Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rocks]

goxBTC-only holders now face a very difficult choice: replace goxxed btc with fresh purchases before the price goes to Mars, or focus on alts or give up on crypto completely.

That has been exactly my thinking.

The Gox BTC disappeared into the market a long time ago and they were operating in a fractional fashion.

This means that the perceived money supply was larger than it actually was. People thought they owned coins they didn't in fact own and someone else was using. Now that the truth has come out the perceived money supply has been reduced by ~6%. MtGox people can either purchase the BTC that they wanted or exit. Exiting has already been priced in, but purchasing more drives the price up.

I'm inclined to think this could go higher in weeks/months. It takes time for people to accept the loss. Many and still in a denial phase shocked that their $10K or even $100K nest egg is gone, and think courts or something will get it back. As the realization and acceptance sets in, then new decisions have to be made given their new situation (which is BTC broke)

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[CoinDox]

goxBTC-only holders now face a very difficult choice: replace goxxed btc with fresh purchases before the price goes to Mars, or focus on alts or give up on crypto completely.

That has been exactly my thinking.

The Gox BTC disappeared into the market a long time ago and they were operating in a fractional fashion.

This means that the perceived money supply was larger than it actually was. People thought they owned coins they didn't in fact own and someone else was using. Now that the truth has come out the perceived money supply has been reduced by ~6%. MtGox people can either purchase the BTC that they wanted or exit. Exiting has already been priced in, but purchasing more drives the price up.

I'm inclined to think this could go higher soonish.

So the average actors logic is this according to that line of thought: Oh man, I lost 15K worth of BTC. That was what I was willing to loose, it was only 1-2% of my total worth. Well, looks like I lost it. Now I need to spend 30K to buy the same amount of coins back (assuming they did not buy their coins at peak price).

If they do decide to buy-back in, (fear of missing the pump train), then they certainly would not try to recover all of their coins back. More logically, the thinking would go something like this.

Oh man, I lost 15K worth of BTC. That was what I was willing to loose, it was only 1-2% of my total worth. I want to enter into the market, but I am cautious, I don't want to get hurt again. This time, I will only put in maybe 5k and see how it goes.

So yes there might be some extra buyers, but not enough to continue a drive upwards long-term. Please note that this comment does not reflect my prediction for the price, as I still see there is more manipulation upward to be had. This is just a take on investigating your logic.

[JorgeStolfi]

Does anyone have an idea of how many active traders (by some definition of "active") there are in each exchange?

Huobi's CEO claimed 10,000, so my guess is less than 5,000 for Huobi and OKCoin, less than 1000 each for Bitstamp, BTC-e, and Bitfinex.

Too low?

[theonewhowaskazu]

Huobi's CEO claimed 10,000, so my guess is less than 5,000

lol

[Richy_T]

So the average actors logic is this according to that line of thought: Oh man, I lost 15K worth of BTC. That was what I was willing to loose, it was only 1-2% of my total worth. Well, looks like I lost it. Now I need to spend 30K to buy the same amount of coins back (assuming they did not buy their coins at peak price).

If they do decide to buy-back in, (fear of missing the pump train), then they certainly would not try to recover all of their coins back. More logically, the thinking would go something like this.

Oh man, I lost 15K worth of BTC. That was what I was willing to loose, it was only 1-2% of my total worth. I want to enter into the market, but I am cautious, I don't want to get hurt again. This time, I will only put in maybe 5k and see how it goes.

So yes there might be some extra buyers, but not enough to continue a drive upwards long-term. Please note that this comment does not reflect my prediction for the price, as I still see there is more manipulation upward to be had. This is just a take on investigating your logic.

There are no "average actors", people do not act as a homogenous whole. It is not a case of "will people do X or Y" but how many will do each.

I this case, peoples Bitcoins have been taken. They can't sell them and make the price go down. It only takes a fraction buying back to help things move up.

The only way it could affect the price negatively would be to discourage people from holding bitcoins and doubtless those who were not involved in the Gox debacle are thinking "it won't happen to me" as much as those who had funds on Gox were before the event.

CCMF

[theonewhowaskazu]

NO TRAINS for an entire page? ACTUAL CHARTS? Whats going on here???

[CoinDox]

So the average actors logic is this according to that line of thought: Oh man, I lost 15K worth of BTC. That was what I was willing to loose, it was only 1-2% of my total worth. Well, looks like I lost it. Now I need to spend 30K to buy the same amount of coins back (assuming they did not buy their coins at peak price).

If they do decide to buy-back in, (fear of missing the pump train), then they certainly would not try to recover all of their coins back. More logically, the thinking would go something like this.

Oh man, I lost 15K worth of BTC. That was what I was willing to loose, it was only 1-2% of my total worth. I want to enter into the market, but I am cautious, I don't want to get hurt again. This time, I will only put in maybe 5k and see how it goes.

So yes there might be some extra buyers, but not enough to continue a drive upwards long-term. Please note that this comment does not reflect my prediction for the price, as I still see there is more manipulation upward to be had. This is just a take on investigating your logic.

There are no "average actors", people do not act as a homogenous whole. It is not a case of "will people do X or Y" but how many will do each.

I this case, peoples Bitcoins have been taken. They can't sell them and make the price go down. It only takes a fraction buying back to help things move up.

The only way it could affect the price negatively would be to discourage people from holding bitcoins and doubtless those who were not involved in the Gox debacle are thinking "it won't happen to me" as much as those who had funds on Gox were before the event.

CCMF

Agreed, there is no homogenous whole. Yet, my point/guess is that the group who will try to recover all their lost BTC is greatly outnumbered by those who will buy back in for less, or just not buy back in at all. Despite my bearish tone, I never suggested that this would be a catalyst for down-ward moment, just lack of upwards momentum.

[JayJuanGee]

Why did hackers stole 750.000 Bitcoins only from MTgox and did not touch any other exchanges?

What is Karpeles doing at the moment? Can he get out of Japan or is he "arrested" to Japan?

Does somebody know this?

I´m still sure Karpeles stole that coins and say hackers did that. Can he go to jail for the insolvency? or is it really so easy to open up an exchange, let people invest millions and then shut it down? I mean, easy way to get rich!?

They stole bitcoin to buy more dogecoin.

Karp is swimming in dogecoins. We all know this.

Yes, it is easy to build an exchange and steal from customers. I can build you an exchange for the low price of 10,000btc. I know that sounds like a lot, but think about how much you will make over time. Srsly

Never watched the dogecoin charts and I´m not sure if you are serious about this or not!?

I and a lot of people have coins on stamp too and I´m worried that stamp could do the same as gox some day. Even though they are at a leading position at the moment.

You guys seriously think another exchange could have the same problems as Gox? It's coming out now that it was well known Mark was neglecting the code. He had plenty of warnings from people who know what they are talking about. Also, Gox has been sending out a warning beacon since November when fiat withdrawals problems were getting out of control, you will see the same signs with another exchange too. Learn from your mistakes, don't wish the same misfortune on other people.

The most plausible stories about what happened includes MK knowingly trying to drag this thing out since about 2011.. hoping that he would earn back coins that he had lost in 2011 (nearly 1 million coins). 

Accordingly, by the time late 2013 came, MK was utilizing bots and self-dealing with investor coins and well manipulating the whole situation in order to attempt to recover lost coins from 2011.. that he was NEVER able to make up.

OMG..yep very unluckily the poor guy even couldn´t make his pockets whole by halting withdrawls and accepting millions of deposits cause the bug would be  fixed in no time....

even  TBF  said so while selling and the dollars went off-shore!  DUDE your plausabilities suck big time

Yes, I provided a rendition of what seems plausible at the moment.  What's your rendition, and why would your rendition be more plausible.. do you have some better facts?  or better inferences ... surely over time, a story is going to develop, which may or may NOT be the whole truth about what actually happened..

[KeyserSoze]

Here we go?

Most people make the Joker reference here but I prefer Mike Goldberg, UFC announcer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4sdZN7blfE

Meh, it might be a little obscure but I'm tempted to go with Will Smith.

DJ Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince or some other as solo?

[KeyserSoze]

No idea. Perhaps someone out there does know something

 https://twitter.com/niccary/status/440598582551674880

soo.. was today an..
...insider trading?!    

Which retarded bear here is Nikolay Kolev? That fucker is on every Bitcoin blog on the internet talking down Bitcoin. It must be a group of people. No singular retard could cover that much ground and have that many horrible conversations by himself.

[tailor]

There are no "average actors", people do not act as a homogenous whole. It is not a case of "will people do X or Y" but how many will do each.

Average isn't a homogenous group, it's representative of the net effect of what all do.

[JayJuanGee]

This rally will have some legs imo. 800k bitcoins need to be replaced.....

Your assertion does NOT make a lot of sense.

Possibly, a portion of those 800k coins have already been absorbed in the market.   And, do you really believe that the various holders of 800k of Bitcoins (who got burnt) are going to replace those coins?  Maybe 25% of them will, maybe.... but when would that happen?  in the next few weeks?

I´m all in BTC, lets go down now like always :|

I'm about 95% in bitcoin... I had been hoping for another downswing... which does NOT seem too likely.. maybe we might get down as low as $650?  Maybe?  Seeming less and less likely, though.

[KeyserSoze]

So, is there a consensus about what caused todays sudden price increase

The world is in love with Bitcoin and most realize it is a great value?

[keithers]

This rally will have some legs imo. 800k bitcoins need to be replaced.....

Your assertion does NOT make a lot of sense.

Possibly, a portion of those 800k coins have already been absorbed in the market.   And, do you really believe that the various holders of 800k of Bitcoins (who got burnt) are going to replace those coins?  Maybe 25% of them will, maybe.... but when would that happen?  in the next few weeks?

I´m all in BTC, lets go down now like always :|

I'm about 95% in bitcoin... I had been hoping for another downswing... which does NOT seem too likely.. maybe we might get down as low as $650?  Maybe?  Seeming less and less likely, though.

I can say with almost certainty that we will see $650 again, as we are not even very far above that level now.    I am bullish long term on bitcoin for sure, but we definitely have a lot of ups and downs still ahead of us.   There will definitely still be some flash crashes in our future (even if they last only a few minutes/hours)....

We would see $650 if someone dumped off about 1500btc right now...

[JorgeStolfi]

So, is there a consensus about what caused todays sudden price increase

The world is in love with Bitcoin and most realize it is a great value?

All of a sudden, like that? 

A new perfume perhaps?

[tailor]

This rally will have some legs imo. 800k bitcoins need to be replaced.....

Your assertion does NOT make a lot of sense.

Possibly, a portion of those 800k coins have already been absorbed in the market.   And, do you really believe that the various holders of 800k of Bitcoins (who got burnt) are going to replace those coins?  Maybe 25% of them will, maybe.... but when would that happen?  in the next few weeks?

Exactly!

What was the max ask quantity seen on GOX? 35K, 40K, 50k? Certainly much less than 10% of what was held there. Better still, what was the max FIAT bid? $15M or so? So that's perhaps 25K coins to be rebought, assuming all the cash lost can easily be replaced and the holders would want to reinvest in BTC. More importantly most coins were mined, and mined coins aren't going to be replaced by buying.

There may be good reason for BTC to rise in value, but gox loss replacement isn't one of them.  It's simplistic thinking.

[Walsoraj]

Just a little more patience before the next leg up. 1, 2 or maybe 3 hours?

I think the whale waits for the bid sum to increase before attempting another pennant.

What do you mean attempting another pennant?

  You messing with me?  

Nope, I don't understand why you say they will attempt another pennant, since a pennant is really just another name for a consolidating range triangle formation. Do you mean to say that the whales are waiting for bids to pile up so that they can dump and break-out of the current pennant that is forming?

That would make sense to me, pump the market to new heights, beef up the bid side, so they have buyers for their coin on the way down.

I don't think your definition of a pennant is accurate. The consolidation and triangle formation follow a breakout. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pennant.asp

A successful pennant should attract new money. Makes sense to wait a bit, then re-pennant.

[SheHadMANHands]

No idea. Perhaps someone out there does know something

 https://twitter.com/niccary/status/440598582551674880

soo.. was today an..
...insider trading?!    

Which retarded bear here is Nikolay Kolev? That fucker is on every Bitcoin blog on the internet talking down Bitcoin. It must be a group of people. No singular retard could cover that much ground and have that many horrible conversations by himself.

LOL, this guy?
www.linkedin.com/in/nikolay

He literally must have 40+ hrs/week to troll articles related to Bitcoin on the Internet.  I wonder if his boss knows what he does 6 hrs/day at work...

[kkaspar]

So, is there a consensus about what caused todays sudden price increase

The world is in love with Bitcoin and most realize it is a great value?

I wouldn't stop there.. maybe the world realized that bitcoin is divine and the code was sent down directly by god. Now there will be a 120 year long age of peace and enlightenment, while the entire world is mining for the same amount of coins, that a small group of people mined in 5 years.

[JayJuanGee]

This rally will have some legs imo. 800k bitcoins need to be replaced.....

Your assertion does NOT make a lot of sense.

Possibly, a portion of those 800k coins have already been absorbed in the market.   And, do you really believe that the various holders of 800k of Bitcoins (who got burnt) are going to replace those coins?  Maybe 25% of them will, maybe.... but when would that happen?  in the next few weeks?

I´m all in BTC, lets go down now like always :|

I'm about 95% in bitcoin... I had been hoping for another downswing... which does NOT seem too likely.. maybe we might get down as low as $650?  Maybe?  Seeming less and less likely, though.

I can say with almost certainty that we will see $650 again, as we are not even very far above that level now.    I am bullish long term on bitcoin for sure, but we definitely have a lot of ups and downs still ahead of us.   There will definitely still be some flash crashes in our future (even if they last only a few minutes/hours)....

We would see $650 if someone dumped off about 1500btc right now...

I was really hoping for $510 because last week I sold a small portion of BTC (2) at $525.  We continued to drop to $530, but never got to a point that I could profit from that $525 sale.. I took my chance that we would possibly get another price drop, but it never came and NOW it is looking unlikely.  

I bought 1 BTC back in at $635.  NOW, the best (absent some flash crashes) that we can expect is lower $600s.... I would rather buy back in at a loss (maybe .6BTC), than to miss the trip to the moon... which is likely initially to the $750 to $850 range (in the next week or two), prior to departing to the $1,500 range (in the next 6 months).