay invested in this sector. Note I do think the altcoins that scale up the masses will see faster appreciation than BTC in spurts, so that is one of way of increasing one's BTC if you are expert at speculation. Otherwise buy and hodl BTC.

[iamnotback]

The volume on LTC is building. LTC has far too high of volume lately to stay so undervalued. The pressure is building. Also, fiat is coming into LTC via Coinbase, so that in my mind is enough to push LTC's price up regardless of SegWit activation.

The volume is indeed insanely high.
...
I can't see LTC not going up again  

when price is changing volume goes up too, it doesn't matter if it is changing for the better or for worse (down or up) and it only shows people who are making trades to take advantage of the changing price in short term aka day trading. and you can't say it is positive. and in this case the high volume shows a massive dump in the past 24 hours.

what is positive and shows good signs is when price is stable or with little change but the volume is high which shows accumulation with smart money coming in without anybody noticing.

i am not saying litecoin can not go up again, i am saying your conclusion is wrong.

The volume is extremely high but it is not a panic waterfall collapse. That to me is very bullish. It indicates to me the smart money is trying enter at the lowest price they can before the next blast off.

Nearly all the altcoins are down because the market is confused and thinks that Blockstream has defeated Jihan Wu's BU, but I expect BTC is topping out at $1200 (range bound as I predicted many days ago) once the market realizes that this BS about SegWit signaling on Bitcoin gaining momentum is nonsense. Bitcoin will never get scaling. The market will digest this, Bitcoin will stumble and Litecoin will rocket up.

The market is stupid because Bitcoin will actually benefit from scaling on Litecoin, but the market has to go through its gyrations. In any case, my thesis is Bitcoin remains range bound until Litecoin catches up, because the chart says "It Is Just Time" and because Bitcoin can't move up until there will be scaling in the Satoshi's PoW ecosystem. Litecoin will get it, Bitcoin won't, but that it is a good thing for Bitcoin. Market doesn't realize any of this yet, but the smart money does.

[iamnotback]

Channels are important and to me the market says this is not an issue. The thick blue line in the LTCBTC chart is the long-term downtrend from the 2013-2015 highs. This run should go to 0.015 at a minimum. I also consider this to be a stair-step advance where the decline is not enough to allow solid entry points, but sufficient to force weak holders into panic selling.

Additionally, markets like to fill the gaps seen on the downward move in the LTCBTC chart, so we should come back up to at least close those.

We have until April 10th for the long-term downtrend and the bottom of the current channel to force a direction. There is likely to be a decisive move over the weekend, which I expect to be positive.

I would sell some if 0.00855-0.00865 is broken, and most if 0.00775 is breached.

We are still within the channel!

[Miz4r]

when price is changing volume goes up too, it doesn't matter if it is changing for the better or for worse (down or up) and it only shows people who are making trades to take advantage of the changing price in short term aka day trading. and you can't say it is positive. and in this case the high volume shows a massive dump in the past 24 hours.

what is positive and shows good signs is when price is stable or with little change but the volume is high which shows accumulation with smart money coming in without anybody noticing.

i am not saying litecoin can not go up again, i am saying your conclusion is wrong.

The volume is extremely high but it is not a panic waterfall collapse. That to me is very bullish. It indicates to me the smart money is trying enter at the lowest price they can before the next blast off.

Nearly all the altcoins are down because the market is confused and thinks that Blockstream has defeated Jilian Wu's BU, but I expect BTC is topping out at $1200 (range bound as I predicted many days ago) once the market realizes that this BS about SegWit signaling on Bitcoin gaining momentum is nonsense. Bitcoin will never get scaling. The market will digest this, Bitcoin will stumble and Litecoin will rocket up.

The market is stupid because Bitcoin will actually benefit from scaling on Litecoin, but the market has to go through its gyrations. In any case, my thesis is Bitcoin remains range bound until Litecoin catches up, because the charge says "It Is Just Time" and because Bitcoin can't move up until there will be scaling in the Satoshi's PoW ecosystem. Litecoin will get it, Bitcoin won't, but that it is a good thing for Bitcoin. Market doesn't realize any of this yet, but the smart money does.

No offense but you sound delusional mate. Jihan Wu is desperately trying to stop Litecoin from adopting SegWit because he knows that if Litecoin can do it so can Bitcoin and that would be bad for his asicboost advantage. It is pretty obvious now what's going on if you've been paying attention and use common sense analysis. Litecoin will get scaling and so will Bitcoin, the cards have been dealt and we just need to play this hand out. Get some more sleep and wake up to the reality of what's going on. Litecoin will rise in price again as soon as it looks like UASF is gaining traction, then Bitcoin will go up once Litecoin has shown it the way forward.

[mikenz]

Thats what I think is currently most likely. Once LTC shows SegWit advantages in terms of price rise, miners will finaly realize the price rise of 2k or 3k Bitcoins due to ever increasing adoption will easily outprofit their losses due to lower transaction fees. In the end they will make more money this way and thus it will make no sense economically for them not to agree to SegWit adoption.

Bitcoin will never get scaling. The market will digest this, Bitcoin will stumble and Litecoin will rocket up.

I find your argument very interesting and will definitely keep an eye on LTC. However my 3+ years experience tells me that whenever BTC goes up 1%, Alts losing like 10% or more. Moreover, i dont see BTC rangebound yet. Sure, without SegWit it will be an issue in the future, say within a year or two with price at double or triple rates and triple adoption and no SegWit. But for now, transaction fees are still affordable and the long term trend & adoption has more than enough traction to go to 2k, 3k or even 5k before the scaling issue becomes so pressing that it will stop price from rising.

However I will definitely keep an eye on your argumentation too. But keep in mind, just as you said, LTC has no reason to exist apart from SegWit. If Bitcoin becomes Segwit, LTC is the useless and outdated Nr.2 that it was before.


btw: 0.0075, LTC is not in your channel anymore. I think the chances for a rise would be good - but only as long as BTC stays really flat or drops AND the SegWit adoption rate is rising. Already 2 IFs.

[coinling]

The volume on LTC is building. LTC has far too high of volume lately to stay so undervalued. The pressure is building. Also, fiat is coming into LTC via Coinbase, so that in my mind is enough to push LTC's price up regardless of SegWit activation.

The volume is indeed insanely high.
...
I can't see LTC not going up again  

when price is changing volume goes up too, it doesn't matter if it is changing for the better or for worse (down or up) and it only shows people who are making trades to take advantage of the changing price in short term aka day trading. and you can't say it is positive. and in this case the high volume shows a massive dump in the past 24 hours.

what is positive and shows good signs is when price is stable or with little change but the volume is high which shows accumulation with smart money coming in without anybody noticing.

i am not saying litecoin can not go up again, i am saying your conclusion is wrong.

The volume is extremely high but it is not a panic waterfall collapse. That to me is very bullish. It indicates to me the smart money is trying enter at the lowest price they can before the next blast off.

Nearly all the altcoins are down because the market is confused and thinks that Blockstream has defeated Jihan Wu's BU, but I expect BTC is topping out at $1200 (range bound as I predicted many days ago) once the market realizes that this BS about SegWit signaling on Bitcoin gaining momentum is nonsense. Bitcoin will never get scaling. The market will digest this, Bitcoin will stumble and Litecoin will rocket up.

The market is stupid because Bitcoin will actually benefit from scaling on Litecoin, but the market has to go through its gyrations. In any case, my thesis is Bitcoin remains range bound until Litecoin catches up, because the charge says "It Is Just Time" and because Bitcoin can't move up until there will be scaling in the Satoshi's PoW ecosystem. Litecoin will get it, Bitcoin won't, but that it is a good thing for Bitcoin. Market doesn't realize any of this yet, but the smart money does.

Why do you think bitcoin can't move up without scaling ?
Besides, i think there will definitely be solutions for bitcoin scaling out in future. Bitcoin will move slowly in this direction and it should take care of its trusted secure network, that's why they can't take fast roads like other coins right now.

What do you mean by that is a good thing for Bitcoin ?
Will bitcoin just switch to Segwit once they see how it runs on litecoin , or will Bitcoin be scalable by using Litecoin as interaction?!?

[XbladeX]

***
Why do you think bitcoin can't move up without scaling ?
***

becouse almost every speculator pump was becouse of something expanding adaptation.
Google use BTC news / silkroad news / bla bla speculators jump on BTC ship seeing BTC as mass adopted stuff.
If you want see massive surge in price u need provide that or... bank crisis and stolen money from banks(Cyprus) .

I have teory that when BTC miners will get less money than BTC miners now that is about 77%. Then they will rethink why they fail so hard and to cath ETH lighting and such stuf they will need segwit. If not people will value more ETH, use more ETH than BTC.
If they will be stubborn more BTC will fade away like any outdated software win3.11, kaza, AOL,Duke3D...
People will have sentiment but nothing more ...
They have to feel $$$ in inovation not fees thanks to LTC or ETH(most likely) they will feel fear of deafeat IMO.
Even Jihad will be pissed off that BTC minning is no loger such fun as before .
If bitmain will jump ETH then Vitalik will show him middle finger with POS and even more people will hoop ETH trane becouse they hate Jihad
for what he have done to BTC ^^.

[thejaytiesto]

We need to look at potential 100 to 1000'ers.

How about PIVX? looks like its going to hit 1 USD finally. Once it hits 1, then why not 5, or 10?

It's a DASH clone, without instamine and so on. Now it just needs to hire some pretty girl to shill on youtube. Looks like it's cheap enough to profit from a big bubble that I think will eventually happen.
Also its not even polo yet.

What the hell else is there? we need to look at coins that are under the radar with some potential for a good ol pump, ideally flat coins or at least under 1 USD relative to total supply. I know PIVX is at the end of the another joke, im just trying to guess a good pump. This one seems like a decent gamble. If it hits 2 USD that's already good profits.
Of course the problem of massive whales in this coin and constant risk to megadump is there, but whales are greedy, they will enjoy seeing the price go higher.

[iamnotback]

Guys (@iamnotback, @dinofelis),

What are your thoughts on the increased talk of UASF for Litecoin? https://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/

UASF is very dangerous and subject to manipulation.

How do you know who will sell which fork for sure?

You've got one chance to get SegWit on Litecoin, which is because it is in the miners' vested interest and otherwise Litecoin has no reason to exist. Scaling has to go somewhere since Bitcoin will never get it.

Is Jihad just firing up more hashpower as a response to make a quick buck on recent LTC prices increases? Seems to me he's responding in that way, but if he fails to signal for SegWit, then price will drop and hence his profits once again. Longer term doesn't it make sense for him to support SegWit to see a sustained and/or increasing LTC price?

Jihan Wu (Bitmain) wanted to remove Blockstream's ability to muck up Bitcoin. He was protecting his investment by designing a poison pill with covert AsicBoost which he'll use to defeat any SegWit or covert AsicBlocking fork.

But he has every incentive to want to see higher prices on Litecoin for as long as it doesn't dilute his profits on Bitcoin mining.

I think he is stalling the SegWit activation on Litecoin for two reasons:

1. To wait until transaction fees are so high on Bitcoin that users start leaving for alts. Then he isn't losing any demand from Bitcoin that goes to Litecoin.

2. To accumulate as many LTC at low prices as he can via mining given that the ASIC supply is constrained, before he allows the price of LTC to rise to $50+.

So I think he will try to drag this out as long as he can, except if I am correct that Bitcoin's price will remain rangebound $800 - $1200 until LTC catches up on its adoption price curve, then he might see he is losing more revenue on Bitcoin by blocking SegWit on Litecoin.

I think perhaps he is just trying to manage the rise on LTC to maximize his LTC share, since price has risen so much faster than hashrate. He knows if prices too much then his competition (Innosilicon) can gain more cash flow to expand production. So I think he is playing this strategically for maximizing his marketshare.

I think UASF is unnecessary and sounds a bit like BU in the sense that it's just sort of a hasteful bullying, just that the little guy feels empowered and morally justified because it's a response to the big, bad miners.

...

I can't quite put it into words, but you can probably get what I'm saying.

I think it makes the value of the coin collapse forever, because investors can't trust a democracy to make sane decisions.

Litecoin needs to become immutable, but it needs to add SegWit for off chain scaling before the marketcap grows and becomes immutable forever after.