Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wpalczynski]

It would be great if your theory about Stamp being responsible for the prolonged Bear market would be correct but that would mean that a lot more then 19K BTC was absconded with.

@wpalczynski

I don't have an account at Bitsamp so someone who knows more about it can correct me, but as I understand it, there isn't direct short-selling there. You have to borrow coins from other account holders and sell them, then presumably buy back on the exchange to cover your short.

If this is the case, then what if someone compromised Stamp a long time ago to not only sell non-existent coins but also to lend them out at interest? That could explain low swap costs (real coin lenders have to compete with fake coin lenders driving swap costs down). More importantly it could explain the prolonged bear market.

With naked short-selling, an unethical billionaire or group of rich people could drive the BTC price down for a prolonged period of time in order to acquire equity in the Bitcoin ecosytem at a steep discount. I'm pretty sure the FBI would consider this criminal behavior if it turns out they auctioned off their confiscated coins for a fraction of their true worth.

This is speculation, but it seems like an extremely convenient time for Stamp to get hacked just as they had an unusually large amount of coins in their hot wallet. That is further circumstantial evidence of a previously compromised security system.  

Or it could be an inside job. I don't know the operators, but when I think of Slovenians, the term "rock-solid highly ethical financial management" does not come to mind.

[Hlavax]

I don't have an account at Bitsamp so someone who knows more about it can correct me, but as I understand it, there isn't direct short-selling there. You have to borrow coins from other account holders and sell them, then presumably buy back on the exchange to cover your short.

If this is the case, then what if someone compromised Stamp a long time ago to not only sell non-existent coins but also to lend them out at interest? That could explain low swap costs (real coin lenders have to compete with fake coin lenders driving swap costs down). More importantly it could explain the prolonged bear market.

With naked short-selling, an unethical billionaire or group of rich people could drive the BTC price down for a prolonged period of time in order to acquire equity in the Bitcoin ecosytem at a steep discount. I'm pretty sure the FBI would consider this criminal behavior if it turns out they auctioned off their confiscated coins for a fraction of their true worth.

This is speculation, but it seems like an extremely convenient time for Stamp to get hacked just as they had an unusually large amount of coins in their hot wallet. That is further circumstantial evidence of a previously compromised security system. 

Or it could be an inside job. I don't know the operators, but when I think of Slovenians, the term "rock-solid highly ethical financial management" does not come to mind.

what do you mean by "non-existent coins"?

[billyjoeallen]

this points to more than just a wallet hack, whoever swept those coins into that wallet before clearing it must have had access to more than just the wallet.dat file...

I agree, but it could be that the coins weren't swept and the thief had to wait for an unusually large amount of coins to be in the hot wallet, but how would he know that would ever happen or that their wouldn't be an even better time to make his move?

What puzzles me is that the crash apparently started BEFORE the theft. Did someone know what was about to happen and trade on inside information? Did the Stamp operators discover the theft and start trading the predictable plunge before disclosing it? Or maybe nothing nefarious happened (other than the theft) and crashes are just a normal part of a bear market. I dunno.

Whatever happened, it worked out for me personally as I had a short position and a bunch of lowball bids in ahead of time. I consider lowball bids with a low probability of ever getting filled sort of like lottery tickets. It makes sense to have a small part of one's portfolio dedicated to bottom feeding.

[billyjoeallen]

what do you mean by "non-existent coins"?

I mean coins that were not ever mined but only existed as credits into an account at Bitstamp.

[freebit13]

this points to more than just a wallet hack, whoever swept those coins into that wallet before clearing it must have had access to more than just the wallet.dat file...

I agree, but it could be that the coins weren't swept and the thief had to wait for an unusually large amount of coins to be in the hot wallet, but how would he know that would ever happen or that their wouldn't be an even better time to make his move?

What puzzles me is that the crash apparently started BEFORE the theft. Did someone know what was about to happen and trade on inside information? Did the Stamp operators discover the theft and start trading the predictable plunge before disclosing it? Or maybe nothing nefarious happened (other than the theft) and crashes are just a normal part of a bear market. I dunno.

Whatever happened, it worked out for me personally as I had a short position and a bunch of lowball bids in ahead of time. I consider lowball bids with a low probability of ever getting filled sort of like lottery tickets. It makes sense to have a small part of one's portfolio dedicated to bottom feeding.

It looks like this hack may have started just before the crash, 9000 coins went through that wallet on the 3rd, before Stamp noticed/announced anything. It could have been the selling off of those first 9000 coins that started the crash and then he continued to sweep another 18000 into it and remove them on the 4th before Stamp closed down their operation. Obviously all speculation though because they have only mentioned the 18000 coins so far.

[F-bernanke]

what do you mean by "non-existent coins"?

I mean coins that were not ever mined but only existed as credits into an account at Bitstamp.

Like gox coins. I don't understand how everybody thinks gox pumped the price, when instead they were selling non existent coins en masse, Logic says this keeps the price down, because they were flooding the market with coins that were not there (naked short selling).

[freebit13]

what do you mean by "non-existent coins"?

I mean coins that were not ever mined but only existed as credits into an account at Bitstamp.

Like gox coins. I don't understand how everybody thinks gox pumped the price, when instead they were selling non existent coins en masse, Logic says this keeps the price down, because they were flooding the market with coins that were not there (naked short selling).

I don't think it was the fake gox coins pushing up the price... more like Willy and his friend...

[keewee]

Am I seeing a huge influx of new accounts dedicated to trolling fud or is this just more of the same from this site?

More of the same unfortunately. Every time there is a significant price movement (usually on the downward movements) there is an influx of noob trolls. It has got me wondering if there is a limit to the number of users you can have on your ignore list...

[ChartBuddy]

Bitfinex

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

what do you mean by "non-existent coins"?

I mean coins that were not ever mined but only existed as credits into an account at Bitstamp.

Like gox coins. I don't understand how everybody thinks gox pumped the price, when instead they were selling non existent coins en masse, Logic says this keeps the price down, because they were flooding the market with coins that were not there (naked short selling).

Gox coins did not pump the price. Mark Krapeles pumped the price only when his dishonest attempt to hide his lost coins resulted in him buying coins (via willy bot) to continue the ruse that he still had them and that MtGox was still solvent. This only drove up the price on Gox which is why there was the large price disparity between Gox and other exchanges. Why that guy isn't in jail yet is a mystery to me.

Incidentally, I got my coins out of Gox when the price disparity became suspiciously large. Just in time as it turns out. It's generally a good idea to play it safe whenever you smell funky kicks going down in the city.

[Fatman3001]

what do you mean by "non-existent coins"?

I mean coins that were not ever mined but only existed as credits into an account at Bitstamp.

Like gox coins. I don't understand how everybody thinks gox pumped the price, when instead they were selling non existent coins en masse, Logic says this keeps the price down, because they were flooding the market with coins that were not there (naked short selling).

Gox coins did not pump the price. Mark Krapeles pumped the price only when his dishonest attempt to hide his lost coins resulted in him buying coins (via willy bot) to continue the ruse that he still had them and that MtGox was still solvent. This only drove up the price on Gox which is why there was the large price disparity between Gox and other exchanges. Why that guy isn't in jail yet is a mystery to me.

Incidentally, I got my coins out of Gox when the price disparity became suspiciously large. Just in time as it turns out. It's generally a good idea to play it safe whenever you smell funky kicks going down in the city.

Do you know what happened to that guy that sold real bitcoins for goxcoins towards the end?

[Fatman3001]

Bitcoinwisdom removed stamp as their default. hmmm....

[billyjoeallen]

Do you know what happened to that guy that sold real bitcoins for goxcoins towards the end?

from what I heard, the operator of the exchange ("Bitcoinbuilder" I think)traded all or most of his profits for gox coins and got wiped out when Gox took the big dirt nap.

[cmacwiz]

Just wanted this on the current page

[noobtrader]

wow @ price movement 

[Fatman3001]

Do you know what happened to that guy that sold real bitcoins for goxcoins towards the end?

from what I heard, the operator of the exchange ("Bitcoinbuilder" I think)traded all or most of his profits for gox coins and got wiped out when Gox took the big dirt nap.

That was the dumbest business idea ever! I know hindsight is 20/20, but we could all smell the stench of death by then.

[ChartBuddy]

Bitfinex

Explanation

[Elwar]

Just wanted this on the current page

thank you

[billyjoeallen]

Do you know what happened to that guy that sold real bitcoins for goxcoins towards the end?

from what I heard, the operator of the exchange ("Bitcoinbuilder" I think)traded all or most of his profits for gox coins and got wiped out when Gox took the big dirt nap.

That was the dumbest business idea ever! I know hindsight is 20/20, but we could all smell the stench of death by then.

It would have been brilliant if he had taken his profits in real BTC and also traded away his own stash of goxcoins. He helped a lot of people cut their losses.

[bobboooiie]

Do you know what happened to that guy that sold real bitcoins for goxcoins towards the end?

from what I heard, the operator of the exchange ("Bitcoinbuilder" I think)traded all or most of his profits for gox coins and got wiped out when Gox took the big dirt nap.

That was the dumbest business idea ever! I know hindsight is 20/20, but we could all smell the stench of death by then.

It would have been brilliant if he had taken his profits in real BTC and also traded away his own stash of goxcoins. He helped a lot of people cut their losses.

When the kraken distributes what is left, does he still get it though ? Wasnt he buying them on 10% of the real price towards the end ?