Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[1714212174]

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[1714212174]

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[Voodah]

So, is this a proper breakout over 100 or just another temporary blip before the next plunge?

If 100 doesn't hold, it will be interesting to see if we fall back to above or below 90 (EDIT: changed from Bitstamp value!). If it does hold, it could mean we are entering a bull market.

I'm standing by my bet of us still being in a bear market for a few more months yet, but I'm finding it hard to predict where it is going to go currently. Perhaps that is because we are getting close to the bottom (or have passed it!  )?


EDIT: BTW, take a look at the chart from mid-June. 100 was a support for two rallies which failed to breach 115. 115 was the support level for much of May.

The RSI is also not looking good at all there.

[joesmoe2012]

Has bitcointalk been going really slow for anybody the last couple days? I'm not sure if it's the internet i'm using (i'm on a trip) or if its the forum itself...?

[oda.krell]

@adamstgBit, vokain

I'm a bit late, previous post on this topic already two pages behind us, but I'd like to add one remark about the Accumulation/Distribution indicator and what to gather from it.

I would be very careful looking at it in absolute terms. It's almost useless in that respect, in my opinion. So looking at the difference in absolute value between bit and mtg doesn't say much, other than (as chodpaba already said) that historically, volume was higher on mtg and thus the absolute value of A/D is higher.

Similarly for absolute peaks and absolute lows of A/D. I don't think they can be really used for predicting anything.

What I find somewhat useful is to contrast A/D with it's volume-based brethren PVT and OBV, that are all, in one way or another, trying to estimate the "actual" capital entering/leaving the market, as opposed to the relatively uninformative market cap method of multiplying coins with current price.

The difference, in my understanding, between PVT and OBV on the one hand, and CMF, A/D on the other is that the former are closer to an attempt to estimate the net volume *in* the market, while the latter is more concerned with a series of *trends* of how money enters/leaves the market.

The obvious example is that the way CMF and A/D (basically the cumulative version of CMF) are calculated, they can be *positive* even if closing price is lower than opening price for a given period, as long as the closing price is above the middle point of high and low of that period.

That might look like a problem (one which PVT and OBV don't have, btw), and it also seems to be common to file it under "criticism" of the method, but I see it slightly differently: it's a way to combine minor, individual price/volume trends as a series, to get a feeling if the market is more "optimistic" or rather "pessimistic".

Sorry for the vague terminology :/ It's simply that I can't describe it much better right now. The way I interpret the A/D graphs I posted is that we're in a phase of (mild) consolidation/optimism after the last long slide down, and that the optimism/buying pressure is somewhat greater on bit than on mtg, because of the rate at which A/D is growing currently on bit vs. its (near) stagnation on mtg.

Which to me becomes *really* surprising considering that we would expect selling pressure to dominate bit, given the "buy on mtg, sell on bit, to escape the mtg fiat trap" hypothesis that most people on here seem to follow.

[gog1]

Someone posted a graph that shows total bid / total ask on mtgox over time, interested to see that. 

[ShroomsKit]

i have received a rather large box addressed to "Mr.Bitcoin" 

price will rise sharply soon!

How many business days is it now to 180?

You are not in a position to make fun of people's predictions. Believe me.

[ChartBuddy]

[Voodah]

Has bitcointalk been going really slow for anybody the last couple days? I'm not sure if it's the internet i'm using (i'm on a trip) or if its the forum itself...?

the forum

Forum's slow for me too.

Are there site traffic stats anywhere?

[joesmoe2012]

Has bitcointalk been going really slow for anybody the last couple days? I'm not sure if it's the internet i'm using (i'm on a trip) or if its the forum itself...?

the forum

Forum's slow for me too.

Are there site traffic stats anywhere?

Sure here ya are:

Gox Withdraw: 2 weeks - 3 months.
Bitcointalk: 2-3 seconds a page.

[ChartBuddy]

[Chalkbot]

Are there site traffic stats anywhere?

Sure here ya are:

Gox Withdraw: 2 weeks - 3 months.
Bitcointalk: 2-3 seconds a page.

lol, can you make some charts?

[joesmoe2012]

Are there site traffic stats anywhere?

Sure here ya are:

Gox Withdraw: 2 weeks - 3 months.
Bitcointalk: 2-3 seconds a page.

lol, can you make some charts?

Sorry my chart sending abilities are temporarily on haitus, maybe next year i'll send them over.

[Voodah]

Are there site traffic stats anywhere?

Sure here ya are:

Gox Withdraw: 2 weeks - 3 months.
Bitcointalk: 2-3 seconds a page.

lol, can you make some charts?

Sorry my chart sending abilities are temporarily on haitus, maybe next year i'll send them over.

so... umm.. "in 2 weeks"??

[thezerg]

Sorry for an on-topic posting  , but anyone track the 3000 GoxUSD bid wall that's on $100?  When was it put up, has it been touched, etc?

Also, anyone care to speculate on the CampBX/bitstamp inversion?  That is, normally CBX is closer to gox, but now bitstamp is closer.

[humanitee]

Sorry for an on-topic posting  , but anyone track the 3000 GoxUSD bid wall that's on $100?  When was it put up, has it been touched, etc?

Also, anyone care to speculate on the CampBX/bitstamp inversion?  That is, normally CBX is closer to gox, but now bitstamp is closer.

Easiest way to tell is to go to Bitcoinity and put it on the 3 day or 24h timescale. See if the line nudges up to $100 for some period of time.

The answer to your question though, is no. It was put up July 29th ~8:00 AM IIRC.

[Its About Sharing]

Sorry for an on-topic posting  , but anyone track the 3000 GoxUSD bid wall that's on $100?  When was it put up, has it been touched, etc?

Also, anyone care to speculate on the CampBX/bitstamp inversion?  That is, normally CBX is closer to gox, but now bitstamp is closer.

Don't know about CampBX but Gox is now sitting above support (technical and psychological). The longer we are there the more Bitstamps price will creep up, because people know we can pop. So, that premium for withdrawals will evaporate as we move up from 100 imo.

[Ray Anastasio]

Sorry for an on-topic posting  , but anyone track the 3000 GoxUSD bid wall that's on $100?  When was it put up, has it been touched, etc?

Also, anyone care to speculate on the CampBX/bitstamp inversion?  That is, normally CBX is closer to gox, but now bitstamp is closer.

Don't know about CampBX but Gox is now sitting above support (technical and psychological). The longer we are there the more Bitstamps price will creep up, because people know we can pop. So, that premium for withdrawals will evaporate as we move up from 100 imo.

Yeah, campbx is a small exchange and someone has been slowly dumping lots of coins ( in terms of campbx volume) by continuously setting sell orders until they fill, then rinse and repeat.   They are using flat dollar amounts, 93.0, 94.0, 95.0

[adamstgBit]

Sorry for an on-topic posting  , but anyone track the 3000 GoxUSD bid wall that's on $100?  When was it put up, has it been touched, etc?

Also, anyone care to speculate on the CampBX/bitstamp inversion?  That is, normally CBX is closer to gox, but now bitstamp is closer.

Don't know about CampBX but Gox is now sitting above support (technical and psychological). The longer we are there the more Bitstamps price will creep up, because people know we can pop. So, that premium for withdrawals will evaporate as we move up from 100 imo.

Yeah, campbx is a small exchange and someone has been slowly dumping lots of coins ( in terms of campbx volume) by continuously setting sell orders until they fill, then rinse and repeat.   They are using flat dollar amounts, 93.0, 94.0, 95.0

more or less the same thing is happening at cavirtex, its as if people are scared about MtGox price, they think its artificial so instead of letting the exchange rate catch up, they are keeping the price low and slowly selling off. they have no reason to take DUMPS as MtGox and Stamps are still both a few % points higher. A good buying opportunity if you ask me, Time is running out tho, price and volume is rising, the wall holding us back has just now been bitten into.

seller are probably selling low like this because they think mtgox price will drop again, and they will forsure be able to buy lower. Most people sell at the bottom, its up to you to take advantage of that fact.

[Its About Sharing]

Sorry for an on-topic posting  , but anyone track the 3000 GoxUSD bid wall that's on $100?  When was it put up, has it been touched, etc?

Also, anyone care to speculate on the CampBX/bitstamp inversion?  That is, normally CBX is closer to gox, but now bitstamp is closer.

Don't know about CampBX but Gox is now sitting above support (technical and psychological). The longer we are there the more Bitstamps price will creep up, because people know we can pop. So, that premium for withdrawals will evaporate as we move up from 100 imo.

Yeah, campbx is a small exchange and someone has been slowly dumping lots of coins ( in terms of campbx volume) by continuously setting sell orders until they fill, then rinse and repeat.   They are using flat dollar amounts, 93.0, 94.0, 95.0

more or less the same thing is happening at cavirtex, its as if people are scared about MtGox price, they think its artificial so instead of letting the exchange rate catch up, they are keeping the price low and slowly selling off. they have no reason to take DUMPS as MtGox and Stamps are still both a few % points higher. A good buying opportunity if you ask me, Time is running out tho, price and volume is rising, the wall holding us back has just now been bitten into.

seller are probably selling low like this because they think mtgox price will drop again, and they will forsure be able to buy lower. Most people sell at the bottom, its up to you to take advantage of that fact.

You hit one point that has really caught my attention. The volume and not only the volume, but the block sizes. VERY big players brought us here. Are they taking us to support to just drop us off or go higher? I don't know, I guess either is possible. But big money would probably not be smart to do the former.

When large money really starts to move in, listen. Be careful, but listen. I'm trying to do both.

As it was brought to my attention, look at the weekly and monthly charts, both quite bullish.

[bitcodo]

What volume? Bitstamp's? Not going down much.

Gox's? Volume so you can take your bitcoins out? Still down a lot.