Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hdbuck]

Explanation

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[adamstgBit]

My opinion remains the same: at the very least, we revisit $380... More likely, lower.

Still too much selling pressure and not enough buyers. IMO.

trader logic: if it went this high it can go that high again and even higher, or if it goes this low it can go that low again and even lower.

bitcoin is extremely volatile because it is trader heavily on this kind of logic.

so i have to agree with you

380 and maybe even lower, is a strong possibility

[bassclef]

Sold @ 5.15 (I trade LTC/USD), bought back in this morning.

We could go either way. We could go lower as it is the weekend. On the other hand, sell volume has dropped off as we are pretty heavily oversold. There is strong support at 400.

Depends on if the big boys buy back in or not. Probably a group of traders with deep pockets--it's pretty obvious what they're up to when I see 1000btc market sells. They've made me a lot of coin but, not gonna lie, their tactics won't work forever.

[hdbuck]

My opinion remains the same: at the very least, we revisit $380... More likely, lower.

Still too much selling pressure and not enough buyers. IMO.

trader logic: if it went this high it can go that high again and even higher, or if it goes this low it can go that low again and even lower.

bitcoin is extremely volatile because it is trader heavily on this kind of logic.

so i have to agree with you

380 and maybe even lower, is a strong possibility

i set my bids on stamp between $360 all the way to $260 (prev ATH)
i set my bids on  btc-e  between $260 all the way to $100 (cuz its btc-e)

[adamstgBit]

I voted "disagree" on the poll, because i believe there is more HODLING and real economic activity ( BTC is chasing all kinds of goods services, altcoins, bitcoin company stocks ... etc..) then ever b4. the BTC/USD market just dosnt have a big enough float to paint this "high volume bottom". we'd need some truly horrific news to see this happen, blokchina.info bugging just dosnt cut it.

[hdbuck]

I voted "disagree" on the poll, because i believe there is more HODLING and real economic activity ( BTC is chasing all kinds of goods services, altcoins, bitcoin company stocks ... etc..) then ever b4. the BTC/USD market just dosnt have a big enough float to paint this "high volume" bottom. we'd need some truly horrific news to see this happen, blokchina.info bugging just dosnt cut it.

@stolfi: its always the chinese.

[JorgeStolfi]

I voted "disagree" on the poll, because i believe there is more HODLING and real economic activity ( BTC is chasing all kinds of goods services, altcoins, bitcoin company stocks ... etc..) then ever b4. the BTC/USD market just dosnt have a big enough float to paint this "high volume" bottom. we'd need some truly horrific news to see this happen, blokchina.info bugging just dosnt cut it.

@stolfi: its always the chinese.

You said it.

[adamstgBit]

no one ever believes a word i say 

[hdbuck]

I voted "disagree" on the poll, because i believe there is more HODLING and real economic activity ( BTC is chasing all kinds of goods services, altcoins, bitcoin company stocks ... etc..) then ever b4. the BTC/USD market just dosnt have a big enough float to paint this "high volume" bottom. we'd need some truly horrific news to see this happen, blokchina.info bugging just dosnt cut it.

@stolfi: its always the chinese.

You said it.

I think you may be right tho this time:

How Discus Fish Became China’s Largest Bitcoin Mining Pool

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-mining-pool-discus-fish-bitcoin/

Lemme guess... AM?!

AM franchises maybe...

Even the Wall Street Journal is considering this rumor:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/19/bitbeat-more-pain-for-bitcoin-prices-are-chinese-miners-to-blame/


Excerpt: "Still, it is the China theory– and it is only a theory — that is most intriguing, in part because it explains a striking anomaly in the bitcoin system: That the summer-long price fall  has coincided with an explosion in bitcoin mining. Over the same three-month period in which the price dropped from above $600 to below $400, there has been a doubling  in the “hashrate,” a measure  of the network-wide computational power with which bitcoin miners compete to solve a mathematical puzzle and win the right to a fresh issuance of 25 new coins at 10-minute intervals. There’s an arms race going on in bitcoin mining. But that begs the question: why would anyone rush to buy mining rigs and pay for ever-greater electricity consumption when both the proportional share and value of the bitcoins you can earn are plummeting?"

Mining company killing the competition.. ^^

[JayJuanGee]

Up!

I have a question for people who bought in October/December last year and sold on this dip: How is this dip any different from the one on 17 December when the exchange rate was ~380$? Why sell now and not back then? What about the $343 dip in April? What's different now?

Your scenario is NOT very clear...

But you are suggesting people who bought at the high in the $1,100 territory selling NOW, but NOT selling on December 17. 

I doubt that there are very many people who meet that narrow category who may have done nothing between then and NOW and just HODLed for 9 months then panicked... sounds a little ridiculous and like you are just trolling or attempting to engage in unnecessary provocative and unproductive drama regarding answers that you could easily figure out yourself with a little bit of attempt at empathizing (by mentally putting yourself in those kinds of shoes).

Yes you got it. I don't think that this scenario is so narrow. Here is another one. Anyone that bought between 22 December and 20 March and hasn't sold on the big April dip, but sold it at any other point after April. There must be some...

Your survey and or question seems like the lead up for some trolling sob story.. but so be it, that is what you supposedly want to know..

 it is the BIG and interesting question that is on your mind regarding how some people have potentially been scared out of the their BTC investment and how they have NO balls or lack of long-term planning and/or strategy.. and if they pulled out now, they are likely going to be regretting their stupid-ass and rash decision later.   

[JayJuanGee]

Surely each of us has his/her own inclinations when it comes to keeping track of financial specifics, and I personally created an excel spreadsheet to keep track of a large number of variables in respect to each BTC that I transact (buy, sell or trade), that way I have a running tally on my price per BTC for each transaction and also overall running average prices per BTC on any particular date.   Surely, if you have acquired some BTC (even a majority of BTC) for zero or NO costs, then that is going to considerably bring down your average cost per BTC.

I am NOT mining, but surely if I were mining, I would add into my excel spreadsheet any costs associated with mining, including electricity costs, and/or machinery and/or accessories costs.  

So far, whenever I have purchased anything with BTC, I have kept track of those purchases within my excel spreadsheet, but I have also engaged in purchasing behavior in order to preserve the size of my BTC holdings (in other words, so far, due to my BTC replacement practice, my BTC purchases have NOT caused my BTC holdings' quantity to go down.. NOT so far).

Yeah I've got a spreadsheet as well (but probably less free time than you   it really needs to be updated) - I know where I'm at, and at what price I will *actually* start worrying.


For me, the brown underpants stay in the drawer until we see the low 200s.

One man's free time is another man's perception of priorities... Potentially we may have different priorities or different perceptions of priorities.  To suggest that I have more free time sounds a bit patronizing in that context.. .. otherwise. I appreciate your further explanation... about how you consider your investment.. and I also appreciate that some people do NOT necessarily want to take the time to engage in meticulous analysis b/c that is NOT their interest area and they may have beaches to go to and pina colatas to drink.. etc etc.   So in that regard, to each his/her own.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[adamstgBit]

wait for it....

[Sandia]

I voted "disagree" on the poll, because i believe there is more HODLING and real economic activity ( BTC is chasing all kinds of goods services, altcoins, bitcoin company stocks ... etc..) then ever b4. the BTC/USD market just dosnt have a big enough float to paint this "high volume" bottom. we'd need some truly horrific news to see this happen, blokchina.info bugging just dosnt cut it.

@stolfi: its always the chinese.

You said it.

I think you may be right tho this time:

How Discus Fish Became China’s Largest Bitcoin Mining Pool

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-mining-pool-discus-fish-bitcoin/

Lemme guess... AM?!

AM franchises maybe...

Even the Wall Street Journal is considering this rumor:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/19/bitbeat-more-pain-for-bitcoin-prices-are-chinese-miners-to-blame/


Excerpt: "Still, it is the China theory– and it is only a theory — that is most intriguing, in part because it explains a striking anomaly in the bitcoin system: That the summer-long price fall  has coincided with an explosion in bitcoin mining. Over the same three-month period in which the price dropped from above $600 to below $400, there has been a doubling  in the “hashrate,” a measure  of the network-wide computational power with which bitcoin miners compete to solve a mathematical puzzle and win the right to a fresh issuance of 25 new coins at 10-minute intervals. There’s an arms race going on in bitcoin mining. But that begs the question: why would anyone rush to buy mining rigs and pay for ever-greater electricity consumption when both the proportional share and value of the bitcoins you can earn are plummeting?"

Mining company killing the competition.. ^^

That is believable.  They are running into a central issue though: if the price falls too far, it takes too many coins to move money.  Forget free equipment and free power, if they are escaping currency regulation: to move a USD, it would take 3x more coins today than in November.  Since they apparently can't repurchase from exchanges, they can only sell a coin once.

In their own interests, I would expect there is a high price that allows them to both gain coins from mining and have enough coins to move a significant amount of money out of China.

[criptix]

I voted "disagree" on the poll, because i believe there is more HODLING and real economic activity ( BTC is chasing all kinds of goods services, altcoins, bitcoin company stocks ... etc..) then ever b4. the BTC/USD market just dosnt have a big enough float to paint this "high volume" bottom. we'd need some truly horrific news to see this happen, blokchina.info bugging just dosnt cut it.

@stolfi: its always the chinese.

You said it.

I think you may be right tho this time:

How Discus Fish Became China’s Largest Bitcoin Mining Pool

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-mining-pool-discus-fish-bitcoin/

Lemme guess... AM?!

AM franchises maybe...

Even the Wall Street Journal is considering this rumor:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/19/bitbeat-more-pain-for-bitcoin-prices-are-chinese-miners-to-blame/


Excerpt: "Still, it is the China theory– and it is only a theory — that is most intriguing, in part because it explains a striking anomaly in the bitcoin system: That the summer-long price fall  has coincided with an explosion in bitcoin mining. Over the same three-month period in which the price dropped from above $600 to below $400, there has been a doubling  in the “hashrate,” a measure  of the network-wide computational power with which bitcoin miners compete to solve a mathematical puzzle and win the right to a fresh issuance of 25 new coins at 10-minute intervals. There’s an arms race going on in bitcoin mining. But that begs the question: why would anyone rush to buy mining rigs and pay for ever-greater electricity consumption when both the proportional share and value of the bitcoins you can earn are plummeting?"

Mining company killing the competition.. ^^

That is believable.  They are running into a central issue though: if the price falls too far, it takes too many coins to move money.  Forget free equipment and free power, if they are escaping currency regulation: to move a USD, it would take 3x more coins today than in November.  Since they apparently can't repurchase from exchanges, they can only sell a coin once.

In their own interests, I would expect there is a high price that allows them to both gain coins from mining and have enough coins to move a significant amount of money out of China.

i dont think so if your pockets are deep enough.
you instant dump everything you mine to kill the competition then afterwards when you control a big chunk of the nethash you pump the price.

[JayJuanGee]

no one ever believes a word i say 

I usually do the opposite.       

[adamstgBit]

no one ever believes a word i say 

I usually do the opposite.       

thats probably best, I let the emotions flow freely when i post.

[Sandia]

I voted "disagree" on the poll, because i believe there is more HODLING and real economic activity ( BTC is chasing all kinds of goods services, altcoins, bitcoin company stocks ... etc..) then ever b4. the BTC/USD market just dosnt have a big enough float to paint this "high volume" bottom. we'd need some truly horrific news to see this happen, blokchina.info bugging just dosnt cut it.

@stolfi: its always the chinese.

You said it.

I think you may be right tho this time:

How Discus Fish Became China’s Largest Bitcoin Mining Pool

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-mining-pool-discus-fish-bitcoin/

Lemme guess... AM?!

AM franchises maybe...

Even the Wall Street Journal is considering this rumor:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/19/bitbeat-more-pain-for-bitcoin-prices-are-chinese-miners-to-blame/


Excerpt: "Still, it is the China theory– and it is only a theory — that is most intriguing, in part because it explains a striking anomaly in the bitcoin system: That the summer-long price fall  has coincided with an explosion in bitcoin mining. Over the same three-month period in which the price dropped from above $600 to below $400, there has been a doubling  in the “hashrate,” a measure  of the network-wide computational power with which bitcoin miners compete to solve a mathematical puzzle and win the right to a fresh issuance of 25 new coins at 10-minute intervals. There’s an arms race going on in bitcoin mining. But that begs the question: why would anyone rush to buy mining rigs and pay for ever-greater electricity consumption when both the proportional share and value of the bitcoins you can earn are plummeting?"

Mining company killing the competition.. ^^

That is believable.  They are running into a central issue though: if the price falls too far, it takes too many coins to move money.  Forget free equipment and free power, if they are escaping currency regulation: to move a USD, it would take 3x more coins today than in November.  Since they apparently can't repurchase from exchanges, they can only sell a coin once.

In their own interests, I would expect there is a high price that allows them to both gain coins from mining and have enough coins to move a significant amount of money out of China.

i dont think so if your pockets are deep enough.
you instant dump everything you mine to kill the competition then afterwards when you control a big chunk of the nethash you pump the price.

You are assuming their customers can wait 6 mo-2 years to move money out of China.  I don't know the right kind of people, but I would assume they would not want anyone to know that far in advance that they were breaking the law.

One flaw with the story: even if exchanges are monitored, it should still be possible to buy btc using an intermediary (family, friends, etc., as is normal for Chinese doing this).  It would be so much simpler than cornering the mining market to generate virgin coins.

[coins101]

no one ever believes a word i say 

I usually do the opposite.       

thats probably best, I let the emotions flow freely when i post.

I wanna shoot every seller.

Yeah, you're right. That does feel good.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation