DaRude
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 2778
Merit: 1791
In order to dump coins one must have coins
|
 |
January 11, 2015, 06:13:18 PM |
|
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels  seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
"In a nutshell, the network works like a distributed
timestamp server, stamping the first transaction to spend a coin. It
takes advantage of the nature of information being easy to spread but
hard to stifle." -- Satoshi
|
|
|
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wekkel
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:14:07 PM |
|
The best solution for low prices is low prices. At some point in this decline, demand will pick up. Holding fiat ready...
|
|
|
|
|
podyx
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1035
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:16:22 PM |
|
Few people actually seem to think this is the bottom despite the low prices, that's what leads me to believe we are entering a bullmarket right now. I still think we should have 1 last leg down though
|
|
|
|
|
macsga
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:20:11 PM |
|
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.
Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November. And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling". But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price. And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out. This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year. That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc. It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands". Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day. In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price. @JorgeStolfi Looking on a chart should be according to the respective timescale. Time is of the essence my friend. I'd propose to take a look here: https://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed-min-year?showDataPoints=false×pan=356days&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0Makes a difference when you look it from different perspective, no? |
|
|
|
|
|
bad trader
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:20:41 PM |
|
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation. |
|
|
|
|
|
pjviitas
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:22:23 PM |
|
Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem. We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time. Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all.  I have to agree...panicking is not the answer. Even if BTC goes to fractions of a dollar it can bounce back to $10,000 the following year. BTC is not controlled by any bank or government agency...it's value can be anything. I think if people stopped treating BTC like fiat there would be a lot less panic. |
|
|
|
|
DaRude
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2778
Merit: 1791
In order to dump coins one must have coins
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:23:42 PM |
|
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.
Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November. And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling". But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price. And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out. This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year. That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc. It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands". Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day. In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price. Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question. |
|
|
|
|
|
samsonn25
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:25:30 PM |
|
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best The level you expect is much higher? $1000-$2000? Now is $272 2 years ago is was only $12 |
|
|
|
|
|
samsonn25
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:27:25 PM |
|
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.
Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November. And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling". But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price. And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out. This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year. That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc. It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands". Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day. In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price. Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question. Assuming demand doesn't drop. Meaning that there still has to be more buyers than sellers for price to rise. |
|
|
|
|
DaRude
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2778
Merit: 1791
In order to dump coins one must have coins
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:31:01 PM |
|
Ultimately I think the only way to stop the constant crashing is if the international buyers find enough interest in bitcoin to buy a large chunk of the coins back from China.
Independently of whether the Chinese exchanges are solvent or fake or whatever, I still believe that lots of coins (at least 500 000 BTC, perhaps a couple million) went from "Western" hand to Chinese hands last November. And I also believe that those coins have been coming back to the West since then (via arbitragers), as the Chinese are gradually losing interest in "bitcoin gambling". But the Chinese day-traders still have enough coins in the exchanges to set the price. And I believe that the price has been generally dropping since then (apart from the two mini-bubbles I mentioned earlier) because there aren't enough people in the West willing to buy those coins that the Chinese want to sell -- plus the 3600 coins that are mined each day, plus the unknow number of old cheap coins that early adopters may be cashing out. This chart shows that each day about 4 million bitcoin-days are destroyed, considering only coins that have not moved in the past year. That could man people moving 11'000 coins that were not moved for 1 year, or 5500 coins that were not moved by 2 years, etc. It is hard to interpret these numbers, because "coins moving" does not mean "coins changing hands". Even so, it seems quite possible that early adopters are cashing out 1000 BTC/day. In that case, the people who are starting or increasing their BTC holdings would have to give 270'000 US$/day to those early adopters, in addition to the 1 M US$/day they must give to the miners, in order to maintain the price. Selling BTC1k is not sustainable, you must have coins to sell coins, sooner or later that source will dry up. Supply of BTC3.6k/day will drop 50% in one year as intended. Both points suggest that bear market will end at certain time even if demand doesn't rise but stays constant, where these points will meet is the true question. Assuming demand doesn't drop. Meaning that there still has to be more buyers than sellers for price to rise. Well yeah think it's basic supply/demand problem. Supply is pretty much guaranteed to drop. So demand goes up=price up demand constant,=price up demand drops less than supply=price up demand drops more than supply=price down. Place your bets accordingly. I for one would love to see centralized miners go out of business and start closing farms. |
|
|
|
|
|
JorgeStolfi
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:31:04 PM |
|
Sorry, what is the point? I did not say anything about that number increasing or decreasing. I just used its current value. However, eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, and some 150 M in Feb/2014. I wonder what those events were. By the way, note that the 0 level in that chart is the second line from bottom, not the first one. |
|
|
|
|
|
esse83
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:36:22 PM |
|
Sorry, what is the point? I did not say anything about that number increasing or decreasing. I just used its current value. However, eyeballing that chart, some 200 M BTC-day were destroyed in Mar/2014, and some 150 M in Feb/2014. I wonder what those events were. By the way, note that the 0 level in that chart is the second line from bottom, not the first one. Mark Karpeles moved BTC200k of old coins around that time. edit: https://blockchain.info/address/1KecDYadohxk8MCDqKF8SBEMhCUNveAsCj |
|
|
|
|
|
JorgeStolfi
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:42:45 PM |
|
That "old format wallet" could be it, yes: 200 kBTC that had not been moved since the end of mid 2011 (about 1000 days before). |
|
|
|
|
DeadCoin
Sr. Member
Offline
Activity: 1246
Merit: 261
★ Investor | Trader | Promoter
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:43:09 PM |
|
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. Looks like China is dragging everyone down, over 2% spread between Hooboy and Finex. Well the good part is these low prices should fuck up the centralized miners who i'm guessing are behind these daily 2k dumps trying to stay afloat. Free market at it's best Bulls (bag holders, scammers, early adopters, cultists, trolls) want you to believe that. Just look at this topic https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=767255.0There should be crazy strong buying pressure below 300, but guess what, nothing happens. Bubble is still deflating. Paying almost $300 for internet funny money is still ridiculously overpriced. |
|
|
|
|
|
ShroomsKit
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:45:48 PM |
|
Funny part is that people seems to forgot, that Bitcoin price can double in less than month with not a big problem. We saw already many rallies. Worrying about low price is just waste of time. Sit back, relax. get money to buy more BTC. That's all. Sure. Just too bad it won't happen anymore. You should be very worried about the low price. Or the fact that Bitcoin turned into nothing more than some pump and dump coin like the 1000 alt coins out there. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ShroomsKit
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:47:29 PM |
|
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation. And monday suddenly everyone starts buying for the first time in 12 months? |
|
|
|
|
samson
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2097
Merit: 1068
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:49:10 PM |
|
Hmm i've expected a much higher demand at these levels seems like no one wants to trade at these prices. It's a weekend and Bitstamp is likely to have a fiat shortage right now. I don't get why China thinks a weekend is a good time to dump aside from manipulation. And monday suddenly everyone starts buying for the first time in 12 months? Not a chance |
|
|
|
|
|
samsonn25
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:49:59 PM |
|
That "old format wallet" could be it, yes: 200 kBTC that had not been moved since the end of mid 2011 (about 1000 days before). Huge |
|
|
|
|
YourMother
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1281
Merit: 1046
|
|
January 11, 2015, 06:51:08 PM |
|
A la la la long!   |
|
|
|
|
|
Poll
