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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26967072 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
mmitech
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October 24, 2014, 11:54:34 AM



Care to explain because those lines means nothing in TA terms...the only thing I can tell you is that the very long term chart, the 3 years one(1W candles) is looking very bearish, it indeed looks like a bubble that is bursting..


Most of you wont admit it, but another bubble highly unlikely wont happen, and if the downtrend continue based on the stage of a bubble by Jean-Paul Rodrigue double digits are a very good possible event that we can't really ignore.
marcelus
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October 24, 2014, 11:55:01 AM

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).


I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?


The consumer won't even know they're using it. Gateways like Stripe, Apple Pay, Transferwise, Goldman Sachs, etc, etc will take care of that for them. The consumer will merely make payments like they always have - except at a fraction of the cost.
pinky
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October 24, 2014, 11:55:13 AM

Guys I have a question, especially for traders of other stuff (stocks, commodities, indices etc).

Which other asset has similar volatility in the same timeframe as Bitcoin? And with good volume?

I want wild price fluctuations in about the timeframes that BTC has (not so fast as forex).

Any ideas?

Help appreciated.

FX has usually daily volatility around 0.5-1% and I would say this is quite low volatility compared to other assets, there are of course strong trend moves which can change rate 10-30% in a couple of months.

I would say VIX (volatility index) and it's derivatives (VXX, XIV, TVIX...) resemble the BTC crazy moves. When stock markets are in uptrend expect around 5% daily volatility, when in crashing mode 10-30% daily volatility is normal.
klee
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October 24, 2014, 11:56:20 AM

Guys I have a question, especially for traders of other stuff (stocks, commodities, indices etc).

Which other asset has similar volatility in the same timeframe as Bitcoin? And with good volume?

I want wild price fluctuations in about the timeframes that BTC has (not so fast as forex).

Any ideas?

Help appreciated.
Lottery tickets.
Seriously  Tongue
Heh, penny stocks was taken. Also, it depends on how you view the question before or after the lottery.
Penny stocks have same volume?

I am still asking seriously.
Michael Milken made a fortune with his junk bonds and penny stocks. In the 1980's boiler rooms built the Wall Street nest of vipers we have today.
edit: I'm talking about asset classes. As far as individual assets, maybe BRK.A or military contracted industrials if you count stock splitting.
I will search the latter, thx!
Blue
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October 24, 2014, 11:56:51 AM

...


his glazed glare... he is dead already .

she won´t get anything out of him the way she used to....  ever.

poor bitchcoiny

[as suggested by a native speaker]
NotLambchop
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October 24, 2014, 11:57:36 AM


The fucking volume on okcoin + huobi + btcchina ...

Who can someone sane believe it is not manipulated ?

How to stop this shit ?

Regulation, inferior earthling, regulation.



  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.

@Blue:  May I suggest "glazed glare"?
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October 24, 2014, 11:59:27 AM

Guys I have a question, especially for traders of other stuff (stocks, commodities, indices etc).

Which other asset has similar volatility in the same timeframe as Bitcoin? And with good volume?

I want wild price fluctuations in about the timeframes that BTC has (not so fast as forex).

Any ideas?

Help appreciated.

FX has usually daily volatility around 0.5-1% and I would say this is quite low volatility compared to other assets, there are of course strong trend moves which can change rate 10-30% in a couple of months.

I would say VIX (volatility index) and it's derivatives (VXX, XIV, TVIX...) resemble the BTC crazy moves. When stock markets are in uptrend expect around 5% daily volatility, when in crashing mode 10-30% daily volatility is normal.
Thanks mate..
marcus_of_augustus
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October 24, 2014, 11:59:40 AM



Care to explain because those lines means nothing in TA terms...the only thing I can tell you is that the very long term chart, the 3 years one(1W candles) is looking very bearish, it indeed looks like a bubble that is bursting..


Most of you wont admit it, but another bubble highly unlikely wont happen, and if the downtrend continue based on the stage of a bubble by Jean-Paul Rodrigue double digits are a very good possible event that we can't really ignore.

... mmmbitdoom for breakfast with your coffee
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October 24, 2014, 12:00:31 PM



Care to explain because those lines means nothing in TA terms...the only thing I can tell you is that the very long term chart, the 3 years one(1W candles) is looking very bearish, it indeed looks like a bubble that is bursting..


Most of you wont admit it, but another bubble highly unlikely wont happen, and if the downtrend continue based on the stage of a bubble by Jean-Paul Rodrigue double digits are a very good possible event that we can't really ignore.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/descendingtriangle.asp
ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ


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October 24, 2014, 12:00:42 PM


Explanation
mmitech
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October 24, 2014, 12:01:08 PM



Care to explain because those lines means nothing in TA terms...the only thing I can tell you is that the very long term chart, the 3 years one(1W candles) is looking very bearish, it indeed looks like a bubble that is bursting..


Most of you wont admit it, but another bubble highly unlikely wont happen, and if the downtrend continue based on the stage of a bubble by Jean-Paul Rodrigue double digits are a very good possible event that we can't really ignore.

... mmmbitdoom for breakfast with your coffee


 four "phases of a bubble". While the "smart money" has purchased during the earlier "stealth phase", institutional investors begin to buy during "take off". Following media coverage, the general public begins to invest leading to steep rise in prices as "enthusiasm" and then "greed" kick in. "Delusion" precedes the peak.
superresistant
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October 24, 2014, 12:01:50 PM

The fucking volume on okcoin + huobi + btcchina ...
Who can someone sane believe it is not manipulated ?
How to stop this shit ?
Regulation, inferior earthling, regulation.

  ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords.
@Blue:  May I suggest "glazed glare"?


An the worst is that stupid BOTs are spreading this fake BTC price.
Asrael999
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October 24, 2014, 12:02:15 PM

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).


I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?

My opinion is that bitcoin's huge flaw in regards to regular consumer usage is that two of its major benefits both work in favor of the merchant.

Can't reverse transactions: benefits the merchant, makes it harder for them to get ripped off, but easier for the consumer to be ripped off, or to force them to accept what could be an inferior product with no guarantee of a refund.



You don't get a refund because of your payment method - you get a refund because of consumer protection law.
Companies that think they can get away with not giving refunds because people have paid with bitcoin will find that what happened to Butterflylabs happens to them.
Consumer protection law is what matters here - not your payment method. Most times you want to get a refund/take something back you talk directly to the retailer and they refund you directly or give you store credit. You only go to the credit card that one time in a hundred when that doesn't work.
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October 24, 2014, 12:02:18 PM

Guys I have a question, especially for traders of other stuff (stocks, commodities, indices etc).

Which other asset has similar volatility in the same timeframe as Bitcoin? And with good volume?

I want wild price fluctuations in about the timeframes that BTC has (not so fast as forex).

Any ideas?

Help appreciated.

Everything pre-IPO. That is why VC's are so comfortable investing in bitcoin and bitcoin related companies. Usually only VC's are able to invest in companies (with shares) before their IPO. Once companies hit the stock market they are usually much more stable in terms of price per share.

The only real comparison would be penny stocks, which can go up or down 2000% in a single day.
mmitech
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October 24, 2014, 12:04:00 PM



Care to explain because those lines means nothing in TA terms...the only thing I can tell you is that the very long term chart, the 3 years one(1W candles) is looking very bearish, it indeed looks like a bubble that is bursting..


Most of you wont admit it, but another bubble highly unlikely wont happen, and if the downtrend continue based on the stage of a bubble by Jean-Paul Rodrigue double digits are a very good possible event that we can't really ignore.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/descendingtriangle.asp

mmm, I wasn't aware of that one, thanks for sharing.... beside, it seems that we are talking about the same point, I do apologize for my ignorance.
Asrael999
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October 24, 2014, 12:05:57 PM

Guys I have a question, especially for traders of other stuff (stocks, commodities, indices etc).

Which other asset has similar volatility in the same timeframe as Bitcoin? And with good volume?

I want wild price fluctuations in about the timeframes that BTC has (not so fast as forex).

Any ideas?

Help appreciated.
Lottery tickets.
Seriously  Tongue

Yep Euromillions today has a top prize of GBP 150,000,000.
Your chances of winning are probably similar to the price of BTC hitting 10,000 in 2015.

Feel free to remind me of this if it happens Smiley
Davyd05
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October 24, 2014, 12:07:12 PM

Shorts down to 8500??? Looks like bears are starting closing their positions.

Yeah Ive been watching that. But cant tell if this is a bear trap developing or luring for the final bull trap.
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October 24, 2014, 12:07:51 PM


Much like many gas stations in the US give a cash discount or small mom and pop stores give cash discounts, I believe this will happen for bitcoin as well.

Other advantages for consumers will be:
1. protection against inflation
2. No frozen accounts like Cyprus
3. Banking for the 6+ billion people in the world that don't have banking
4. Remittances -- Save 10%+ on sending money to 3rd world countries
5. Internet transactions (usually seller based) -- Too many people scam with other services like paypal, I would gladly take a 5% cut off my revenue to know that my transaction is irreversible and I cannot be scammed by a buyer
6. Secondary platforms such as a decentralized stock market. -- China will go ape shit over this. All they have right now is real estate and wealth management products (essentially a ponzi scheme). This will allow people in countries that attempt to stop capital flight to actually have oversees investments.

I'm sure there is more, but that is a decent start.

1-3) More applicable as a store of value argument than a consumer/merchant viability one. I guess the banking for third world country things is okay, if people in third world countries want to buy stuff from people accepting bitcoin.
4) I agree with this, and say so in my post. It's a good way to send money relatively cheaply and quickly.
5) I agree it benefits the seller, but you don't cater to the merchant, you cater to the consumer. The consumer is the one paying, and he has to pay in bitcoins. The consumer is the one with no recourse if he gets screwed over.
6) Again, not really addressing the consumer/merchant relationship.

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).


bad points

All bad points, octaft.

Consumers get multiplied x5 or x10 his purchasing power by year, instead of get it diluted in the fiat scheme
Paypal and others will offer chargebacks
Consumers bypass the corrupt banking system
Consumers bypass the corrupt central state system
Consumers get, in fact, discount price or heavy discount price

It´s a win-win situation that everyone would want, except the actual overlords of the system that right now are probably trying to undermine crypto via manipulation, overregulation and paying trolls

1) What about the guys who bought at 1000? How is their purchasing power doing? I'm not taunting people who bought near the top, my point is simply that you can't say this is a benefit, because there is no guarantee that bitcoins value continues to rise indefinitely, and there is serious risk involved (whether perceived or reality I'll leave it up to you to decide, either will suffice for what I'm arguing) that the whole thing could plummet while you're keeping your purchasing power in bitcoins.
2) Paypal is very consumer friendly and merchant unfriendly. This is exactly what the consumer wants.
3-4) There is no guarantee enough consumers will care about any of that strongly enough to be willing to make changes. I'll concede that maybe in some countries this would be enough, but in order to get the 5-6 figure prices everyone talks about, you'd need more than just those countries.
5) The most I've seen for a discount is 5%. If there are any "heavy discounts" I may have missed, feel free to enlighten me.

I don't really see the issue on your first "flaw":
-When I need to RMA something I don't contact my creditcard company but the merchant.
-Merchant regulation ( example:The law in Belgium states things bought online can be returned for free up to 14 days after delivery no   questions asked)
- Merchants offering the best return policies and the best trust ratings would be another tool to compete with the competition.

It's nothing a free market can't resolve on itself.

And cc fees are calculated into your purchasing price....

If you get ripped off, you contact your credit card company and have them reverse charges. Much more of a pain to get back your money with bitcoins, especially if they were straight-up fly by night scammers.

Relying on trust ratings seems like it would be a huge catch-22 that would lock new businesses out of markets in favor of established ones. How does one get high trust ratings if few have purchased from them? How does one justify purchasing from those new businesses so they can get those high trust ratings? You might see prices from the trusted sellers rise in the face of this, as they know people will pay the premium for the reassurance.

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).


I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?


The consumer won't even know they're using it. Gateways like Stripe, Apple Pay, Transferwise, Goldman Sachs, etc, etc will take care of that for them. The consumer will merely make payments like they always have - except at a fraction of the cost.

A fair point, but one that still relies on for-profit groups with self-serving interests.

once consumers have more of a reason to use it (as all of these projects develop).


I see this argument a lot, and my question is this: what, exactly, would give consumers more of a reason to use bitcoin for legal transactions over existing payment methods? What will these new projects do differently that will make it more attractive for the consumer?

My opinion is that bitcoin's huge flaw in regards to regular consumer usage is that two of its major benefits both work in favor of the merchant.

Can't reverse transactions: benefits the merchant, makes it harder for them to get ripped off, but easier for the consumer to be ripped off, or to force them to accept what could be an inferior product with no guarantee of a refund.



You don't get a refund because of your payment method - you get a refund because of consumer protection law.
Companies that think they can get away with not giving refunds because people have paid with bitcoin will find that what happened to Butterflylabs happens to them.
Consumer protection law is what matters here - not your payment method. Most times you want to get a refund/take something back you talk directly to the retailer and they refund you directly or give you store credit. You only go to the credit card that one time in a hundred when that doesn't work.

Another fair point, but even with the law, it would still be a lot harder to get your bitcoins back. The point is why would the vast majority of consumers be willing to go through all the trouble? Yes, okay, there's the threat of arrest for those who scammed you, but even if they do go to jail, there is no guarantee you're getting your money back, and if you do it could take years vs the one phone call you need to make to the CC company. The ripoffs getting in trouble is not as important to your average consumer as them getting their money back without having to wait years wondering if it's ever coming.
NotLambchop
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October 24, 2014, 12:08:28 PM

HONEY BADGER DIDN'T CARE

DO YOU?
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October 24, 2014, 12:09:47 PM

I'm not sure why so many people are worried, you should be sold atm and waiting to catch the bottom of this drop.

How to catch the bottom in a bear market
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