Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[tarmi]

you didnt close your longs?

now I know who will panic sell once we break that 300 support.

[1714660855]

1714660855

[1714660855]

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[N12]

I don't trade on margin. I like how antagonistic you are despite how neutral I have been in my communication. Can we infer that perhaps it is you who is stuck in a margin position?

BTW, If you look at the order book depth deltas, you will see a similar development. Decreasing global asks. On the other hand, bids seem to be regaining.

[Tzupy]

...
BTW, If you look at the order book depth deltas, you will see a similar development. Decreasing global asks. On the other hand, bids seem to be regaining.

I saw the bids recover nicely on Bistamp, but most are piling around the 300$ support, expecting testing it and a double bottom.

[tarmi]

you/he/we does not matter.

the fact is that there are a lot of people thinking that 275 was the bottom and that mr 30 k guy was some poor* dumb fucker who sold at the bottom. 

*

[N12]

Well, I do have to admit that I don't believe that someone who sells 30k on a single exchange at a single time at the termination of at least a local trend is very clever. In fact, the nature of this person appears to be so impulsive that I would not be surprised to see the opposite happen one day.

Also, I've actually perceived the sentiment to be the opposite of yours. I think there's a large number of people who believe Bitcoin's done for.

[Globb0]

Is it what you see though? or what you dont see?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Well, I do have to admit that I don't believe that someone who sells 30k on a single exchange at a single time at the termination of at least a local trend is very clever. In fact, the nature of this person appears to be so impulsive that I would not be surprised to see the opposite happen one day.

Anybody who has 30,000 BTC in their possession has obviously been very good in business at some point in their lives.
Unless it was through inheritence or something.

[N12]

Well, I do have to admit that I don't believe that someone who sells 30k on a single exchange at a single time at the termination of at least a local trend is very clever. In fact, the nature of this person appears to be so impulsive that I would not be surprised to see the opposite happen one day.

Anybody who has 30,000 BTC in their possession has obviously been very good in business at some point in their lives.
Unless it was through inheritence or something.

Or a random geek who decided to CPU mine for a while and held ever since, or someone who bought them in 2010 and went to jail for a while, or maybe it's inherited money like you say.

I think if this person was good at business, he'd have found business partners to sell that 30k to OTC, or at least spread the load over multiple exchanges and preferably several sells.

[oda.krell]

What's this tell you?

https://i.imgur.com/DLluEww.png

Agreed with the basic observation: volume is declining on the latest downtrend so far.

That said, the overall picture is a bit more complex:

a) the volume view that supports the claim we've found a bottom is relatively well supported by the Bitstamp data, but less so on Bitfinex and Huobi.

b) While the current downtrend is on declining volume (bullish), the previous rally from the bottom fizzled out on lowering volume as well, which is bearish.

Here's the details...

Bitstamp: Clear case can be made the latest downtrend is on declining volume, but volume was also sharply declining when we left the low-300s

https://i.imgur.com/JetMZbY.png

Bitfinex: Less clear volume picture to me. Highest volume candle still a red one, and no clear trends in volume visible, but on the bullish side, by far the larger candles in the last month are green. Overall, relatively bullish volume picture I'd say.

https://i.imgur.com/qDAUNPA.png

Huobi: Probably the least bullish volume picture. Volume trends similar to Bitstamp, but volume on down days at least as big as on up days.

https://i.imgur.com/Nb5Uwkd.png

[JorgeStolfi]

Well, I do have to admit that I don't believe that someone who sells 30k on a single exchange at a single time at the termination of at least a local trend is very clever. In fact, the nature of this person appears to be so impulsive

He may have needed the money for something, urgently.

Or he may have become convinced that price would never get substantially higher than 300$, and could quickly get much lower. In that case, selling as quickly as possible was not a bad strategy.  Moving part of the coins to another exchange would have taken time, and he may have felt that it was not worth running that risk.

[N12]

IMO the most probable thing is just a larger sideways, even if it fluctuates a lot from our microscopic view. It is hard to outdo this 5th October event. At the same time, we obviously have lots of overhead resistance, and it would take a long time to get through.

I'd discard all volume charts of 0% exchanges. As for why things look slightly differently on Bitfinex, that's obvious: 30k guy sold on Bitstamp, not Bitfinex. Bitstamp is where all eyes have been on those days, and thus IMO it's the one to look at (well, aside from the argument that Bitstamp is the only one free of potentially distorting leveraged volume).

Well, I do have to admit that I don't believe that someone who sells 30k on a single exchange at a single time at the termination of at least a local trend is very clever. In fact, the nature of this person appears to be so impulsive

He may have needed the money for something, urgently.

Or he may have become convinced that price would never get substantially higher than 300$, and could quickly get much lower. In that case, selling as quickly as possible was not a bad strategy.  Moving part of the coins to another exchange would have taken time, and he may have felt that it was not worth running that risk.

Someone good at business does not get in a situation where he has to liquidate a large holding of an illiquid asset within <24h (sending the money FROM the exchange will take longer in itself anyway). In the second case, obviously his fears turned out unfounded. My point is just that yes, it's quite probable that this guy was clueless. The only real reason to sell in such a manner is if one had inside knowledge of an irreversible technical failure of Bitcoin, and if that was the case, good luck competing with all the devs.

[derpinheimer]

And then suddenly, China flips its shit

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tarmi]

Also, I've actually perceived the sentiment to be the opposite of yours. I think there's a large number of people who believe Bitcoin's done for.

yes, but we need old guard/long time hodlers for true despair.

[elasticband]

yesterday i was a bullbear... today i am full blown bear. just sold 100 coins, don't care if we rebound i could use the cash.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

yesterday i was a bullbear... today i am full blown bear. just sold 100 coins, don't care if we rebound i could use the cash.

Really?

Nice, you must have got in very early.

[Wekkel]

Looks like Litecoin is heading for some type of resolution by half November.

[Bagatell]

yesterday i was a bullbear... today i am full blown bear. just sold 100 coins, don't care if we rebound i could use the cash.

Really?

Nice, you must have got in very early.

Desperate for cash - spends his time on a forum. 

[elasticband]

yesterday i was a bullbear... today i am full blown bear. just sold 100 coins, don't care if we rebound i could use the cash.

Really?

Nice, you must have got in very early.

Desperate for cash - spends his time on a forum.  

Didn't say i was desperate for cash, I said i could use the cash(more so than the BTC) at this point in time. someone with 100btc to sell is not really desperate for cash are they? ever seen me with a paid signature campaign, taking out BTC loans or begging for dust..... nope because i am not desperate.

I do enjoy reading some BTC antics during my day to day life and where better to get the drama than bitcoingossip forum

edit: yes i got in early enough and am nowhere near a loss and still hodl more than i sodl.

[janos666]

IMO the most probable thing is just a larger sideways, even if it fluctuates a lot from our microscopic view. It is hard to outdo this 5th October event. At the same time, we obviously have lots of overhead resistance, and it would take a long time to get through.

I'd discard all volume charts of 0% exchanges. As for why things look slightly differently on Bitfinex, that's obvious: 30k guy sold on Bitstamp, not Bitfinex. Bitstamp is where all eyes have been on those days, and thus IMO it's the one to look at (well, aside from the argument that Bitstamp is the only one free of potentially distorting leveraged volume).

Well, I do have to admit that I don't believe that someone who sells 30k on a single exchange at a single time at the termination of at least a local trend is very clever. In fact, the nature of this person appears to be so impulsive

He may have needed the money for something, urgently.

Or he may have become convinced that price would never get substantially higher than 300$, and could quickly get much lower. In that case, selling as quickly as possible was not a bad strategy.  Moving part of the coins to another exchange would have taken time, and he may have felt that it was not worth running that risk.

Someone good at business does not get in a situation where he has to liquidate a large holding of an illiquid asset within <24h (sending the money FROM the exchange will take longer in itself anyway). In the second case, obviously his fears turned out unfounded. My point is just that yes, it's quite probable that this guy was clueless. The only real reason to sell in such a manner is if one had inside knowledge of an irreversible technical failure of Bitcoin, and if that was the case, good luck competing with all the devs.

I prefer the Bitfinex data overall:
- China should be considered 100% fake
- Bitstamp have been tainted by that very unrepresentative 30k sell-wall event (I would say it's 50-50 if that's a good or a bad thing to include and I place my bid on that it's not)
- Bitfinex represents something like a "real market" as close as any Bitcoin exchange might get nowadays (I consider the active leverage trading as a positive thing in this regard)
So, I support the idea that nobody really know what might happen next. I guess this where somebody should call the "critical" time, yet nobody does that anymore (strange).