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Question: When will we see a new ATH? (Credit to: Biodom)
2019 - 14 (9.2%)
Early 2020 - 33 (21.7%)
Late 2020 - 45 (29.6%)
Early 2021 - 13 (8.6%)
Late 2021 - 24 (15.8%)
2022 - 4 (2.6%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
2024 - 4 (2.6%)
After 2024 - 3 (2%)
Never - 12 (7.9%)
Total Voters: 152

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21429617 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (128 posts by 22 users deleted.)
inca
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January 06, 2015, 08:18:55 AM

No this is just nothing but plain short covering. It will bounce a little and then head towards the $200

You know rather than guessing you can just see that btc swap contracts are only very slightly below their all time high level, right? Currently over 22000 contracts.

Www.bfxdata.com



Yes but in all honestly it doesn't really make much difference.

Well it makes a difference between lying to support your short position and reality.
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cbeast
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January 06, 2015, 08:46:21 AM

Quote from: H.L. Mencken
Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.

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January 06, 2015, 08:59:47 AM

guess what, a ton of people were selling coins on loan on Bitswamp (that is how they manipulated the price so low over the last 6 months) ... and now bitswamp has conveniently 'lost' coins ... i.e. the swamp is net short of coins.

go figure, it is not rocket science, someone has been selling non-existent coins and the swamp administered it. Good luck to anybody willing to deal with the swamp, you'll need it.

I never had much love for Bitstump after they told people "You remember those funds you sent us?  We're going to need an identity theft kit from you if you want them back."  IIRC, even Gox gave people fair warning.  I was all done with exchanges before Bitstump came on-line so I was only watching from the sidelines.

Lets not forget about their fee fraud (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597647.0) and lying about producing financial audits every quarter (links down because of hack).

Quote
Additionally, a financial statement audit is in progress.
https://www.bitstamp.net/article/Bitstamp-BTC-Proof-of-Reserves-May-2014/

4. Bitstamp is now performing quarterly financial audits and will post our financial reports on our web site.
https://www.bitstamp.net/article/Statement-by-Bitstamp-regarding-MtGox-insolv/
Ive been asking for that completed financial audit for 3 months now. About 5 times now, with the last time just a few days ago. Just keep being fobbed off with "its in progress".
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January 06, 2015, 08:59:56 AM


Explanation
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January 06, 2015, 09:09:41 AM

Thanks to that incompetent Slovenian shit, we blew through a multi-year support level. BFX just became the de facto world exchange. That is terrible news, not because I don't like BFX, but because now it is the central point of failure that makes the whole damn system vulnerable.

It bears repeating: IF YOU AREN'T GOING TO PUT YOUR COINS INTO PLAY, GET THEM OFF OF THE DAMN EXCHANGE. IF YOU DON'T PERSONALLY HOLD THE PRIVATE KEYS, YOU DON'T OWN ANY BITCOIN. You hold BTC IOUs from a third party.


My analysis: We are prolly going down, but not by much unless we get some cascading margin calls from leveraged longs. If that happens there will be crash, a bounce, a pause and then a SHORT squeeze, so all you have to do is not get force liquidated and you'll make bank.

If you now find yourself in a leveraged long position, I strongly recommend you post additional margin to prevent a forced liquidation or cut your losses now.  The four punch raiders will try to drive us down to <$200 but I don't think they'll make it. They might though, so be prepared.

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January 06, 2015, 09:21:47 AM

guess what, a ton of people were selling coins on loan on Bitswamp (that is how they manipulated the price so low over the last 6 months) ... and now bitswamp has conveniently 'lost' coins ... i.e. the swamp is net short of coins.

go figure, it is not rocket science, someone has been selling non-existent coins and the swamp administered it. Good luck to anybody willing to deal with the swamp, you'll need it.

I never had much love for Bitstump after they told people "You remember those funds you sent us?  We're going to need an identity theft kit from you if you want them back."  IIRC, even Gox gave people fair warning.  I was all done with exchanges before Bitstump came on-line so I was only watching from the sidelines.

Lets not forget about their fee fraud (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597647.0) and lying about producing financial audits every quarter (links down because of hack).

Quote
Additionally, a financial statement audit is in progress.
https://www.bitstamp.net/article/Bitstamp-BTC-Proof-of-Reserves-May-2014/

4. Bitstamp is now performing quarterly financial audits and will post our financial reports on our web site.
https://www.bitstamp.net/article/Statement-by-Bitstamp-regarding-MtGox-insolv/
Ive been asking for that completed financial audit for 3 months now. About 5 times now, with the last time just a few days ago. Just keep being fobbed off with "its in progress".

It seems it's been rocket science all these years...

I was not referring to MtGox per se, but on the process of transacting with fiat/bitcoin or vice versa through an exchange. If I had a say through the regulation process, I'd propose the obvious:

If no transaction is on the ledger, it must be declared as illegal and the person(s) involved should be hunted down for a fraud.

Simple as that.

Well, that may make sense from the bitcoiners' perspective; but society as a whole would see no reason to pass such a law. Transactions off the bitcoin blockchain, governed by private or public contracts, have been going on for millennia, with the support of escrows and notaries, and the backing of laws and courts; and no one sees that as a problem that needs fixing.

But, on the other hand, bitcoin exchanges should be subjected to the same regulations and audits that apply to stock exchanges and banks.  Those regulations were created precisely because stock exchanges were going through the same problems a century ago.

An alternative to government audits could be to make bitcoin exchanges transparent, i.e. requring them to publish the identities of the parties in each trade.  However, there are still many sleazy tricks (like front-running) that the exchanges could pull on their clients and would not get exposed by such transparency.

EDIT: The exchanges have a good excuse for recording trades off the blockchain: traders would not accept having to wait for confirmation on the blockchain.

One of the problems that bitcoin -as a means of transaction, or if you prefer, store of value- came to overcome was the human ''ability'' to treat himself right when others aren't watching. There's a reason for that. Greed has been moving the previous/current monetary system around since the beginning. Certain ''authorities'' had the ''ability'' to serve themselves the best steak and nobody could say differently, because they were powerful enough to shut the mouth that yelled.

Human greed though, invented new ways to overpass the one and most important aspect of bitcoin. The greed elimination was implemented via mathematical encryption. BUT THEN... We invented Exchanges, which can transact without having to post on the ledger (yes, 6 mins confirmations are a fine excuse) and thus ''creating'' money out of thin air. Which is what bitcoin came to eliminate in the first place.

From the bitcoiner's perspective, I'm pro regulating and transparenting ALL exchanges. Sure, they have no reason to put things to the ledger right away - but there are A MILLION ways to put it there, right after the transaction has been done and nobody would care if it's online even 3-4hrs later (if not minutes).

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January 06, 2015, 09:24:32 AM

Thanks to that incompetent Slovenian shit, we blew through a multi-year support level. BFX just became the de facto world exchange.
Localbitcoins is the only reliable price discovery.
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January 06, 2015, 09:26:34 AM

all those mega bears gone real quiet?

all your short profits locked up in fake fiat in an insolvent fake exchange? boo-hoo ... naked shorted and crashed the asset underwriting the exchange holding your fake profits ... what idiots, you are better off at vegas.

hacker who has the coinz makes the rules.
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January 06, 2015, 09:27:31 AM

So many high profile attacks these past few weeks involving Sony, and outages with Xbox Live, etc.

People hear bitcoin and "digital" currency. Having a website go down for a few hours is one thing... but nobody is going to be crazy enough to entrust the protocol to their savings. And the fact that value has been dropping all year doesn't help.

It's really incredible that we're still over $300 at this point. It's not going to last for long.

I saved your quote from yesterday saying we'll be sub 300 by the end of the week.
Going to look a bit stupid aren't you.

Quoting for posterity
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January 06, 2015, 09:28:10 AM

all those mega bears gone real quiet?

all your short profits locked up in fake fiat in an insolvent fake exchange? boo-hoo ... naked shorted and crashed the asset underwriting the exchange holding your fake profits ... what idiots, you are better off at vegas.

hacker who has the coinz makes the rules.
Bitstamp didn't have margin trading.
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January 06, 2015, 09:34:31 AM

Re: naked shorts on Stamp

If the 19K coins never existed, then why the 19k BTC move on the block chain? Is this a true Goxxing where lost coins are blamed on a hack that didn't really happen or that happened ages ago?   

Naked short-selling could help explain this prolonged bear market, but every short (naked or otherwise) must be covered at some point. 

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January 06, 2015, 09:35:00 AM

all those mega bears gone real quiet?

all your short profits locked up in fake fiat in an insolvent fake exchange? boo-hoo ... naked shorted and crashed the asset underwriting the exchange holding your fake profits ... what idiots, you are better off at vegas.

hacker who has the coinz makes the rules.
Bitstamp didn't have margin trading.

now they have NO trading whatsoever! hahahaha
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January 06, 2015, 09:37:18 AM

Re: naked shorts on Stamp

If the 19K coins never existed, then why the 19k BTC move on the block chain? Is this a true Goxxing where lost coins are blamed on a hack that didn't really happen or that happened ages ago?   

Naked short-selling could help explain this prolonged bear market, but every short (naked or otherwise) must be covered at some point. 

you can cover arbitrarily many shorts with non-delivery
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January 06, 2015, 09:37:22 AM

all those mega bears gone real quiet?

all your short profits locked up in fake fiat in an insolvent fake exchange? boo-hoo ... naked shorted and crashed the asset underwriting the exchange holding your fake profits ... what idiots, you are better off at vegas.

hacker who has the coinz makes the rules.
Bitstamp didn't have margin trading.

now they have NO trading whatsoever! hahahaha
lol

Hoping people will be able to get their money out, or it won't be much fun for them.
inca
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January 06, 2015, 09:56:43 AM

all those mega bears gone real quiet?

all your short profits locked up in fake fiat in an insolvent fake exchange? boo-hoo ... naked shorted and crashed the asset underwriting the exchange holding your fake profits ... what idiots, you are better off at vegas.

hacker who has the coinz makes the rules.
Bitstamp didn't have margin trading.

now they have NO trading whatsoever! hahahaha
lol

Hoping people will be able to get their money out, or it won't be much fun for them.

Although I wish loss on noone, there would be something delicious about a certain bear troll with >5000 posts bashing btc finally buying back in at the exact moment bitstamp goes dark Wink
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January 06, 2015, 09:59:24 AM

all those mega bears gone real quiet?

all your short profits locked up in fake fiat in an insolvent fake exchange? boo-hoo ... naked shorted and crashed the asset underwriting the exchange holding your fake profits ... what idiots, you are better off at vegas.

hacker who has the coinz makes the rules.
Bitstamp didn't have margin trading.

now they have NO trading whatsoever! hahahaha
lol

Hoping people will be able to get their money out, or it won't be much fun for them.

Although I wish loss on noone, there would be something delicious about a certain bear troll with >5000 posts bashing btc finally buying back in at the exact moment bitstamp goes dark Wink
That would be very ironic.
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January 06, 2015, 09:59:56 AM


Explanation
cbeast
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January 06, 2015, 10:00:34 AM

I have a craving for mutton.
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January 06, 2015, 10:01:30 AM

- US Marshals auctioned away about 52,000 coins so far out of 173,991 that they recovered from Ulbricht.
 - We now have 18,000 coins that will have to be dumped for sure

The two USMS auctions sold almost 30'000 BTC and exactly 50'000 BTC, respectively.  They have still about 94'000 BTC to auction from Ross's personal holdings.

I believe that a few other bitcoin stashes were seize by the FBI after the SilkRoad bust.  Didn't they get some from SR 2.0?  But they must be much smaller than Ross's.

Those 18'000 coins stolen from Bitstamp will probably sit there for a long time.  They cannot be dumped at most Western exchanges, probably neither at the Chinese ones.  Perhaps they will be be sold at locabitcoins in Siberia or other faraway land?
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January 06, 2015, 10:06:20 AM

This is our final warning to create a new model for exchanges.

distributed models like https://bitsquare.io/ could work well.
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