Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[thoughtfan]

Hi guys, been part-time lurking for some time now but finally got something to say

Just a thanks really to all who have been buying bitcoin to stash away right through the downtrend.  I'm not saying the downtrend is necessarily done but I'm not finding the arguments of those reckoning on $20-30 etc. persuasive - largely because they appear to be on the basis of repeating patterns and TA - and I just don't buy either for this unique bitcoin market.  However, I've enjoyed guessing for the fun of it where the price is going to go and when and would have done OK buying fiat to sell again at a profit had I not been primarily a 'buy-and-hold' man myself.

But what I haven't been doing during this period is putting new fiat in and have therefore accumulated a fair bit ready to buy back in when I'm reasonably confident the downtrend is over.  I'm actually enjoying watching the price go up even though I'm not on board (with the new money), fine to let those who are prepared to take the higher risk try and catch the bottom and initial turnaround to get the cheapest prices whilst I stand aside prepared to pay more for additional confidence we've not got (much) further down to go.

So keep up the good work folks and maybe in another couple of weeks if this carries on I'll be ready for 'all in'* again

In the meantime here are the latest from my favourite table and chart:





On the former I'm liking even on a reasonable volume day gox is not commanding much more than 30% of the trade.  On the latter I'm liking this week's USD volume to date is already equal to last week's.  I'm guessing last week will have been the bottom for volume for some time.

L8r

*within reason

[ShroomsKit]

You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

Did it occur to you you made ridiculous claims and were wrong 3 times in a row. How the hell is it possible you completely ignore this and just go on with your claims while its clear you know absolute shit all?
How does one do that? Don't you feel even a little bit stupid? Is there nothing inside you that says maybe i should stop acting like i know what Bitcoin will do because i don't? Don't you have any shame whatsoever?

He made millions the 1 time he was right and lost only 10cents the other hundred times.

Obviously. Just like Rampion. Totally wrong with his claims but "everything is going according to plan and i made money".

[cedivad]

Now the question will be:
What kind of rally can be triggered from an exchange that is paying maybe 10% of the withdraws?
Why do people keep having trust in it?

[ElectricMucus]

ShroomsKit is kind of cute.

[N12]

ShroomsKit is kind of cute.

He sure is. His entire purpose in this forum is getting pissed at me.

Honest question Shroom, have you traded at all, as in buying and selling?

[ChartBuddy]

[thoughtfan]

Now the question will be:
What kind of rally can be triggered from an exchange that is paying maybe 10% of the withdraws?
Why do people keep having trust in it?

Ah, and this is another reason for my not jumping back in yet.  That's a story I've not been following closely.  Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?  There was a thread that was suggesting gox has been spending depositors' money and doesn't have funds to pay out all withdrawals.  Is this generally considered to be conspiracy theory type paranoia or is there a reasonable chance gox could be in trouble?  Even though I'm using local trades for purchasing for some time because of potential impact on price I'd rather be more confident on this one too prior to putting a chunk more money into bitcoin.

[N12]

Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?

To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.

There was a thread that was suggesting gox has been spending depositors' money and doesn't have funds to pay out all withdrawals.  Is this generally considered to be conspiracy theory type paranoia or is there a reasonable chance gox could be in trouble?

I doubt it, personally I trust MtGox the most, but that's just me. From what I gathered, it's banks hesitant dealing with MtGox that's the trouble.

[notme]

Now the question will be:
What kind of rally can be triggered from an exchange that is paying maybe 10% of the withdraws?
Why do people keep having trust in it?

It turns out buying bitcoins makes it easier to withdrawal .

[cedivad]

Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?

To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.

What about this thread?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.400
There are more of the same tone in the category.

I still don't understand why the spread is little if the problem exist, but it could be for several reasons.

We will see, I personally have time.

[thoughtfan]

Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?

To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.

Thanks Blitz.  I was guessing from the percentage differences (look at today's 9-11%+ on my earlier post) that there is significant delay making arbing impractical.  However, that is of lesser concern to me than the risk this may be an indication of gox potentially in big trouble.  What's word-on-the-street about that?

Edit:  just seen your post and link cedivad, thanks

[notme]

Is the withdrawal problem still not resolved at gox?

To answer this, I would simply look at the spread between MtGox and other exchanges (Bitstamp in particular), which has been around 8% the past few days, so most probably no, regardless of what people may say. Nothing is being arbitraged in any significance here.

Thanks Blitz.  I was guessing from the percentage differences (look at today's 9-11%+ on my earlier post) that there is significant delay making arbing impractical.  However, that is of lesser concern to me than the risk this may be an indication of gox potentially in big trouble.  What's word-on-the-street about that?

Some streets claim the sky is falling.  Some streets claim they will rape your cat.  Some streets claim they got withdrawals without issue and have provided screenshots to quell the mob.  Personally, I'm not worried.  But then again, I have no need to withdrawal fiat from Gox since all my trading on their platform is attempting to make btc profit.

[N12]

If you trust Mark Karpeles, I have it from him that the banks are hesitant of dealing with MtGox because of the legal crap (Dwolla, etc.) Currently they're processing 1.2 million USD per week because their small bank (which is a new one) limits them, but there's a backlog and it's been growing, so unless they get new banks in due time, it will take a while until it begins decreasing and it's worked off.

I don't believe MtGox are scammers and judging from the fact that the other exchanges do follow MtGox's movements, apparently neither does the market. Everyone needs to judge on his own though.

[hlynur]

You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

Did it occur to you you made ridiculous claims and were wrong 3 times in a row. How the hell is it possible you completely ignore this and just go on with your claims while its clear you know absolute shit all?
How does one do that? Don't you feel even a little bit stupid? Is there nothing inside you that says maybe i should stop acting like i know what Bitcoin will do because i don't? Don't you have any shame whatsoever?

i don't want to take side in whatever you two have going on.
but everytime Blitz is posting i expect a quote from you just because i got used to it.
the hero member status is by no means a badge for complete reliability, but it's good to see the perspective of people that are around this place for such a long time.
When I read through your post history with the ongoing fixation on Blitz and take the time in consideration you registered here...

after all this is a speculation thread so you don't have to take every word with a grain of salt.

[notme]

You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

Did it occur to you you made ridiculous claims and were wrong 3 times in a row. How the hell is it possible you completely ignore this and just go on with your claims while its clear you know absolute shit all?
How does one do that? Don't you feel even a little bit stupid? Is there nothing inside you that says maybe i should stop acting like i know what Bitcoin will do because i don't? Don't you have any shame whatsoever?

i don't want to take side in whatever you two have going on.
but everytime Blitz is posting i expect a quote from you just because i got used to it.
the hero member status is by no means a badge for complete reliability, but it's good to see the perspective of people that are around this place for such a long time.
When I read through your post history with the ongoing fixation on Blitz and take the time in consideration you registered here...

after all this is a speculation thread so you don't have to take every word with a grain of salt.

ShroomsKit has been upset lately.  I hope whatever is bothering him gets better.

[thoughtfan]

If you trust Mark Karpeles, I have it from him that the banks are hesitant of dealing with MtGox because of the legal crap (Dwolla, etc.) Currently they're processing 1.2 million USD per week because their small bank (which is a new one) limits them, but there's a backlog and it's been growing, so unless they get new banks in due time, it will take a while until it begins decreasing and it's worked off.

I don't believe MtGox are scammers and judging from the fact that the other exchanges do follow MtGox's movements, apparently neither does the market. Everyone needs to judge on his own though.

Thanks Blitz (& notme) for your assessment of the situation.  Needless to say my own assessment of the risk is what will have to count with my own decision as to whether and when to come back in but I do appreciate the heads up for those who have been following more closely so that my decision can be that bit more informed

Edit: oh and look, my 'Activity'* score is equal to BTC's ATH

* whatever 'activity' actually means - I don't think I can be bothered to find out but I guess it's an algorithm that helps active newcomers catch up quicker with lazier old-timers or medium-timers such as me

[notme]

I mentioned earlier it took 15 full days for my deposit to hit Gox, which made me shit myself as it was a large amount and i realised they could scam me or they could collapse at any time and i'd be totally screwed. But in their defence my bank did contact the Japanese bank to trace the funds and the reply i got back from my bank is that the funds had been credited to the account on the 25th, which was the day that Gox credited my account. So it may well be true that their bank is the one screwing them over, my banks said 3 business days to arrive but it took 11 business days for them to credit the account so I have no idea what is up with that, it's a corporate bank you'd think they could do better than 11 days.

And people wonder why bitcoin is valuable .

[ElectricMucus]

I mentioned earlier it took 15 full days for my deposit to hit Gox, which made me shit myself as it was a large amount and i realised they could scam me or they could collapse at any time and i'd be totally screwed. But in their defence my bank did contact the Japanese bank to trace the funds and the reply i got back from my bank is that the funds had been credited to the account on the 25th, which was the day that Gox credited my account. So it may well be true that their bank is the one screwing them over, my banks said 3 business days to arrive but it took 11 business days for them to credit the account so I have no idea what is up with that, it's a corporate bank you'd think they could do better than 11 days.

And people wonder why bitcoin is valuable .

As long as the value is expressed as a USD figure it's doubt not wonder for me.

[solex]

The hash rate is going mental but this does not seem to bother the fx rate. I suspect that the next halving will occur mid-2016 instead of end-2016, and this acceleration is already priced in by the market.

Blocks Mined   200.00
Time Between Blocks   7.20 (minutes)
Bitcoins Mined   5,000 BTC
Difficulty   31,256,960.73
Hash Rate   310,758.39 GH/s
https://blockchain.info/stats

[ShroomsKit]

You should probably let go, it's not good for ones health to be passive aggressive all the time. If you think it's not possible to profitably trade in the longer term (ie have an edge), I'm not sure why you're so drawn to speculation at all.

Noone's claimed he's a Cassandra. Trading is a game of probability combined with your profit/loss on each trade. Believe it or not, you can be wrong most of the time and still make money.

Did it occur to you you made ridiculous claims and were wrong 3 times in a row. How the hell is it possible you completely ignore this and just go on with your claims while its clear you know absolute shit all?
How does one do that? Don't you feel even a little bit stupid? Is there nothing inside you that says maybe i should stop acting like i know what Bitcoin will do because i don't? Don't you have any shame whatsoever?

i don't want to take side in whatever you two have going on.
but everytime Blitz is posting i expect a quote from you just because i got used to it.
the hero member status is by no means a badge for complete reliability, but it's good to see the perspective of people that are around this place for such a long time.
When I read through your post history with the ongoing fixation on Blitz and take the time in consideration you registered here...

after all this is a speculation thread so you don't have to take every word with a grain of salt.

He is a moderator. Which is crazy. He has no place on this forum as mod.