Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[podyx]

[1714918133]

1714918133

[madmat]

Back to 600 on stamp. rocket is ready to start.

[rebuilder]

A bullish news for the real bitcoin economy, Blackphone shipping in July:
http://www.tomsguide.com/us/blackphone-release-date,news-19002.html

The blackphone is neat too bad its sold out might consider getting it
Encrypted communication always has a value plus a VPN
That said putting Blockchain on it would be a bonus hehe

I'd rather they make PrivatOS open source. They could still keep selling the Blackphone, but release the OS source so we can see what it's all about. I don't trust closed-source security/privacy stuff. Who knows what's in there.

This. When it comes to security, procedure is king. Trust is bad procedure.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[oda.krell]

That said, if someone else does know about a (peer reviewed even?) study on the efficacy of TA, I'd be interested.

EDIT: I'm a lazy bastard. I just didn't look very well. How about this one? Looks pretty good to me as a broad overview:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=603481

TL;DR

Among a total of 92 modern studies, 58 studies found positive results regarding technical trading strategies, while 24 studies obtained negative results. Ten studies indicated mixed results. Despite the positive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies, it appears that most empirical studies are subject to various problems in their testing procedures, e.g., data snooping, ex post selection of trading rules or search technologies, and difficulties in estimation of risk and transaction costs. Future research must address these deficiencies in testing in order to provide conclusive evidence on the profitability of technical trading strategies.

Did I mention I'm lazy?

a) Back testing of TA should be very easy: all data available, all strategies are easy to program, computers are fast. It would take no time to test all sets of indicators and all strategies in all markets for all years. If only 2/3 of studies give some positive result, it means that profitability of TA, if exists at all, is at noise level. For practical purposes, an average trader can assume that TA doesn't work.
b) But bitcoin is different (c). It is exponentially growing market, therefore it is very far from efficient market, so it should be possible to earn on it. TA should work different here. It would be interesting to see any research of TA on bitcoin market. But probably such researches don't yet exist. And by the time they will appear, it'll be too late: bitcoin will stabilize and will become subject of "normal" TA, like forex or stock.

You're simplifying the situation a bit too much.

Backtesting TA isn't easy at all. The study mentions the crucial point here: ex post facto selection (of methods and parameters). It is not enough that I give you some set of parameters and we see how it performs, I need to be able to justify the selection of those parameters from a non-privileged point in time.

Also, where do you get the idea from that "if only 2/3 of the studies are positive, it's no better than noise". Depending on the selection and setup of the study, the ratio could be a lot lower and still be considered significant. To show that TA works, there needs to some algorithm that can be shown to outperform the market in a way that is unlikely to be happening by pure chance. If you as an investor/trader then want to employ that (or similar) algorithms is a different question altogether, i.e. the result could be that TA works, but the benefit could still be too small for most traders to make it worth their while employing TA (not saying that's the case... just that it's a possible outcome)

[blatchcorn]

Hold only if you can take the pain when it goes sub 300or 200$. It might get back to 600$ , but that could take another year or two. The bubbles before have been artificially created by non-existent MtGox USD.
There is no garantuee at all that we will see another ATH bubble. I have to say that we might get a bubble from 70$ to 500$ , if it should drop that far.  

Is that 3 times now we have got back to 600 in a week?

[mmitech]

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money )... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

I attacked you because you said you went full LTC which is foolish, LTC is tanking and doomed to fail. If you are considering so, you'd better go full fiat. I have no problem with people who don't see the big picture selling their stash of bitcoins. Enjoy your life.

 I want to remind most of you here that it is not your fucking problem what I do with my money or what I think about any investment...it is still my point of view and I don't want to hear that I am being "foolish"... period.

Don't advise people to sell their bitcoins to litecoins and i will stop saying it is foolish. Meanwhile BTC recovered and LTC is approaching 0.016. Remember what i told you : south 0.01 by the end of the year. Fiat will tank even more than LTC against BTC, but at least it makes sense to go full fiat for a risk adverse person. Don't advise here if you don't want comments on your advices.

I didn't advice anyone about anything and I don't even advice my best friends about any investment, you are just being buthurt because I am trading against your wish .... idiotic.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[CoinHamster]

[  ] pennant
[  ] ascending triangle
[  ] unfinished head and shoulders
[  ] triple top
[  ] none of the above but bullish
 

[boumalo]

Hold only if you can take the pain when it goes sub 300or 200$. It might get back to 600$ , but that could take another year or two. The bubbles before have been artificially created by non-existent MtGox USD.
There is no garantuee at all that we will see another ATH bubble. I have to say that we might get a bubble from 70$ to 500$ , if it should drop that far.  

Is that 3 times now we have got back to 600 in a week?

Yes but I am looking for when we will finally cross 700$ again; almost all of us will be looking up again

[spooderman]

come on let's have some movement!

[_javi_]

choo choo sent back to station..
dumpity dump

[Krabby]

come on let's have some movement!

wish (sort of) granted

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

I want to remind most of you here that it is not your fucking problem what I do with my money or what I think about any investment...it is still my point of view and I don't want to hear that I am being "foolish"... period.

I hear ya. It's one thing to disagree with someone's position but another to try and convince them they're "wrong". I hope you have a great two years off if that's your plan.

[fonzie]

Lol @ mmitech who insulted me after every bearish post of mine and asked me what the fuck i am doing here if i don´t believe in bitcoin. Now he says he doesn´t give a fuck about the technology and that he has sold most of his stuff because he thinks that it probably goes down. Talking bout hypocrisy

MMITECH IS DEFINITELY THE BIGGEST TROLL


He might have turned into a bear due to the full moon last week? Bulls be careful, it could also happen to you!

[Nightowlace]

I want to remind most of you here that it is not your fucking problem what I do with my money or what I think about any investment...it is still my point of view and I don't want to hear that I am being "foolish"... period.

I hear ya. It's one thing to disagree with someone's position but another to try and convince them they're "wrong". I hope you have a great two years off if that's your plan.

If you are posting your position, thoughts, etc on a public forum then you should expect people to disagree, convince you that you're wrong and tell you what an idiot you are. Hi I'm Nightowlace allow me to be the first to welcome you to the internet. It's tough out here kid, you're gonna need to man up and get yourself a thick skin.

[mmitech]

Lol @ mmitech who insulted me after every bearish of mine and asked me what the fuck i am doing here if i don´t believe in bitcoin. Now he says he doesn´t give a fuck about the technology and that he has sold most of his stuff because he thinks that it probably goes down. Talking bout hypocrisy

MMITECH IS DEFINITELY THE BIGGEST TROLL


He might have turned into a bear due to the full moon last week? Bulls be careful, it could also happen to you!

you are the biggest troll, I Still believe in my investment,  and I didn't sell most of my coins but half of them, also this is called risk management (not that most of bitcoiners here agree but whatever) no matter how sure sometimes you think you are, things can still go wrong... we all want the price to go up and I will be so happy when it does but if it goes down I will say "shit that was close and good I had a plan B".

but some blind fools here refuse to understand a really simple logic I am following, it doesn't matter if you don't agree, we all have the right to have our own opinions... but there are some lines we tend to not cross.

[tarmi]

I want to remind most of you here that it is not your fucking problem what I do with my money or what I think about any investment...it is still my point of view and I don't want to hear that I am being "foolish"... period.

I hear ya. It's one thing to disagree with someone's position but another to try and convince them they're "wrong". I hope you have a great two years off if that's your plan.

I am with mmitech too.

He can post his bullish positions on litecoin whenever he wants, but on the other hand, I can still consider that call a stupidity.