Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

I maintain that we still need a global currency crisis / collapse followed by a flood into precious metals. Once people realise that BTC and its derivatives are as good as precious metals and easier to use we will start to see real commerce take place in crypto. See you there, might have grey hair by then. But these dayys have been fun. We were there dudes!!

What drivatives has Bitcoin got? I heard they helped cause the last stock market crash. Fuck derivatives.

Take your meds mate. I meant altcoins (generally derived from the BTC source code)

Good, the last thing Bitcoin needs is derivatives (like the debt packages in the stock market).

Well, I saw a gambling site in Australia that lets you bet on whether the bitcoin price will go up or down in some future interval.  They call that a "binary bitcoin derivative" or something like that.  

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[heartastack]

I maintain that we still need a global currency crisis / collapse followed by a flood into precious metals. Once people realise that BTC and its derivatives are as good as precious metals and easier to use we will start to see real commerce take place in crypto. See you there, might have grey hair by then. But these dayys have been fun. We were there dudes!!

What drivatives has Bitcoin got? I heard they helped cause the last stock market crash. Fuck derivatives.

Take your meds mate. I meant altcoins (generally derived from the BTC source code)

Good, the last thing Bitcoin needs is derivatives (like the debt packages in the stock market).

Well, I saw a gambling site in Australia that lets you bet on whether the bitcoin price will go up or down in some future interval.  They call that a "binary bitcoin derivative" or something like that.  

Would be right. We love gambling is Australia. And drinking, of course. And the two combined are a true specialty

[r0ach]

The group we don't have and which we need are new users. Well, after 6 years we can safely say they won't show up anymore.

People will be piling into both gold and bitcoin, but only after the stock market bubble implodes.  My more drawn out post on why:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=915140

[ChartBuddy]

Bitfinex

Bitstamp

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Well ironically the winkelvoss ETF would be a derivative. Their company plans to purchase one BTC for every 5 shares in the etf owned. Unfortunately this is exactly what BTC needs right now to allow the gamblers a regulated environment for purchasing BTC with stupid amounts of money.

Except that the first 200'000 BTC or so will be purchased from the Winkles' personal holdings.  Some of the buyers of those first 1 M shares will be people who could have bought bitcoins at the exchanges instead.  So at first the launch of the ETF may have a negative impact on price.  Only after that 1 M shares is sold will the fund start buying elsewhere, possibly taking bitcoins off open market.

Even then, it is possible that bitcoin holders who are worried about hacking risks will dump their BTC to buy ETF shares.  For that reason, it is possible that the ETF shares will be priced above their nominal BTC value (i.e. BTC in the fund's vaults will be seen as more valuable than BTC in ones's computers).  In that case the ETF may remove some money (the premium) from the open market

EDIT: Meanwhile, people who invested in BTC through SecondMarket's BIT fund are not allowed to get out and not allowed to sell their shares to other suckers investors.

[jl2012]

Well ironically the winkelvoss ETF would be a derivative. Their company plans to purchase one BTC for every 5 shares in the etf owned. Unfortunately this is exactly what BTC needs right now to allow the gamblers a regulated environment for purchasing BTC with stupid amounts of money.

Except that the first 200'000 BTC or so will be purchased from the Winkles' personal holdings.

Source?

[diabLEEca]

People will be piling into both gold and bitcoin, but only after the stock market bubble implodes.  My more drawn out post on why:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=915140

I've read your post and I generally agree with you. Have you got any idea when the implosion could take place, though, or what (if anything in particular) could possibly trigger it?

[samsonn25]

worth noting that the 255 bottom was also the highest 2 digits hexadecimal possible (ff), coincidence?
yes ofc, you trolls, i'm just kidding

Also was close to April 2013 peak.

[Richy_T]

more like the total boredom phase, in which we come to this thread even if we don't expect to get any meaningful insight from it.

That's every day.

[poncho32]

I maintain that we still need a global currency crisis / collapse followed by a flood into precious metals. Once people realise that BTC and its derivatives are as good as precious metals and easier to use we will start to see real commerce take place in crypto. See you there, might have grey hair by then. But these dayys have been fun. We were there dudes!!

What drivatives has Bitcoin got? I heard they helped cause the last stock market crash. Fuck derivatives.

Take your meds mate. I meant altcoins (generally derived from the BTC source code)

Good, the last thing Bitcoin needs is derivatives (like the debt packages in the stock market).

Well ironically the winkelvoss ETF would be a derivative. Their company plans to purchase one BTC for every 5 shares in the etf owned. Unfortunately this is exactly what BTC needs right now to allow the gamblers a regulated environment for purchasing BTC with stupid amounts of money.

The more I think about it, the more grave is BTC's immediate future. I believe that ETF was already speculatively priced into BTC too which is also deflating with all the rest of the bad news. There is still big money in BTC and these are the guys doing the mini pumps followed by the massive dumps. And as said they will do this all the way down to zero or until they are out of the market. They need to get their money back and they don't care about you, me, or Bitcoin.

Both derivatives and shorting ought to be good for Bitcoin if only the currency (not only the technology) gained some significant traction with some kind of real use case. But there doesn't seem to be much adoption other than waves of shorting traders.

It depends what sort of derivatives you are talking about. The type I am against are like the packages of debt, the source of which the buyers don't know. I heard the last big bank crash was partially caused by traders buying packages of mortgage debt, but they didn't know it was mortgage debt. People had been given mortgages who had not got a hope in hell of paying and someone put that debt into a derivative and sold it.

The winkelvoss ETF might be regarded as a derivative, but it's a completely different kind of derivative to the dodgy ones available before the last bank crash.

[Gyrsur]

EDIT: just kidding!

[YourMother]

Holy Shit! Page 666

[pjviitas]

Is it safe to assume that since around July 2014 there have been more sellers than buyers of Bitcoin?

And if so, this is the main reason that Bitcoin has steadily decreased in value since then?

Is it possible that Bitcoin is simply in a deflationary cycle?

Aren't deflationary cycles one of the features of Bitcoin?

Is it possible that what we are going through is a "feature" and not a "bug"?

I don't see why people that believe in Bitcoin are so against seeing it go to fractions of a dollar...maybe its supposed to be this way?

I think everyone would be fine if they stopped treating Bitcoin like fiat.

[JorgeStolfi]

Well ironically the winkelvoss ETF would be a derivative. Their company plans to purchase one BTC for every 5 shares in the etf owned. Unfortunately this is exactly what BTC needs right now to allow the gamblers a regulated environment for purchasing BTC with stupid amounts of money.

Except that the first 200'000 BTC or so will be purchased from the Winkles' personal holdings.

Source?

They are rumored to have 200'000 BTC.  The SEC filing says that the initial offer will be 1 million shares each representing 0.2 BTC.

Why do you think they (or anyone) would want to create a bitcoin ETF?

[ChartBuddy]

Bitfinex

Bitstamp

Explanation

[cmacwiz]

...

I don't see why people that believe in Bitcoin are so against seeing it go to fractions of a dollar...maybe its supposed to be this way?

I think everyone would be fine if they stopped treating Bitcoin like fiat.

What are you talking about. If I believe in bitcoin, then I want many people to use so I do not have to transact in fiat ever again.
You're in a spec thread where people  treat btc like fiat and make profit trading

[mmitech]

Well ironically the winkelvoss ETF would be a derivative. Their company plans to purchase one BTC for every 5 shares in the etf owned. Unfortunately this is exactly what BTC needs right now to allow the gamblers a regulated environment for purchasing BTC with stupid amounts of money.

Except that the first 200'000 BTC or so will be purchased from the Winkles' personal holdings.

Source?

They are rumored to have 200'000 BTC.  The SEC filing says that the initial offer will be 1 million shares each representing 0.2 BTC.

Why do you think they (or anyone) would want to create a bitcoin ETF?

They are just trying so desperately to sell their bitcoins, and the ETF will make it easier for them (although unfair) , you know the saying: "a fool looking for a greater fool". I don't like their approach and second market's approach either... these companies are turning Bitcoin to everything it was created against.

But Monkeys don't give a shit as long as you promise them bananas.

[r0ach]

People will be piling into both gold and bitcoin, but only after the stock market bubble implodes.  My more drawn out post on why:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=915140

I've read your post and I generally agree with you. Have you got any idea when the implosion could take place, though, or what (if anything in particular) could possibly trigger it?

The stock market bubble will implode after this trading strategy ceases to function:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4

Nobody knows the answer to things like this since it's all testing the boundaries of Keynesianism, or how long can a population be held hostage and forced into certain asset classes to avoid loss of wealth.  It's a "greater fool" situation relying on multiple parties, quasi-government kosher reserve and traders/investors, much of which is dumb money retirement funds.  

Obviously, they'll initiate a controlled demolition to enrich themselves and their cronies on insider information as soon as the Keynesian policy is completely unsustainable, but only Warren Buffet or Jimmy Buffet knows when that happens.

[NotLambchop]

...
But Monkeys don't give a shit as long as you promise them bananas.

After over a year of not getting any bananas, the monkeys would realize they're getting gypped.  Not Bitcoiners tho.

[mmitech]

...
But Monkeys don't give a shit as long as you promise them bananas.

After over a year of not getting any bananas, the monkeys would realize they're getting gypped.  Not Bitcoiners tho.

don't forget that a monkey is still a monkey