Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[natewelt]

Never thought becoming a HODLER would be such a rewarding experience.

The 1 year chart looks incredible. I love it

Because you only lost $20/BTC since a year ago? I mean, sure, it's a helovalot less than you lost the year before, but still...

You can always adjust your time horizon to support your argument. I could also say it has gone up about 140% since its bottom in January.

As a HODLER and a believer in the Bitcoin ecosystem...I have continuously bought a couple coins here and there if and only if it brought my average down. This has proven to be a profitable strategy.

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[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Richy_T]

Two years ago today when we crossed into 1k territory. Unfortunately, as we were later to find out, that was 1k GoxBux

I believe we're starting to see some more flakiness from the Gox server here returning old data. The cause of this was never really addressed but I have my suspicions that the Gox order book was almost entirely imaginary.

[ImI]

In memoriam of Willy.

[conspirosphere.tk]

the network still seems to be doing okay -- although it likely will reach a point where it won't relatively soon.

economics is all about TANSTAAFL. So just let the free fee market do its magic.

[natewelt]

Never thought becoming a HODLER would be such a rewarding experience.

The 1 year chart looks incredible. I love it

Because you only lost $20/BTC since a year ago? I mean, sure, it's a helovalot less than you lost the year before, but still...

You can always adjust your time horizon to support your argument. I could also say it has gone up about 140% since its bottom in January.

As a HODLER and a believer in the Bitcoin ecosystem...I have continuously bought a couple coins here and there if and only if it brought my average down. This has proven to be a profitable strategy.

If the "bottom in January" was a year ago, you'd have am excellent point, and I'd be dead wrong. Wait til the middle of Jan. 2016, and, if BTC price is above 166, you get a fist bump

Sounds like a deal. I'm pretty confident we will be well above 166 in January, but you never know with Bitcoin. HODL only works if the price tends to rise in the long run.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[readysalted89]

Two years ago today when we crossed into 1k territory. Unfortunately, as we were later to find out, that was 1k GoxBux

I believe we're starting to see some more flakiness from the Gox server here returning old data. The cause of this was never really addressed but I have my suspicions that the Gox order book was almost entirely imaginary.

I remember Gox used to snottily claim it had its own custom wallet software, and didn't use the bog standard wallets everyone else used. Its statements gave the impression that flakiness from the Gox server was impossible due to its superior technology and genius developers. Considering it had its own superior custom wallet software it's funny how it lost 200k coins in an old "forgotten" wallet.

[mixan]

price going to dump soon

It is happening already and I thought it would be soon the trading day for it to go down. Was $357 last I checked around ten minutes ago thought it broke 360 barely two hours ago. Up to $366 and down to almost $10 is not very promising end of the month tally.

[natewelt]

price going to dump soon

It is happening already and I thought it would be soon the trading day for it to go down. Was $357 last I checked around ten minutes ago thought it broke 360 barely two hours ago. Up to $366 and down to almost $10 is not very promising end of the month tally.

Yes, we are crashing uncontrollably. Except...we aren't.

Zoom out a little bit on your charts and stop trying to be cute with little moves. Look at the pattern, not the pattern within the pattern, within the pattern.

[Cconvert2G36]

price going to dump soon

It is happening already and I thought it would be soon the trading day for it to go down. Was $357 last I checked around ten minutes ago thought it broke 360 barely two hours ago. Up to $366 and down to almost $10 is not very promising end of the month tally.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[r0ach]

The big surge in volume is in the Chinese exchanges, especially Huobi and OKCoin.  

This is wrong.  Bitfinex was leading price the majority of the time in the rise.  This is not a China pump, China just also wants to go up.

Two years ago today when we crossed into 1k territory. Unfortunately, as we were later to find out, that was 1k GoxBux

Since nobody seems to know how many Bitcoins Gox actually had, it's still possible that instead of pumping, Gox might instead have had a negative effect on the market by selling more coins than they owned (shorting).  Yea, they're buying and selling with customer funds, but that doesn't mean they're pumping if they have 600k coins in liability on the books and only had 200k coins.  They would be naked shorting like Blythe Masters and silver.  I haven't really seen any good summary of Gox liabilities vs assets over time, but if there's always more liabilities than assets, they're doing internal naked shorts!

If Gox coins were actually stolen, and the thief dumped his coins while Gox is increasing sell side liquidity with coins they don't even have, then you have even more shorting!  In other words, nobody knows what the hell kind of influence Gox had on the market.

[Cconvert2G36]

Two years ago today when we crossed into 1k territory. Unfortunately, as we were later to find out, that was 1k GoxBux

Since nobody seems to know how many Bitcoins Gox actually had, it's still possible that instead of pumping, Gox might instead have had a negative effect on the market by selling more coins than they owned (shorting).  Yea, they're buying and selling with customer funds, but that doesn't mean they're pumping if they have 600k coins in liability on the books and only had 200k coins.  They would be naked shorting like Blythe Masters and silver.  I haven't really seen any good summary of Gox liabilities vs assets over time, but if there's always more liabilities than assets, they're naked shorting!

Think it through again champ. Mark was missing 600k btc. Closed banking channels meant that no one could withdraw via wire transfer, but they could withdraw btc. He was buying real btc with fake and/or customer money to keep btc withdrawals working. This having a negative effect on exchange rate is ridiculous... until the scam came crashing down of course.

[r0ach]

Think it through again champ. Mark was missing 600k btc. Closed banking channels meant that no one could withdraw via wire transfer, but they could withdraw btc. He was buying real btc with fake and/or customer money to keep btc withdrawals working. This having a negative effect on exchange rate is ridiculous... until the scam came crashing down of course.

If Gox coins really were stolen, and the thief dumped coins for cash, then how is Karpeles pumping by buying a smaller amount of coins with customer funds to enable withdrawal?  It would be a wash or probably negative movement from him not buying as many as were stolen.  The only way Karpeles is pumping in that scenario is if the "thief" didn't sell any.  Who would steal $200 million dollars in goods and not sell any?

One of the few pump situations is if Karpeles stole the coins himself, hid them, didn't spend any, then uses customer funds to fund withdrawal with the intent of letting the business collapse and run off with the hidden coins later.  Gox is a mystery to me because he was already making lots of money and doing something like that would be lots of risk for not much of a lifestyle improvement over what you already have.  He could already buy gold toilets.

There's also always the chance a govt entity shows up making threats or saying they'll set him up for prison time if he doesn't help them get control of the keys or implode the market.

[Cconvert2G36]

Think it through again champ. Mark was missing 600k btc. Closed banking channels meant that no one could withdraw via wire transfer, but they could withdraw btc. He was buying real btc with fake and/or customer money to keep btc withdrawals working. This having a negative effect on exchange rate is ridiculous... until the scam came crashing down of course.

If Gox coins really were stolen, and the thief dumped coins for cash, then how is Karpeles pumping by buying a smaller amount of coins with customer funds to enable withdrawal?  It would be a wash or probably negative movement from him not buying as many as were stolen.  The only way Karpeles is pumping in that scenario is if the "thief" didn't sell any.  Who would steal $200 million dollars in goods and not sell any?

We have no idea really when the theft occurred, it could have happened as early as 2011. It could have been liquidated at much lower prices. One thing we know for sure, a criminal clever enough to waltz off with 100's of thousands of btc, would not be trying to sell them on mtgox in the late 2013 bubble when there was no way to get the fiat out.

[JayJuanGee]

Think it through again champ. Mark was missing 600k btc. Closed banking channels meant that no one could withdraw via wire transfer, but they could withdraw btc. He was buying real btc with fake and/or customer money to keep btc withdrawals working. This having a negative effect on exchange rate is ridiculous... until the scam came crashing down of course.

If Gox coins really were stolen, and the thief dumped coins for cash, then how is Karpeles pumping by buying a smaller amount of coins with customer funds to enable withdrawal?  It would be a wash or probably negative movement from him not buying as many as were stolen.  The only way Karpeles is pumping in that scenario is if the "thief" didn't sell any.  Who would steal $200 million dollars in goods and not sell any?

We have no idea really when the theft occurred, it could have happened as early as 2011. It could have been liquidated at much lower prices. One thing we know for sure, a criminal clever enough to waltz off with 100's of thousands of btc, would not be trying to sell them on mtgox in the late 2013 bubble when there was no way to get the fiat out.

People frequently will assert that Gox shenanigans caused the BTC market to go in one direction or another, yet neither is really clear and unambiguous.

In the end, it appears pretty clear that Gox did increasingly engage in a kind of fractional reserve banking of bitcoins to be trading coins that it did not in fact have in its possession.

So a bot created pumping is one thing to cause the price to go up, but a flooding of the market with non-existing coins, is another thing that causes the real price to go down....

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

PS. About MMM's  Bitcoin Ponzi, a perturbing factor is what MMM will do with the bitcoins that it collects. 

(Ostensibly, the victims send bitcoins directly to each other, and MMM does not touch the bitcoins and does not take commission.  However, it is a safe bet that many of the people asking for donations are actually MMM bosses.)

I doubt that he will want to keep bitcoins for long.  So, after the ponzi collapses, the price may eventually return to the $220 level.

[Cconvert2G36]

Think it through again champ. Mark was missing 600k btc. Closed banking channels meant that no one could withdraw via wire transfer, but they could withdraw btc. He was buying real btc with fake and/or customer money to keep btc withdrawals working. This having a negative effect on exchange rate is ridiculous... until the scam came crashing down of course.

If Gox coins really were stolen, and the thief dumped coins for cash, then how is Karpeles pumping by buying a smaller amount of coins with customer funds to enable withdrawal?  It would be a wash or probably negative movement from him not buying as many as were stolen.  The only way Karpeles is pumping in that scenario is if the "thief" didn't sell any.  Who would steal $200 million dollars in goods and not sell any?

We have no idea really when the theft occurred, it could have happened as early as 2011. It could have been liquidated at much lower prices. One thing we know for sure, a criminal clever enough to waltz off with 100's of thousands of btc, would not be trying to sell them on mtgox in the late 2013 bubble when there was no way to get the fiat out.

People frequently will assert that Gox shenanigans caused the BTC market to go in one direction or another, yet neither is really clear and unambiguous.

I'm not saying Mark's scrambling to stay functional caused ALL of the movement of that rally, China was obviously a factor, their relative effects are difficult to ascertain and quantify.

In the end, it appears pretty clear that Gox did increasingly engage in a kind of fractional reserve banking of bitcoins to be trading coins that it did not in fact have in its possession.

Yes.

So a bot created pumping is one thing to cause the price to go up, but a flooding of the market with non-existing coins, is another thing that causes the real price to go down....

That's the problem, people were withdrawing coins, something that can't be done with "non-existing" coins. Hence, the reason he had to "buy" them at almost any price (and entice people to deposit more coins in the process.)