wachtwoord
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Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136
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June 08, 2013, 10:11:43 AM |
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Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide. My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!  You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days? I'll just leave this here* Day 500 ==> 0.5
Day 1000 ==> 1.42
500 day increase 1.42/0.5=2.84
So in the 500 days: 1.42*2.84 = 4.0328
log(10783.5) = 4.0328
So Bitcoin price in 500 days: $10782.5
* I'm not advocating this model |
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sarc
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Activity: 98
Merit: 10
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June 08, 2013, 10:17:29 AM |
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Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.
My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!
You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days? I'll just leave this here* Day 500 ==> 0.5
Day 1000 ==> 1.42
500 day increase 1.42/0.5=2.84
So in the 500 days: 1.42*2.84 = 4.0328
log(10783.5) = 4.0328
So Bitcoin price in 500 days: $10782.5
* I'm not advocating this model oops, you might want to check your math bitcoin price (logged+1) = -0.0635+0.0013791*days since the start in 500 days = $100.2 edit : I don't advocate this model either. 
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wachtwoord
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Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136
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June 08, 2013, 10:20:39 AM |
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I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart? log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores) log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days) My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart  Note; the 4.0328 figure comes from extrapolating the growth between 500 and 1000 days linearly |
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sarc
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Activity: 98
Merit: 10
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June 08, 2013, 10:22:31 AM |
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I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart? log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores) log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days) My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart wipe those bleary eyes and have a coffee.  |
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ShroomsKit
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June 08, 2013, 10:26:15 AM |
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The case for continuing downtrend:
The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.
The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.
Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.
Hello 100 and double digits..
I will welcome them with open arms  Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything. |
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Miz4r
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Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
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June 08, 2013, 10:30:37 AM |
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Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.
As I remember people saying when the price was skyrocketing but other were still denying it was a bubble: If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ... free yourself! Yes I free myself by buying bitcoins thanks. If it looks like FUD, smells like FUD, ... |
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phoenix1
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June 08, 2013, 10:32:26 AM
Last edit: June 08, 2013, 12:23:02 PM by phoenix1 |
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This is what I think I know :
1) The blockchain essentially a decentralised, encrypted ledger
[...]
How am I doing so far ?
Not so well. Try again If I remove the decentralised bit does it sound better ?  Clearly the blockchain is the blockchain ... saying it was decentralised was dumb. I intended to refer to the decentralised nature of the network supporting and processing it. EDIT: I've just been advised that it is not encrypted either ... bit of a fail there ... more homework Thanks zebedee ... |
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gizmoh
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Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
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June 08, 2013, 10:34:34 AM |
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The case for continuing downtrend:
The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.
The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.
Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.
Hello 100 and double digits..
I will welcome them with open arms Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything. Agree. Cheap coins might be 'costlier' at one point. |
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Rampion
Legendary
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
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June 08, 2013, 10:38:13 AM |
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The case for continuing downtrend:
The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.
The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.
Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.
Hello 100 and double digits..
I will welcome them with open arms Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything. Agree. Cheap coins might be 'costlier' at one point. You really have weak faith in BTC if you think that a bubble deflation can "hurt" it. Let it go bust. It will slowly recover, real economy and infrastructure will slowly improve, and it will rise much stronger during the next hype cycle. It can happen in 2 years. Seriously, who cares? This is not a get quick rich investment. It's much more than that. |
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ElectricMucus
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Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
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June 08, 2013, 10:40:08 AM |
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People who went "all in" at 50 do care.
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phoenix1
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June 08, 2013, 10:44:08 AM |
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People who went "all in" at 50 do care.
If they are all in at $50 and scared of a crash then they are over extended and should reduce their exposure ... at a profit. What a terrible problem to be faced with |
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ElectricMucus
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Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
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June 08, 2013, 10:50:23 AM |
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People who went "all in" at 50 do care.
If they are all in at $50 and scared of a crash then they are over extended and should reduce their exposure ... at a profit. What a terrible problem to be faced with They should, of course but people don't act rational that way. |
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samson
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Activity: 2097
Merit: 1070
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June 08, 2013, 10:53:24 AM |
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People who went "all in" at 50 do care.
If they are all in at $50 and scared of a crash then they are over extended and should reduce their exposure ... at a profit. What a terrible problem to be faced with They should, of course but people don't act rational that way. If they went all in at $50 they should have sold them already - I know I have and I went all in at $60. I'm just waiting for it to bottom out now. After selling at $162 I was told by many people that I'm going to miss the train and will regret it. |
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Rampion
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Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
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June 08, 2013, 10:55:49 AM |
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People who went "all in" at 50 do care.
I'm all in and I don't give a shit. I will fall and raise with BTC |
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
 Online
Activity: 2366
Merit: 1820
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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June 08, 2013, 11:01:17 AM |
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lucas.sev
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June 08, 2013, 11:07:50 AM |
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People who went "all in" at 50 do care.
I'm all in and I don't give a shit. I will fall and raise with BTC You and rpitella are very alike. |
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ElectricMucus
Legendary
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Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
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June 08, 2013, 11:08:59 AM |
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People who went "all in" at 50 do care.
I'm all in and I don't give a shit. I will fall and raise with BTC Being reckless with your decisions doesn't mean you are indifferent about them. |
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sarc
Member
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Activity: 98
Merit: 10
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June 08, 2013, 11:09:30 AM |
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People who went "all in" at 50 do care.
I'm all in and I don't give a shit. I will fall and raise with BTC You and rpitella are very alike. ouch, low blow... |
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sarc
Member
Offline
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
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June 08, 2013, 11:22:29 AM |
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ShroomsKit
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June 08, 2013, 11:23:17 AM |
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The case for continuing downtrend:
The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.
The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.
Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.
Hello 100 and double digits..
I will welcome them with open arms Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything. Agree. Cheap coins might be 'costlier' at one point. You really have weak faith in BTC if you think that a bubble deflation can "hurt" it. Let it go bust. It will slowly recover, real economy and infrastructure will slowly improve, and it will rise much stronger during the next hype cycle. It can happen in 2 years. Seriously, who cares? This is not a get quick rich investment. It's much more than that. Not sure how anyone can possibly think another -100 won't hurt it. Being happy about it is just completely stupid. |
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