Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

[iamnotback]

I had bet for Clinton to win, not that I supported her or believed she would gain the majority of votes, but just because establishment wants their martial law and can rig the election to ensure it. This is truly an interesting time to make happen.  

If you had been reading me for past weeks, then you would have known it was 75% sure that Trump would win.

Risto perhaps move to the USA? Get out of that dying clusterfuck morass of Europe[1]! Perhaps consider one of the conservative States which Trump won by a wide margin, such as Texas.

in other news, Armstrongs thesis on change in US elections spot on. Was first person I read saying an outsider will win.

I can confirm from reading his blog, that his computer predicted BREXIT and Republican victory months before the votes (and he claims his computer made these predictions many years before). I am really tired of this bullshit that says Armstrong's computer isn't legitimately able to predict the future. Armstrong says it is has never been wrong on a USA presidential election except for Gore (who actually won and the election was stolen with rigging in Florida which was later proven to be true).

As I predicted Trump has won due to turnout advantage, and I can make this determination early (as of now) because (with his 244 confirmed electoral votes as of time of writing) he leads in PA and the remaining 3% of the votes to be counted in PA are all in counties where he is getting 2/3 of the vote (or in Bucks county where Clinton doesn't get a significant majority).

The Dems only got CO because they allowed 60,000 felons to vote.



[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1661631.0 <--- Europe loves crooked Clinton!
   https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1639006.msg16800545#msg16800545    <--- Liberal Europe is being aligned with Liberal USA

in other news, Armstrongs thesis on change in US elections spot on. Was first person I read saying an outsider will win.

I can confirm from reading his blog, that his computer predicted BREXIT and Republican victory months before the votes (and he claims his computer made these predictions many years before). I am really tired of this bullshit that says Armstrong's computer isn't legitimately able to predict the future. Armstrong says it is has never been wrong on a USA presidential election except for Gore (who actually won and the election was stolen with rigging in Florida which was later proven to be true).

As I predicted Trump has won due to turnout advantage, and I can make this determination early (as of now) because (with his 244 confirmed electoral votes as of time of writing) he leads in PA and the remaining 3% of the votes to be counted in PA are all in counties where he is getting 2/3 of the vote (or in Bucks county where Clinton doesn't get a significant majority).

The Dems only got CO because they allowed 60,000 felons to vote.

[sandiman]

P.S. I think it will probably come back down and touch at least $650. The reaction buying is probably a bit steep right now to sustain.

There might be a head&shoulder pattern forming which will take the price down to fill that gap up (Oct 22-23) from just below $650 before we complete this correction.This is not a certainty.

That potential H&S was just violated with the move to $716. Time to board the train next stop $789ish.

lol

Note the bolded parts. Speculation is not about closing your eyes and covering your ears.

I was lolling the bolded part, can't see any uncertainty there

keep shilling amstrong 

[iamnotback]

P.S. I think it will probably come back down and touch at least $650. The reaction buying is probably a bit steep right now to sustain.

There might be a head&shoulder pattern forming which will take the price down to fill that gap up (Oct 22-23) from just below $650 before we complete this correction.This is not a certainty.

That potential H&S was just violated with the move to $716. Time to board the train next stop $789ish.

lol

Note the bolded parts. Speculation is not about closing your eyes and covering your ears.

I was lolling the bolded part, can't see any uncertainty there

keep shilling amstrong 

Quoted for upcoming facepalm.

[darlidada]

The irrationally pessimistic part of me is thinking that may be a triple top. US exchanges doesnt seem to want to follow china

[sandiman]

bags were loaded this week 

[iamnotback]

The correction from $750 due to the fake China scare appears to be a flag pattern. So I am now thinking we may blast right through that cup handle ~$788 and head towards $900.

The (probably complicit) Bitfinex hack and China fake news are probably the Chinaman loading up his wagon with more cheap BTC from shorting. Now time to let it run (up) before the next shorting smash up manipulation.

[Fakhoury]

The correction from $750 due to the fake China scare appears to be a flag pattern. So I am now thinking we may blast right through that cup handle ~$788 and head towards $900.

The (probably complicit) Bitfinex hack and China fake news are probably the Chinaman loading up his wagon with more cheap BTC from shorting. Now time to let it run (up) before the next shorting smash up manipulation.

All the way to test the ATH before 2017 ?

[iamnotback]

The correction from $750 due to the fake China scare appears to be a flag pattern. So I am now thinking we may blast right through that cup handle ~$788 and head towards $900.

The (probably complicit) Bitfinex hack and China fake news are probably the Chinaman loading up his wagon with more cheap BTC from shorting. Now time to let it run (up) before the next shorting smash up manipulation.

All the way to test the ATH before 2017 ?

I doubt we'll get that much acceleration, but let's see what happens.

My intuition would lean rather to a pullback before ATH and a breather before reaching an ATH in 2017. But let's see how my reading of the tea leaves changes between now and then.

Let me add that we need to get past $750 first. That isn't certain yet, although looks likely.

[jondeen707]

The correction from $750 due to the fake China scare appears to be a flag pattern. So I am now thinking we may blast right through that cup handle ~$788 and head towards $900.

The (probably complicit) Bitfinex hack and China fake news are probably the Chinaman loading up his wagon with more cheap BTC from shorting. Now time to let it run (up) before the next shorting smash up manipulation.

All the way to test the ATH before 2017 ?

I doubt we'll get that much acceleration, but let's see what happens.

My intuition would lean rather to a pullback before ATH and a breather before reaching an ATH in 2017. But let's see how my reading of the tea leaves changes between now and then.

Let me add that we need to get past $750 first. That isn't certain yet, although looks likely.

Hopefully we'll get past that mark this time

[Fakhoury]

The correction from $750 due to the fake China scare appears to be a flag pattern. So I am now thinking we may blast right through that cup handle ~$788 and head towards $900.

The (probably complicit) Bitfinex hack and China fake news are probably the Chinaman loading up his wagon with more cheap BTC from shorting. Now time to let it run (up) before the next shorting smash up manipulation.

All the way to test the ATH before 2017 ?

I doubt we'll get that much acceleration, but let's see what happens.

My intuition would lean rather to a pullback before ATH and a breather before reaching an ATH in 2017. But let's see how my reading of the tea leaves changes between now and then.

Let me add that we need to get past $750 first. That isn't certain yet, although looks likely.

What if I told you we are nearly $5 away from $750 according to finex 

Could we see $1K at least if not the ATH ?

[iamnotback]

What if I told you we are nearly $5 away from $750 according to finex  

Could we see $1K at least if not the ATH ?

That chart looks to me like the next stop could plausibly be the handle on that huge U bottom cup from the 2013 ATH. And acceleration at the right side of the cup is plausible.

But plausible is not the same as probable.

[Gahs]

I doubt we'll get that much acceleration, but let's see what happens.

My intuition would lean rather to a pullback before ATH and a breather before reaching an ATH in 2017. But let's see how my reading of the tea leaves changes between now and then.

Let me add that we need to get past $750 first. That isn't certain yet, although looks likely.

We've reached $751 today. I think it is possible to reach $800 by Christmas.

[darlidada]

I doubt we'll get that much acceleration, but let's see what happens.

My intuition would lean rather to a pullback before ATH and a breather before reaching an ATH in 2017. But let's see how my reading of the tea leaves changes between now and then.

Let me add that we need to get past $750 first. That isn't certain yet, although looks likely.

We've reached $751 today. I think it is possible to reach $800 by Christmas.

763,85 next stop should be 789 (last bfx high) then moon

also imnotback: if we reach ATH there would be another cup and handle forming so we could go super high again afterwards no?

[RAJSALLIN]

Iamnotback, what is your take on what exchange to follow. Chinese exchanges have broken out of the C&H formation but western exchanges (in USD) haven't yet it seems. Do you think we should just follow the price in CNY since they might be the ones actually driving the adoption atm?

[iamnotback]

Iamnotback, what is your take on what exchange to follow. Chinese exchanges have broken out of the C&H formation but western exchanges (in USD) haven't yet it seems. Do you think we should just follow the price in CNY since they might be the ones actually driving the adoption atm?

Ask rpietila, since he is smarter than me about analyzing arbitrage and implications.

[Catmony]

All the way to test the ATH before 2017 ?

I really doubt that price can test new ATH before 2017 may be by end or in mid of 2017 price will be $1000+ or even may get new ATH price.

[iamnotback]

All the way to test the ATH before 2017 ?

I really doubt that price can test new ATH before 2017 may be by end or in mid of 2017 price will be $1000+ or even may get new ATH price.

I tend to agree. Yet we might get some acceleration to well above $800 and then a pull back before ATHs to keep us on that slower trajectory.

Note we still haven't broken out above $750 yet on all exchanges.

One thing to keep in mind is that as mining is becoming more and more centralized/monopolized, then profits for miners are increasing (if for one reason because less marginal miners) thus have less need to sell (and they can't sell all, just the small portion to pay costs!). So it is in their interest to grow the perceived "wealth effect" exchange value of the economy, so they can extract more profits from mining.

Also they have more and more power to manipulate the price at will to profit on repeated bouts of shorting slamdowns.

Ultimately this centralization is going to kill Bitcoin, but for now it represents a stability of trend until that point that it is unsustainable.

I wildly speculate a chance that Bitcoin dies or is restructured by TPTB in the 2018 or so monetary reset (exact ETA is not precisely knowable), because if the elite shut down the financial system for many months, then miners can't exchange to fiat to pay their electricity bills. TPTB then have them by the proverbial balls.

[Fakhoury]

All the way to test the ATH before 2017 ?

I really doubt that price can test new ATH before 2017 may be by end or in mid of 2017 price will be $1000+ or even may get new ATH price.

I tend to agree. Yet we might get some acceleration to well above $800 and then a pull back before ATHs to keep us on that slower trajectory.

Note we still haven't broken out above $750 yet on all exchanges.

One thing to keep in mind is that as mining is becoming more and more centralized/monopolized, then profits for miners are increasing (if for one reason because less marginal miners) thus have less need to sell (and they can't sell all, just the small portion to pay costs!). So it is in their interest to grow the perceived "wealth effect" exchange value of the economy, so they can extract more profits from mining.

Also they have more and more power to manipulate the price at will to profit on repeated bouts of shorting slamdowns.

Ultimately this centralization is going to kill Bitcoin, but for now it represents a stability of trend until that point that it is unsustainable.

I wildly speculate a chance that Bitcoin dies or is restructured by TPTB in the 2018 or so monetary reset (exact ETA is not precisely knowable), because if the elite shut down the financial system for many months, then miners can't exchange to fiat to pay their electricity bills. TPTB then have them by the proverbial balls.

Is Bitcoin doomed then by 2018 or so ?

[iamnotback]

Is Bitcoin doomed then by 2018 or so ?

Wild speculation is differentiated from certainly doomed.

For example, I could speculate a wild theory that the plan of the global elite is to capture Bitcoin and integrate it with their monetary reset, and ordaining it as an international system for exchanging value.

Also we can't be sure of the timing or even if there will actually be a shutdown of the current monetary system while transitioning to a new one.

And we aren't omniscient about what technologies might be adapted to Bitcoin.

Also we don't know what replacement altcoins might or might not scale up and provide an offramp before hand.

There is a lot of wild conjecture involved in all those factors.

[Fakhoury]

Is Bitcoin doomed then by 2018 or so ?

Wild speculation is differentiated from certainly doomed.

For example, I could speculate a wild theory that the plan of the global elite is to capture Bitcoin and integrate it with their monetary reset, and ordaining it as an international system for exchanging value.

Also we can't be sure of the timing or even if there will actually be a shutdown of the current monetary system while transitioning to a new one.

And we aren't omniscient about what technologies might be adapted to Bitcoin.

Also we don't know what replacement altcoins might or might not scale up and provide an offramp before hand.

There is a lot of wild conjecture involved in all those factors.

Well said.

But for iamnotback, where does he sees Bitcoin in the long term (10 - 15 years), for price and technology ?