Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[1714990353]

1714990353

[1714990353]

1714990353

[Pump3r]

Bitcoin rallied from $568 to $579 on Stamp - time to post trains yet?

we're down

0.64% for the past 24 hour
3.00% for the past 3 days
7.50% for the past 7 days
7.50% for the past 30 days
29.35% for the past 90 days

http://films.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/thomas_train_wreck.jpg

30%

Nothing to worry about. Only a few dollars. Just some weak hands. We're going to the moon as the new deadline expires. The big boys are getting in. Wallstreet can't wait to get in.

Train is looking surprised as your avatar. Shush, now can you can buy...   ...yeah, what you can buy with 1160$? Maybe a few of this toy trains.

[empowering]

Shorting in this market on margin =

How so?  Just short where you see resistance and buy when you see support.   Pattern over the last 2 weeks has followed TA to a tee.

Yeah I have been looking at the charts and sp/res lines... I had a good idea of where they have been for a while...

I guess if you are strict and have a good enough strategy in terms of stop loss and bank management , and you call it right at least 55% of the time, then using borrowed money to short the BTC market can be a good idea...  Day trading is risky (without even considering the counterparty risk element) as it is, risker on margin, and risker still in a market like the BTC market, if you have got good risk management and trading/banking strategy then the risk is more quantified and if that suits your risk profile and you are happy with it and you can achieve consistent results, then hey- who am I to say otherwise... though tight stop loss can give you control over your exposure,  you are also more likely to fall foul of the volatility and stop hunters too with a shallow stop... so if you are looking to catch a local top, but think it is going up medium-longer term in my view it is risky... if you are a full on bear then I can see how it would be something one would consider.. unless as stated you are in full control of your shit and you are trading the bounces, all good if you have got the strategy and accept the risk of being hunted or shaken out of your trade and can accept the losses.
 

[empowering]

Same thing again.

I reckon that Shrooms has built himself another bot, not a trading bot this time... but one that posts on here...

[nanobrain]

Bitcoin rallied from $568 to $579 on Stamp - time to post trains yet?

we're down

0.64% for the past 24 hour
3.00% for the past 3 days
7.50% for the past 7 days
7.50% for the past 30 days
29.35% for the past 90 days

30%

Nothing to worry about. Only a few dollars. Just some weak hands. We're going to the moon as the new deadline expires. The big boys are getting in. Wallstreet can't wait to get in.

But which Shroomskit is posting??

[hyphymikey]

People are selling like it's Apple stock in the 80s. They didn't know what they were doing either.

[adamstgBit]

i wonder if the launch of coinapult's locks yesterdays has anything to do with all this selling.

[kurious]

People are sitting here freaking out of a drop from 620 to 570. It is nothing.
Shit I remember in September-October, bitcoin was hovering around 120-135 all the time. I didn't even care about the price at that time as I wasn't trading, and I don't think anyone normal (not a trader) is worried about these price levels.

Bitcoin was a long term investment for me and I couldn't care about 20 dollars price swing and I am sure most people don't.
Anyone freaking out now is for sure overreacting.

not everyone is holding 500%+ profit coins with nothing to worry about.

Yes - after Gox ate some of my stash - my average coin cost went up to slightly above where we are now.

I am philosophical and of course I am HODLING - but watching that 100 plus bucks drop since June 2nd is not exactly fun!

Autumn last year I was in a lot of profit, now I'm back sneaking into the red - after logging in here every day without fail for so long. 

*Stoical smile*

[drez]

Shorting in this market on margin =
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5049fdefecad04a361000008/throwing-money.gif

How so?  Just short where you see resistance and buy when you see support.   Pattern over the last 2 weeks has followed TA to a tee.

Yeah I have been looking at the charts and sp/res lines... I had a good idea of where they have been for a while...

I guess if you are strict and have a good enough strategy in terms of stop loss and bank management , and you call it right at least 55% of the time, then using borrowed money to short the BTC market can be a good idea...  Day trading is risky (without even considering the counterpary risk element) as it is, risker on margin, and risker still in a market like the BTC market, if you have got good risk management and trading/banking strategy then the risk is more quantified and if that suits your risk profile and you are happy with it and you can achieve consistent results, then hey- who am I to say otherwise... though tight stop loss can give you control over your exposure,  you are also more likely to fall foul of the volatility and stop hunters too with a shallow stop... so if you are looking to catch a local top, but think it is going up medium-longer term in my view it is risky... if you are a full on bear then I can see how it would be something one would consider.. unless as stated you are in full control of your shit and you are trading the bounces, all good if you have got the strategy and accept the risk of being hunted or shaken out of your trade and can accept the losses.
 

The trick is not being greedy.  Take profits early and don't panic.  If you push it to the line you will get burned.   If you never push it all the way to the line  you may be late on the moonshot,  but you have been making money the whole time people were waiting for the moonshot.

[Dotto]

This user is currently ignored.

This user is currently ignored.

Zen  

[empowering]

Shorting in this market on margin =

How so?  Just short where you see resistance and buy when you see support.   Pattern over the last 2 weeks has followed TA to a tee.

Yeah I have been looking at the charts and sp/res lines... I had a good idea of where they have been for a while...

I guess if you are strict and have a good enough strategy in terms of stop loss and bank management , and you call it right at least 55% of the time, then using borrowed money to short the BTC market can be a good idea...  Day trading is risky (without even considering the counterpary risk element) as it is, risker on margin, and risker still in a market like the BTC market, if you have got good risk management and trading/banking strategy then the risk is more quantified and if that suits your risk profile and you are happy with it and you can achieve consistent results, then hey- who am I to say otherwise... though tight stop loss can give you control over your exposure,  you are also more likely to fall foul of the volatility and stop hunters too with a shallow stop... so if you are looking to catch a local top, but think it is going up medium-longer term in my view it is risky... if you are a full on bear then I can see how it would be something one would consider.. unless as stated you are in full control of your shit and you are trading the bounces, all good if you have got the strategy and accept the risk of being hunted or shaken out of your trade and can accept the losses.
 

The trick is not being greedy.  Take profits early and don't panic.  If you push it to the line you will get burned.   If you never push it all the way to the line  you may be late on the moonshot,  but you have been making money the whole time people were waiting for the moonshot.

Yup it is a personal thing... but not a lot get it right - hence baby throw money out window.

[Bittings]

Nothing to worry about. Only a few dollars. Just some weak hands. We're going to the moon as the new deadline expires. The big boys are getting in. Wallstreet can't wait to get in.

Shroomy, you come off as a very emotional/dramatic person. First you pissed off the uber-bears, now you've switched to bating the uber-bulls. Your basically making "enemies" of everyone on here. I fear for your emotional state, I don't think you can handle what you are doing to yourself.

[ShroomsKit]

Nothing to worry about. Only a few dollars. Just some weak hands. We're going to the moon as the new deadline expires. The big boys are getting in. Wallstreet can't wait to get in.

Shroomy, you come off as a very emotional/dramatic person. First you pissed off the uber-bears, now you've switched to bating the uber-bulls. Your basically making "enemies" of everyone on here. I fear for your emotional state, I don't think you can handle what you are doing to yourself.

Enemies? I think you take this internet thing a little bit too seriously.

[ensurance982]

30%

Nothing to worry about. Only a few dollars. Just some weak hands. We're going to the moon as the new deadline expires. The big boys are getting in. Wallstreet can't wait to get in.

Now I get it! Shroomy has been bearish all along. Not his postings have changed, but now he's actually speaking his mind rather than post positive things sarcastically!

[diebuntekuh]

Bitcoin rallied from $568 to $579 on Stamp - time to post trains yet?

we're down

0.64% for the past 24 hour
3.00% for the past 3 days
7.50% for the past 7 days
7.50% for the past 30 days
29.35% for the past 90 days

http://films.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/thomas_train_wreck.jpg

30%

Nothing to worry about. Only a few dollars. Just some weak hands. We're going to the moon as the new deadline expires. The big boys are getting in. Wallstreet can't wait to get in.

Don't worry   

http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2014/TCMDO-GDP7-14b.png

[justusranvier]

i wonder if the launch of coinapult's locks yesterdays has anything to do with all this selling.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-30/bitcoin-tax-free-transactions-face-test-at-top-eu-court.html

[notme]

Don't worry    

Sure, but percent change from 1 year prior is still well below historical norms.


If you want to look at the data in other ways, you can play with the view here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

Debt growth has slowed and remains slow.  Everything will look exponential if you look at it in nominal terms because the dollar has devalued exponentially.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[wingsfan23]

Don't worry   

Sure, but percent change from 1 year prior is still well below historical norms.

If you want to look at the data in other ways, you can play with the view here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TCMDO

Debt growth has slowed and remains slow.  Everything will look exponential if you look at it in nominal terms because the dollar has devalued exponentially.

Debt growth has continued and remains huge. Everything will look ok if you look at it from an exponentially devaluing dollar... but this isn't sustainable and it will end.

[JorgeStolfi]

Tomorrow GABI trust opens...

No, they open on Friday so we are going down till the weekend.

No, they are not buying.

It really isn't complicated: they will make money on the increase in the value of their fund (probs mainly long with some downside hedging). Hence it is in their interest for the price to be as low as possible on Friday. They have decades of commodity trading experience and deep funding. We are going down till the weekend.

If they are like SMBIT, a steadily rising price will make their fund more attractive to clients; but if they play strictly by the rules, the company's revenue will be only from fees (SM collects a few percent when the client buys SMBIT shares, when he liquidates those shares, and for every year that they keep his money).  So GABI's managing company will make some profit whatever happens to the price.

GABI's managing company will have a bigger profit margin if they don't play by the rules and speculate with clients' money: if they buy coins beforehand when they think that the price will rise and there will be more clients buying fund shares, or sell beforehand when they think it will go down and more clients will liquidate.

Creating such a fund is a great way to sell a large stash of old cheap bitcoins without immediately depressing the price.  SMBIT started last September with some 17'000 BTC of seed reserve, presumably "bought" over the counter from some founding investor. (Note the difference between "clients" who buy shares of the SMBIT fund, and "investors" who own stock of the company that manages the fund, which is either SM or some subsidiary.  Clients may gain or lose depending on what happens to the price of bitcoin, but investors will gain no matter what.)  Those seed coins were effectively sold to SMBIT clients over the next month, but are still locked out of the open market (together with the other 90'000 BTC that SM supposedly bought since then).

Does GABI have any features that make it better than SMBIT and PBP?  IF not, then I don't think it will have much immediate effect.  GABI will divide the future clientele with them, and I would not expect them to buy on exchanges at first.