Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

Why wont the price go to $101.

because over ten thousand coins would need to be sold in order to reach 101

[Kazu]

Its got to, everything says overbought. IDK about below $100, there is a big wall forming.

$101 seemed like a safe bet but its all stalled at like $105-104.

[Traktion]

@prof7bit

I guess you're asking Traktion, since he suggested the pattern, but even though I didn't agree with him, your "find in less than 2 minutes" criterion is a bit unfair. Depending on how well trained you are, it could take you 30 seconds or 20 minutes to find a pattern, irrespective of whether it is really there or not.

When Traktion first posted, he also had a 15 min view. I'm not experienced in determining candlestick patterns, but I *could* see how (on the 15 min view) a left shoulder and a head had materialized, and a right shoulder was possibly forming.

I mainly disagreed because of the volume acting atypical.

Sure, the volume was a bit dodgy (especially on Bitstamp), but I thought it was worth a punt. The head and the right shoulder panned out as expected, but there wasn't the full reversal back to the neck line. It was still worth trading (for me anyway).

EDIT: Although we are heading towards the neckline now on Bitstamp... the pattern is rough though, granted.

[QuestionAuthority]

It will, very soon. Unfortunately it may drop below 100, which would be a real mess.

I hate the psychological barriers in trading. 99, 100 and 101 are only 2 apart but very different from 102, 103, and 104.

[ChartBuddy]

[adamstgBit]

Its got to, everything says overbought. IDK about below $100, there is a big wall forming.

$101 seemed like a safe bet but its all stalled at like $105-104.

I think not!



 

[Kazu]

Wow weekly

[adamstgBit]

Wow weekly

fine



 

[Richy_T]

Why wont the price go to $101.

because over ten thousand coins would need to be sold in order to reach 101

Except that's not actually the case since a lot of bids would get pulled.

It should be possibly to calculate the ratio of predicted coins to actual coins to give a more accurate view of market depth. Has anyone done this?

[adamstgBit]

Why wont the price go to $101.

because over ten thousand coins would need to be sold in order to reach 101

Except that's not actually the case since a lot of bids would get pulled.

It should be possibly to calculate the ratio of predicted coins to actual coins to give a more accurate view of market depth. Has anyone done this?

maybe if someone dumps 10k at once... but more than likely more then 10k coins will be traded above 101 over the next 24 hours, and depth will be more like 15K BTC to 101, after this 24hour period

 

[rpietila]

Its got to, everything says overbought. IDK about below $100, there is a big wall forming.

$101 seemed like a safe bet but its all stalled at like $105-104.

I think not!



 

+1

[fr33d0miz3r]

I'll just leave this here:

[adamstgBit]

I'll just leave this here:

orly,

your sure its not the bear trap of in the institutional investor stage?

[fr33d0miz3r]

your sure its not the bear trap of in the institutional investor stage?

nice joke

[MonadTran]

I'll just leave this here:

We might have passed the "return to normal" phase somewhere in late April, when it jumped back to about 150. The "despair" is probably early July, and, according to Adam's chart, we are back at the mean.

[rampantparanoia]

I'll just leave this here:

[fr33d0miz3r]

and, according to Adam's chart, we are back at the mean.

and, as Adam said, we are going to 180 in 5 business days  

[ElectricMucus]

your sure its not the bear trap of in the institutional investor stage?

Almost.
I've seen two teenagers watching the Bitcoin price on their phones while waiting for the tram the day the bubble popped. I think that is sufficiently "Public" don't you say?

[ChartBuddy]

[RationalSpeculator]

You wouldn't believe how I hope for that. The constant bombardment by bear talk made me reluctant to restock after localbitcoins Sells, so I'm sitting on this smelly pile of euro cash. A drop to 50 or even 30 would be an elegant opportunity to get rid of that.

However, I don't believe in it. This is not 2011.

I've come to the same opinion and have very little hope for $30 to be reached as I realized recently that even in 2011 the bottom ($2) was twice as high as the previous top before the bubble ($1). Twice as high as the top before the bubble ($30) would be $60 now but since $60 has been touched twice already I think chances are 50/50 it won't happen again. I realize this is contradictory to the bubble collapse theory which points to $40 only to be reached in a few months, as SlipperySlope explains so well. But he too is open to a reflating of the bubble before it deflates fully.

The gox exodus doesn't explain the strong buying happening on bitstamp. Someone wants coins really bad there and I highly doubt this to be arbitrageurs as the risk seems too high for their fiat stuck on gox. Is it just a pump and dumper or is it the rich taking a small position? I'm betting on the latter as all gates are open for them now. Bitcoin has proven to survive the 2011 depression, and the recent bubble gave bitcoin mainstream attention and above all legal approval from different government institutions. The price halving from the top is likely enough for them to take a small position already 'just in case it doesn't drop further'.  

Impaler, I think it was, also gave some good counterarguments one must look at volume and not time to see whether the deflating of the bubble is over. Based on volume it is. Also he confirmed how the rich are able to absorb more price volatitlity. Indeed, who cares if it's only a small percentage of your capital that you buy at $100 or $50 if the potential of it is to tenfold in 2-3 years? Most important is to take the small exposure, and not be left out.

I think it's time to become bullish again, though I certainly might be proven wrong.

Great post rationalspeculator!

Still a 50% chance that it will go down, and a 50% chance that it will go up, is NOT a good speculation. Be careful. Better to speculate also on gold and silver right now since there at least chances are higher it will go up rather than down, that's a good speculation. Always keep a position in bitcoin though since long term it's still the best speculation ever. Current exposure of my portfolio to bitcoin 20% and 5% cash ready on exchange to buy on corrections. Gold & silver also 25%.