Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sleger]

Which would explain why no one seems able to predict the price, even in the short term.

Such person able to do this would not be posting it here anyways, so you would not be aware.

[Trolfi]

Hello, Jorge.

Honest question: do you agree with the estimation that the more time lapses and bitcoin continues to develop and entrench itself, the less likely it is to outright fail?

[Tzupy]

...
I have already said that IF that happens (or something else convincing enough) I'm certainly long.
But right now could go either way. I'm just gonna follow the current wherever it goes.

I believe in a bullish scenario we are in a similar position with the days preceding the mid November 2011 correction to 2$.
Of course, I am 100% fiat and looking for a good shorting entry.

[bad trader]

Bitfinex seems to have some fun glitch again.



It looks like it may have tricked some bots into selling.

[Wings1987]

Bitfinex seems to have some fun glitch again.



It looks like it may have tricked some bots into selling.

Doesn't show that on my screen.

[bad trader]

Bitfinex seems to have some fun glitch again.



It looks like it may have tricked some bots into selling.

Doesn't show that on my screen.

It's not happening any more. It was like a small ask was appearing and disappearing way below the bids and there was some volume during that time and the price dropped a bit.

edit: I probably shouldn't have cropped this from my shot:

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[SERVERIA]

Something is happening... the moon is right around the corner?

[adamstgBit]

Hello, Jorge.

Honest question: do you agree with the estimation that the more time lapses and bitcoin continues to develop and entrench itself, the less likely it is to outright fail?

+1

kinda hoping Jorge writes up a wall of text exploring this question.

[macsga]

Which would explain why no one seems able to predict the price, even in the short term.

Such person able to do this would not be posting it here anyways, so you would not be aware.

I wouldn't bet on it. Most people with "inside knowledge" are lurking in forums/threads like this in order to decide when it's the "right moment". Judging good sometimes won't cut it though. I know certain individuals that are relentless on accumulating every-single-btc when they're at it. I personally don't agree on such a method, but greed is present in our physiology and nothing can prevent us from letting the beast inside, get a good look around.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Honest question: do you agree with the estimation that the more time lapses and bitcoin continues to develop and entrench itself, the less likely it is to outright fail?

Well, first, I doubt that it is actually "developing" and "entrenching itself".  There are many companies that need it to survive, and several hundred millions available for marketing and PR efforts (like the St. Petersburg Bowl, fat discounts for bitcoin purchases, slots on Bloomberg, etc.).  However, the few minimally reliable and meaningful data about adoption do not show that it is growing, and hint that it may be decreasing.

Second, the failure modes that I can imagine are not going to be detectable in advance.  A killer bug may surface, a much better remote payment method may arise, the price may drop further (even if there will be another bubble or two before that) causing most of the miners to stop, there may be a successful majority miner attack, the US may ban it,  etc.  More likely, competition from other digital payment systems will cause the user base to shrink.

Bitcoin's economic structure is unsustainable because mining is being supported by new investors (to the tune of 800'000 USD/day) instead of its users; and there is no plausible roadmap to fix that situation that will not go through a price and network collapse.  Moreover, the radical "free market" system that is supposed to define the transaction fees in that post-reward era, with unpredictable fees and no service guarantee, cannot possibly work.  Because of the mirage of "deflationary currency", its price is 90% o more due to speculation, rather than use as currency.  The huge and unpredictable price swings are a consequence of that.   And so on.

Another possible outcome is a mining cartel taking over and  becoming a de facto central authority, with power to change the protocol, set minimum fees, cancel transactions and seize funds, etc.. Believers have convinced themselves that such takeover is impossible because the "economic majority" has control.  I have looked into those arguments and I believe thay are just wishful thinking.  The only choice that the "economic majority" will have is to accept the cartel's takeover (and tell everybody that it is actually "good for bitcoin", hoping that the coin will not lose much value), or to lose everything.  If that happens, perhaps bitcoin will continue to exist, and will continue to be used as a speculative intrument (as it is in China) and/or as a payment system.  However, if it becomes centralized, it would have failed in its goal.
 

[JorgeStolfi]

Which would explain why no one seems able to predict the price, even in the short term.

Such person able to do this would not be posting it here anyways, so you would not be aware.

That's true. 

[adamstgBit]

...
there will be another bubble or two
...

agreed
 

[ssmc2]

...
there will be another bubble or two
...

agreed
 

George-y is a bull!

[Trolfi]

Honest question: do you agree with the estimation that the more time lapses and bitcoin continues to develop and entrench itself, the less likely it is to outright fail?

Well, first, I doubt that it is actually "developing" and "entrenching itself".  There are many companies that need it to survive, and several hundred millions available for marketing and PR efforts (like the St. Petersburg Bowl, fat discounts for bitcoin purchases, slots on Bloomberg, etc.).  However, the few minimally reliable and meaningful data about adoption do not show that it is growing, and hint that it may be decreasing.

Second, the failure modes that I can imagine are not going to be detectable in advance.  A killer bug may surface, a much better remote payment method may arise, the price may drop further (even if there will be another bubble or two before that) causing most of the miners to stop, there may be a successful majority miner attack, the US may ban it,  etc.  More likely, competition from other digital payment systems will cause the user base to shrink.

Bitcoin's economic structure is unsustainable because mining is being supported by new investors (to the tune of 800'000 USD/day) instead of its users; and there is no plausible roadmap to fix that situation that will not go through a price and network collapse.  Moreover, the radical "free market" system that is supposed to define the transaction fees in that post-reward era, with unpredictable fees and no service guarantee, cannot possibly work.  Because of the mirage of "deflationary currency", its price is 90% o more due to speculation, rather than use as currency.  The huge and unpredictable price swings are a consequence of that.   And so on.

Another possible outcome is a mining cartel taking over and  becoming a de facto central authority, with power to change the protocol, set minimum fees, cancel transactions and seize funds, etc.. Believers have convinced themselves that such takeover is impossible because the "economic majority" has control.  I have looked into those arguments and I believe thay are just wishful thinking.  The only choice that the "economic majority" will have is to accept the cartel's takeover (and tell everybody that it is actually "good for bitcoin", hoping that the coin will not lose much value), or to lose everything.  If that happens, perhaps bitcoin will continue to exist, and will continue to be used as a speculative intrument (as it is in China) and/or as a payment system.  However, if it becomes centralized, it would have failed in its goal.
 

Interesting. Thank you for your answer.

[JorgeStolfi]

... there will be another bubble or two ...

George-y is a bull!

You must have missed this:
[ if the image shows truncated, curse @theymos and click on it to see it whole. ]

[nioc]

I haven't owned a toaster for 20 years and have no plans for getting one.

[gentlemand]

Another possible outcome is a mining cartel taking over and  becoming a de facto central authority, with power to change the protocol, set minimum fees, cancel transactions and seize funds, etc.
 

21 inc is a fine candidate for that. No idea how they make the mining work, but I assume they know how.

There could be tens of millions of devices slaved to their pool and on top of that most of the people hashing away won't actually think through what they're doing.

The present miners are free to point their power anywhere else within a second. That would not be the case if 21 decided they wanted to have a try at 'improving' the protocol.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation