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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26371484 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
podyx
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March 06, 2014, 03:04:49 AM


Not surprising, considering all the negative news lately.

http://www.google.com/trends/hottrends

look at 5

bitcoin is booming motherfucker Cool Cool

very tragic incedent btw
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UnDerDoG81
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March 06, 2014, 03:07:11 AM


Not surprising, considering all the negative news lately.

When you hover over E, C and A (at least here in german google) you see also negative news in the past. Looks like each negative news brings new people. But I cant believe I missed G in 2011.
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March 06, 2014, 03:08:15 AM

Probability of break out in the next 4 hours: 55.6%



What's with everyone calling for a breakout right now? We just met the 3 month downtrend a couple days ago, and it takes a couple weeks to break out of a 3 month downtrend. It would make no sense on the chart if it just went up right now without any consolidation.

Sense? You are still looking for sense in Bitcoin market moves?
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March 06, 2014, 03:45:21 AM

Probability of break out in the next 4 hours: 55.6%



What's with everyone calling for a breakout right now? We just met the 3 month downtrend a couple days ago, and it takes a couple weeks to break out of a 3 month downtrend. It would make no sense on the chart if it just went up right now without any consolidation.

Mostly it is due to the Gox problem finally coming to its logical conclusion. People feel that the storm has passed and the weight has been dropped. Whether this means there WILL be a breakout is, obviously, yet to be determined, but this is why people are feeling that way.
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March 06, 2014, 04:18:57 AM

major flashback to the +/- 5 dollar days. <- edit for clarity: referring to the 4 or 5 months where we were stuck at 5 bucks, give or take.

I think about this when people start getting bored after slowness for 2 days in a row. These people would never have survived that period.
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March 06, 2014, 04:20:10 AM

Velociraptor Market Confirmed!

BUY! BUY!! BUY!!!
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March 06, 2014, 04:37:12 AM

Pro Tip: "literally" does not mean "i really really mean it, like seriously"

I actually looked it up at m-w.com and discovered, to my horror, that one of the accepted meanings of "literally" is now "not literally"

Dictionaries are descriptive, not prescriptive (unfortunately enough)
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March 06, 2014, 04:56:22 AM

You still can use 4x margin so even if it is not true, you can make 10k wall with 2.5k btc.

Nothing wrong with that -- could end with massive short squeeze. Tongue

Only those who were grandfathered in can do 4x. Some get 2.5x, new users get 2x. You'd have to be insane to full leverage at 4x in this market....

I had 4X available on only one of my accounts. This changed to 2.5x recently. Exactly how is the account max leverage decided now? Will it change unexpectedly again? Is there some official word on all these changes? Pre-announcement of all such changes (here + @bfx + optional e-mail) would be very good, especially when it comes to micro structure / engine patching and changes in the actual trading contract specification. These should be published several weeks in advance unless there is emergency requirements. Also, maybe you could push changes to some fixed weekly "maintenance window".

In the 4 months I've been with BFX there's been at least three major changes to their margin trading facilities, each time my first indication that something is up has been trades not closing or error reports piling up.

First they dropped the leverage, then they came for order entry flexibility (changed it to work more like a cash market) then they hit short duration traders with fee increases (this segment should already bring in significant fees, and contain most of the mm / statarb activity, which arguably provides quite a bit of value to BFX and its users. (any secret tobin supporters at the BFX offices ?? Smiley

Due to my lousy scripting faculties/attention span I failed to notice something amiss until the losses had piled up. Turns out all my closing orders for the last 2 days were rejected due to unsufficient funds (opening was fine. go figure...). Before this I was attempting to exit by transacting -1.01 x current_position. The quick fix was to change this to 0.99X, microstep across zero and then opening up to full size.

While it was arguably on to me to fix proper reporting / cross-checking etc to start with, a simple e-mail detailing the execution logic changes would have gone a long way. I can only imagine how it would feel to someone with a more sizable account.

And to top it all off they then changed the swaps so short duration trades would cost a minimum of a full hour of interest. Changing interest calculation rate to 1/second (and/or) an option to disable auto-close of swaps would fix this.

The order entry issues could be improved on by using some liquidity-adjusted margining measure, as then you would need real money to effect real change.

Anyway, i heart BFX and trust them like i trust the stamp. I just want them to be even better (and plz give me my leverage back, i'm mostly hedged elsewhere anyway, free my bitcoins!)

EDIT: note to self, check which thread before posting next time. thought this was the bfx thread, oy well. good day to you all!
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March 06, 2014, 05:21:36 AM


We need to start searching for the term more often.
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March 06, 2014, 05:33:49 AM

hell of a wall kid

amusing to think that today a wall of that BTC magnitude would be nigh a billion USD
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March 06, 2014, 05:44:02 AM

BFX USD loan rates going up (from 0.08 to 0.20%).
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March 06, 2014, 05:50:44 AM

BFX USD loan rates going up (from 0.08 to 0.20%).

total loan outstanding only increased by $600k.  I think the loan book got a lot thinner since the day it flash crashed to 102 on BTC-E.
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March 06, 2014, 05:52:18 AM
Last edit: March 06, 2014, 06:11:38 AM by derpinheimer

Now everything is so boring... What is the biggest bid wall in terms of USD you ever spotted on an exchange? I think there was a 1.2 million wall once on Mt.Gox, but i'm not entirely sure.
This one?


This must be the biggest wall, not the one i spotted though.


hell of a wall kid

July ~800k:

Apr ~1m:



That wall taught me a hard lesson about panic selling.
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March 06, 2014, 05:53:47 AM


I want to suck in a few more bears first.

Conan! What is best in life?

Conan: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.

[All] Yay!
[Random guy in background, too late] That is good!
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March 06, 2014, 06:00:07 AM

BFX USD loan rates going up (from 0.08 to 0.20%).

total loan outstanding only increased by $600k.  I think the loan book got a lot thinner since the day it flash crashed to 102 on BTC-E.

You have a good point.

The tricky part about the loan outstanding statistics is that they lag.  They might only be generated once an hour.  So when the market moves fast, they aren't an ideal indicator.  But currently they're pretty useful - and most people are using the flash return rate so small changes to demand have a big impact on interest rates.
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March 06, 2014, 06:24:54 AM

major flashback to the +/- 5 dollar days. <- edit for clarity: referring to the 4 or 5 months where we were stuck at 5 bucks, give or take.

I think about this when people start getting bored after slowness for 2 days in a row. These people would never have survived that period.

It was too painful. I put my coins in cold storage.
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March 06, 2014, 06:28:13 AM

major flashback to the +/- 5 dollar days. <- edit for clarity: referring to the 4 or 5 months where we were stuck at 5 bucks, give or take.

I think about this when people start getting bored after slowness for 2 days in a row. These people would never have survived that period.

It was too painful. I put my coins in cold storage.

hah! well done!

it's painful for me for different reasons; as a miner at that time I still thought I was making 'free money' and I spent more bitcoin then I like to admit during those dark days Sad
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March 06, 2014, 06:30:01 AM

major flashback to the +/- 5 dollar days. <- edit for clarity: referring to the 4 or 5 months where we were stuck at 5 bucks, give or take.

I think about this when people start getting bored after slowness for 2 days in a row. These people would never have survived that period.

It was too painful. I put my coins in cold storage.

hah! well done!

it's painful for me for different reasons; as a miner at that time I still thought I was making 'free money' and I spent more bitcoin then I like to admit during those dark days Sad

When it tripled to $3 in a matter of days, I sold so many BTC...
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March 06, 2014, 06:33:33 AM

Thankfully I had not yet gotten around to ignoring kkaspar yet, so I saw this.  Of course I have to ignore him now that he caught my attention, since he is a troll who adds nothing of value, regardless of viewpoint.  Having seen the accusation of mendacity, I reply.

including billions of dollars of investment going into its infrastructure and its wider and wider network of acceptance and use.
Billions of dollars? Really? That's hype on a whole new level.

Really.  I can enumerate a billion in ventures without trying hard.  It's only a thousand millions, and a 5-10 million startup is begun practically every week.  Then there are miners, the foundation, numerous apps for every platform in currency, exchanges, miner manufacturers, purveyors of plastic, shopping sites, not to mention the dark net.  BTC turns over 6 times annually.  For each dollar of recurring cash flow multiple dollars of investment are rationally expected.


yeah try again. LIAR Wink

-> http://www.coindesk.com/following-money-trends-bitcoin-venture-capital-investment/

Quote
On the Bitcoin side, the $97.5m in venture capital that has been publicly reported underestimates the total, which would include unreported venture investment, by tens of millions of dollars. (...) Finally, it has been estimated that upwards of $200m has been invested in bitcoin mining hardware and infrastructure to date, a figure which exceeds even a less conservative estimate of the total venture capital invested in bitcoin to date.

we're far from a billion  Roll Eyes


I am a liar, but you don't qualify to call me one, hd.  In a more romantic world (not necessarily a better one) we would be drawing pistols at dawn.  I know I am a liar, because I have to wage war against myself every day, to stay on a path of truth.  I admit to indulging all too much rhetoric, by purely rationalistic standards (but definitely not by romantic ones).  More struggle remains, I guess.  But that rhetoric is not intended to deceive, and if I am in factual error I am eager to correct it, if only to steel my rhetoric against facile attacks by nattering nabobs of negativity.

I played loosely with words, and you called me out on it.  For that I commend you, in that it was an excellent call, accurately identifying your perceived opponent's weakness, and maximizing it to your perceived advantage.   I say perceived because I believe that, in fact, your own interests would be better served by seeking win-win collaboration and value-enhancing synergies than by exercising your oppositional personality disorder.

It would not, in fact, be "easy" for me to enumerate a billion in ventures full stop.  I would have to include "miners, the foundation, numerous apps for every platform in currency, exchanges, miner manufacturers, purveyors of plastic, shopping sites, not to mention the dark net".   Correction made.

One small aspect of the brilliance of bitcoin in its conception and execution is that it aggregates to its own agenda the resources previously dedicated to the fiat economy.  While resources freshly allocated to bitcoin may be less than 2 billions (but certainly more than 1 billion, and hence deserving of the term "billions", rather than "millions", which would be mendaciously misleading) the resources now commanded by bitcoin, subservient and leveraged to its design goals, are on the order of tens of billions in USDnow terms.  If bitcoin achieves its maximum conceivable penetrative success, without the expense of more than X USD of fresh purposefully dedicated infrastructure, it will have done so my commandeering trillions is pre-existing infrastructure, and re-purposing it.

By the way, hd, your attack, while well placed, lacked force.  You quoted (to your credit) parts of the source which supported my position, and the conclusions of the quote were weak refutation, if they even qualified as refutation.  The source enumerates 300 millions and explicitly states that this underestimates the total.  Moreover the source does not include resources which I explicitly mentioned (without estimating).  If the source were to underestimate by a factor of 3, it would not be incorrect as a result, thus both the source and my statement can be simultaneously true.  Thus the source is no refutation at all.  (That you choose obsessive oppositionalism over a synergetic approach, which would seek to extract what valid truth can be found instead of finding fault where perfection is lacking - everywhere, in fact -  is probably not doing you good service.)

I should not have said "easily"  but I persist that I can enumerate in excess of a billion, without excessive stretching.  This would involved many disputable numbers and perhaps even disputable resources.  They would still be enumerated, and their total would still be serving the interests of bitcoin's design, some in a dedicated manner, some in a multipurpose manner, the latter mostly inherited from pre-existing infrastructure, but fractionally co-opted by bitcoin.  It would also include ventures not considered in the total reported by your source.

(If both law and principle prevent me from defending myself with lead or steel, I can at least man up enough to use the tongue granted me, in the most temperate but penetrating manner which I can promptly muster.)


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March 06, 2014, 06:43:08 AM

Woke up seeying the price still @ $666.6

Seems I'm going to have a really bad day today.
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