Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

Everyone who holds anything else as investment except bitcoins has diversified to the detriment of their financial interest.

well done. Hope you have managed to keep hold of most of them.

Yes, I haven given away about 2,000,000 and 1,000,000 has been stolen but I still have some.

Sorry for usage of millibitcoin

1,000,000 mBTC stolen is quite a sum. $109k at today's exchange rate, probably MUCH more in the future. Do you know how that happened? Any hints of who could be the thief?

Maybe there is a chance to recoup them.

"Giving away" 2,000,000 mBTC sounds pretty crazy too.

Anyway, keep on going with the mBTC thing, sooner or later we will need to start using that for sure. Hope MtGoxfinally starts using that denomination, the psychological factor is important for people, and buying "one coin" for +$100 sounds "too expensive" for the average Joe, even if it's nonsense.

[1715081655]

1715081655

[Its About Sharing]

Here is the depth I mentioned above. It looks good within that range and gets a bit worse out of it, but nothing outside of what has been the norm.

[Rampion]

Asks piling up all the way to $110. The sellers will become nervous sooner or later, there are too many coins till $110 and no buying pressure whatsoever. Someone that bought from $100 to $105 has to decide wether to sell at a profit at $108 or panic sell and probably lose money if a seller get tired to wait and dumps as few coins as 700-800, pushing the price down.

I just don't see it in the market depth on Gox. Where are you getting your numbers from?

For example, just looking at the sum of buys and sells within $8 of the current price of 109, I see Asks at 10k and bids at 9k. That has been getting better the last few days.

Now, I'm not saying we don't go down, but that is what the depth is saying (and easily manipulatable I know).

Another thing to consider, on many of our minds, is that 15k order on Sunday that stopped the downward movement. I wonder who would do that as they could have bought in slower and gotten a better price.
Is it going too far to say a lower price of Bitcoin would increase adoption? There has been evidence that a higher price keeps people away. Funny, perhaps some people want to keep the price up for
that reason. We don't know, but something to consider.

Right now we have 9100 coins on the ask side to reach $116.5, and 7925 on the bid say to go to $102.

It's true that the depth is slowly improving, but still volume is too low. I'm not discarding a mini-rally, if $110 is broken there will be some panic buys, but IMO those will be short-term moves. Mid term, I'm seeing a bear market, hinted by the crash to $88 this weeked, which will be confirmed if we crash again and $79 is broken on the downside.

[Its About Sharing]

My advice for everybody but the most astute daytraders now:

Buy as many bitcoins as you can, regardless of the price or timing. The price and timing will be secondary as the next upleg commences, and commences it will, once there is anything that you can do with bitcoins.

I bought 2,000,000mBTC in September-October 2012. At times I was down 15%. Do you think that now I would give a thought about the exact price or timing? I would, had I not bought the coins.

Everyone who holds anything else as investment except bitcoins has diversified to the detriment of their financial interest.

Bad advice.  "...once there is anything that you can do with Bitcoins."  

Which could be never and that's looking more likely as more businesses snub Bitcoin for other options or even their own options.

I think similar things were said in the early days of the internet. We are 4 years into the worlds largest social experiment and you know the answer?

Businesses want to make money. You said you are a capitalist, right. Well, if you could drop visa, mastercard, etc. and increase some of your sales profits by 2%-4%, why would you "snub" that?

From a purely economical point of view (no worries about government intervention), Bitcoin is GREAT for business. Adoption is another matter...

[Rampion]

Well, only 682 coins to reach $110. It looks it will happen. Who's panic buying in here, apart from Adam and everybody who's already all-in?

[lucas.sev]

Seems to me like some one is using this desperately thin volume to try and squeeze it up past there to hopefully provoke some decent buying volume on a breakout
My guess, they want to sell into that
I think we will find out shortly ...

+1, remember about the action that brought us here from 95.

[Its About Sharing]

Asks piling up all the way to $110. The sellers will become nervous sooner or later, there are too many coins till $110 and no buying pressure whatsoever. Someone that bought from $100 to $105 has to decide wether to sell at a profit at $108 or panic sell and probably lose money if a seller get tired to wait and dumps as few coins as 700-800, pushing the price down.

I just don't see it in the market depth on Gox. Where are you getting your numbers from?

For example, just looking at the sum of buys and sells within $8 of the current price of 109, I see Asks at 10k and bids at 9k. That has been getting better the last few days.

Now, I'm not saying we don't go down, but that is what the depth is saying (and easily manipulatable I know).

Another thing to consider, on many of our minds, is that 15k order on Sunday that stopped the downward movement. I wonder who would do that as they could have bought in slower and gotten a better price.
Is it going too far to say a lower price of Bitcoin would increase adoption? There has been evidence that a higher price keeps people away. Funny, perhaps some people want to keep the price up for
that reason. We don't know, but something to consider.

Right now we have 9100 coins on the ask side to reach $116.5, and 7925 on the bid say to go to $102.

It's true that the depth is slowly improving, but still volume is too low. I'm not discarding a mini-rally, if $110 is broken there will be some panic buys, but IMO those will be short-term moves. Mid term, I'm seeing a bear market, hinted by the crash to $88 this weeked, which will be confirmed if we crash again and $79 is broken on the downside.

You have definitely help me to put some "protection" up due to a price drop. The volume has always bothered me.

But what do you (and others) make of that last statement? I am still scratching my head at why that guy bought so much on drop at market, and the slippage was HUGE. It was poor business, if that is what it was.

Another thing to consider, on many of our minds, is that 15k order on Sunday that stopped the downward movement. I wonder who would do that as they could have bought in slower and gotten a better price.
Is it going too far to say a lower price of Bitcoin would increase adoption? There has been evidence that a higher price keeps people away. Funny, perhaps some people want to keep the price up for
that reason. We don't know, but something to consider.

[rpietila]

BTC = Black Swan. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.

Is this the same as "six-sigma" (meaning extremely improbable event that has great impact because its extreme improbability)?

They use "six sigma" also in manufacturing as error level. If a probability of every erroneous task is 6-sigma, the final product is quite unlikely to be defective no matter how complex it is (automobile, etc.)

My IQ is 2.9-sigma, so it is very high (Mensa level is 2.0), but in itself it is meaningless because there are 100-thousands of as intelligent people around.

[Its About Sharing]

Seems to me like some one is using this desperately thin volume to try and squeeze it up past there to hopefully provoke some decent buying volume on a breakout
My guess, they want to sell into that
I think we will find out shortly ...

+1, remember about the action that brought us here from 95.

The scariest thing about the BTC market is how EASILY it can be manipulated. I wonder if there are significant forces out there that want the price to go up, stay constant or go down... and why?

[ShroomsKit]

BTC = Black Swan. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.

Is this the same as "six-sigma" (meaning extremely improbable event that has great impact because its extreme improbability)?

They use "six sigma" also in manufacturing as error level. If a probability of every erroneous task is 6-sigma, the final product is quite unlikely to be defective no matter how complex it is (automobile, etc.)

My IQ is 2.9-sigma, so it is very high (Mensa level is 2.0), but in itself it is meaningless because there are 100-thousands of as intelligent people around.

So nice to have you back! As i said before you are one of the best trolls i've seen in ages. I totally enjoy your trolling. And that doesn't happen a lot. The effort you put into the character is quite amazing. Also that you can keep it up this long! Respect! A lot of trolls could learn from you.

[billington.mark]

110 about to fall

[Its About Sharing]

BTC = Black Swan. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs.

Is this the same as "six-sigma" (meaning extremely improbable event that has great impact because its extreme improbability)?

They use "six sigma" also in manufacturing as error level. If a probability of every erroneous task is 6-sigma, the final product is quite unlikely to be defective no matter how complex it is (automobile, etc.)

My IQ is 2.9-sigma, so it is very high (Mensa level is 2.0), but in itself it is meaningless because there are 100-thousands of as intelligent people around.

I saw you mention the sigma thing yesterday and looked it up but still don't really understand it. Basically, a simple definition of a Black Swan is something that comes along (e.g. internet) that most people just don't see coming. It is hard to predict to most. But once it gets a foothold most people look at it and say "Yeah, that was easy to see coming" - as it just makes so much sense - like the internet and like what Bitcoin can and is. I chopped that definition up, but think you get the point.

Regarding a high IQ, not to knock it, but we worship it in the West because it can help to make one a lot of money. But in the grand scheme of things, I would say something more in the direction of emotional intelligence, is more a sign of intelligence. Intelligence should involve many facets, - smarts, compassion, etc. Things that prolong the species and help us to better get along. As it is, IQ tests are self serving to a capitalistic mentality. I'm not knocking you, I love reading your posts, but I'm just saying... To measure a Human Being based on an IQ test, well it's sort of the antithesis of how one should be measured...

[lucas.sev]

So.... we touched 110 and nothing happened?

[rpietila]

Buy as many bitcoins as you can, until once there is anything that you can do with bitcoins (and the price has risen dramatically as the impact)

Which could be never and that's looking more likely as more businesses snub Bitcoin for other options or even their own options.

I think similar things were said in the early days of the internet. We are 4 years into the worlds largest social experiment and you know the answer?

Businesses want to make money. You said you are a capitalist, right. Well, if you could drop visa, mastercard, etc. and increase some of your sales profits by 2%-4%, why would you "snub" that?

From a purely economical point of view (no worries about government intervention), Bitcoin is GREAT for business. Adoption is another matter...

Coinseeker is right. There is a probability that:
- crypto will lose the battle to fiat
- BTC will lose in the battle between cryptos.

There is some small ideas and big ideas to enforce BTC, though. We already gave Bitcointip in Haikko, and I am likely extending it to Punavuori (an area in the center part of Helsinki where about 5000-10000 people live). We will dole out free millibitcoins as bills, and inform all the restaurants there that if they serve their clients well, they will receive tips (because tips are already there in the hands of their clientele - we have give them out for free to all the inhabitants )

Then the restaurants can cash them in for euros, or redeem them for actual bitcoins. Or keep them in circulation as bitcoin-denominated change.

My idea is to start with 5, 10, 20 so very small notes that we give out for free and prepare that many do not care. But some will, and that's going to be fun

[rpietila]

My IQ is 2.9-sigma, so it is very high (Mensa level is 2.0), but in itself it is meaningless because there are 100-thousands of as intelligent people around.

IQ is a hot potato so let's say my shoe size is -1.6 sigma (so small that it's hard to find) and my length is -1.0 sigma (quite short).

OK, all?

[billington.mark]

So.... we touched 110 and nothing happened?

We just broke through, keep up!

[phoenix1]

My IQ is 2.9-sigma, so it is very high (Mensa level is 2.0), but in itself it is meaningless because there are 100-thousands of as intelligent people around.

IQ is a hot potato so let's say my shoe size is -1.6 sigma (so small that it's hard to find) and my length is -1.0 sigma (quite short).

OK, all?

I was not criticising you either Risto  

[Jozzaboy]

Broke 110 again, inb4 panic purchasing.

[Miz4r]

Still no volume. Perhaps the volume will come along if it keeps slowly grinding along towards 115 but I still don't trust this 'rally' and will keep watching from the sidelines.

[ChartBuddy]