adamstgBit
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June 11, 2013, 04:42:28 PM |
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We are in the "early/pricing" stage of an exponentially growing (later: S-growing) phenomenon. If everything goes as it has done in several bubbles before, the great bubble will form when 1-2% of the population had adopted the technology. For Bitcoin, this means about 50 million adapters that actually use bitcoin for something. This "something" has so far been lagging, though.
I withdrew my prediction for $300 for 2013, but this does not mean that I was sure it will not happen. In 2014 it will happen for sure. Or some 1.5-sigma event happens.
The great moves have been able to push the price up roughly by an order of magnitude. We need 4 such moves and the rest of this year is not long enough time. April-June 2014 is now my target.
Current price I would just buy as much as I can.
Are you expecting at least one 10-fold move this year, though? I think it is certainly possible for it not to happen (in which case this would be a lame year of anything between 500-3000% growth  ) but considering: 1. bitcoin adoption rates even now, 2. and the spread of information rate, 3. and the ease of developing Bitcoin-services, 4. and the superiority of bitcoin over all the competitors 5. and the upstartness of altcoins etc etc Everything points to me a violent upmove once the profit-taking consolidation ends. I agree!, I think consolidation has already ended at least at these low prices it has, so i'm predicting 180 within 2 weeks. I don't think we can make a new all time high so soon, but i do think we can get to 180 and stay in that range + - 10% I won't believe that until we are well over $130, and I will not be sure about that until $166 is broken. triggers will be triggered watch as my bold prediction turns out to be only a few days / $ off  |
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SGExodus
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June 11, 2013, 04:47:55 PM |
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Silkroad users need bitcoin to buy stuff, surge in bitcoin demand now  |
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zoinky
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June 11, 2013, 04:49:51 PM |
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Silkroad users need bitcoin to buy stuff, surge in bitcoin demand now Festival season. |
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Dalib
Full Member
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Activity: 462
Merit: 101
A Top Web 3 Gaming Layer2 Provider
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June 11, 2013, 04:50:28 PM |
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We are in the "early/pricing" stage of an exponentially growing (later: S-growing) phenomenon. If everything goes as it has done in several bubbles before, the great bubble will form when 1-2% of the population had adopted the technology. For Bitcoin, this means about 50 million adapters that actually use bitcoin for something. This "something" has so far been lagging, though.
I withdrew my prediction for $300 for 2013, but this does not mean that I was sure it will not happen. In 2014 it will happen for sure. Or some 1.5-sigma event happens.
The great moves have been able to push the price up roughly by an order of magnitude. We need 4 such moves and the rest of this year is not long enough time. April-June 2014 is now my target.
Current price I would just buy as much as I can.
Are you expecting at least one 10-fold move this year, though? I think it is certainly possible for it not to happen (in which case this would be a lame year of anything between 500-3000% growth ) but considering: 1. bitcoin adoption rates even now, 2. and the spread of information rate, 3. and the ease of developing Bitcoin-services, 4. and the superiority of bitcoin over all the competitors 5. and the upstartness of altcoins etc etc Everything points to me a violent upmove once the profit-taking consolidation ends. I agree!, I think consolidation has already ended at least at these low prices it has, so i'm predicting 180 within 2 weeks. I don't think we can make a new all time high so soon, but i do think we can get to 180 and stay in that range + - 10% It is true, that if we get over 110 and the price will continue to rise, we will see some early shopping with larger volumes of purchases. A lot of people selling at least part of Bitcoin and they have fiat on purchases for 30 - 50. If the trend turnover, they will have to quickly buy below the 120 that they did not get to train .. |
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phoenix1
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June 11, 2013, 04:59:43 PM |
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For me, it is not so much the actual price that is important ...
It has been so depressing reading this thread the last 2 days ... we had to go up, and on low volume as people were too scared to buy.
Now there is a bullish tone to some posts ... more of this is needed before we head lower again
Dump ... cry ... rally ... cheer ... rinse, repeat
Wait for the cheering ...
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ChartBuddy
Legendary
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Activity: 2170
Merit: 1776
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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June 11, 2013, 05:00:18 PM |
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Xrim
Newbie
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Activity: 49
Merit: 0
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June 11, 2013, 05:01:42 PM |
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We are in the "early/pricing" stage of an exponentially growing (later: S-growing) phenomenon. If everything goes as it has done in several bubbles before, the great bubble will form when 1-2% of the population had adopted the technology. For Bitcoin, this means about 50 million adapters that actually use bitcoin for something. This "something" has so far been lagging, though.
I withdrew my prediction for $300 for 2013, but this does not mean that I was sure it will not happen. In 2014 it will happen for sure. Or some 1.5-sigma event happens.
The great moves have been able to push the price up roughly by an order of magnitude. We need 4 such moves and the rest of this year is not long enough time. April-June 2014 is now my target.
Current price I would just buy as much as I can.
Are you expecting at least one 10-fold move this year, though? I think it is certainly possible for it not to happen (in which case this would be a lame year of anything between 500-3000% growth ) but considering: 1. bitcoin adoption rates even now, 2. and the spread of information rate, 3. and the ease of developing Bitcoin-services, 4. and the superiority of bitcoin over all the competitors 5. and the upstartness of altcoins etc etc Everything points to me a violent upmove once the profit-taking consolidation ends. |
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auto2nr1
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June 11, 2013, 05:12:37 PM |
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Price rising again with very low volume... painting the tape? Can we expect touching $110 today and $115 tomorrow? Damn manipulators  Let the bubble deflate completely! Anyway, i'm not buying it, sitting 100% on fiat until we go under $80, then i will start purchasing little by little. Oh man, you're going to be butthurt when it hits $120. On the other hand, I can see $120 then crash to $90 and below. If not, $180 in a month. Calm down boys. Before going to $180 it has to break $166. When $166 is broken, the sky is the limit. Why does it have to break $166.00? Why is that a significant break point? Thanks in advance. |
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rpietila
Donator
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Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
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June 11, 2013, 05:14:01 PM |
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Welcome back Rpietila!
Thank you, you actually moved my heart. The total communications ban (although I see it was necessary considering my health) was very difficult to take mentally and I picked up a habit of chain-smoking cigars (almost the only thing allowed for me to do during the reset my mind). I will hopefully not write too much or too weird things since this board is followed by my medical staff. Also please do not you call me King of Europe or anything. I have some notes, which I will be released in due time. Now just consider that I am still inside the ward, just first day trying to use computer. |
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telemaco
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June 11, 2013, 05:16:48 PM |
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We are in the "early/pricing" stage of an exponentially growing (later: S-growing) phenomenon. If everything goes as it has done in several bubbles before, the great bubble will form when 1-2% of the population had adopted the technology. For Bitcoin, this means about 50 million adapters that actually use bitcoin for something. This "something" has so far been lagging, though.
I withdrew my prediction for $300 for 2013, but this does not mean that I was sure it will not happen. In 2014 it will happen for sure. Or some 1.5-sigma event happens.
The great moves have been able to push the price up roughly by an order of magnitude. We need 4 such moves and the rest of this year is not long enough time. April-June 2014 is now my target.
Current price I would just buy as much as I can.
Are you expecting at least one 10-fold move this year, though? I think it is certainly possible for it not to happen (in which case this would be a lame year of anything between 500-3000% growth ) but considering: 1. bitcoin adoption rates even now, 2. and the spread of information rate, 3. and the ease of developing Bitcoin-services, 4. and the superiority of bitcoin over all the competitors 5. and the upstartness of altcoins etc etc Everything points to me a violent upmove once the profit-taking consolidation ends. Yes ! Welcome back. We missed your posts |
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MAbtc
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June 11, 2013, 05:17:05 PM |
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Price rising again with very low volume... painting the tape? Can we expect touching $110 today and $115 tomorrow? Damn manipulators Let the bubble deflate completely! Anyway, i'm not buying it, sitting 100% on fiat until we go under $80, then i will start purchasing little by little. Oh man, you're going to be butthurt when it hits $120. On the other hand, I can see $120 then crash to $90 and below. If not, $180 in a month. Calm down boys. Before going to $180 it has to break $166. When $166 is broken, the sky is the limit. Why does it have to break $166.00? Why is that a significant break point? Thanks in advance. 166 was the high after 266. Also roughly matches the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. So it is an important support/resistance point. |
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adamstgBit
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
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June 11, 2013, 05:21:06 PM |
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Price rising again with very low volume... painting the tape? Can we expect touching $110 today and $115 tomorrow? Damn manipulators Let the bubble deflate completely! Anyway, i'm not buying it, sitting 100% on fiat until we go under $80, then i will start purchasing little by little. Oh man, you're going to be butthurt when it hits $120. On the other hand, I can see $120 then crash to $90 and below. If not, $180 in a month. Calm down boys. Before going to $180 it has to break $166. When $166 is broken, the sky is the limit. Why does it have to break $166.00? Why is that a significant break point? Thanks in advance. 166 was the high after 266. Also roughly matches the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. So it is an important support/resistance point. I really don't think skys the limit, 266 is the limit, and 180 is the target, i expect to see the 150-170 trading range hold for a long long time, once we've corrected back up. |
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wonkytonky
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June 11, 2013, 05:23:56 PM |
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Price rising again with very low volume... painting the tape? Can we expect touching $110 today and $115 tomorrow? Damn manipulators Let the bubble deflate completely! Anyway, i'm not buying it, sitting 100% on fiat until we go under $80, then i will start purchasing little by little. Oh man, you're going to be butthurt when it hits $120. On the other hand, I can see $120 then crash to $90 and below. If not, $180 in a month. Calm down boys. Before going to $180 it has to break $166. When $166 is broken, the sky is the limit. Why does it have to break $166.00? Why is that a significant break point? Thanks in advance. 166 was the high after 266. Also roughly matches the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. So it is an important support/resistance point. I really don't think skys the limit, 266 is the limit, and 180 is the target, i expect to see the 150-170 trading range hold for a long long time, once we've corrected back up. too much bullish talk here.. someone wants high prices to short .. again .. i'm just trolling... or am I ? |
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klee
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Activity: 1498
Merit: 1000
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June 11, 2013, 05:27:39 PM |
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Silkroad users need bitcoin to buy stuff, surge in bitcoin demand now Festival season. So true! |
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adamstgBit
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
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June 11, 2013, 05:28:21 PM |
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Price rising again with very low volume... painting the tape? Can we expect touching $110 today and $115 tomorrow? Damn manipulators Let the bubble deflate completely! Anyway, i'm not buying it, sitting 100% on fiat until we go under $80, then i will start purchasing little by little. Oh man, you're going to be butthurt when it hits $120. On the other hand, I can see $120 then crash to $90 and below. If not, $180 in a month. Calm down boys. Before going to $180 it has to break $166. When $166 is broken, the sky is the limit. Why does it have to break $166.00? Why is that a significant break point? Thanks in advance. 166 was the high after 266. Also roughly matches the 0.618 Fibonacci ratio. So it is an important support/resistance point. I really don't think skys the limit, 266 is the limit, and 180 is the target, i expect to see the 150-170 trading range hold for a long long time, once we've corrected back up. too much bullish talk here.. someone wants high prices to short .. again .. i'm just trolling... or am I ? shorting once we get there will be declaring you do not believe bitcoin will grow over the next few years, a stupid bet? thats not going to stop poeple from betting, this is why it will have such a big trading range one day 180 the next 140, 150, 140, 170, 160 and so on, until FED pulls out of the US markets ( or somthing to that effect ), at which point the sky truly is the limit  |
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rezurect
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June 11, 2013, 05:28:41 PM |
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offtopic: btc e down?
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Frozenlock
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June 11, 2013, 05:35:10 PM |
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My adamstgBit-o-meter is telling me it's time to short.  |
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Coinseeker
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June 11, 2013, 05:35:27 PM |
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Isn't that gambling, defined? Some day traders do more than simply watch the price & ignore past performance etc.
Maybe it would be if the market had any volume, but since mid April/early May the market moves exclusively at the whims of traders who have 6 or 7 figures. There's little to no combined influence from a multitude of smaller players to offset the manipulation attempts of traders with huge amounts of fiat on the exchanges. People with a few thousand or a few tens of thousands of dollars can't move the market. Their combined activity can, but as individuals, they can't. So when volume is low and the price just sits there, whether a trade is profitable or not comes down to what move the whales make, because there's no market momentum because nobody wants to trade when the price is above 100 unless it's rippling from a large move. You can't tell what move one or two people with that much manipulative ability are going to make via TA. The run we just went through to 135 after the 60-166-79 correction, once it rallied above 105ish, only happened because one or a few people would show up in the early morning or the middle of the night and shove the market up with a 5,000BTC buy, let the market settle, and then do it again the next day or the day after that. The moves raised the price because speculators decided to take a shot on riding the train, that kind of a move doesn't incite a panic sell, and the other whales won't dump against you because it's more profitable to wait for the combined momentum of smaller players who are buying to fizzle out before dumping. It is pretty much exactly what has been happening since the dumps below 120 last week as well. The market doesn't have confidence in the price above $100, period. The only reason it's been floating here since the post-166 correction is because the market is entirely speculation and bots. Bots give the illusion that trades are happening and the market is moving upward and a whale comes behind that illusion (probably because it's his bot) and plays against it. Low volume is very dangerous. If people thought the price was profitable we'd see the kind of volume you see between 80-90-100. People are only buying right now because they're short term speculating, exchanging B for fiat for their business, or buying and holding and not giving a fuck about what happens on smaller time frames. The price isn't dropping because a few people with 20 or 200B simply can't affect market depth. And even when they all sell at once and do affect market depth, you still get phenomena like the other day when someone showed up and bought 15kB from 101 to 111. Under this kind of circumstance a hard, downward, long term correction is inevitable and it's only a question of how to make money in the interim. Manipulation like this is actually very damaging to the market because when the correction does come and it makes the news, it makes a lot of the potential newcomers to Bitcoin feel the whole system is a fraudulent scam. You only saw the massive swing from doubles to 250+ because of a huge influx of new players. If that phenomenon never happens again, you can completely forget about ever seeing $200B again, let alone higher. +1 Seems greedy bitcoiners are a bigger threat than the USG. Hate to say it, but this is the reason regulations exists. You don't have to be a market pro to understand that. You only have to know a little bit of history. "And those who do not know their history, are doomed to repeat it." A currency simply can not survive under these conditions. |
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Frozenlock
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June 11, 2013, 05:38:52 PM |
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If one thing, history should show that these regulations always end up hurting the small guy.
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ChartBuddy
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Activity: 2170
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June 11, 2013, 06:00:24 PM |
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Poll
