Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

People buying on localbitcoins are fucking retards.

I mean, I can perfectly understand people SELLING bitcoins there (you get a premium and you launder money perfectly if you are a criminal), but BUYING THEM there?
Are you an idiot? Why the hell would you pay a lot more for your coins if they might be stolen coins everybody is tracking in the blockchain?



I guess the most retarded combo would be: "investor" in bitcoins bought on localbitcoins and r/bitcoin enthusiast.
Like, it can't get anymore retarded than that lol

[1714236060]

1714236060

[macsga]

... The will keep raping Bitcoin till it's dead.

And, perhaps, after.  Necrorape's a thing u know.

Nah pl0x, g1v sum m0ar d3t4ilz plz... Which part are you? the dead or the other?

Your tears are delicious, Bitcoiner

Cmon pl0x, admit it; you're in luv with bitcoin...

[Cassius]

bam ! ignored

bam ! ignored

bam ! bam! bam !

forever f U doom trolls

keep on embarrassing yourself.

i may be delusional, but i fucking worked hard for being able to afford this. you are just scum, why else would you be here?

(dont answer, i got you all on ignore)

 

Place got a lot better since I ignored shroomskit and lamb. Pointless repetition, worse than igorr.

[macsga]

People buying on localbitcoins are fucking retards.

I mean, I can perfectly understand people SELLING them there (you get a premium and you launder money perfectly), but BUYING THEM there?
Are you an idiot? Why the hell would you pay a lot more for your coins if they might be stolen coins everybody is tracking in the blockchain?



I guess the most retarded combo would be: "investor" in bitcoins bought on localbitcoins and r/bitcoin enthusiast.
Like, it can't get anymore retarded than that lol

Seriously? In some places it's EXTREMELY difficult to buy bitcoins other than that. As for the tracking, there's a MILLION (known) ways to mix stolen bitcoins prior selling them (not counting unknown). Besides, localbitcoins is anonymous. Some people want to stay that way. Try buying anonymously from an exchange. Yeah; can't be done.

[NotLambchop]

...
Cmon pl0x, admit it; you're in luv with bitcoin...

BitChick bought more Beanies Bitcoin yesterday @288.  I hope her hubby don't beat her...

[NotLambchop]

... Besides, localbitcoins is anonymous. Some people want to stay that way. Try buying anonymously from an exchange. Yeah; can't be done.

Bitcoin.  Where petty criminals come to breed.

[Richy_T]

Bitfinex                                             Bitstamp

Just testing. Does look better.

Yup. Though your titles are not different font-size compatible. I'm not sure if tables would help, they were a little weird last time I messed with them.

[InvestorPerson]

wtf... i'm making so much money..

Eat this buddy...

she's not impressed as he's throwing buttcoins at her 

[JorgeStolfi]

Bitstamp is showing itself to be very reliable. I'd trust it over Kraken.

Curiously Kraken too is based in San Francisco.  And Jesse Powell, now Kraken's CEO, flew to Tokyo in 2011 to help fix MtGOX's sowtware & databases after the 2011 hack.   

Could it be that San Francisco is the Harvard of bitcoin exchange medicine? 

[TheKoziTwo]

People buying on localbitcoins are fucking retards.

I mean, I can perfectly understand people SELLING them there (you get a premium and you launder money perfectly), but BUYING THEM there?
Are you an idiot? Why the hell would you pay a lot more for your coins if they might be stolen coins everybody is tracking in the blockchain?



I guess the most retarded combo would be: "investor" in bitcoins bought on localbitcoins and r/bitcoin enthusiast.
Like, it can't get anymore retarded than that lol

Seriously? In some places it's EXTREMELY difficult to buy bitcoins other than that. As for the tracking, there's a MILLION (known) ways to mix stolen bitcoins prior selling them (not counting unknown). Besides, localbitcoins is anonymous. Some people want to stay that way. Try buying anonymously from an exchange. Yeah; can't be done.

Not only that, some people prefer to buy bitcoin anonymously without having them tied to their bank account or scanned identity documents.

[ChartBuddy]

Bitfinex

Bitstamp

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Not long ago a guy posted maths about bitcoin only needing to be around 27 dollars to use it to switch from one fiat currency to another with a sustained amount of transactions. If you remove speculation out of the equation. That's scary Willy !!!!

Yes. If there was no speculation (that is, no one holding coins for the expectation of price increases, at any time scale) then the price would be P = V * T / N, where V is the volume of e-payments using bitcoin (in USD per day), T is the mean time between re-use of the same coins (in days), and N is the total number of BTC in circulation. 

At present BiTPay is believed to process about 1 million USD/day; so V = 10 M $/day seems to be an optimistic guess for all e-payments with bitcoin.  The time T is harder to estimate, but it should be less than 30 days (remember, the assumption is that no one holds BTC for longer than necessary).   The number N is about 13.6 million.  So, if it weren't for speculative holding, P should be less than 23 USD/BTC today.

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Jokes aside:

My friends, it's time to admit to yourselves that bitcoin is not the champion of freedom or the efficient disruptive technology you thought it was.
Is not salvation from anything.

It was just a speculative bubble that sucked many people while smart money was profiting from having invested early and cashing out at the right time.

I like to troll and have a laugh in here (although the arguments I post are perfectly valid and you are invited to contradict me), but to be honest I don't like seeing a lot of people being crushed by pump and dumps and wild speculation while their dreams are being slowly destroyed.



But in the end, if you followed rule number one (never invest more than you are afford to lose), it's all good, we all make mistakes in life.
Time to grow and move on.


Life ain't all about greed and money, you know?  

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I think short-selling will never end. It's a powerful negative feedback loop. Bitcoiners are killing Bitcoin

Correction: "Bitcoiners", i.e. Bitcoin market participants, some - but not all - of which hold an optimistic long-term view on the network itself, are using the available financial tools to bring price back to a level at which inflow of fresh capital roughly matches the network's inherent monetary base inflation, adjusted (both up and down, but lately mainly: down) by longer-term speculative expectations of the market.

Oh. That is heavy

[YourMother]

Take the Bulltard's head and just...

[JorgeStolfi]

Jesus Christ! Do i need to explain it again?

Look there are 4 types of Bitcoin users left:

The consumer: This is a very, very small %. They buy coins and spend them. Regardless of the price.

The bagholder: a small group of delusional idiots who keep yelling that we're about to go up, no matter how bad the market is.

These 2 groups don't control the price.
The 2 other groups do control the price and are the reason we're going down.

The early adopter: this big group of people just keeps cashing out. The smart ones did it early last year, the less smart ones have been doing it the rest of the months and even today.

The trader: by far the biggest group. This is the pump and dump you keep on seeing. Sell high, buy low. But the lows keep getting lower. Right now 270 is high. So guess what, they will take the price to 220 to buy low. They will repeat this all the way to 0.  

The group we don't have and which we need are new users. Well, after 6 years we can safely say they won't show up anymore.

That is a good analysis, except that "early adopter" should be "divestor", the guy who sells or spends to reduce his BTC holdings; and the last group should be "The investor" instead of "The trader".

The investor is whoever buys BTC today in exchange of old money, goods, or services, in order to start or increase his BTC holdings.

The traders are like consumers, they play on both sides of the board: as investors whenever they buy, and as divestors when they sell.  Different traders may act more in one role than in the other, depending on how their BTC holdings evolve.

There is one fifth group, The miners.  In principle we can assume that they sell 3600 BTC every day at the current market price.  Some miners may also play as investors, by retaining some of their coins, or as divestors, by selling saved coins.  These two roles can be treated as if they were distinct persons and can be lumped with the non-mining investors and divestors, rspectively.

So, in order to keep the price stable, one should have I = M + D, where I is the amount of new money that the investors take out of their pocket to put into the system in exchange of BTC, M is the amount of money that the miners pocket, and D is the amount of money that the divestors (your "early adopters") pocket.  All these quantities should be expressed in USD/day.  Goods or services that are directly exchanged for bitcoins should be counted as their market prices in USD.

Today M is known, it is a bit less than 1 M USD/day.  There is no way of estimating D, but we may guess 1 M USD/day too.  So the investors (recall, people who increase their BTC holdings) must give 2 million USD/day to the miners and the divestors.

The miner's profit is some fraction of M, perhaps still 50%, that is 500'000 USD/day; the other 500'000 day go to mostly to equipment makers and electrical utilites.  The profit of the divestors is even harder to estimate than D itself.  Of course, only the early adopters among them are making a profit, while divestors who bought since November 2013 are only cutting their losses.  

[dinofelis]

Not long ago a guy posted maths about bitcoin only needing to be around 27 dollars to use it to switch from one fiat currency to another with a sustained amount of transactions. If you remove speculation out of the equation. That's scary Willy !!!!

Yes. If there was no speculation (that is, no one holding coins for the expectation of price increases, at any time scale) then the price would be P = V * T / N, where V is the volume of e-payments using bitcoin (in USD per day), T is the mean time between re-use of the same coins (in days), and N is the total number of BTC in circulation. 

At present BiTPay is believed to process about 1 million USD/day; so V = 10 M $/day seems to be an optimistic guess for all e-payments with bitcoin.  The time T is harder to estimate, but it should be less than 30 days (remember, the assumption is that no one holds BTC for longer than necessary).   The number N is about 13.6 million.  So, if it weren't for speculative holding, P should be less than 23 USD/BTC today.

Indeed.  Monetary formula !  That's also why I say that the pure currency adoption fundamental would lead bitcoin to a single or double digit price, and that the current price is still way way over its *current* fundamental, but rather a speculation on a future fundamental (or pure "bigger fool" speculation as it is).

It is also why I keep repeating that the real merchant adoption of bitcoin is a true fundamental, but which is not yet very high.

It doesn't say anything about future price evolution in the relatively short term, of course, because that depends on the (changing) opinion - speculation  - people make about its future fundamentals.  It is however not something that can be guessed from the past price time series, which is why I think that technical analysis is not appropriate here.

It only indicates a "true bottom".

As your numbers are reasonable, but still guesswork, in fact that price is also guesswork.
It could be a factor 10 off in both directions.
But it shouldn't be a factor 100 off.  It gives an idea of a fundamental of bitcoin.

[Fatman3001]

Take the Bulltard's head and just...


[Had to delete disgusting gif]

Why? They are the one's losing money. Why do you give a rats ass you worthless piece of shit?

Calling people bulltards and beartards is just plain retarded. If you disagree with someone, please say so. But this harassment is getting old.

[Crap! This troll got under my skin. Solution: ignore]

[ChartBuddy]

Bitfinex

Bitstamp

Explanation

[magicmexican]

The biggest and clear difference is that it seems that all the buyers are gone from the market. Back in the day, even during huge crashes and stuff, they were just hidding and waiting, thats why we saw people trying to catch falling knives, big rebounds, bear traps, etc

Now its like - "price is low? meh" and low volume sells continue. I bet even if someone fat finger sells btc all the way to 70$ or something noone will be super excited to buy it.