Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Well, hopefully you will come to realize that BTC is a decent investment before it is too late and  you will be chasing the train b/c you seem to be holding back from investing in BTC  because you seem to believe that the last 9 months are reflective or indicative of what is going to continue to happen with BTC prices in the next 9 months... ..

Anyhow if you do NOT get on board the BTC train, then that remains your choice.. and good luck to you... and hopefully you will have NO regrets with your currently pessimistic state regarding BTC   

You've misinterpreted what I said. I am on board... I have a small amount of BTC, I would have more but that would mean creeping into 'can't afford to lose' territory. I'm actually quietly confident we've reached the bottom, or are close to it.

With that said I still wouldn't proclaim it's been a good year for BTC.

Anyway, no big deal...moving on.

Your response pretty much reinforces that what I said was a fair response to you.  I believe that you are likely too much focusing on this recent downward trend... as if that is the be all end all for bitcoin.  Surely, BTC prices have gone largely down since end of November beginning of December 2013, yet it seems to have been an otherwise very decent year for bitcoin in terms of spreading around the world and adoption, and infrastructure building and liquidity options and really governments seem to be somewhat less hostile than I had anticipated (I still expect that they are hostile, but less than what I had anticipated going into this year.

The concept of NOT investing more than you can lose has been discussed in various recent threads on this forum.. and surely it can be a bit of a misdirection if it causes people to invest less than what would be a good investment to financially profit when the price does seem inevitable to go up...

So, if you only bought a few BTC, you may NOT profit very well as compared to investing $10 or $20k... and surely each of us has to decide our investment allocations based on our calculations of our personal financial situation, our risk tolerances, our future earning capacity and our own calculations of the probabilities of BTC prices going up or down.


Personally, in the last 9 months, I have increased my BTC holdings considerably, which adds up to a pretty sizeable amount of my investment into BTC, but the total of my apportionment of my BTC holdings still remains at less than 10% of my total quasi-liquid investment assets... Yes I have considered investing higher than 10% into BTC ... but I have some logistical and timing issues.. and just I have concerns about effective and efficient ways to move money out of one investment vehicle into another while accounting for various transaction costs and also considering various tax implications.

Whether I misread your exact details or NOT, I stand my earlier comment regarding the impression that I received from your earlier post, yet ultimately, we need NOT share the same viewpoint or prediction of BTC prices in order to be able to bat around various investment ideas and even communicate our thoughts on what we consider sound ways to move forward in our allocation of resources into BTC directly or into BTC related ventures.

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[edwardspitz]

Bulltrap or reversal, that is the question?

Edit: At least a good bounce to 450-480$ seems very likely.

I'm seeing a ghost pattern and wall movements. This could be a trap  

[Pala_00]

Bulltrap or reversal, that is the question?

Edit: At least a good bounce to 450-480$ seems very likely.

I'm seeing a ghost pattern and wall movements. This could be a trap  

[edwardspitz]

Bulltrap or reversal, that is the question?

Edit: At least a good bounce to 450-480$ seems very likely.

I'm seeing a ghost pattern and wall movements. This could be a trap  

idk, maybe we are all good + I worry too much  Good support @ 420 on Stamp. I just went away for a second though.

[AirFlame]

Ok it go up now if it get over $428 we will have a new bottom for now If not it will fall again. to 390-400

[RoadStress]

Up!

I have a question for people who bought in October/December last year and sold on this dip: How is this dip any different from the one on 17 December when the exchange rate was ~380$? Why sell now and not back then? What about the $343 dip in April? What's different now?

[Ultros]

I hope that momentum push us high enough to test that wall @ 464. Not like I don't think we won't drop back no matter what, but I want to know if it's real once and for all.

[JayJuanGee]

So, it sounds as if through the passage of time you made some profits with your BTC, but frequently you cashed out early... Accordingly, frequently, you were NOT very well invested in BTC during various BTC price spikes.

So, currently, what is your approximate BTC holdings and what is your approximate price per BTC... including various administrative/transaction costs??

Absolutely. I just got out too early.

I could have bought that snowboard with other funds, but I lost faith in Bitcoin and decided that I should just sell all of what I had and at least get something out of the exercise.
 
Then I forgot about Bitcoin (had a normal life you might say) until about halfway into the run up to the ~$250 peak - I started up mining using my own electricity and also sent some fiat to Gox around the time it went through $100 for the first time. So that's when I first started actually incurring any costs.

Of the coins I purchased from exchanges, my avg buy price is over $400 AUD. I have another, much fatter, wallet with coins from alt trading/mining, gambling winnings, etc that really only cost me my time. I also bought a BTC mining contract from CloudHashing that (with prices this low) has not returned on the initial investment.

Surely each of us has his/her own inclinations when it comes to keeping track of financial specifics, and I personally created an excel spreadsheet to keep track of a large number of variables in respect to each BTC that I transact (buy, sell or trade), that way I have a running tally on my price per BTC for each transaction and also overall running average prices per BTC on any particular date.   Surely, if you have acquired some BTC (even a majority of BTC) for zero or NO costs, then that is going to considerably bring down your average cost per BTC.

I am NOT mining, but surely if I were mining, I would add into my excel spreadsheet any costs associated with mining, including electricity costs, and/or machinery and/or accessories costs. 

So far, whenever I have purchased anything with BTC, I have kept track of those purchases within my excel spreadsheet, but I have also engaged in purchasing behavior in order to preserve the size of my BTC holdings (in other words, so far, due to my BTC replacement practice, my BTC purchases have NOT caused my BTC holdings' quantity to go down.. NOT so far).

[akujin]

wow.. I just poop in the toilet for an hour and stamp hits 427  

[Buffer Overflow]

wow.. I just poop in the toilet for an hour and stamp hits 427  

An hour? You need more fibre in your diet.

[Pala_00]

wow.. I just poop in the toilet for an hour and stamp hits 427  

An hour? You need more fibre in your diet.

jesus...

[akujin]

wow.. I just poop in the toilet for an hour and stamp hits 427  

An hour? You need more fibre in your diet.

[JayJuanGee]

Up!

I have a question for people who bought in October/December last year and sold on this dip: How is this dip any different from the one on 17 December when the exchange rate was ~380$? Why sell now and not back then? What about the $343 dip in April? What's different now?

Your scenario is NOT very clear...

But you are suggesting people who bought at the high in the $1,100 territory selling NOW, but NOT selling on December 17. 

I doubt that there are very many people who meet that narrow category who may have done nothing between then and NOW and just HODLed for 9 months then panicked... sounds a little ridiculous and like you are just trolling or attempting to engage in unnecessary provocative and unproductive drama regarding answers that you could easily figure out yourself with a little bit of attempt at empathizing (by mentally putting yourself in those kinds of shoes).

[magicmexican]

You bite BTC and BTC bites back my man, dayum


Wasnt even 350 on btc-e, what is this bullish nonsense?

[RoadStress]

Up!

I have a question for people who bought in October/December last year and sold on this dip: How is this dip any different from the one on 17 December when the exchange rate was ~380$? Why sell now and not back then? What about the $343 dip in April? What's different now?

Your scenario is NOT very clear...

But you are suggesting people who bought at the high in the $1,100 territory selling NOW, but NOT selling on December 17. 

I doubt that there are very many people who meet that narrow category who may have done nothing between then and NOW and just HODLed for 9 months then panicked... sounds a little ridiculous and like you are just trolling or attempting to engage in unnecessary provocative and unproductive drama regarding answers that you could easily figure out yourself with a little bit of attempt at empathizing (by mentally putting yourself in those kinds of shoes).

Yes you got it. I don't think that this scenario is so narrow. Here is another one. Anyone that bought between 22 December and 20 March and hasn't sold on the big April dip, but sold it at any other point after April. There must be some...

[simmo77]

Surely each of us has his/her own inclinations when it comes to keeping track of financial specifics, and I personally created an excel spreadsheet to keep track of a large number of variables in respect to each BTC that I transact (buy, sell or trade), that way I have a running tally on my price per BTC for each transaction and also overall running average prices per BTC on any particular date.   Surely, if you have acquired some BTC (even a majority of BTC) for zero or NO costs, then that is going to considerably bring down your average cost per BTC.

I am NOT mining, but surely if I were mining, I would add into my excel spreadsheet any costs associated with mining, including electricity costs, and/or machinery and/or accessories costs.  

So far, whenever I have purchased anything with BTC, I have kept track of those purchases within my excel spreadsheet, but I have also engaged in purchasing behavior in order to preserve the size of my BTC holdings (in other words, so far, due to my BTC replacement practice, my BTC purchases have NOT caused my BTC holdings' quantity to go down.. NOT so far).

Yeah I've got a spreadsheet as well (but probably less free time than you   it really needs to be updated) - I know where I'm at, and at what price I will *actually* start worrying.


For me, the brown underpants stay in the drawer until we see the low 200s.

[edwardspitz]

What I'm currently looking at:



Ghost (H&S) pattern from Stamp is not confirmed. Looking at Bitfinex volume is quite high on the right side (compared to Stamp). Watch out for disappearing bid-support and dumping.

[AirFlame]

What I'm currently looking at:



Ghost (H&S) pattern from Stamp is not confirmed. Looking at Bitfinex volume is quite high on the right side (compared to Stamp). Watch out for disappearing bid-support and dumping.

Nice stats what Program You use ?

[NotLambchop]

Gentlemen!  Rocketry?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation