Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

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[JayJuanGee]

Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again! 

How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT?  I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat).  I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.

To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.

Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news.  There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze.  Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.

When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load.  But not now. Bad time to sell.

BTW:  I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little....  continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.   

However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings...   My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then.  I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015...  Then have to go to plan B.... ..

don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?

The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015.  I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.

How the hell did you borrow $20K unsecured for less than 4%?  I assume it was unsecured and that you didn't take a HELOC to do it.

Whether you are overexposed or not is really up to your own judgment.  I think diversification is beautiful, myself.  I've learned hard lessons in my life.  If BTC runs, I'm happy.  If not, I'm still happy.  Of course, one thing that might make me different on this board is that I'm 46 years old.  It has given me time to screw up financially and recover at least a couple of times.  It has given me time to earn and accumulate assets.  I have a plan and a path to financial security that BTC can't shake, it can only hasten.

You are correct.  The loan was unsecure.  It is a credit card promotional rate, and it took about 3 days to secure. 

I could have borrowed more, but I figured that $20k was sufficient given my total situation.

I did several of these kinds of loans in the 2003-6 time-frame, and back then there were some that were completely 0%.  It is more difficult to find 0% these days.

[Junkbarman]

rant about BitLicense

BitLicense is a good example of just how fucked up everything is

Ben Lawsky said he would not over regulate, he said they would be very minimal rules even less then current AML laws. to make sure NOT to stifle innovation, he must of said "NOT stifle innovation" at least 21 million times. and now people are talking about how it might necessary to just not service NY customers, because of his proposed laws. lol.

I can only hope some of it gets rewriten, but still, I'd like to thank Mr Lawsky, for being such a prime example why no one should trust a word this goverment says. not a word, never.

USA, you've totaly let the whole world down. for a time we looked up to you, because you valued freedom as priceless, oh you still talk the talk.... but its all fucking lies.

SUCH A SHAME!

bitcoin is the new beacon of hope and freedom!

No offense, I think it's cool if you are, but you seem pretty high right now

[shmadz]

rant about BitLicense

BitLicense is a good example of just how fucked up everything is

Ben Lawsky said he would not over regulate, he said they would be very minimal rules even less then current AML laws. to make sure NOT to stifle innovation, he must of said "NOT stifle innovation" at least 21 million times. and now people are talking about how it might necessary to just not service NY customers, because of his proposed laws. lol.

I can only hope some of it gets rewriten, but still, I'd like to thank Mr Lawsky, for being such a prime example why no one should trust a word this goverment says. not a word, never.

USA, you've totaly let the whole world down. for a time we looked up to you, because you valued freedom as priceless, oh you still talk the talk.... but its all fucking lies.

SUCH A SHAME!

bitcoin is the new beacon of hope and freedom!

Answer is simple,

Antarctic ice shelf will slide into the ocean and we won't need to worry about new York legislation

[drez]

Finex is going to 555 within the next hour.  Lot off support there on the order-book,  but someone could pull the rug.

[tifozi]

rate, and it took about 3 days to secure. 

I could have borrowed more, but I figured that $20k was sufficient given my total situation.

I did several of these kinds of loans in the 2003-6 time-frame, and back then there were some that were completely 0%.  It is more difficult to find 0% these days.

Haha that was awesome. SD/FW used to be the go to place at the time to pump and churn 0% CCs. Ah the memories.

[adamstgBit]

rant about BitLicense

BitLicense is a good example of just how fucked up everything is

Ben Lawsky said he would not over regulate, he said they would be very minimal rules even less then current AML laws. to make sure NOT to stifle innovation, he must of said "NOT stifle innovation" at least 21 million times. and now people are talking about how it might necessary to just not service NY customers, because of his proposed laws. lol.

I can only hope some of it gets rewriten, but still, I'd like to thank Mr Lawsky, for being such a prime example why no one should trust a word this goverment says. not a word, never.

USA, you've totaly let the whole world down. for a time we looked up to you, because you valued freedom as priceless, oh you still talk the talk.... but its all fucking lies.

SUCH A SHAME!

bitcoin is the new beacon of hope and freedom!

Answer is simple,

Antarctic ice shelf will slide into the ocean and we won't need to worry about new York legislation

my mom always said the best answer would be to blow up the world.

[aminorex]

my mom always said the best answer would be to blow up the world.

It isn't inflatable.  I looked.  There's no nozzle.

[hyphymikey]

Anybody has a clue why the sell off seems worst on Stamp? All these leveraged longs are on Bitfinex or BTC-e?

Most manipulators reside in bitstamp. They are dragging the price down and Tim Draper is busy arbing the other exchanges down. So the manipulator dumps 1X on one exchange and buys 3X on the other exchanges for a cheaper price. Tim is the one getting played here.

[adamstgBit]

if only i could i would travel the world with a mage phone annoucing the good news to everyone i encourter

bitcoin must not fail. pretty sure everything hangs in the balance as this critical piece of technology evolves. just look around its so obvious!

opt the fuck out now!

BUY BUY BUY!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6KXgjLqSTg

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

Best part is we chased Tera away, and I swear she was calling for this before she left. Shout out to TERA

Tera said we would go down?

Yes, she did.

[vuduchyld]

Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again! 

How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT?  I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat).  I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.

To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.

Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news.  There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze.  Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.

When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load.  But not now. Bad time to sell.

BTW:  I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little....  continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.   

However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings...   My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then.  I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015...  Then have to go to plan B.... ..

don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?

The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015.  I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.

How the hell did you borrow $20K unsecured for less than 4%?  I assume it was unsecured and that you didn't take a HELOC to do it.

Whether you are overexposed or not is really up to your own judgment.  I think diversification is beautiful, myself.  I've learned hard lessons in my life.  If BTC runs, I'm happy.  If not, I'm still happy.  Of course, one thing that might make me different on this board is that I'm 46 years old.  It has given me time to screw up financially and recover at least a couple of times.  It has given me time to earn and accumulate assets.  I have a plan and a path to financial security that BTC can't shake, it can only hasten.

You are correct.  The loan was unsecure.  It is a credit card promotional rate, and it took about 3 days to secure. 

I could have borrowed more, but I figured that $20k was sufficient given my total situation.

I did several of these kinds of loans in the 2003-6 time-frame, and back then there were some that were completely 0%.  It is more difficult to find 0% these days.

Then I guess in your case, the question is whether or not you can generate a return in excess of the interest rate.  Sounds like you have in the past.  You also need an exit strategy to repay the loan...and a Plan B for repayment if the shit hits the fan. 

We're just probably at different places in our financial plan, because I personally would be reluctant to do it that way.  YMMV.  Not sure how well I'd sleep with that kind of exposure, in this case, to your credit.  I guess $20,000 might be a car, and you could keep a car longer and divert budgeted payments to that loan, worst case. 

At least you don't seem to be in a panic, so good on ya.

[mooncake]

With all the good news (Dell and Wikipedia accepting btc and Overstock extending btc acceptance internationally) and few bad news, there is no logical reason for the price to go south. The only cause I can think of is someone with substantial btc reserve is trying to push it down, possibly to buy it cheaply.

There are 2 ways to buy btc - in the market and OTC. The market price is known while OTC is not but OTC is usually tagged to the market price. If I want to buy cheap btc, I will cap the market price to buy huge amount through OTC. Who can do that? Institutions with huge pocket. Take note that this scenario can only last for the short term as the long term is ultimately determined by the overall demand and supply.

What does it mean for individual investors? Hodl!

[nioc]

this could be the reason for the drop in price the past few day?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6dboY9FtDo

"BitLicense"

I guess i missed this news when it came out.

so apparently Bitcoin is pretty hard to use to buy small things in NY ( you have to give allkinds of info to buy anything with bitcoin in NY? )

THAT proposed regulation is at the 45 day public comment period.  Accordingly, it is still only a proposal.

Doesn't NY limit the size soda drinks you can buy too? I don't see Coke and Pepsi stock dropping

That Soda restriction legislation news got a lot of press, too, but I think in the end that legislation did NOT withstand the test of time.

But, back to NY bitcoin legislation, it seems too preliminary to be having such a negative impact on the BTC price - even though rumors do have negative impacts.. .

I watched a few minutes of the video.  It was my understanding that the NY regs had no bearing whatsoever on people purchasing anything with there bitcoins.  The regs are for btc service companies such as exchanges.  The regs are for control of exchange of fiat to and from btc.  You are free to purchase anything with btc with no controls.

That guy was very disingenuous in order to promote his agends.  Needing to give all your info including photo ID to purchase groceries, yeah right LOL.

[cbeast]

if only i could i would travel the world with a mage phone annoucing the good news to everyone i encourter

bitcoin must not fail. pretty sure everything hangs in the balance as this critical piece of technology evolves. just look around its so obvious!

opt the fuck out now!

BUY BUY BUY!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6KXgjLqSTg

Fear not. Greed is Bitcoin's megaphone.

[JayJuanGee]

Everyone's just talking around here, let's put our money where our mouths are and buy some BTC in order to get this baby on course to the moon again! 

How would you know if posters here are buying or NOT?  I'm sure some posters here are buying (and of the belief that you should buy while the prices are going down... or at least attempting to buy most at the lowest price point - without missing the boat).  I bought some at $575, and I did NOT know whether prices would go lower, and then I will likely buy some more at $550 or so,,, and maybe at other points... depending on the passage of time and whether BTC prices go lower.

To be honest, I believe that a lot of people around here already maxxed out their allotment which they allow themselves to invest in BTC. Some may even be well above a reasonable level.

Yeah, that is the problem. Too many young and/or inexperienced participants in this market. I have to chuckle when most people talk about "fundamental analysis" here because it doesn't apply in the traditional sense. BTC is the epitome of a speculative play. It could go way up or way down. It moves independently of news.  There is no balance sheet and no history of earnings to analyze.  Yet people are over-invested and over-leveraged to the hilt.

When I go to bed tonight, I will sleep well. When I wake up, if the price is lower, I will buy more. I don't care if it is $540, $520, $400, or even lower. If people can't say the same, they should lighten their load.  But not now. Bad time to sell.

BTW:  I believe that I do NOT fit your definition of someone who is over-invested in BTC b/c I am still continuing to increase my holdings in BTC... little by little....  continuously with much of my spare BTC allocated fiat.   

However, in the interest of broader disclosure, I do have some leveraging of my bitcoin holdings...   My holdings are leveraged over about 16 months (until September 2015)... ... so the NOTE will be due then.  I do have a back up source of money to pay off the leveraged amount, in the event that BTC is NOT performing adequately by September 2015...  Then have to go to plan B.... ..

don't leverage if you have the funds to finance your buying yourself. why pay the interest if you don't have to?

The amount was $20k, and the interest was $800 for the whole period from about May 2014 to September 2015.  I think that it was a good idea, but I understand what you are saying regarding potential issues with leveraging.

How the hell did you borrow $20K unsecured for less than 4%?  I assume it was unsecured and that you didn't take a HELOC to do it.

Whether you are overexposed or not is really up to your own judgment.  I think diversification is beautiful, myself.  I've learned hard lessons in my life.  If BTC runs, I'm happy.  If not, I'm still happy.  Of course, one thing that might make me different on this board is that I'm 46 years old.  It has given me time to screw up financially and recover at least a couple of times.  It has given me time to earn and accumulate assets.  I have a plan and a path to financial security that BTC can't shake, it can only hasten.

You are correct.  The loan was unsecure.  It is a credit card promotional rate, and it took about 3 days to secure. 

I could have borrowed more, but I figured that $20k was sufficient given my total situation.

I did several of these kinds of loans in the 2003-6 time-frame, and back then there were some that were completely 0%.  It is more difficult to find 0% these days.

Then I guess in your case, the question is whether or not you can generate a return in excess of the interest rate.  Sounds like you have in the past.  You also need an exit strategy to repay the loan...and a Plan B for repayment if the shit hits the fan. 

We're just probably at different places in our financial plan, because I personally would be reluctant to do it that way.  YMMV.  Not sure how well I'd sleep with that kind of exposure, in this case, to your credit.  I guess $20,000 might be a car, and you could keep a car longer and divert budgeted payments to that loan, worst case. 

At least you don't seem to be in a panic, so good on ya.

In part, I am NOT too worried about paying back the $20k b/c I have considerable confidence in BTC appreciating by then... and also the terms of the loan is that I have to make about 1% payment per month on the loan, and therefore, by 9/15, the loan will be less than $18,500.  Additionally that $20K loan represents less than 1/4 of my total BTC portfolio holdings.

If BTC does NOT appreciate or sufficiently hold value, then I have some back up ideas that could cover my pay back amount of $18,500.

1) I have a index stock fund that is totally liquid that has a current value of more than $25k;

2) I have a non-liquid asset that is more or less guaranteed to generate an income of about $80k over that 16 month period;

3) I have a quasi-liquid asset that is currently valued at more than $400k that could be accessed in an emergency situation;

5) I have some business assets that are NOT very liquid that are valued at about $100k that could potentially generate some funds in an emergency situation;

6) I continuously monitor my various financial assets to ensure that they remain more or less on track - if they start to go off track, then I can strive to make adjustments; and,

7) I may have some other untapped resources that could possibly tap into  in order to generate some income... if i needed.   


ATM, I doubt that I need further preparations....  Therefore, I feel pretty confident about my having had leveraged about 1/4 of my current BTC holdings.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

we did it! price is stable!

[cbeast]

Bitcoins! Get your Bitcoins! Hot and fresh! Get them while you can!

[alani123]

Well, if the end of the month downtrend thing is true, I'd be intresting to see if the market stops being bearish wen the new month comes in.