Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Cconvert2G36]

Eeek, BJA may be right. 

http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/judge_approves_record_688m_attorney_fees_in_enron_securities_case/

[JayJuanGee]

When are the next big BTC auctions? I can't wait for this crash Gonna be lovely. A beautiful disaster. We could see a floor sub $200 again.

This is the last one for the US gov. The Australian gov has 20k something coins to sell though.

The big dagger hanging over our heads is really the 200k gox coins that need to be sold or returned to the victims. I'm sure a percentage of those people will be market selling and dusting their hands of the whole thing.

I'm sure, and maybe you are to, that you are speculating beyond any reasonable basis in reality.


It makes little to no sense to assume that once the 200k gox coins are liberated back into the bitcoin space (in other words put back on the btc market in the hands of various individuals that those individuals are going to, enmasse, decide to dump the  coins, or a large majority of the coins).

Your prediction makes little to no sense, if it were to employ actual logic and a morsel of thinking. 

Ah, you missed this qualifier. Easy enough to do, I won't hold it against ya.

I didn't miss your qualification, and I stand by my earlier comments.

On the other hand, I will concede that my use of the descriptor "enmasse, decide to dump the  coins, or a large majority of the coins"  does seem to imply that you may have described the situation accordingly, which literally you did NOT.  You only left some vague impression that gives more mystery to the Gox situation than it deserves (is that also referred to as FUD spreading?) 

In any event, I will continue to assert that your earlier post provides too much ambiguity and gives too much significance (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) to the potential ("percentage") impact of those 200k gox coins going back to private hands.

[!! pop]

That takes time and lawyers get paid what? $500/HR?

200k BTC @ $290 = Roughly 15,000 (8hr.) days of $500/hr. lawyer. Or 150 days' worth of a 100-lawyer team.
Though if we delegate some menial work to paralegals (who charge a bit less than $500/hr.), we could probably get a team of 1,000 to work for about a year's worth of 8hr days (before the money's all spent).
!! pop is not a real businessman, lawyer, or mathematician. If he was, he wouldn't be here.
Keep away from small children/open flames.
For educational/recreational use only.
Discard if past due date.
Trust no one.

[JayJuanGee]

are we rich yet??  

Maybe NOT rich, but we are in a hell-of-a-lot better position than we were a few weeks ago.

But we will be rich my dear friend

As long as we HODL and we do NOT sell too soon or too many.

[Cconvert2G36]

That takes time and lawyers get paid what? $500/HR?

200k BTC @ $290 = Roughly 15,000 (8hr.) days of $500/hr. lawyer. Or 150 days' worth of a 100-lawyer team.
Though if we delegate some menial work to paralegals (who charge a bit less than $500/hr.), we could probably get a team of 1,000 to work for about a year's worth of 8hr days (before the money's all spent).
!! pop is not a real businessman, lawyer, or mathematician. If he was, he wouldn't be here.
Keep away from small children/open flames.
For educational/recreational use only.
Discard if past due date.
Trust no one.

We might have an issue with the bolded part.

[JayJuanGee]

When are the next big BTC auctions? I can't wait for this crash Gonna be lovely. A beautiful disaster. We could see a floor sub $200 again.

This is the last one for the US gov. The Australian gov has 20k something coins to sell though.

The big dagger hanging over our heads is really the 200k gox coins that need to be sold or returned to the victims. I'm sure a percentage of those people will be market selling and dusting their hands of the whole thing.

I'm sure, and maybe you are to, that you are speculating beyond any reasonable basis in reality.


It makes little to no sense to assume that once the 200k gox coins are liberated back into the bitcoin space (in other words put back on the btc market in the hands of various individuals that those individuals are going to, enmasse, decide to dump the  coins, or a large majority of the coins).

Your prediction makes little to no sense, if it were to employ actual logic and a morsel of thinking. 

Don't you know how bankruptcies work? The lawyers get paid FIRST. There is very little other than those coins to distribute. Creditors and claimants will get almost nothing. Those coins will be SOLD almost entirely to pay the lawyers.

I will concede that paying of various fees (such as legal fees) could potentially cause scenarios in which the coins could get dumped in fairly large volumes - it is by NO means certain, and at this time, likely there is NO real utility to speculate in grandiose ways regarding what exactly is going to happen to those coins when they are returned to private hands. 

[Cconvert2G36]

I will concede that paying of various fees (such as legal fees) could potentially cause scenarios in which the coins could get dumped in fairly large volumes - it is by NO means certain, and at this time, likely there is NO real utility to speculate in grandiose ways regarding what exactly is going to happen to those coins when they are returned to private hands. 

Heaven help us if we dare to speculate on things related to the value of bitcoin... in the confines of these fora. 

[bobabouey2]

Eeek, BJA may be right. 

http://www.abajournal.com/news/article/judge_approves_record_688m_attorney_fees_in_enron_securities_case/

Small potatoes.  Lehman's expenses were over $2.2 billion.   http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/13/news/companies/lehman-bankruptcy-fees/

[JayJuanGee]

I will concede that paying of various fees (such as legal fees) could potentially cause scenarios in which the coins could get dumped in fairly large volumes - it is by NO means certain, and at this time, likely there is NO real utility to speculate in grandiose ways regarding what exactly is going to happen to those coins when they are returned to private hands. 

Heaven help us if we dare to speculate on things related to the value of bitcoin... in the confines of these fora. 

That's a smart ass response.

Each of us knows that there is nothing wrong with speculation when there is some reasonable basis for the speculation or even if a poster were to describe how s/he arrives at such assertion(s).

[!! pop]

I will concede that paying of various fees (such as legal fees) could potentially cause scenarios in which the coins could get dumped in fairly large volumes - it is by NO means certain, and at this time, likely there is NO real utility to speculate in grandiose ways regarding what exactly is going to happen to those coins when they are returned to private hands. 

Heaven help us if we dare to speculate on things related to the value of bitcoin... in the confines of these fora. 

*these here foræ

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I will concede that paying of various fees (such as legal fees) could potentially cause scenarios in which the coins could get dumped in fairly large volumes - it is by NO means certain, and at this time, likely there is NO real utility to speculate in grandiose ways regarding what exactly is going to happen to those coins when they are returned to private hands. 

investing/speculating is like gambling. You calculate odds and you asses risk.  If a card had a 35% chance of winning you $100, then you pay up to $35 to see that next card and no more.

if there is a >50% chance that >50% of 200,000 coins get dumped on a market, then  we can price that in as a minimum of 14 days worth of mined coins extra supply.  It's like delaying the halving for a month.

[Cconvert2G36]

I will concede that paying of various fees (such as legal fees) could potentially cause scenarios in which the coins could get dumped in fairly large volumes - it is by NO means certain, and at this time, likely there is NO real utility to speculate in grandiose ways regarding what exactly is going to happen to those coins when they are returned to private hands. 

Heaven help us if we dare to speculate on things related to the value of bitcoin... in the confines of these fora. 

That's a smart ass response.

Each of us knows that there is nothing wrong with speculation when there is some reasonable basis for the speculation or even if a poster were to describe how s/he arrives at such assertion(s).

I will endeavor NOT to reply in kind to your insult.

You've recently discovered the virtue of brevity, and for that, I'm thankful. That said, are you to decide what is reasonable? No? Could you suggest someone? I'm just speculating, and have had some responses, kinda the goal here.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

The MtGOX bankruptcy trustee has been publishing his status reports, including expenses, at www.mtgox.com.  The PDF documents are in Japanese, but there is usually a good (but non-official) English translation at the end of each document. 

I would guess that he and the various experts will be quite happy with their fees, but even so the majority of the money and bitcoins that are left will be distributed.

As others have pointed out, the total claims filed by the victims far exceed what MtGOX ever held.  The original deadline for validating the claims has been postponed; the new date is somewhere in that website.

The trustee is still trying to recover money that Mark loaned to himself and his other companies.  He has requested their forced bankruptcy.  I don't expect there will be much juice left in those lemons, though.

The ~200'000 BTC are still in his possession. AFAIK he has not decided yet whether they will be distributed as BTC, or auctioned and distributed as JPY. (I suppose that Mark's $40'000 bed will be auctioned too, eventually.)

I think that the Enron bankruptcy was *much* more complicated than MtGOX's, because the company was much bigger and more diversified, with dozens of subsidiaries (and complicated fraudulent businesses between them).  So I expect that the legal and consultant fees for MtGOX will be a lot less than the 700 M$ of Enron's bankruptcy.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[medialab101]

10K coins added to the ask wall on Finex.

[Cconvert2G36]

10K coins added to the ask wall on Finex.

A new bearwhale emerges.

[dropt]

10K coins added to the ask wall on Finex.

A new bearwhale emerges.

Mr. Accumulator wants your coins, but he wants them for <300.  I bet if someone took a run at that ask wall it'd be pulled mighty quickly.

[ChartBuddy]

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