Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotLambchop]

... The market price appears to be have been dictated much more by speculative demand than fundamentals for a long time now...

For a currency unbacked by a state or a closed economy, talking about "fundamentals" is horseshit.

So we don't get into an argument on semantics here: I was trying to make a simplification to the effect that there is some amount of Bitcoin usage apart from speculation. I think that's what people mostly refer to when talking about fundamentals - developments that affect non-speculative use. The point is, we don't know what the price of BTC would be in a philosophical la-la land where price is driven solely by non-speculative uses, so we can't argue that an increase in such uses must lead to a proportional increase in BTC price.

You're right, it's just that I find it hard to separate "speculative" from "intrinsic" (in the economics sense of the word) value, when it comes to money.

[1714604023]

1714604023

[jofus87]

New China ban looming?
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/great-firewall-of-china-blocks-bitcointalk-org/

fml , again ? 

Posting from Beijing. They pretty much make it imperative to get a VPN out here. Anyone who is into Bitcoin out here most likely has one. Carry on.

[inca]

I am thinking i might liquidate some of my share portfolio and buy another 100 coins or so at this price or lower. I am a long term bull and tend to ignore the short term technicals. Unless 'bitcoin is finished' then any price around here or lower is a great entry. I originally bought in march april 2013 and have added on dips this year. Someone talk me out of it!

[adamstgBit]

China's "Great" firewall will one day fall.

[NotLambchop]

I am thinking i might liquidate some of my share portfolio and buy another 100 coins ... Someone talk me out of it!

Why?  As a Bitcoiner, I applaud you.  The more you buy, the more my coin's worth

[adamstgBit]

I am thinking i might liquidate some of my share portfolio and buy another 100 coins or so at this price or lower. I am a long term bull and tend to ignore the short term technicals. Unless 'bitcoin is finished' then any price around here or lower is a great entry. I originally bought in march april 2013 and have added on dips this year. Someone talk me out of it!

don't you have enough coins?

maybe you want to wait for price to go full retard b4 buying?

[inca]

I am thinking i might liquidate some of my share portfolio and buy another 100 coins or so at this price or lower. I am a long term bull and tend to ignore the short term technicals. Unless 'bitcoin is finished' then any price around here or lower is a great entry. I originally bought in march april 2013 and have added on dips this year. Someone talk me out of it!

don't you have enough coins?

maybe you want to wait for price to go full retard b4 buying?

It wouldn't effect me if the price of bitcoin went to zero particularly (other than disappointment at the failing of a technological marvel). It is one of those situations where IMO there is a great probability of a retest of the ATH before the next halving. It seems strange to me sometimes to keep discipline and maintain a diversified portfolio when an opportunity to get in presents itself like this..Especially when the price could even get better..And no i want more coins

[spooderman]

China's "Great" firewall will one day fall.

www.torproject.org

[adamstgBit]

I am thinking i might liquidate some of my share portfolio and buy another 100 coins or so at this price or lower. I am a long term bull and tend to ignore the short term technicals. Unless 'bitcoin is finished' then any price around here or lower is a great entry. I originally bought in march april 2013 and have added on dips this year. Someone talk me out of it!

don't you have enough coins?

maybe you want to wait for price to go full retard b4 buying?

It wouldn't effect me if the price of bitcoin went to zero particularly (other than disappointment at the failing of a technological marvel). It is one of those situations where IMO there is a great probability of a retest of the ATH before the next halving. It seems strange to me sometimes to keep discipline and maintain a diversified portfolio when an opportunity to get in presents itself like this..Especially when the price could even get better..And no i want more coins

well then

today is a good day to buy.

[adamstgBit]

China's "Great" firewall will one day fall.

www.torproject.org

it might take a while for the wall to fall, until then tor helps.

[inca]

Wish we had an etf to invest in already. Then i could buy through my trading account and keep it in my tax free wrapper. Grr.

[JorgeStolfi]

I was trying to make a simplification to the effect that there is some amount of Bitcoin usage apart from speculation. I think that's what people mostly refer to when talking about fundamentals - developments that affect non-speculative use. The point is, we don't know what the price of BTC would be in a philosophical la-la land where price is driven solely by non-speculative uses, so we can't argue that an increase in such uses must lead to a proportional increase in BTC price.

That "fundamental" demand  -- people buying BTC for the express purpose of paying for something -- seems to be relatively small, and it may not be increasing.

Note that such demand would only sequester the bitcoins for a few days, perhaps a few hours; so that it might take 1000 BTC of payments per day to have the same effect on price as one investor buying 1000 BTC once for hoarding.

Unfortunately, there seems to be no data on the USD volume of payments made via bitcoin (from the blockchain we get transaction volume, but only some transactions are bitcoins changing hands).  Moreover, we do not know how much of that volume generates new bitcoin buying demand (as opposed to being bitcoins that were bought previously for investment or speculation).  Sadly, the "bitcoin press" does not seem to be capable (or willing) to dig out such data.

[adamstgBit]

i'd like to remind everyone that if you buy bitcoin and it goes down on you, you can and should delaire capital loss.

today is a good day to buy.
 

[adamstgBit]

I was trying to make a simplification to the effect that there is some amount of Bitcoin usage apart from speculation. I think that's what people mostly refer to when talking about fundamentals - developments that affect non-speculative use. The point is, we don't know what the price of BTC would be in a philosophical la-la land where price is driven solely by non-speculative uses, so we can't argue that an increase in such uses must lead to a proportional increase in BTC price.

That "fundamental" demand  -- people buying BTC for the express purpose of paying for something -- seems to be relatively small, and it may not be increasing.

Note that such demand would only sequester the bitcoins for a few days, perhaps a few hours; so that it might take 1000 BTC of payments per day to have the same effect on price as one investor buying 1000 BTC once for hoarding.

Unfortunately, there seems to be no data on the USD volume of payments made via bitcoin (from the blockchain we get transaction volume, but only some transactions are bitcoins changing hands).  Moreover, we do not know how much of that volume generates new bitcoin buying demand (as opposed to being bitcoins that were bought previously for investment or speculation).  Sadly, the "bitcoin press" does not seem to be capable (or willing) to dig out such data.

people betting with there bitcoins at satoshidice
poeple playing poker with there bitcoins at sealwithclubs
poeple trading alts with there bitcoins
etc

markets responsibility is to speculate as to the massive amount of value being slushed around, day in day out.

[bitebits]

Almost 5m views Adam, bullish!

[podyx]

i'd like to remind everyone that if you buy bitcoin and it goes down on you, you can and should delaire capital loss.

today is a good day to buy.
 

Nah, this definately looks to go further down

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[inca]

i'd like to remind everyone that if you buy bitcoin and it goes down on you, you can and should delaire capital loss.

today is a good day to buy.
 

Nah, this definately looks to go further down

Turned bear?

[samsonn25]

i'd like to remind everyone that if you buy bitcoin and it goes down on you, you can and should delaire capital loss.

today is a good day to buy.
 

You can only declare capital loss if you sold it.  If you sold it then it means you were scared about the price loss from when you bought it.

Assuming you sold it and it went down more, one could say they saved money by buying back in at a lower price.

[Grafzep]

Wish we had an etf to invest in already. Then i could buy through my trading account and keep it in my tax free wrapper. Grr.

If it were that easy, everyone would do it - and you'd get a lot fewer.

It's worth the extra clicks and wrapper loss to stock up early.