Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[aminorex]

Monero crashing following my prediction some minutes ago! Cmon baby, crash like a boss!!

Indeed that was sweet.  I nearly doubled my XMR at 0.4625.  At this point my cost basis has gone negative.  A couple more "events" like that and I will be an XMR whale.  As long as it is cheaper to buy than to mine, and difficulty keeps rising exponentially, I'm going to be a net buyer.

[1714915263]

1714915263

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dotto]

Oh... it has intantly rebounded, it seems theres no entry point tonight, maybe tomorrow when people realise the dump.

Be a good whale, Aminorex  

[mmitech]

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money )... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

I attacked you because you said you went full LTC which is foolish, LTC is tanking and doomed to fail. If you are considering so, you'd better go full fiat. I have no problem with people who don't see the big picture selling their stash of bitcoins. Enjoy your life.

 I want to remind most of you here that it is not your fucking problem what I do with my money or what I think about any investment...it is still my point of view and I don't want to hear that I am being "foolish"... period.

[Wary]

a) Back testing of TA should be very easy: all data available, all strategies are easy to program, computers are fast. It would take no time to test all sets of indicators and all strategies in all markets for all years. If only 2/3 of studies give some positive result, it means that profitability of TA, if exists at all, is at noise level. For practical purposes, an average trader can assume that TA doesn't work.
b) But bitcoin is different (c). It is exponentially growing market, therefore it is very far from efficient market, so it should be possible to earn on it. TA should work different here. It would be interesting to see any research of TA on bitcoin market. But probably such researches don't yet exist. And by the time they will appear, it'll be too late: bitcoin will stabilize and will become subject of "normal" TA, like forex or stock.

It is more subtle than that.  Any computable function, and many non-computable functions, can be made into a strategy.  That's a very large space.  What you consider a successful strategy is itself a subtle and complex question.  Bounding the amount of overfit is something of an art, for example.

What is easy is deciding whether a given estimator outperforms the current price as an estimate of the future price at some particular time.  Somewhat more useful is deciding under which conditions of the environment it is an outperforming predictor, and how large is the edge in each class.

The book Evidence Based Technical Analysis is a good overview, suited to the layman.  Marcos Lopez de Prado has some recent work on measuring overfit which is quite excellent, if you're interested in the cutting edge, and mathematically literate.

Agree, the number of possible functions is infinite. We cannot be sure about all of them. But we can be sure about the standard set of most common indicators and common strategies. And if 1/3 of researches aren't sure, we can conclude that the standard indicators & standard strategies don't work. That's probably why both you and oda are creating your own, non-standard ones. 
Anyway, I'd better look at the book (thanks) first.

[shmadz]

Inspirational Buy All the Bitcoins Speech

Sons of the internet, I am AdamStgBit, and I see a whole army of my countrymen here in defiance of closed source centralized systems, you've come here to buy and sell on the free market, and a free men you are ( expect for Jorge, sadly...). What will you do without FREEDOM!?? WILL YOU BUY!?

"No! No! we will sell and/or hope for lower prices, if not, least we'll have some fiat, to pay the bills"

Ya ok, buy now and you might lose, sell now and you'll have some fiat to pay the bills.

At least a while...

And drowning in debt many years from now, would you be willing to trade all the days from this day to that, for once chance, just one chance! to come back here and tell the bankers that they may take our mortgage payment directly out of our accounts without asking, and even take the house after taking all our money, but they'll never take our BITCOINS!!!

* inspired by https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L21-vnlPk_o *

even though I'd like to see some blood red waterfalls right about now, that was well done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lzl5t1Sracc

[Wary]

I want to remind most of you here that it is not your fucking problem what I do with my money or what I think about any investment...it is still my point of view and I don't want to hear that I am being "foolish"... period.

You should not put yourself above the Community and the People!

[ihaveaquestion]

What is a 'weak hand'? Why is this type of penny stock terminology used in bitcoin? Does this imply that bitcoin is some type of investment scheme to hold rather than a currency to use?

It's a poker term long before "penny stocks." It means you lack confidence in you ability to play.

So it's a profit making game and not the future of money?

Is money not about profit?

Bitcoin is supposed to be about creating a decentralized network to change the way the world does finance and payments - not about getting all the bitcoin participants to be rich off of the successive waves of bitcoin participants because the unit value rose and having a contest about who made the most profits.

I invested to make money and to be able to reach some goals ( the volatility makes it easier than working hard to earn that money )... I literally don't give a fuck about the technology behind it, it is a cool innovation and all but I don't think it is a reason for to risk my life savings and be a "strong hand" when I could collect profits and not be a greedy bastard.... most of the time people here will attack you when you tell them that you are trading to make a profit or when you tell them you cashed out some of your holdings....

I attacked you because you said you went full LTC which is foolish, LTC is tanking and doomed to fail. If you are considering so, you'd better go full fiat. I have no problem with people who don't see the big picture selling their stash of bitcoins. Enjoy your life.

 I want to remind most of you here that it is not your fucking problem what I do with my money or what I think about any investment...it is still my point of view and I don't want to hear that I am being "foolish"... period.

Don't advise people to sell their bitcoins to litecoins and i will stop saying it is foolish. Meanwhile BTC recovered and LTC is approaching 0.016. Remember what i told you : south 0.01 by the end of the year. Fiat will tank even more than LTC against BTC, but at least it makes sense to go full fiat for a risk adverse person. Don't advise here if you don't want comments on your advices.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gingermod]

Explanation

That's ready to go

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Parazyd]

Going back to 600 again... Sideways

Shit, I woke up at 4:30 AM and now I'm seeing spiders and hearing mosquitoes all around.
How I hate the summer.

[ShroomsKit]

Why do people keep dumping in a market that clearly wants to go up?

[aminorex]

Why do people keep dumping in a market that clearly wants to go up?

Don't anthropomorphize the market -- it hates that.

[Gingermod]

Why do people keep dumping in a market that clearly wants to go up?

Don't anthropomorphize the market -- it hates that.

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[majamalu]

Don't anthropomorphize the market -- it hates that.

  Passing by just to re quote this.

[JimboToronto]

Why do people keep dumping in a market that clearly wants to go up?

Don't anthropomorphize the market -- it hates that.

Don't you mean, "She hates that"?

[TERA]

Everyone knows bitcoin is a honey badger, not a person.

[keithers]

We are pretty much exactly where we were at when I commented last night that we have a little work to do to get to $600 levels again.   It happened for us last night, but we slipped back down a bit.  Hopefully this evening we can rally up $5-$10 and keep it going from there...

[nrd525]

Wouldn't it be more fun to sell 200% of the bitcoins using leverage?  You could make $15 billion when it drops to zero.