Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[adamstgBit]

also the ridiculous ROI poeple have reported for just lending USD on finex, seems to indicate that the "credit bubble" has much room to grow.

Do you think that all that FIAT money that is 'parked' in Finex is good for the price of Bitcoin, since it is effectively being used to buy more bitcoin, or is it bad for the price. I'm trying to figure out the exact workinga and implications here

I think it doesn't make much of a difference for price, all it dose is dampens volatility as the potential  profit on any given trade is multiplied with leverage. ( thats the theory anyway )

if poeple are using leverage as a way to prop up the price so the rest of their holdings look more valuable we might have a problem...

[podyx]

Looking out for a cup and handle pattern to form on the 6h charts (should reach 620 sometime the first 8 days of august)

Could be the beginning of a bubble after that

[ensurance982]

Looking out for a cup and handle pattern to form on the 6h charts (should reach 620 sometime the first 8 days of august)

Could be the beginning of a bubble after that

Finally, some bullish predictions again around here! Do you think it is a textbook cup and handle or is this just a vague assumption?

[JorgeStolfi]

Looking out for a cup and handle pattern to form on the 6h charts (should reach 620 sometime the first 8 days of august)

Could be the beginning of a bubble after that

Isn't there an upside-down "cup and handle" from May/30 to Jun/26?

[Sandia]

The people offering USD for swaps are in the btc market.  When the price starts rising consistently, they will move their money into btc, and leverage will dry up on Bitfinex.  That is the main reason most swap offers are 2 days: if the price skyrockets, they don't want to miss out.

[adamstgBit]

The people offering USD for swaps are in the btc market.  When the price starts rising consistently, they will move their money into btc, and leverage will dry up on Bitfinex.  That is the main reason most swap offers are 2 days: if the price skyrockets, they don't want to miss out.

so we have 30Million of potential panic buys.

[ensurance982]

The people offering USD for swaps are in the btc market.  When the price starts rising consistently, they will move their money into btc, and leverage will dry up on Bitfinex.  That is the main reason most swap offers are 2 days: if the price skyrockets, they don't want to miss out.

Ah yeah, that makes sense! But for us other people who aren't currently invested there it doesn't make much of a difference since the same amount of BTC is being bought. The only difference would be, who actually bought them.

[Tzupy]

The people offering USD for swaps are in the btc market.  When the price starts rising consistently, they will move their money into btc, and leverage will dry up on Bitfinex.  That is the main reason most swap offers are 2 days: if the price skyrockets, they don't want to miss out.

I doubt that, it's more likely they want to be able to catch the bottom.

[wonkytonky]

also the ridiculous ROI poeple have reported for just lending USD on finex, seems to indicate that the "credit bubble" has much room to grow.

Do you think that all that FIAT money that is 'parked' in Finex is good for the price of Bitcoin, since it is effectively being used to buy more bitcoin, or is it bad for the price. I'm trying to figure out the exact workinga and implications here

Just free market at work here..

ppl dont want to miss out on the bubble so they are loaning or buying on margin.. in advance
(remember you can be in btc or in usd  to loan fiat to buy coins, so it's an potential accumulation of both sides of the pair, which is why it can be much much higher then what we are seeing right now..  there's 10k btc whales out there that can move their coins in and out anytime )

now if the loans are getting to expensive ppl close them..hence the selling . but meanwhile others taking new one's thinking the bubble is just around the corner.

I dont think the loan/lend  market is unhealthy at all..  thats why we are hanging around this price   and the loans can keep on going..  

Now to me the guys lending are taking usd  profits .. probably buying up slowly new coins with them .. at some point the market will have no more coins willing to be sold..  at that time
there will be less coins available (yes i think the ask walls are fake on bfx .. and put there with their usd equivalent without taking loans )   and the bubble can start.
because
a) many ppl had to pay swaps..  and lost fiat or part of their btc holding... .
b) the lenders are buying the coins right now slowly with profits
c) the big ask walls will suddenly go away
d) everybody will suddenly realise how they can't buy the same amount of coins anymore with the fiat they had..before due to lack of asks..  
e) bulls will trapp many bears ..

this is why i just buy and hold.. i lost to many already on this leverage/margin game..
smart money is taking coins and fiat from market.. until market has no choice anymore to just rally up.

i'm a perm bull since 400 so i might be bias .


 

[podyx]

Looking out for a cup and handle pattern to form on the 6h charts (should reach 620 sometime the first 8 days of august)

Could be the beginning of a bubble after that

Finally, some bullish predictions again around here! Do you think it is a textbook cup and handle or is this just a vague assumption?

Just an assumption

[podyx]

Looking out for a cup and handle pattern to form on the 6h charts (should reach 620 sometime the first 8 days of august)

Could be the beginning of a bubble after that

Isn't there an upside-down "cup and handle" from May/30 to Jun/26?

I would rather say may30-jun17/18 but I don't think upside down 'cup and handle' really means anything

[ensurance982]

also the ridiculous ROI poeple have reported for just lending USD on finex, seems to indicate that the "credit bubble" has much room to grow.

Do you think that all that FIAT money that is 'parked' in Finex is good for the price of Bitcoin, since it is effectively being used to buy more bitcoin, or is it bad for the price. I'm trying to figure out the exact workinga and implications here

Just free market at work here..

ppl dont want to miss out on the bubble so they are loaning or buying on margin.. in advance
(remember you can be in btc or in usd  to loan fiat to buy coins, so it's an potential accumulation of both sides of the pair, which is why it can be much much higher then what we are seeing right now..  there's 10k btc whales out there that can move their coins in and out anytime )

now if the loans are getting to expensive ppl close them..hence the selling . but meanwhile others taking new one's thinking the bubble is just around the corner.

I dont think the loan/lend  market is unhealthy at all..  thats why we are hanging around this price   and the loans can keep on going..  

Now to me the guys lending are taking usd  profits .. probably buying up slowly new coins with them .. at some point the market will have no more coins willing to be sold..  at that time
there will be less coins available (yes i think the ask walls are fake on bfx .. and put there with their usd equivalent without taking loans )   and the bubble can start.
because
a) many ppl had to pay swaps..  and lost fiat or part of their btc holding... .
b) the lenders are buying the coins right now slowly with profits
c) the big ask walls will suddenly go away
d) everybody will suddenly realise how they can't buy the same amount of coins anymore with the fiat they had..before due to lack of asks..  
e) bulls will trapp many bears ..

this is why i just buy and hold.. i lost to many already on this leverage/margin game..
smart money is taking coins and fiat from market.. until market has no choice anymore to just rally up.

i'm a perm bull since 400 so i might be bias .


 

Wow, a lengthy and interesting insight! Sounds quite bullish, but I'd like that outcome! Do you other guys concur or is there some fundamental flaw with that reasoning?

[InstantBitcoin]

Explanation

/^^^i predict bounce off 550ish  

[podyx]

Looking out for a cup and handle pattern to form on the 6h charts (should reach 620 sometime the first 8 days of august)

Could be the beginning of a bubble after that

Demonstration:

[ensurance982]

Explanation

/^^^i predict bounce off 550ish  

We should try and go for $572 again to form a quintuple bottom! That might just do the trick. No need to destroy that support and test another one!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxriIkGaY60

here comes the 99%

[Sandia]

Since I have been watching, USD swaps avaiable have always been 2.5-3.5M.  Today, it is $6M.
There is your bubble.

[adamstgBit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxriIkGaY60

here comes the 99%

this is going to be something else in the next bubble

1) poeple start "locking" there bitcoins in other more stable asstes
2) bitcoin reaches moon
3) everyone unlock there bitcoins on the moon because poeple want to see how there bitcoins bounce around on the moons low gravity
4) MARS!!!