Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

The killer app for Bitcoin in China is that it is a loophole to evade capital controls. This hasn't changed.

With the current restrictions, it does not seem to be very useful at that.

If a Chinese citizen buys bitcoin at Huobi with Yuan, sends the bitcoins over to Bitstamp, and exchanges then for dollars there, the end result (from PBoC's  point of view) seems to be very different from him exchanging the Yuan for dollars at some international bank, or taking the Yuan to the US and changing them there.

In the first case, his yuan stay in China, and the dollars he gets come from the pockets of non-Chinese speculators. In the second case, the Yuan end up in non-Chinese hands, and can be exploited to manipulate Chinese inflation etc..  That, in my uderstanding, is why the PBoC does not seem to care anymore about bitcoin trading in the Chinese exchanges.

[1714762366]

1714762366

[1714762366]

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[Erdogan]

[...]
Here in Brazil we have clandestine (illegal) lotteries and cassinos, and an official lottery that is run by a state-licensed private company.  Some slice of the profits go to the state, to make it seem morally acceptable.  They run ads encouraging people to play; so, yes, I think they should go to jail.

A piece of clear thinking here at last! Congrats, you are going somewhere!

What about addictive substances, have they taken that market also, like here?

[JayJuanGee]

This guy showed his hand weeks ago.

I have stated my position several times, but for those who did not see it:

* Cryptocoins are a great invention, and I wish that they succeed in their original goal -- a method of payment through the internet, especially across national borders, that is safe, cheap, convenient, fast, etc.  I wish that, and I would love to use them if and when I think that they are better for me than credit cards or other existing means.  I wish that, but I do not think that the chances are good. (One shoudl never confuse "desire" with "expectation".)

* I am not a libertarian. I believe that governments are useful and necessary, and we should fight to democratize and improve them rather than abolish them. I see the libertarians' idea of getting rid of governments as sheer lunacy. (For one thing, if you don't have your own strong democratic government, other people will gladly and forcibly lend you theirs.)  And I see their hope that bitcoin will let them build their utopia outside the reach of governments as lunacy squared.

* Adults have the right to do whatever they want with their money (within limits of law and ethics, of course), including investing it in whatever they like, gambling it, or even throwing it away. 

* In particular, I do not care care if someone buys a lottery ticket when he is fully aware of the odds, or trades it with some fellow gambler who is equally aware of them. 

* However, if I see someone buying a lottery ticket because he thinks it is a good investment, I feel this Darwinian duty (magnified by professional habit) to inform that fellow primate about the odds, expected value, and all that.  If the guy does not believe me, then, shrug,  that is his problem.  And, of course, I consider myself excused of that duty if  I think that the guy may steal my bananas, or if he snarled some unfriendly noises at me.

* Finally, when someone tries to convince others to buy lottery tickets, by telling them that it is a good investment, when his motive is actually to make a profit out of their "investment" -- then that guy is a scammer, and should go to jail.

I agree with a large number of your points and subpoints however, I do NOT understand why  bitcoin and/or some other crypto-currencies cannot fit within your world view.  In other words, neither bitcoin nor other crypto-currencies need to be incompatible with your world view.  We can still have government and crypto-currencies.  I recognize that there are a lot of libertarians in the crypto-currency space; however, I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people... I also believe that crypto currencies can facilitate the will of the people.. and likely facilitate government that follows the will of the people.

[billyjoeallen]

And you really believe that bitcoin is the best legal loophole in China to evade capital controls? Or even just a good way? Or that bitcoin is the most secure way to hedge against inflation? That a business owner actually buys bitcoins while saying "ha! now my wealth is safe in this stable and secure currency!".

They're evading capital control by moving wealth out of the country. Why, as you suggest, would they be holding bitcoin at the endpoint?

They wouldn't necessarily, but mobile capital has utility that the relatively immobile yuan doesn't. They possibly might hold BTC as an inflation hedge as I mentioned, but volatility obviously limits the appeal.

Bitcoin is easier, safer, and less time-consuming than booking a trip to Macau and buying poker chips just to cash them out in a different currency. Going through all the trouble of creating a shell company can't be a better loophole either unless you are dealing with substantial sums.

[JayJuanGee]

Are you telling me that one of the biggest exchanges losing their customers money didn't cause a reversal from a downtrend that was caused by the loss of demand in China? How can this be? :O This is impossible!

Sounds like you missed the rally and hope to get another crack. GTFO. The correction to $530 was because of China. Gox took us down to $400. These things can overlap.

Yes, you are absolutely right. I'm angry because there won't be any volatility any longer in the crypto scene to make money at the expense of fools. So I just invented this so called "demand in China" and how it's loss caused a boring 2 month long dead cat bounce.
But I'll try to correct my ways and listen to the TA wizards here who have skillz of drawing linez.

China didn't have anything to do with the downtrend in February, and there is no reason to suppose demand in China is decreasing. The biggest issue with China recently was the uncertainty of what would happen on January 31st (which amounted to nothing); and all we did in January was fluctuate around $800 while worrying about the possibility of something on the 31st. February's downtrend was caused by uncertainty in mtgox and other exchanges, lies about the extent of transaction malleability, some finally mtgox's insolvency. Those issues have mostly been resolved at this point. I wouldn't wait for cheap (sub 600) coins anymore at this point. I think the downtrend is over, unless we get more seriously bad news, which is never unlikely in the bitcoin world.

It was game over for bitcoin in China when it was announced that there is no future for legal business supported by bitcoin. It ment that no serious investors who want to keep solid relations with the government won't touch bitcoin. The market that is left is basically walking on a thin line, only waiting for getting shut down and possibly prosecuted. Only thing that created the long dead cat bounce was denial, desperation and stupidity. If you have been looking at the charts then you know that overall demand has constantly been dropping, with only thing holding the price up is that there aren't many people who are willing to sell cheap. But this in turn is causing a decrease in volume and only way to stimulate the market is lowering the price little by litle...this will reach a critical point when the "will of the hodlers" will break and there will be a nice fall.
Anyway, I'm not arguing about this anymore, I have found that sarcasm is more suitable for this place. I'm tired of the "line drawers" calling for new and new bottoms for these past 2 months. You do whatever you wish and believe whatever you believe.

If you have such beliefs, then why are you hanging around here?  Why dont you just sell your bitcoins and leave?  Are you here to save the rest of us from ourselves from bitcoin from what?    Or are you still investing in the meantime?

Because it's profitable to earn money at the expense of people who don't know any better.

OK>>>>> that is fair..      I agree that you do NOT have to believe in the long term success of bitcoin in order to profit from its volatility and even from its trend... that is if you can predict correctly in order to turn a profit.

The killer app for Bitcoin in China is that it is a loophole to evade capital controls. This hasn't changed.

With the current restrictions, it does not seem to be very useful at that.

If a Chinese citizen buys bitcoin at Huobi with Yuan, sends the bitcoins over to Bitstamp, and exchanges then for dollars there, the end result (from PBoC's  point of view) seems to be very different from him exchanging the Yuan for dollars at some international bank, or taking the Yuan to the US and changing them there.

In the first case, his yuan stay in China, and the dollars he gets come from the pockets of non-Chinese speculators. In the second case, the Yuan end up in non-Chinese hands, and can be exploited to manipulate Chinese inflation etc..  That, in my uderstanding, is why the PBoC does not seem to care anymore about bitcoin trading in the Chinese exchanges.

Also, I thought that the Chinese did NOT care so much about bitcoin is b/c in essence they are trying to find investment vehicles outside of the dollar... and in that sense, the chinese have an interest in the success and stability of bitcoin as a storage of value, outside of the dollar.

[Templer]

big sellout on bitcoinbuilder!

[Erdogan]

This guy showed his hand weeks ago.

I have stated my position several times, but for those who did not see it:

* Cryptocoins are a great invention, and I wish that they succeed in their original goal -- a method of payment through the internet, especially across national borders, that is safe, cheap, convenient, fast, etc.  I wish that, and I would love to use them if and when I think that they are better for me than credit cards or other existing means.  I wish that, but I do not think that the chances are good. (One shoudl never confuse "desire" with "expectation".)

* I am not a libertarian. I believe that governments are useful and necessary, and we should fight to democratize and improve them rather than abolish them. I see the libertarians' idea of getting rid of governments as sheer lunacy. (For one thing, if you don't have your own strong democratic government, other people will gladly and forcibly lend you theirs.)  And I see their hope that bitcoin will let them build their utopia outside the reach of governments as lunacy squared.

* Adults have the right to do whatever they want with their money (within limits of law and ethics, of course), including investing it in whatever they like, gambling it, or even throwing it away. 

* In particular, I do not care care if someone buys a lottery ticket when he is fully aware of the odds, or trades it with some fellow gambler who is equally aware of them. 

* However, if I see someone buying a lottery ticket because he thinks it is a good investment, I feel this Darwinian duty (magnified by professional habit) to inform that fellow primate about the odds, expected value, and all that.  If the guy does not believe me, then, shrug,  that is his problem.  And, of course, I consider myself excused of that duty if  I think that the guy may steal my bananas, or if he snarled some unfriendly noises at me.

* Finally, when someone tries to convince others to buy lottery tickets, by telling them that it is a good investment, when his motive is actually to make a profit out of their "investment" -- then that guy is a scammer, and should go to jail.

I agree with a large number of your points and subpoints however, I do NOT understand why  bitcoin and/or some other crypto-currencies cannot fit within your world view.  In other words, neither bitcoin nor other crypto-currencies need to be incompatible with your world view.  We can still have government and crypto-currencies.  I recognize that there are a lot of libertarians in the crypto-currency space; however, I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people... I also believe that crypto currencies can facilitate the will of the people.. and likely facilitate government that follows the will of the people.

The main thing governments do with their money, is increasing the supply (newspeak regulating, keep prices stable). If he thinks that government needs to have this power, bitcoin is at odds.

[Richy_T]

I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people.

So do the libertarians.

[Yololintian]

China didn't have anything to do with the downtrend in February, and there is no reason to suppose demand in China is decreasing. The biggest issue with China recently was the uncertainty of what would happen on January 31st (which amounted to nothing); and all we did in January was fluctuate around $800 while worrying about the possibility of something on the 31st. February's downtrend was caused by uncertainty in mtgox and other exchanges, lies about the extent of transaction malleability, some finally mtgox's insolvency. Those issues have mostly been resolved at this point.

Then how comes the price remained stable throughout the Chinese New Year's holiday week (from ~Jan/29 to ~Feb/05), when volume was very low at the Chinese exchanges; and started to decrease, with increased volume. as soon as the holiday ended and banks opened?

The MtGOX withdrawal problems did not seem to have any effect on China, which is understandable since MtGOX is as relevant to Chinese investors as BTC0China is to western ones.  On the other hand, the announcement on Feb/10 of a "bug in bitcoin" did shake all markets, including China.

I think its simply because the events that caused the downtrend began on feb 5th. The first event was the glitch on bitfinex that allowed people to trade with absurd leverage, which caused some FUD and caused a dip to 685 on bitfinex on feb 5th/6th. One or two days later, the exchanges were being ddosed and the malleability issue was brought to light. Of course, this caused higher volume and selling pressure - lower prices on all exchanges including the Chinese ones. Interestingly enough, China reacted less than the other exchanges in terms of magnitude of price decrease during most of these events. I think that suggests they weren't as concerned, and might have gotten the information slower in most cases.

[kkaspar]

And you really believe that bitcoin is the best legal loophole in China to evade capital controls? Or even just a good way? Or that bitcoin is the most secure way to hedge against inflation? That a business owner actually buys bitcoins while saying "ha! now my wealth is safe in this stable and secure currency!".

They're evading capital control by moving wealth out of the country. Why, as you suggest, would they be holding bitcoin at the endpoint?

They wouldn't necessarily, but mobile capital has utility that the relatively immobile yuan doesn't. They possibly might hold BTC as an inflation hedge as I mentioned, but volatility obviously limits the appeal.

Bitcoin is easier, safer, and less time-consuming than booking a trip to Macau and buying poker chips just to cash them out in a different currency. Going through all the trouble of creating a shell company can't be a better loophole either unless you are dealing with substantial sums.

People don't usually build their own shell companies but they use services of professionals. It's not very hard to find one with recommendations if you are a somebody. I think that it's possible the Chinese govt hasn't shut down the exchanges just yet, because it's a good honeypot to flag the people and companies that are doing bank deposits to buy bitcoins.
Transferring money out with bitcoins would only be suitable to people who do business without any paper trail and with cash, in another words illegal activities like drugs. It can create some trade but not enough to be interesting.

[JayJuanGee]

This guy showed his hand weeks ago.

I have stated my position several times, but for those who did not see it:

* Cryptocoins are a great invention, and I wish that they succeed in their original goal -- a method of payment through the internet, especially across national borders, that is safe, cheap, convenient, fast, etc.  I wish that, and I would love to use them if and when I think that they are better for me than credit cards or other existing means.  I wish that, but I do not think that the chances are good. (One shoudl never confuse "desire" with "expectation".)

* I am not a libertarian. I believe that governments are useful and necessary, and we should fight to democratize and improve them rather than abolish them. I see the libertarians' idea of getting rid of governments as sheer lunacy. (For one thing, if you don't have your own strong democratic government, other people will gladly and forcibly lend you theirs.)  And I see their hope that bitcoin will let them build their utopia outside the reach of governments as lunacy squared.

* Adults have the right to do whatever they want with their money (within limits of law and ethics, of course), including investing it in whatever they like, gambling it, or even throwing it away.  

* In particular, I do not care care if someone buys a lottery ticket when he is fully aware of the odds, or trades it with some fellow gambler who is equally aware of them.  

* However, if I see someone buying a lottery ticket because he thinks it is a good investment, I feel this Darwinian duty (magnified by professional habit) to inform that fellow primate about the odds, expected value, and all that.  If the guy does not believe me, then, shrug,  that is his problem.  And, of course, I consider myself excused of that duty if  I think that the guy may steal my bananas, or if he snarled some unfriendly noises at me.

* Finally, when someone tries to convince others to buy lottery tickets, by telling them that it is a good investment, when his motive is actually to make a profit out of their "investment" -- then that guy is a scammer, and should go to jail.

I agree with a large number of your points and subpoints however, I do NOT understand why  bitcoin and/or some other crypto-currencies cannot fit within your world view.  In other words, neither bitcoin nor other crypto-currencies need to be incompatible with your world view.  We can still have government and crypto-currencies.  I recognize that there are a lot of libertarians in the crypto-currency space; however, I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people... I also believe that crypto currencies can facilitate the will of the people.. and likely facilitate government that follows the will of the people.

The main thing governments do with their money, is increasing the supply (newspeak regulating, keep prices stable). If he thinks that government needs to have this power, bitcoin is at odds.

Personally, I believe that it is pie in the sky, if we were to believe that bitcoin were going to take over any large percentage of fiat currencies in the near future.  However, a few years from now this may become more possible.   I suppose that any government (such as the US govt) needs to calculate the extent to which bitcoin may be considered to be at odds with it.  

I agree that there has been a lot of conniving with the US Govt printing of money and a lot of the secrecy that has gone along with the distribution of that newly printed money.  Certainly, bitcoin should be able to contribute towards competing with that aspect of what really appears to be irresponsible government.

I am NOT one of them b/c I believe in government as the will of the people.

So do the libertarians.

I may have overstated this point to some extent - b/c I recognize that there may exist several flavors of libertarianism...

My main point is that i do NOT view govt as the problem.  However, I do believe that too much money influence in buying politicians is more frequently the problem that makes our government go awry.... ... ultimately, money should NOT be used to purchase politicians or to divert them from representing the will of the people.

[TERA]

I've been pretty bullish lately but I do have one concern. The injection of fiat into bitstamp order books seems to have stopped. There isn't any more fiat on the books nows than there was in the past week in the 500 levels. The amount of selling (in btc) to reach 400 is exactly the same and the total amount of fiat on the books is actually LESS because all the bids in the 300s and 200s were removed.  If I don't see another fiat injection in the next week, I am going to get really concerned.

[gizmoh]

big sellout on bitcoinbuilder!

No trader really wanted to keep Gox-Btc it was a House of Cards. Now that the music will stop (halt trading today) , its time to leave the already sunken ship..

[hdbuck]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bitcoin-could-be-manipulated-and-that-s-ok-165845510.html

If Bitcoin were a stock trading that thin it would take a stunningly small amount of money to manipulate the price. In fact, if Bitcoin traders played it the way stock trading syndicates controlled stocks in the days before the SEC, they could just trade Bitcoin back and forth to one another, walking the price higher and creating the illusion of support.  

No way is that happening. Just no way. Not my precious bitcoins.

lol

Blitz knows the truth:

Your coins belong to US

What just happened on Bitstamp? 64 btc order down to 633, doesn't make sense. Anyone can confirm it's just a btcwisdom glitch, or did the trade actually hit 630 for real?

WTF?! Just checked on tradingview, they show it as well. Bitstamp trading enging fucked up?!

Like MoreFun said. The Api shows, that there were 2 trades went through. Check a few trades earlier or https://www.bitstamp.net/api/transactions/ (633.64)

The same happened at MtGox too and 4 weeks later MtGox has gone.

See my very first postings at this board:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=450194.msg4953836#msg4953836
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=450194.msg4954050#msg4954050

Now we will be stamped!!!  

no no no  

[Solarstorm75]

I am going to get really concerned.

You should. Now we see the bull trap unfold.

[ChrisML]

^what she says. Do it.

Srsly?

Oh, I guess the avatar misled

  just fucking witcha

[JorgeStolfi]

The mere fact that you refer to them as cryptocoins tells me that you're ready to start giving sound market analysis. 

I say "cryptocoins" rather than "bitcoin" because bitcoin is obviously only one of them, and any of them would serve for that otiginal goal.

-you don't own any "cryptocoins"

One excuse for that is that it helps me keep neutral.  Fom watching the bitcoin scene, I now strongly suspect that if I owned  even one bitcon, I would start looking for "bullish" facts and thoughts and ignoring "bearish" ones, would prefer models that show its price going up, would wish for more people to invest in it, would wish for the other altcoins to fail, ....

Do you really expect a different reaction from us? I have no problem with people giving honest criticisms to cryptocurrencies, but this is obviously not the forum in which to be doing it. I would think the developer forum would be more to your intellectual liking. Traders here are generally aware of how they work, inside and out, are aware of the risks, and have heard it all a hundred times before.

I know that this is not the place to criticize bitcoin, and I try to avoid proselitizing.  But I have been criticized (to put it mildly) for "hiding" my negative feelings.   On the other hand, if someone posts claims about bitcoin that I believe are incorrect, why can't I reply?

As for the reactions, I don't mind people blasting my ideas.  To those who take it on my person instead, I warn again, don't push it -- you don't know what I am capable of (both in the sense of "having the means" and "having no mercy".)  Anonimity, distance, firearms, friends in the Yakuza, tears from you mom -- nothing will protect you.

[Walsoraj]

I think it was Hunter S. Thompson (maybe others too) who said, "In a democracy, people get the government they deserve."

One might add that financial systems are under control of governments and by extension, the people.

[EuroTrash]

Been away for a few hours and I see this:



What happened? Bulls retaliated preemptively?

[podyx]

am i the only one thinking its very bullish that we are still in a bearish sentiment? lol